00:00Few people understand Pakistan better than Sushant Sareen, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, joins me on this special
00:06broadcast.
00:07Sushant, what's happening in Pakistan? You heard Imran Khan's sister, she's quoting Imran Khan saying,
00:13Imran Khan said,
00:16He's being tortured in prison. What is your reading of what Aasem Muneer is doing to Imran Khan?
00:23So, Gohra, I think this is in keeping with the finest traditions of medievalism.
00:28And Pakistan being a medieval kind of a state in its mindset is, you know, this is how opponents were
00:34treated during the medieval ages.
00:36You blinded them, you goad them, you tortured them.
00:39So, if Imran is going through that, I don't think it's big shakes.
00:43Remember, he threatened to do something similar to Nawaz Sharif.
00:47So, this is keeping with the finest traditions.
00:49But in this particular case, I think what it's not clear, because at one point, it looks that there was
00:57some kind of a deal that was being worked out for a variety of reasons,
01:02partly because they wanted to give a jolt to Shabazz Sharif and company.
01:07It's a non-performing government, partly because they wanted some support from Imran Khan for very sweeping constitutional changes that
01:15they are planning to bring about.
01:17And they would want, you know, this imprint that it was by consensus.
01:21So, there was this, this was the grapevine.
01:24Now, was there a deal and a rethink on that particular deal?
01:29Was this Shabazz Sharif and company being kept out of the loop and pushing back?
01:35And can they do it against this particular government?
01:39And there is enough reasons to believe that there was a lot of discomfiture in the government.
01:44Sir, I have come to the deal and whether Shabazz Sharif is being put on notice or was that Asim
01:48Munir's intention.
01:49But staying with Imran Khan for the moment, there were rumors that Imran Khan had either died or was killed
01:56in prison.
01:57Those rumors have been scotched.
01:59That's a win for Asim Munir and the Shabazz Sharif establishment.
02:02But Asim Munir clearly is not buckling under any pressure.
02:07He's not under any pressure from any court or any authority in Pakistan.
02:10He's almost like the monarch of Pakistan.
02:13He paraded Imran Khan but did not take him to Shifa and sent him back to Adialla jail.
02:21Again, it's not very clear whether it was a rethink on part of Asim Munir to send him back to
02:27jail and something he has worked out with Shabazz Sharif and company.
02:30Or it is Shabazz defying whatever deal Asim was making.
02:35And basically, the court does not matter.
02:37You know, you keep harping on Supreme Court of Pakistan.
02:39It's a toothless castrated court.
02:42It's not even supreme anymore.
02:44So, I don't think anybody takes the Supreme Court of Pakistan seriously anymore.
02:49Or it could be just possible.
02:52Again, this is a bit of a long shot.
02:53It is possible that Imran Khan, when he came out and learned about what are the terms and conditions, perhaps
03:00he refused to play ball.
03:01So, we don't know what exactly transpired.
03:04But the fact of the matter remains that Asim Munir, despite and as you very correctly say, there doesn't seem
03:10to be any pressure on him.
03:11And yet, there is pressure because he is feeling insecure.
03:15Why do you think he has got the parliament to rubber stamp?
03:21In one day, the cabinet seats and the parliament passes a law which gives him sweeping powers over all the
03:29three armed forces.
03:30That defense forces of Pakistan act that was passed yesterday by both houses in a matter of minutes gives him
03:39such enormous powers that he can literally sack anybody from the army, give anybody an extension for as long as
03:48somebody wants.
03:48And all that, if there is any difficulty in his path, all that he needs to do is put a
03:55gun to the president's ear and get him to sign on whatever he wants him to do.
03:59Now, why is he getting this done?
04:00Is he insecure about something?
04:02Does he fear that some of the core commanders could rise against him?
04:06A cabal of core commanders could rise?
04:08Or is that not a possibility for Asim Munir at all?
04:12None of the core commanders dare rise against him point one.
04:15And point two, is Imran Khan's goose cooked in Pakistan?
04:21Well, I don't think any…
04:22You should not write of a politician ever.
04:25You know, we've learned from our own experience in India.
04:27Politicians have this very bad habit of bouncing back.
04:31So, I won't rule out Imran Khan.
04:33It looks very difficult as long as Asim Munir is at the helm.
04:37Second, I think you should disabuse yourself of this business of core commanders.
04:42Core commanders are worth nothing to nobody.
04:44They can be taken out like a fly out of, you know, tea and chucked aside.
04:49The problem comes for an army chief when other issues are going out of sync.
04:55When, you know, there are two insurgencies building up, there are murmurs within the army,
05:00it's not that the core commanders are ganging up against him.
05:03But then a time comes when within the army, the voices become so loud
05:09that the position of the army chief becomes untenable, as happened with Musharraf.
05:15University of all he surveyed.
05:17And then suddenly, there was so much of pressure on him
05:20that he was forced to doff his uniform first and then quit from the presidency
05:24because the army said, sorry, we are washing our hands off you
05:27because the army's reputation is going to start suffering.
05:30Now, have we...
05:31But isn't the army's reputation suffering in Pakistan right now?
05:35So, Shantan, I mean, just look at the situation west of Indus.
05:39Whether it's Baluchistan or Khaybar Pakhtoonghua,
05:41the writ of the Pakistan army is virtually not there.
05:45Look at what's happening in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir.
05:47Pakistan army is being abused in Sindh.
05:50Pakistan army dare not cut coroner plots anymore.
05:54Yeah, precisely.
05:56So, there is a mounting sentiment against the Pakistan army and this puppet regime
06:01which they have installed in Pakistan because this is a deeply unpopular regime.
06:06And they have absolutely no connection with the people.
06:10They win elections purely because, you know, they win elections in the traditional way
06:15by rigging those elections.
06:17So, there is...
06:18The economy is not picking up.
06:21And you very correctly say, west of Indus River,
06:24they virtually lost control over that territory.
06:27You know, you look at all the evidence which is coming out from, for example, in Balochistan.
06:33It's only an entonement area that the writ of the state, if at all, there is something like that, which
06:38runs.
06:38Otherwise, it's the BLA which rules the roost in Balochistan.
06:42It is the...
06:43In northern Balochistan and Khaybar Pakhtoonghua,
06:46it is the TTP which is ruling the roost now.
06:49And in POJK, it is the Awami Action Committee,
06:54the Joint Awami Action Committee,
06:55which is actually caught in the shots.
06:57You might have whatever election you've had
06:59and whatever puppets, you know, you have installed out there.
07:03But they're worth nothing to nobody because nobody takes them seriously.
07:06So, look forward to a much longer conversation with you, Sushant.
07:10I've run out of time today.
07:11But the situation in Pakistan, very precarious.
07:14We'll be tracking that closely.
07:16And of course, we leave our viewers with that question.
07:19Will Imran Khan live to fight another day?
07:22Or is his goose cooked in Adhiala Jail, Rawalpindi?
