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North Korea's growing ties with Russia are reshaping the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula. As Seoul seeks peace talks, is Kim Jong Un now negotiating from a position of strength?
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00:00The war between South and North Korea has never officially ended, but 73 years after a truce was declared, South
00:07Korea has offered to start formal negotiations with the North to officially end the war.
00:13Historically, this is a big deal.
00:15We'll get the context from our guest in South Korea in a moment and ask him, Robert Kelly, a question
00:20as important as the news itself.
00:22Why now?
00:24First, let's take a look at the map.
00:26The red line you're about to see is the Demilitarised Zone, or DMZ.
00:30It runs the width of the peninsula and was created in 1953 to stop the fighting and create a buffer
00:36between the Communist North and the Capitalist South.
00:39It was never designed to settle the Korean conflict itself.
00:4373 years later, Seoul and Pyongyang haven't signed a peace treaty and the uneasy armistice remains.
00:49So with that, as the backdrop to this topic, here is the South Korean President Lee Jae-myung.
00:55The man who is aiming to take this very tense relationship in a new direction.
01:03We will embark on a journey to end the war and transform the Korean Peninsula's unstable armistice system into a
01:12peace regime.
01:13Let us set aside mutual threats towards one another and begin discussions among the parties concerned to end this long
01:21-running war.
01:23Through this, effective measures to halt the advancement of the North's nuclear program can also be discussed.
01:35So is Kim Jong-un going to take the olive branch or continue to leverage its relationship with Russia, having
01:41become a nuclear-capable nation, one with growing power in the region and the world?
01:45Let's ask Robert Kelly, Professor of International Relations in Busan, South Korea.
01:50Robert, great to talk to you.
01:51South Korea's President proposing talks with its northern neighbour on officially ending the war between the two.
01:57Is this a moment of genuine significance as it seems?
02:03Well, unless this administration has something up its sleeve that previous ones did not, to be honest, no.
02:10This is something that left liberal administrations, progressive administrations in Korea, the left holds the presidency here now.
02:18This is something that they really want.
02:19This is something we've heard from previous liberal and left progressive presidents in the past.
02:24This idea that we should sort of move beyond the armistice.
02:26There should be some kind of formalization of it or some greater regularization of it as sort of a regime,
02:31a peace regime or a peace treaty or something.
02:32The language is a little vague.
02:34But this is not new.
02:36And so, you know, the guy who was in there three or four years ago before the impeachment, his name
02:41was Moon Jae-in, he tried this too and it didn't work.
02:43So, you know, maybe E.J. Moon has something new.
02:45But we have seen this before unless, you know, some new information comes up.
02:50Right.
02:50So something new.
02:51Looking back into the recent past, Robert, can you identify a runway to this moment?
02:57Was there a clear path to this olive branch being waived?
03:01Why is it being waived now?
03:05Well, I think this is this is the big platform for the South Korean left on foreign policy issues.
03:12Right.
03:12On domestic issues, the South Korean left is kind of social democratic.
03:15It's things like, you know, free school lunches for kids and better funding for education and things like that.
03:19But on foreign policy, the big issue for the South Korean left is some kind of permanent reconciliation with North
03:25Korea.
03:25Right.
03:26Some kind of breakthrough rather than just sort of this indefinite, unending stalemate, which you've had really now for 70
03:32plus years.
03:33Right.
03:33And whereas the South Korean conservatives tend to be hawkish on North Korea and anti-communists and the bad guys
03:37and stuff like that.
03:38And so the South Korean left is always looking for interesting ways to reach out.
03:42It's looking for ways to sort of try to bring North Korea in from the cold.
03:45And so this is again, this is something you see every time they they hold the presidency.
03:49Right.
03:50And often it's sort of framed that the the armistice is the big problem.
03:54Right.
03:54The armistice means the two sides are technically still at war.
03:56And so that's what needs to be overcome.
03:59But I'm not really sure that there's any particular signal from the North that's been sent in the last year
04:04that has sort of prompted this.
04:05I think this is really a fairly common political preference from the South Korean left.
04:10There might also be sort of lurking in the background.
04:13I don't know if we can get to this.
04:14North Korea spiraling nuclear program.
04:17Right.
04:18I mean, the North Korean program is completely unchecked.
04:19It's completely unobserved.
04:21There are no inspectors, no camera.
04:22There's no nothing.
04:23There's no cameras.
04:23There's nothing in there.
04:24You know, we don't really know very much what they have.
04:26We don't know what they're driving towards.
04:28You don't know.
04:28I mean, we don't know a lot.
04:29And so some of this may be a move to try to get the North Koreans to come to the
04:33negotiating table where at least nuclear weapons can be brought in and discussed somewhat so we have some kind of
04:38handle on the program because right now we really don't have any.
04:41So with that, as part of this next question, there is a growing view in Europe that North Korea has
04:47grown in stature via its relationship with Russia, the nuclear component to this discussion.
04:52What's the view from South Korea then?
04:53Do South Koreans perceive the North to be growing in stature economically and politically speaking and with that component militarily
05:03speaking?
05:05Yes.
05:05I think it's widely accepted now, as it is in the West, too, that North Korea's relationship with Russia has
05:11been a real boon for North Korea.
05:13You know, if you're North Korea, ideally what you want is multiple patrons you can play against one another.
05:17Right.
05:17The worst situation is when North Korea only has one country you can go to for aid, China or South
05:22Korea or something like that.
05:23But if you have multiple players, right, if you have the Russians and the Chinese both competing to sort of
05:27like offer you gifts and stuff, you can play them against one another for favors.
05:31And that's where the North Koreans have really sort of gained, I think, a lot in the last few years
05:35with the Ukraine war.
05:36And that's really made an impact here.
05:38Right.
05:38Again, that might be one of the reasons for the for the olive branch now, the perception that North Korea's
05:42got a new sort of lease on life because the Russians are now going to help them, you know, help
05:46bail them out.
05:46Right. Russia's North Korea's economy is not self-sufficient.
05:49Right. It needs external support.
05:50And in the past, that meant China.
05:51But if it now also means Russia, if you're North Korea, that's pretty great.
05:54Right. Because now you have two patrons, you can play them off against each other.
05:57And that's all, you know, for the good for North Korea, for long term stability, for sort of for stalling
06:02the economic crisis that is always lurking below the, you know, below the line.
06:05So North Korea's growing influence, its military with nuclear rolled in there, its nefarious cyber operations, its political clout via
06:15Russia's help to veto sanctions against it, particularly these nuclear sanctions, I guess we're alluding to.
06:22Has the South been forced into this position where they're having to reach out?
06:30Um, yeah, that's a, I don't know if they're quite being strong-armed, but pretty close, yeah.
06:35Um, I mean, the South Korean security position has, I think, eroded in the last 10 years.
06:39Things have gotten worse.
06:40And a lot of that is, well, the big issue is because we don't know what the North Koreans have
06:44in terms of nuclear weapons.
06:45We don't know how many.
06:46We don't know what kind of missiles they're putting on.
06:48We have some, you know, we have the vague outlines.
06:50But that's really it, right?
06:51And they keep building and building and building.
06:53And so we're not really quite sure what they're going for.
06:55We have a vague sense of their doctrine.
06:57You know, they're very, very aggressive when they speak to us.
06:58So I think if you're in South Korea, you're kind of worried.
07:00And then along come the Russians, and they throw over the North Koreans a lifeline.
07:03And we don't know what the Russians are giving to North Koreans either, right?
07:05I mean, this is something that you hear a lot on the conference circuit here.
07:08Like, what exactly are the Russians giving them?
07:10Are they giving them, like, missile tech, re-entry tech?
07:12You know, are they helping them build better engines?
07:14I mean, the North Koreans have all kinds of issues with their missiles, as best we can tell from their
07:17tests.
07:17And that can be the kind of stuff that the North Koreans are asking for in exchange for aid, right?
07:21And we hear these stories that, like, 30,000 or 40,000 North Koreans are now going to march into
07:24Ukraine.
07:25Oh, wow.
07:26I mean, if that's what the North Koreans are giving, you can guarantee that the North Koreans are getting nice
07:30stuff from the Russians.
07:31They don't just want money.
07:33They want help on the missiles and maybe even on the nukes.
07:36I don't know.
07:36It depends how desperate Putin is.
07:37I don't, you know, we don't know what he's giving up.
07:39So the North now has Russia.
07:42Does South Korea, what does South Korea have?
07:44Does South Korea feel that the United States is still a powerful and influential partner as it tries to negotiate
07:52a better outcome here?
07:53Do they have a role to play, a significant role still?
07:57Yeah, that's really tricky because of the, for lack of a better word, the Trumpization of American foreign policy.
08:03I mean, nobody knows what the president's going to do.
08:04You know, he wakes up on Twitter and he says all kinds of stuff.
08:06We just don't really know.
08:08Trump is very, very unreliable, right?
08:10He doesn't really like US allies, right?
08:12You Europeans, you know that, right?
08:13And so, you know, I think Trump has traditionally not particularly thought well of South Koreans in his first term.
08:19He was pretty snippy and unpleasant in his comments.
08:23You know, he hasn't really paid, Trump hasn't paid attention to East Asia much in this term, right?
08:27But, you know, he's been pretty harsh with you guys, the Europeans and stuff.
08:30And so if he ever turns to US allies in Asia, it's not clear to me that Trump will be
08:33any nicer to them out here.
08:35And certainly if you look at public opinion in South Korea, right, American approval has sort of fallen significantly.
08:41People still like the alliance because they realize the alliance is an important backstop, particularly the nuclear American nuclear commitment.
08:47But, I mean, American, the opinion of the United States has fallen here as it has in many, many countries.
08:53And a lot of it is almost certainly the president.
08:56So, and that's one of the reasons why, again, I don't have time for this either.
08:59But that's also been reflected in a growing nuclear debate here in South Korea, right?
09:02Which is that the Americans aren't reliable anymore because they want to elect somebody like Donald Trump.
09:06And so maybe we should have our own nukes.
09:09You know, I mean, Trump just keeps signaling that he's not going to aid US allies, right?
09:14I mean, everybody's watching what he's doing to NATO.
09:16And so, you know, if you're the South Koreans, you're starting to think about like, you know, a post-Trump,
09:20post-American foreign policy.
09:22What's it going to look like if the Americans aren't reliable?
09:24Yeah, it's a really important bit of context.
09:26So we circle back to where we started then.
09:29What is the state of relations between the North and the South?
09:33We've seen loudspeakers and propaganda, trash bags in the recent past.
09:38Right.
09:38What are we expecting in terms of an answer from the North?
09:42Are we expecting an answer from the North?
09:45They'll probably say no.
09:47I hate to sort of be a, you know, throw cold water on this,
09:51but they'll almost certainly say no.
09:52I mean, they gamed it the last time we tried this four years ago.
09:55I'm all for it.
09:56I mean, I hope that E.J.
09:57Myung has got something.
09:58Hopefully the president of South Korea has got something new that we can try that would be fantastic.
10:02I mean, great if we could really have a breakthrough.
10:03But I will say that the previous left progressive president of South Korea really bent over backwards for a breakthrough
10:09in North Korea.
10:10I mean, he basically gambled his entire presidency on it and it didn't work.
10:12So, again, I mean, unless the current president has something really new, something that's really going to sort of change
10:17this,
10:17some new spin, some new offer, some new concession, maybe it's going to pull the North Koreans out.
10:23But the North Korean position is better now than it was five years ago because they can rely on the
10:27Russians, right?
10:27The Russians are giving them help in a way that, you know, wasn't there the last time we went through
10:32this.
10:32So, I mean, South Korea's got a lot of obvious advantages, right?
10:35I mean, its economy is something like 25 times North Korea's economy.
10:37It could give the North Koreans a lot of aid and stuff like that if the North Koreans, you know,
10:42really came through
10:43and sort of were willing to agree to some kind of nuclear neutralization.
10:46South Korea could give them a great deal of resources and engineering and stuff like reforestation.
10:50There's all kinds of ideas out there.
10:52But unless, you know, unless the South Korean government can find a way to sort of like break through traditional
11:00North Korean obstinance
11:02and unwillingness to budge on these core security issues, I just don't know how it's going to happen.
11:07And the North Koreans just have not negotiated with us.
11:10Meaningful, they just haven't really negotiated in good faith on these kinds of questions in a long time.
11:15So, yeah, sorry.
11:17I think that sounds a little like gloomy, but I'm not sure if anything has changed in the last five
11:22years.
11:23Look, we have put a significant amount of cold water on the discussion, Robert, but I think it's due.
11:27I think the final question as we do that, and I think it's a really appropriate way to come at
11:32the topic,
11:32what would the North have to win by entering negotiations?
11:36If you look at it from their point of view and their position in the world as you've laid out,
11:40really eloquently, what would the North have to win by entering negotiations right now?
11:44Do they really need a formal declaration of peace at this point?
11:50So, if you're in North Korea, what you really want out of this is a whole bunch of concessions from
11:53South Korea,
11:54and this is like the big lever for you to get those concessions.
11:57And this is one of the big problems with the armistice or sort of like the peace treaty debate, right,
12:02is that I think neither the South Koreans nor the Americans and the Japanese,
12:05those are the three big relevant parties here.
12:07None of them have really worked through and built political coalitions at home
12:10to make major concessions to North Korea to get a deal.
12:12The North Koreans are not just going to give us this treaty.
12:15They're going to ask for a lot.
12:17They're going to say they want U.S. bases in South Korea closed.
12:20They're going to say they want, you know, like trade, you know, really generous trade benefits.
12:24They're going to ask for a big, great, big pile of cash.
12:27They're going to ask for sanctions rollback.
12:30I mean, the North Koreans are going to ask for a lot.
12:32And it doesn't mean we shouldn't give it to them,
12:34but we need to actually build a political coalition to get that
12:36because for a long, long time, right, we've sort of demonized North Korea, right?
12:39It's the worst country in the world. It's sort of a welly and tyranny.
12:42All that is true.
12:42And then now we're going to go and negotiate with them.
12:44And so if you're going to do that, you've got to find a way to convince publics
12:47that we've been taught for a long, long time that North Korea is pretty terrible.
12:50You've got to find a way to convince them that actually now we're going to make these concessions.
12:53We're going to give the North Koreans, you know, a great big pile of cash,
12:57which they're almost certainly going to ask for, by the way, right?
12:59And we're going to give them a rollback to sanctions.
13:01We're going to give them, we're going to allow them to sort of trade on the luxury market again,
13:04which is something that they really, really want.
13:06And all of that requires a huge political effort because you've got to pull,
13:09particularly South Korean conservatives with you are very hawkish on North Korea.
13:12You've got to pull the Americans with you on this, and the Americans are quite hawkish on North Korea too.
13:16And I just haven't seen any of the political groundwork at all laid to sell a deal.
13:21And that's the big problem, right?
13:24You can't just go on TV and say we've got a deal.
13:26Remember, Trump tried that back in 2018 on Twitter.
13:28You know, oh, I fixed North Korea, you know, on the phone.
13:31I mean, that didn't work at all, right?
13:33It was just, it's just talk, you know, and so it's going to be like a lot of work, right?
13:38President Lee has got to really sell it.
13:40He's got to come up with a list of things that we can give to the North Koreans
13:43that is not going to cause a right-wing revolt here in South Korea.
13:46And I don't, I don't know if he can do that.
13:49You're going to have 40% of the country that's going to think he's a communist
13:51if he just gives stuff away.
13:53You know, I don't know.
13:55I don't know.
13:55I'm just, it's going to be, it's a really, really hard sell.
13:58Robert, it's been a very sobering experience,
14:01but I think a necessary one to break down this topic.
14:04No apologies needed.
14:06All the information is there that we need,
14:07all the context is really important too.
14:09Robert Kelly, Professor of International Relations in Busan in South Korea,
14:13thank you so much.
14:16Thank you for having me.
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