Iran Challenged Ukraine… What Ukraine DID Next Was RUTHLESS | Other War Stories - video Dailymotion

The Military Show

⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 Iran Challenged Ukraine — Big Mistake 17:05 Russia Was SO Confident In This Assault… Then Ukraine Did THIS 33:22 Iran Crossed UNFORGIVABLE Line… U.S. Retaliation Was MERCILESS 49:22 Iran Just Tried to ASSASSINATE Trump… Then This HAPPENED 01:04:36 Iran's NUCLEAR Pickaxe Mountain EXPOSED... Let The BOMBING Begin  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow

Transcript

00:00:00For years, Iran has been supplying weapons, particularly Shahid drones, to Russia.

00:00:05Those weapons arrive on Shadow Fleet ships taking secretive routes through the Caspian Sea.

00:00:11And now Ukraine has had enough. It just turned that secret weapons route into a giant fireball

00:00:17with drone attacks against Iranian ships that were sailing to Russia.

00:00:20But this story is bigger than the strikes. What we're seeing here is two wars converging into

00:00:26one. Russia, Iran, Ukraine, and the US are now involved in a conflict that spans the globe.

00:00:34Are we seeing the start of a global war? Perhaps. But let's start with the strikes.

00:00:39On July 25th, Ukraine unleashed a wave of strikes against ships sailing through the Caspian Sea.

00:00:46On the surface, these ships looked like regular commercial vessels. They weren't. The ships were

00:00:51part of the Shadow Fleet that Russia and Iran have been using to transport weapons and oil between

00:00:56themselves. For Ukraine, this is a situation that can no longer be tolerated. The weapons that

00:01:02Russia has been receiving, which include drones and missiles, have for too long been used to attack

00:01:07Ukrainian cities and kill Ukrainian civilians. So Ukraine did something about it. And it isn't shy

00:01:14about letting the world know about the results. On his official Telegram account, Ukraine's President

00:01:19Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the strikes to the world.

00:01:22We have very good results from long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea. In particular,

00:01:28these are vessels that were involved in the transportation of military cargo with Iran and a

00:01:32warship, Zelenskyy said, in an announcement where he also detailed attacks against the Tiumen oil

00:01:37refinery in Yekaterinburg, a strike against a fuel and lubricants warehouse in Rostov-on-Don,

00:01:42and a drone assault on an enterprise in Kirov that makes components used in the weapons that Russia

00:01:47launches at Ukraine. That latter strike was conducted at a range of about 1,200 kilometers,

00:01:53Zelenskyy said, which highlights just how deep Ukraine's strikes are now able to go.

00:01:57But it's Iran's ships that are the headline grabbers here. What Ukraine has just done is

00:02:02launch strikes against another nation other than Russia. That's huge because it means that two

00:02:08separate wars have just converged into one, and it opens the door to a globe-spanning conflict.

00:02:14The footage from the strikes is revealing. Ukraine has now hit three vessels in the Caspian Sea,

00:02:19at least two of which were transporting weapons from Iran. Those ships, the Big A and the Port

00:02:24Olya-2, may fly the Russian flag, but they were filled with Iranian supplies and, for all intents

00:02:30and purposes, were as important to Iran and its attempts to keep its flagging economy going as they

00:02:35were to Russia and its desire to continue its constant bombardment against Ukraine. There was no mercy

00:02:41shown to these ships. The plumes of smoke and massive fires show us that Ukraine wasn't looking

00:02:45to disable, it wanted to sink. This is an escalation unlike anything yet seen in the Caspian Sea,

00:02:51and it has massive ramifications. What we're seeing here is Ukraine delivering a huge warning

00:02:57shot to Iran. For years, Iran's regime has cooperated with Putin. Beyond the Shahid drones,

00:03:04Iran and Russia signed a cooperation agreement toward the end of 2025, making it clear that the two nations

00:03:09were deepening their relationship. To Ukraine, the wars had already converged. Iran may be fighting

00:03:15the US in the Gulf, and Russia may be invading Ukraine on its own territory, but this cooperation

00:03:20between the two means the war is already global. As Zelensky points out, Russia has been providing

00:03:26Iran with satellite photographs used in strikes against US bases and American allies in the Gulf region.

00:03:33Since the beginning of July, we have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states

00:03:37and US military facilities located there. These images subsequently appear in Iran,

00:03:43Zelensky declared in his July 25th evening address to the Ukrainian people, adding,

00:03:48There is a clear correlation between Russia's satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes,

00:03:53both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage inflicted.

00:03:58On July 19th and 20th alone, four air bases fell within the area of interest of Russian satellites,

00:04:04two in Bahrain, one in Jordan, and one in Kuwait. So Ukraine's justification is clear.

00:04:10Iran was already involved, and Ukraine has decided to meet its Shadow Fleet ships with fire.

00:04:16We'll be digging deeper into those justifications later, but what is interesting about Zelensky's

00:04:21statement here is that he's sending a message, not to Iran and not even to Russia, but to the United

00:04:26States.

00:04:27Ukraine is letting the US know, in no uncertain terms, that the war against Iran is actually a fight

00:04:33to protect the entire West and its values from nations that wish to destroy them.

00:04:37There's a shock factor to these strikes, which has reverberated through the halls of the White House.

00:04:42That's according to Joe Barnes, who's the diplomatic editor at The Telegraph.

00:04:46Barnes points out that the Iranian cargo ships in the Caspian Sea don't seem like obvious targets for Ukraine,

00:04:52but by striking these ships and making the statement we shared earlier, Zelensky is reinforcing the nature

00:04:57of the alliance between Iran and Russia in the minds of the Trump administration.

00:05:02Ukraine's goal is to link the two conflicts, and by doing so it might be able to create some

00:05:07wiggle room to encourage the US to offer more support to Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia.

00:05:13After all, Ukraine argues, these two wars are already won.

00:05:17Help Ukraine defeat Russia and Iran weakens substantially.

00:05:20This is the message being delivered to the US.

00:05:23It's likely no coincidence that Ukraine's strikes against Iran's ships occurred on the eve of Zelensky arriving

00:05:29in the US on July 28th, the meetings with US President Donald Trump, his team, and what Zelensky calls

00:05:35those who can support our defense.

00:05:38In an ex-post announcing his arrival in the US, Zelensky said,

00:05:41Our number one priority is anti-ballistic defense and strategic cooperation with America.

00:05:47Peace needs to be brought closer.

00:05:48What better way to encourage that cooperation than to demonstrate to the Trump administration

00:05:53that two seemingly separate enemies are actually one mutual foe?

00:05:58As for Iran, its regime is pissed.

00:06:01In the wake of Ukraine's Caspian sea strikes, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Aragchi took to

00:06:06social media to rail against Ukraine.

00:06:09Zelensky has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor.

00:06:12A blatant UN charter violation done at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war, Aragchi blared,

00:06:19before declaring that Iran has

00:06:20In other words, Iran is planning some kind of response.

00:06:28What that response is remains to be seen.

00:06:31Aragchi's words are vague, likely deliberately so.

00:06:33And Iran also has its hands tied with the fight against the US in the Gulf region.

00:06:37For its part, Ukraine has dismissed the Iranian threat and doubled down on its view that the

00:06:42strikes against these cargo ships were 100% legitimate.

00:06:46Ukraine's foreign minister Andriy Sabir has let Iran know precisely where Ukraine stands

00:06:51in a July 27th expost where he said,

00:06:53Iran's threats are unjustified and groundless.

00:06:56The regime in Tehran is a direct accomplice to Russian aggression against Ukraine,

00:07:00fueling Moscow's criminal war with weapons that have killed Ukrainians since 2022.

00:07:05Sabir adds that Iran has no right to pretend to be a victim in all of this,

00:07:09never mind to threaten United Nations action against Ukraine.

00:07:12Again, it all comes back to Ukraine's overall point.

00:07:15Iran has been part of the war with Russia since the very beginning.

00:07:18All Ukraine just did was teach Iran why that's a very bad idea.

00:07:23Tensions have exploded to unforeseen levels.

00:07:26Both wars in Ukraine and Iran, which already involved dozens of nations either providing aid

00:07:31or being directly affected by strikes, have just escalated.

00:07:35What happens next could be huge for the course of global events.

00:07:39But before we dig into that, as well as what Ukraine did and why it attacked these ships,

00:07:43this is a reminder that you're watching the military show.

00:07:46We make this show to explain how power really moves,

00:07:49so make sure you're subscribed and have notifications enabled so you see more of our videos.

00:07:55Before we dig deeper into what all of this means for the future,

00:07:58there's a question that needs to be answered.

00:08:00How did Ukraine even manage to attack Shadow Fleet cargo ships in the Caspian Sea?

00:08:05After all the clue is in the name, Shadow Fleet.

00:08:07These ships are supposed to be hidden.

00:08:09They deactivate transponders and take secret routes specifically to prevent something like

00:08:14what just happened from happening.

00:08:15We'll be shocked in equal measure that Ukraine was able to pull off a strike like this.

00:08:19How it happened comes down to the brilliant use of an intelligence network and equipment

00:08:24that enables Ukraine to track Shadow Fleet ships as they sail in the Caspian Sea.

00:08:28On the intelligence front, Ukraine is part of the War and Sanctions Project,

00:08:32which is essentially a massive database of targets that have been identified

00:08:36as being part of Russia's campaign of aggression against Ukraine.

00:08:40This database compiles open-source data, information from Ukraine's partners on sanctioned ships,

00:08:45satellite imagery, and much more to provide Ukraine with a list of potential targets to strike.

00:08:51Both the Bigay and the Port Olya-2 are in that database.

00:08:55You can search them for yourself, and you'll find information about the ships,

00:08:59justifications for them being targets, a list of the ports that they visited,

00:09:02and even information about the flags that they sail under to try to stay hidden from view.

00:09:07So Ukraine knew what it wanted to strike.

00:09:09But Ukraine still had to find these shady ships as they sailed in the Caspian Sea.

00:09:13What may have happened here is that Ukraine combined all of the data it had already collected

00:09:18with the use of a dedicated synthetic aperture radar that it received from Finland.

00:09:23That radar was crowdfunded by Ukraine's people back in June 2022.

00:09:27They raised more than the planned $13 million in three days,

00:09:30initially to buy Bayraktar drones from Turkey.

00:09:33When Turkey heard about this, they donated the drones to Ukraine,

00:09:36leaving the $18 million for the purchase of what is essentially a spy satellite

00:09:40that Ukraine can use to track the movements of targets.

00:09:43This brilliant device fires radar energy at the Earth's surface from 500 kilometers away,

00:09:48and it uses what it gets back to build an image of what it sees.

00:09:53Clouds, darkness, and weather don't affect the radar,

00:09:55and using it, Ukraine can receive images of what is on the ground,

00:09:58or perhaps in this case, the Caspian Sea, six times faster than it would from other sources.

00:10:03So what likely happened here is that satellite imagery clued Ukraine into the fact

00:10:07that the two Iranian cargo ships were setting sail from Iran through the Caspian Sea.

00:10:12Ukraine then used its own radars to track those ships,

00:10:15which in turn allowed it to set a course for drones that would fly hundreds of kilometers

00:10:18to take those vessels down.

00:10:20As for the drones, it appears that Ukraine used the Lyuchi for the job.

00:10:24One of the most famous long-range drones that Ukraine has developed,

00:10:27the Lyuchi has been making a name for itself for years.

00:10:30With a range of more than 1,000 kilometers,

00:10:32and the ability to carry warheads weighing up to 75 kilograms,

00:10:36it has more than enough range and firepower to reach the Caspian Sea

00:10:39and punch holes in any ships attempting to sail through it.

00:10:43Lyuchi is also believed to have a navigation system that incorporates artificial intelligence,

00:10:47which makes it much harder for electronic warfare devices to send it off course.

00:10:52And in an interesting wrinkle,

00:10:53Ukraine has been adapting the drone into a cruise missile carrier.

00:10:57That's according to a July 21st United 24 media report,

00:11:00which says that Ukraine recently showcased a version of the Lyuchi

00:11:03that can carry four compact air-launched cruise missiles,

00:11:07essentially transforming the drone into an unmanned bomber.

00:11:11That wasn't the version of the Lyuchi used against Iran and Russia's ships.

00:11:15Hamikaze drones did the damage.

00:11:17But it's interesting to see what Ukraine has in store for the future of its war against Russia

00:11:21and what now seems to be a burgeoning conflict with Iran.

00:11:24Speaking of the future,

00:11:25the big question now is whether Ukraine's justification for its Caspian Sea strike

00:11:29will be enough to ward off a fight with Iran,

00:11:32or if Iran is intent on following through with its threats of retribution.

00:11:36We know why Ukraine did this.

00:11:38The supply line between Iran and Russia is well established,

00:11:40and the Caspian Sea is where most of the drones heading into Russia from Iran head.

00:11:45A message was sent.

00:11:46The sea is no longer safe for Shadow Fleet ships.

00:11:49Ukraine wants to force Iran into considering the risk involved in cooperating with Russia,

00:11:54perhaps with the goal of severing the tie between the two nations,

00:11:57or at least damaging it enough to force Iran to pull back on its support.

00:12:01But there's also timing to consider, as we mentioned earlier.

00:12:05Ukraine's strike comes at a time when the relationship between the US and Ukraine

00:12:08is arguably stronger than it has been at any other point during Trump's second stint.

00:12:13Plus, Ukraine got to take another shot at the Russian Shadow Fleet here.

00:12:16That's been a clear focus for Ukraine over the past month,

00:12:20as a wave of drone strikes in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov

00:12:23have taken out almost 200 fuel tankers, cargo vessels, and tugboats in those two seas.

00:12:29Ukraine likely sees what it did in the Caspian Sea as an extension of the Ukraine war,

00:12:33rather than the opening of a new front that converges two separate wars.

00:12:37But Iran may see things differently.

00:12:39And that's why we may be about to see regional conflicts blow up into a much wider war.

00:12:44To Iran, the Shadow Fleet ships that Ukraine just destroyed

00:12:47aren't just dime-a-dozen cargo vessels that can be replaced easily.

00:12:51Both carried weapons that Iran needs to be able to sell to Russia to support its ailing economy.

00:12:56The Caspian Sea is a lifeline for Iran as it attempts to endure US bombing campaigns

00:13:01and blockades of the Strait of Hormuz that are designed to cripple Iran's economy.

00:13:05Though American strikes in Iran grab the headlines,

00:13:08it's the country's work to limit the flow of oil out of Iran itself

00:13:11that is doing the very real damage that could force the country's regime to back down to American pressure.

00:13:17During Operation Epic Fury, the US claimed that the counter-blockade it created in Hormuz

00:13:21was costing Iran $500 million per day.

00:13:24On June 5, Al Jazeera reported that Iran was exporting less than a sixth of the oil

00:13:29that it was selling before the war with the US began.

00:13:31The country's crude oil exports are now the lowest they've been in six years,

00:13:35and they've left an almost $6 billion wide black hole in the Iranian economy.

00:13:40Iran International points out something similar for Iran's non-oil trade,

00:13:45noting that Iran is ultimately the biggest loser from the Hormuz blockades.

00:13:49The outlet points to non-oil trade with China,

00:13:52which was $830 million between March and June 2026.

00:13:56That's 75% lower than the equivalent period in 2025,

00:14:00which recorded $3.3 billion.

00:14:03Iran has also lost out on trade with its Gulf neighbors.

00:14:06In 2025, trade with those neighbors accounted for 51% of Iran's total non-oil sales.

00:14:12Now there's practically no trade.

00:14:14These Gulf neighbors have no intention of buying from Iran

00:14:17when Iran is actively targeting them with drones and missiles.

00:14:21The point we're making here is that Iran is in dire economic straits.

00:14:25Its trade with Russia via the Caspian Sea was one of the few economic lifelines that Iran had,

00:14:30as it endures tremendous pressure caused by its war with the U.S.

00:14:33Ukraine just made that lifeline much more dangerous to exploit.

00:14:37That's a boon for the U.S., which will be happy to see Iran lose yet more money.

00:14:41But for Iran, what happened in the Caspian Sea could trigger an already desperate nation

00:14:46into doing something insane, attacking Ukraine directly.

00:14:49As crazy as it sounds, such an attack is theoretically possible.

00:14:53It won't involve troops.

00:14:55Iran isn't going to start shipping soldiers into Russia,

00:14:58especially when it needs those soldiers back home to protect against the potential threat

00:15:01of a U.S. ground invasion.

00:15:03But what Iran does have is ballistic missiles.

00:15:06And according to a June 26th piece by the iPaper,

00:15:09the regime is considering a revenge missile strike against Ukraine

00:15:12in response to what happened in the Caspian Sea.

00:15:15The outlet reports on comments made by Barbek Tugvahi, who is an Iranian military journalist.

00:15:21Although the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force has made no official statement,

00:15:25it has reportedly conveyed to several members of parliament and journalists close to the regime

00:15:30that it is considering a retaliatory ballistic missile strike against a strategic target in Kiev,

00:15:35Tugvahi tells the iPaper, adding that keeping all of this unofficial

00:15:39would also provide plausible deniability for such an attack.

00:15:43After all, Iranian missiles are already being used by Russia.

00:15:47Iran would just argue that it was Russia that carried out the strike rather than Iran.

00:15:51The regime also has missiles that could reach Ukraine,

00:15:54albeit they would have to fly massive distances to do so.

00:15:58The Gada, Sajil, and Imad are all believed to have ranges of about 2,000 kilometers,

00:16:03with the Karamshah supposedly being capable of flying up to 4,000 kilometers.

00:16:07If there is a strike coming, it will likely be that last missile that Iran uses.

00:16:12Iran has a 2,000-kilometer version of the Karamshah, which carries a 1,500-kilogram warhead.

00:16:18Presumably, this warhead is smaller on the 4,000-kilometer variant, enabling the longer distance.

00:16:23If Iran launches any of these missiles at Ukraine, two wars would become one.

00:16:27The US, shocked by such a brazen attack and already concerned that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons

00:16:33that could be loaded into one of these missiles, would be forced to act.

00:16:37More strikes on Iran would follow, and Ukraine may finally get the increased aid it wants to continue its fight

00:16:43with Russia.

00:16:44Iran so directly attacking Ukraine could also potentially pave the way for Russian forces or equipment

00:16:49to head into Iran to serve in the defense against the US.

00:16:52Two conflicts that have always been somewhat intermingled would become part of the same war.

00:16:57A global war.

00:16:59One that starts with four nations, but could grow to engulf the Gulf, Europe, and many other parts of the

00:17:05world.

00:17:06Russia isn't learning its lesson.

00:17:09Once again, Putin has ordered his troops to march into Slovyansk.

00:17:13That settlement is a hellscape.

00:17:16A death zone.

00:17:17It's where Russian soldiers go to die, as their leader orders them to smash their bodies against a town that

00:17:23never sleeps.

00:17:24And it happened again.

00:17:26Ukraine set the trap.

00:17:27Russia thought it broke through the Slovyansk front line, only for that trap to spring shut.

00:17:33Ukraine broke every Russian soldier that was ordered to charge straight into hell.

00:17:38Russia's Slovyansk disaster started with yet another push.

00:17:41From August 1st through to August 2nd, Russia launched a string of offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction,

00:17:48relying heavily on advances it had made previously to form a sort of salient in the Slovyansk direction.

00:17:54The assault doesn't seem to have been on the town itself.

00:17:57Combat maps demonstrate that this offensive likely took place about 15 kilometers outside of Slovyansk.

00:18:04However, that distance is important.

00:18:05It means that Russia has placed Slovyansk in artillery range,

00:18:09and it also means that Russia can use its FPV drones to assault the town

00:18:13and attempt to create a kill zone of its own just outside of the settlement's borders.

00:18:18So, the Russian strategy was simple.

00:18:20Build on the salient that it had already created and attempt to advance under the cover of its own FPV

00:18:26drones.

00:18:27That salient, which is a word used to describe any military position that projects into the territory of the opposition,

00:18:33was the key to the Russian assault.

00:18:35Established in the region of Kaloniki, it pushes into the gray zone around Slovyansk,

00:18:40in which both Russian infiltration units and Ukrainian units have established positions.

00:18:44Nobody truly occupies the gray zones.

00:18:47Stretching for several kilometers, these zones are where much of the fighting takes place,

00:18:51only it's not the kind of fighting that you would expect.

00:18:54There are no big front-line pushes or large-scale mechanized assaults taking place.

00:18:58What tends to happen is that Russian units infiltrate and Ukrainian units conduct search-and-destroy missions.

00:19:05Drones are everywhere.

00:19:06And it's into one of these gray zones that Russia had established the salient in the Slovyansk direction.

00:19:12On one hand, this salient was a good thing for Russia.

00:19:14It represented a break in the front lines that Russia could exploit.

00:19:18Running along a road, it allowed them to advance up and down a forested strip of land outside Slovyansk,

00:19:24offering good cover.

00:19:24That aids logistics.

00:19:27It means that Russia can move soldiers and supplies closer to the front

00:19:29before both have to enter the gray zones to attempt assaults on Slovyansk.

00:19:33From the salient, Russian infiltrators can sort of diffuse out into the gray zone territory,

00:19:38where they attempt to establish bulkheads into which other troops follow,

00:19:41thus widening the salient to punch a larger hole through the front lines.

00:19:45That's what Russia was attempting near Slovyansk.

00:19:48Only there's the whole, on the other hand, aspect that was at play.

00:19:51The salient was important, sure, but it also meant that Russia only controlled a two-kilometer-wide area,

00:19:57through which all soldiers and resupply efforts had to pass.

00:20:00That area was within range of Ukraine's drones and artillery.

00:20:04Plus, the salient comes with other issues.

00:20:06Russia's forces had pushed through the front,

00:20:08but that also means that Russia's moving through the salient are surrounded on three sides.

00:20:13All that Ukraine has to do to track Russia's movements through this salient

00:20:17is deploy some of its legions of reconnaissance drones.

00:20:19Cover could help Putin's soldiers, but not for long.

00:20:23The eyes in the skies were always watching,

00:20:25and they registered Russia attempting to prepare an assault on Slovyansk via this salient.

00:20:30Ukraine continued to watch.

00:20:31It waited for the perfect opportunity.

00:20:34Then Ukraine struck.

00:20:36The Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, delivers the details that we have.

00:20:40Ukraine launched a brutal counterattack in the Slovyansk area,

00:20:44likely focused on the salient and the Russian forces trying to push on from the battlefield bulge.

00:20:48That counterattack took place near Rai Aleksandrivka,

00:20:52and it's been confirmed to have taken place by Russian military bloggers, the ISW reports.

00:20:57The result was the complete shattering of the Slovyansk offensive that Russian troops were preparing.

00:21:03By the end of Ukraine's counterattack, Russia was pushed back from the gray zone,

00:21:06making absolutely no advances while likely losing some of its infiltration units.

00:21:11The salient effort was blunted, and Russia was devastated.

00:21:14That salient effort was actually one of the more impressive examples of a Russian advance

00:21:19that we've seen in the last couple of years.

00:21:21Impressive is a relative term here.

00:21:23Still, Russia's forces had managed to push forward about six kilometers towards Slovyansk in around two weeks,

00:21:28which is a pace of advance that far outstrips anything else that has been happening on the front lines in

00:21:33recent months.

00:21:34It's not huge.

00:21:35None of Russia's current advances are.

00:21:37But it was enough to create the potential for an assault, and Russia tried to fulfill that potential.

00:21:42Ukraine stopped Putin's soldiers in their tracks,

00:21:45lured them into a trap of their own making before striking against the salient.

00:21:49Russia once again failed to learn the Slovyansk lesson.

00:21:52This settlement, along with everything that surrounds it, is an absolute hellscape for Russia's forces.

00:21:57Still, they attempt to push forward.

00:21:59Putin demands it.

00:22:00But not even Russia's desperate attempts to use glide bombs to change the Slovyansk situation are working the way the

00:22:06Kremlin expected.

00:22:08Slovyansk has been a target for a long time.

00:22:10As far back as March 30th, the New Voice of Ukraine was reporting that Russia's grand spring offensive,

00:22:15which was supposed to set the stage for the collapse of Donetsk later in 2026,

00:22:19had stalled out just outside of Slovyansk.

00:22:22Russia has been trying to advance from the east,

00:22:24only to run into the brick wall of a vast Ukrainian kill zone,

00:22:27loaded with trenches, barbed wire, and a seemingly endless supply of drones.

00:22:32The situation had left Russia with only one option to conduct an assault on the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk urban area.

00:22:39What was meant to be an assault from all sides on that region

00:22:42had devolved into Russia simply throwing cannon fodder from its 3rd Combined Arms Army into the kill zones.

00:22:47There was no supporting action from the flanks.

00:22:50There still isn't, as we see from the salient that was surrounded on all sides by Ukraine.

00:22:54Analysts at the time said that Russia's decision to attempt to advance

00:22:57without this supporting action on the flanks

00:22:59would lead to extremely high losses in return for minimal gains.

00:23:03Those analysts were right on the money.

00:23:06By July 1st, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS,

00:23:10had gathered enough data to highlight just how pitiful Russia's rate of advance with this strategy had been.

00:23:15The outlet noted that the period between December 2025 and June 2026

00:23:19has seen Russian forces advance just 15 kilometers in the Slovyansk direction,

00:23:25achieving a daily rate of advance of about 90 meters per day.

00:23:28You don't need to be Usain Bolt to cover that distance in about 10 or 15 seconds if you're running,

00:23:33but Russia took an entire day to move forward by that amount for over six consecutive months.

00:23:39And even then, Russia's forces still remained about 20 kilometers east of Slovyansk itself.

00:23:45Based on that rate of advance, it would take Russia another 222 days just to get to the outskirts of

00:23:50the city.

00:23:51In other words, it won't be until the beginning of 2027 that Russia will be in a position to actually

00:23:56attempt a true assault.

00:23:57And every time we see something like what just happened in early August, Russia's forces get set back.

00:24:03Military analyst Klemot Molan summed up the situation outside Slovyansk and across much of the front well in a July

00:24:0931st post on X,

00:24:11where he said that the fields of eastern Ukraine are starting to look like a chessboard.

00:24:14Trenches are everywhere, along with other fortifications that have essentially divided the territory outside of Slovyansk

00:24:20into separate squares that Ukraine has transformed into drone-infested kill zones.

00:24:24In 2026 alone, Ukraine has dug more than 3,800 kilometers of these trenches, and it's likely digging more.

00:24:32Every trench is in place to stop Russia from advancing using tanks and armored vehicles.

00:24:37Soldiers have to infiltrate on foot, and they need to navigate these trenches to get to where they've been ordered

00:24:42to go.

00:24:43What Ukraine has created is a chessboard of defenses.

00:24:46Each square is loaded with drones that strike any Russian soldiers they see.

00:24:50We assume there will also be other defenses, such as artillery that strikes once Russian soldiers have been funneled into

00:24:55position by the trenches,

00:24:57along with search-and-destroy squads that are constantly on the hunt.

00:25:00This is the situation that Ukraine has created outside of Slovyansk.

00:25:04Trap after trap after trap, and all Russia's forces can do is bungle from one to the next.

00:25:10With the failure of the most recent attempts to advance under its belt,

00:25:13Russia is being forced to rely on a tried-and-true strategy to try and create more favorable conditions.

00:25:18Glide bombs are being launched en masse.

00:25:21That's according to the ISW, which reports on comments from the Slovyansk military administration head,

00:25:26Vadim Lyak, who says that Russia carried out a Fab 250 glide bomb strike against Slovyansk on the morning of

00:25:32August 2nd,

00:25:33likely to support the attempted assault that Ukraine's counterattack shut down.

00:25:36This isn't a new strategy for Russia.

00:25:39The use of glide bombs also isn't just about attempting to shape the battlefield.

00:25:43Russia wants to cause as much chaos as it can with these weapons,

00:25:46and it's happy to kill civilians in order to do it.

00:25:49Just a week or so before Russia's assault failed,

00:25:52RBC Ukraine reported that Russia unleashed a trio of glide bomb strikes against Slovyansk in 24 hours by July 24th,

00:25:59injuring 16 people in the process.

00:26:01A child was among those injured.

00:26:03And that's the point for Putin and his army.

00:26:05If they can't advance on the ground, they will terrorize from the skies.

00:26:09Frankly, this seems to be the only truly effective strategy that Russia has left.

00:26:12But glide bombs didn't help Russia's ground forces on August 1st and 2nd.

00:26:17Ukraine dispatched those forces, blunting the salient and sending Russia back to the drawing board.

00:26:23It's clear at this point that any assault on Slovyansk means death for Russia's troops.

00:26:27So the question has to be asked,

00:26:29why does Putin keep ordering these assaults?

00:26:32There is a good answer to that question that we'll reveal in a moment.

00:26:35But before we do, this is a reminder that you're watching The Military Show.

00:26:38If you haven't subscribed yet, now is the perfect time to hit the button and enable notifications so you don't

00:26:44miss any of our videos.

00:26:46Slovyansk is important for a simple reason.

00:26:48It's part of the Donetsk Fortress Belt that Russia needs to destroy if it's to capture Donetsk,

00:26:53and by extension, the wider Donbass region that Putin has wanted ever since he launched his campaign of aggression in

00:26:592014.

00:27:00This belt is a concentration of four cities that run in a 50-kilometer line along the H-20 highway

00:27:06in Donetsk.

00:27:06Before Putin launched his invasion, these four cities had a combined population of 380,000 people,

00:27:13with Slovyansk being the larger of the four, with a pre-war population of 105,000, the ISW reports.

00:27:20Ukraine has spent well over a decade fortifying all four of these cities,

00:27:24ever since Putin launched his campaign of aggression in 2014.

00:27:27Each is laden with defenses to the point where taking the fortress belt will be much harder than any other

00:27:32strategic gain

00:27:33that Russia has made since its initial advance in February and March 2022.

00:27:37Combined, the fortress belt region is over seven times larger than Bukhovsk,

00:27:41which Russia took well over a year to capture, and about four times larger than Bakhmut,

00:27:47the battle for which was among the bloodiest that we've yet seen during the war.

00:27:51Beyond that, Slovyansk serves both symbolic and strategic purposes for Russia.

00:27:55It was in this city that Putin was able to establish his first pro-Russian bridgehead in 2014, DW reports.

00:28:01Local separatists were even able to briefly take control of Slovyansk with the help of Russian intelligence back in 2014.

00:28:08For Putin, that makes Slovyansk the proof of his constant claims that Russians and Ukrainians are one people,

00:28:14and that Ukraine wants to become part of Russia, with only the regime in Kyiv holding it back.

00:28:19To take Slovyansk would mean completing the work that Russia started more than a decade ago.

00:28:24In the wider context of the war that has raged for four and a half years,

00:28:28which itself disproves all of Putin's symbolic claims,

00:28:31Slovyansk also offers access to the M03 highway.

00:28:35That highway links Kyiv to Kharkiv, and then onto Donetsk,

00:28:38and ultimately into the Russian region of Rostov-on-Don.

00:28:41If Russia is able to gain control over this highway, it can cut off Ukraine's access to the northwest of

00:28:46the country,

00:28:47leaving Slovyansk isolated, and preventing Ukraine from using that highway to shuttle in troops and supplies to Donetsk.

00:28:53Ukraine would also struggle to rotate soldiers out of Donetsk,

00:28:56allowing Russia to batter away its increasingly exhausted defensive forces.

00:29:00With all of this in mind, it makes sense that Russia continues to launch assaults in the direction of Slovyansk,

00:29:05even with all of the deaths and the repeatedly being caught in traps when it believes it's broken through the

00:29:09front lines.

00:29:10The Russian plan is simple.

00:29:12First, it takes Liman, which the Russian news agency TASS claimed was captured at the end of July.

00:29:17From Liman, Russia pushes into and through Slovyansk,

00:29:20which in turn gives Russia the ability to launch assaults against Kramatorsk.

00:29:24Russia claims it has completed step one of this strategy.

00:29:27However, an August 4th report in Euromiden Press suggests otherwise.

00:29:31As is so often the case when Russia claims to have captured a settlement,

00:29:34what really seems to be happening is that infiltration units have penetrated,

00:29:38but full control is far from established.

00:29:41Russia is still far from established in Liman,

00:29:43claims the spokesman of Ukraine's Joint Forces, Viktor Trehubov.

00:29:47And until Russia is established,

00:29:49any attempt to assault Slovyansk will end the same way as the attack on August 1st and 2nd,

00:29:53because Russia doesn't have the launch pad it needs for successful assaults against the Fortress Belt city.

00:29:59So that's Russia's Slovyansk situation right now.

00:30:02It will continue to launch assaults,

00:30:04but it's still a very long way away from even being close to reaching the city's borders,

00:30:08never mind capturing it.

00:30:09We could look at this as a microcosm of what's happening in Donetsk as a whole.

00:30:14After all, the situation is the same.

00:30:16Russia pushes, but doesn't get all that far.

00:30:18Russia's plan is to occupy all of Donetsk by the end of 2026.

00:30:22That plan lies in tatters because its advances are so ludicrously slow

00:30:26that it will be lucky to have even reached the edge of Slovyansk by the end of the year,

00:30:30never mind capturing the rest of the Fortress Belt cities that need to fall.

00:30:34We touched on how trudging the Russian advance toward that city has already been.

00:30:38In Donetsk, and Ukraine as a whole, the situation looks even worse.

00:30:42In its August 1st assessment of the Russian campaign during July,

00:30:45the ISW noted that Russia has managed to advance a whopping 37.8 square kilometers in Ukraine,

00:30:52achieving an average of 1.22 square kilometers per day.

00:30:56For context, that's an area smaller than Manhattan, the think tank points out.

00:31:00There was some good news for Russia in that July was the second month in a row

00:31:04that Putin's forces managed to achieve a net territorial gain in Ukraine.

00:31:08June offered a similar yet smaller advance of 30.02 square kilometers,

00:31:13while April and May combined to see Russia lose almost 400 square kilometers of territory.

00:31:18So Russia is still trying to catch up to the losses it experienced earlier in 2026.

00:31:22So far, it's about halfway to covering its April losses.

00:31:26That isn't a good look for the nation that is supposed to be on the offense and raging through Donetsk.

00:31:31The pathetic rate of advance is cast under an even harsher spotlight

00:31:34when you take Russia's July losses into account.

00:31:37On August 3rd, the Kiev Independent reported that those losses amounted to 42,000,

00:31:43860 soldiers killed or wounded,

00:31:45which is a high watermark and then some for 2026.

00:31:48The previous high came in June when Russia lost 39,290 of its soldiers.

00:31:54What this means is that Russia sacrificed over 1,130 of its soldiers

00:31:58for every square kilometer it occupied during the month.

00:32:01The fortress belt is clearly doing its job.

00:32:04And as we saw on August 1st and 2nd,

00:32:06Slovyansk's defenders are brutally effective.

00:32:08As for Donetsk as a whole,

00:32:10capturing the region by the end of 2026 is an impossible goal.

00:32:13The only way that could happen is if all of Ukraine's defenders

00:32:16simultaneously decided to simply stop fighting.

00:32:19And given the incompetence of Russia's soldiers,

00:32:21we're not even confident that laying down arms would be enough

00:32:24for Russia to take the fortress belt by the end of the year.

00:32:27Insults aside, the rate of advance that we've seen in June and July is so slow

00:32:31that open-source intelligence analyst Deep State says

00:32:34that Russia won't even be able to capture Donetsk in 2027,

00:32:38never mind 2026.

00:32:40The only thing that seems to be capable of changing this dreadful forecast for Russia

00:32:44is if Putin follows through on the rumors that he is preparing to mobilize

00:32:47500,000 Russian soldiers following the September State Duma elections.

00:32:52That's the sorry position that Russia's leader now finds himself in.

00:32:55He can't take Donetsk when he said that he would,

00:32:58and the only way he could make that impossible plausible

00:33:00was to be doing the one thing that he has repeatedly promised that he wouldn't do.

00:33:04None of this helps the soldiers that Russia just sacrificed near Slovyansk.

00:33:08They were ordered to charge into hell,

00:33:10and hell is exactly what they found.

00:33:12However, Ukraine's Slovyansk counterattack offers just the smallest hint

00:33:16of what's really happening to Russia's Donbass front line.

00:33:19That line is on the verge of collapse.

00:33:23Negotiations failed.

00:33:24The war between the US and Iran has ignited once more,

00:33:28and both sides are fighting with everything they have.

00:33:32Iran's president, Masoud Pazeshkian, said on July 20th

00:33:36that his country is now in a full-scale war,

00:33:39and with a war comes casualties.

00:33:42The US has tragically suffered some losses due to Iranian strikes.

00:33:47Those losses would not go unanswered.

00:33:50Iran crossed an unforgivable line in the eyes of the US

00:33:54with an attack against an American airbase.

00:33:56The regime thought that it could play with fire,

00:33:58but the US brought an inferno,

00:34:01as it went all in on a merciless retaliation

00:34:04that showed Iran's regime that any attempts it makes

00:34:06to destroy the US will be delivered right back with ten times the power.

00:34:10A weekend of violence left the US in mourning

00:34:13after several of its soldiers were killed in Iranian strikes.

00:34:16The worst attack came at a US airbase in Jordan,

00:34:19where an Iranian missile managed to penetrate

00:34:21through the base's air defences.

00:34:23CBS News reports that footage of the attack suggests

00:34:26the use of a precision ballistic missile,

00:34:29which arrived with little warning.

00:34:32Soldiers are seen scrambling for shelter

00:34:33as the missile, which appears to have been accompanied

00:34:36by Shahid strike drones, crashed down.

00:34:38The attack was the second in as many days

00:34:41that Iran has launched against the Jordan base,

00:34:43and the fourth in five days

00:34:45that Iran had used to target US forces in Jordan.

00:34:48Dozens of soldiers have been wounded in these strikes.

00:34:50The two who died have since been named

00:34:53as First Lieutenant Tyler James Feehan,

00:34:55who was 25,

00:34:56and Private Isabella Gonzalez,

00:34:58who was just 19.

00:35:00Both had been stationed at the Muafak Salty Air Base,

00:35:03where they served as part of the US Army's

00:35:05air defence artillery regiments.

00:35:07In the wake of the strike,

00:35:08US Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed

00:35:11that though American air defences were active,

00:35:13they weren't enough to stop the missile that did the damage.

00:35:15We shot down almost all the missiles,

00:35:17Rubio said before adding,

00:35:19one leaked through, hit the wrong place,

00:35:21and tragically, and it's heartbreaking.

00:35:23More tragedies struck the US soon after.

00:35:26In northern Iraq, a third soldier passed away

00:35:29after taking part in an attempt to conduct

00:35:31a controlled demolition of an undetonated

00:35:34Iranian strike drone.

00:35:35A second soldier was also wounded in the detonation.

00:35:38We have few details of the incident beyond that,

00:35:41though Rubio also commented, stating,

00:35:43they were decommissioning ammunition,

00:35:45and an accident happened in that process,

00:35:47and they were harmed.

00:35:48We're just grateful to have such heroic Americans

00:35:50in uniform in service of our country.

00:35:52US President Donald Trump also expressed his condolences,

00:35:56saying,

00:35:56well, we feel very badly,

00:35:58but you know those great people,

00:36:00those great patriots who are fighting

00:36:01so that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.

00:36:03This trio of deaths is the first among US service members

00:36:06for months, and they demonstrate that the war

00:36:09between the US and Iran has escalated once more.

00:36:12According to the New York Times,

00:36:13the US has now lost 16 soldiers in total to the war.

00:36:17The BB says the number is higher,

00:36:19placing it at 17 in the wake of a US Navy pilot

00:36:21who went missing earlier in July being declared dead,

00:36:24though it appears that death hasn't been officially confirmed.

00:36:28The US is still in mourning for the loss

00:36:30of its three soldiers.

00:36:31However, the country's administration promised

00:36:34something else in the wake of Iran's latest attack

00:36:36against the Muafak Salty Air Base,

00:36:39punishment.

00:36:40And that punishment was delivered in a frenzy of firepower

00:36:43that shows Iran that it may be able to sneak

00:36:45a ballistic missile through American air defences,

00:36:47but it can do nothing to stop the US

00:36:49from sending dozens of its own missiles,

00:36:51along with bombs and anything else

00:36:53that the US chooses to unleash

00:36:55into the Iranian mainland.

00:36:57On July 19th, AP News reported

00:36:59that the US military had carried out

00:37:01a series of devastating airstrikes

00:37:03throughout the day

00:37:04as a way to swiftly punish Iran's regime

00:37:07for the deaths of the American soldiers.

00:37:09The strikes, though a retaliation,

00:37:11were also tactical.

00:37:13They, along with everything else

00:37:14that the US has been doing

00:37:15over the past few days,

00:37:16were designed to weaken Iran's hold

00:37:18over the Strait of Hormuz.

00:37:19When open, that strait is responsible

00:37:21for about 20% of the world's oil supplies

00:37:24getting to where they need to go.

00:37:25But since the war between Iran and the US reignited,

00:37:29the strait has once again been blocked,

00:37:30as Iran uses asymmetric tactics

00:37:33to make sailing through Hormuz

00:37:34too risky for the average merchant vessel.

00:37:37The bulk of America's revenge strikes

00:37:39took place in the region near Sirik,

00:37:41which lies on the Strait of Hormuz,

00:37:43likely making it a launching point

00:37:45for the drones and fastboats

00:37:46that make transit through Hormuz impossible.

00:37:48AP News reports that Iran's state-run news agency, IRNA,

00:37:53says that the first attacks were reported

00:37:54at around 01.30 local time,

00:37:57taking place in the southern Hormuz-Gand province.

00:37:59Later strikes occurred at Bandar Abbas,

00:38:01which is home to a major naval base

00:38:03used to help the regime control the Strait of Hormuz,

00:38:05and Hajiabad, which is in the Hormuz-Gand province.

00:38:08The US also appears to have struck a location

00:38:11close to Qashem Island,

00:38:12which lies inside the Strait of Hormuz,

00:38:14and is rumored to be home

00:38:15to a massive underground missile fortress.

00:38:18PBS provides more information

00:38:19about what the US targeted.

00:38:21It reported that US Central Command targeted

00:38:23surveillance sites,

00:38:25military logistics infrastructure,

00:38:27underground weapons storage,

00:38:29and maritime capabilities

00:38:30in its wave of revenge strikes.

00:38:32The US attacks are believed to have hit

00:38:34both an electric plant

00:38:35and a desalination plant in Hormuz-Gand.

00:38:38The latter was a very targeted strike.

00:38:40IRNA claims that 10,000 people

00:38:42are now cut off from fresh water

00:38:44as a result of these attacks.

00:38:46The strike near Qashem Island

00:38:47also reportedly targeted a desalination plant,

00:38:50as it appears that America's inferno of revenge

00:38:52has expanded into a strategy designed

00:38:55to cut the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,

00:38:57or IRGC,

00:38:58and the Iranian military off from the essentials.

00:39:01In Bandar Abbas,

00:39:02the US took out a bridge and two tunnels.

00:39:05Those strikes have prevented traffic

00:39:06from flowing into the vital base.

00:39:08Iran has also acknowledged

00:39:09other attacks on power infrastructure,

00:39:11though it offered few other details

00:39:13outside of claiming

00:39:14that American strikes

00:39:15over the previous three weeks

00:39:16have killed at least 50 people

00:39:18and wounded more than 500.

00:39:20This is what revenge looks like.

00:39:22If Iran is going to strike a US air base

00:39:25and kill American soldiers

00:39:26with a ballistic missile,

00:39:27the US will respond

00:39:29with a firestorm so massive

00:39:30that it engulfs several Iranian regions.

00:39:33And the revenge didn't stop there.

00:39:35These strikes were followed up by more

00:39:37on the night of July 19th and into 20th,

00:39:40marking the ninth straight day

00:39:41of the US battering Iran

00:39:43with its superior air power.

00:39:45Syriq was once again a target,

00:39:46as were the cities of Tabriz,

00:39:48Jask, and Chabahar,

00:39:49Al Jazeera reports.

00:39:51Again, loosening Iran's grip

00:39:52on the Strait of Hormuz

00:39:53was the goal,

00:39:54and the US military commented

00:39:56that its aim is

00:39:57degrading Iranian military capabilities

00:39:59used to attack commercial vessels

00:40:01and mariners transiting

00:40:02the Strait of Hormuz.

00:40:03This series of strikes happened

00:40:05not long before the creation

00:40:06of this video,

00:40:07and we don't yet have full details

00:40:08about what the US took out.

00:40:10So far, the reporting notes

00:40:12that explosions were seen and heard

00:40:13in the cities in question,

00:40:15and that Iran's scattered air defenses

00:40:16attempted to fire back.

00:40:18More information will likely

00:40:19come to light,

00:40:20and it will be unsurprising

00:40:21to learn that the US targeted

00:40:22the same types of logistical

00:40:24and energy targets

00:40:25that it struck

00:40:26in its initial revenge attack.

00:40:28We hit them very hard

00:40:29again tonight,

00:40:30and we did that in the honor

00:40:31of the probably three,

00:40:32it's probably three,

00:40:33great patriots,

00:40:34Trump declared

00:40:35in the wake of the American strikes.

00:40:37It will be hard for the IRGC

00:40:38to argue,

00:40:39as Iran's regime

00:40:40once again has to pick

00:40:41through the rubble

00:40:42of a series of targets

00:40:43that the US has successfully destroyed.

00:40:45Though the saying goes

00:40:46that revenge is a dish

00:40:48best served cold,

00:40:49the US has taken

00:40:50a different approach.

00:40:51Fire is the best revenge

00:40:53for America,

00:40:53so much of it

00:40:54that Iran is forced to rue

00:40:55ever killing American soldiers

00:40:57in the first place.

00:40:58Still, anybody who has been

00:40:59keeping track of the Iran war,

00:41:01from the launch of Operation Epic Fury

00:41:02to the latest round of strikes,

00:41:04will know one thing,

00:41:05this conflict is far from over.

00:41:08Maybe.

00:41:08The war with Iran

00:41:09has been characterized

00:41:10by a constant roller coaster

00:41:12of change,

00:41:12but the question has to be asked,

00:41:14what comes next?

00:41:16We'll provide some possible answers

00:41:17to that question in a moment.

00:41:19But before we do,

00:41:20this is the military show.

00:41:22If you haven't subscribed

00:41:23to the channel yet,

00:41:24now's the perfect time to do so.

00:41:25And if you want to ensure

00:41:26that you catch our latest videos

00:41:28as soon as they are published,

00:41:29remember to hit the notification bell.

00:41:32We can divide our answers

00:41:33about what may come next

00:41:34into two categories,

00:41:36the immediate and the future.

00:41:38In the immediate sense,

00:41:40there is a strange combination

00:41:41of talk about a potential peace

00:41:43and a clear escalation

00:41:44that we are seeing

00:41:45on both sides.

00:41:46In a July 20th report,

00:41:47Sky News says that mediators

00:41:49in the negotiations

00:41:50between the US and Iran

00:41:51have reportedly delivered

00:41:52a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire

00:41:54to the Iranian regime.

00:41:56The idea of this ceasefire

00:41:57seems to be to provide negotiators

00:41:59from both sides

00:42:00with the time they need

00:42:01to work their way back

00:42:02towards something akin

00:42:03to the interim deal

00:42:04the US and Iran

00:42:05had reached back in June.

00:42:07That deal is supposed

00:42:08to be active.

00:42:09In fact,

00:42:09we're only about halfway through

00:42:10what was meant to be

00:42:11a 60-day period

00:42:12that was already supposed

00:42:14to provide negotiators

00:42:15with some breathing room,

00:42:16in addition to restarting traffic

00:42:18through the Strait of Hormuz.

00:42:20Iran has also confirmed

00:42:21the receipt of messages

00:42:22from mediators,

00:42:23though its foreign ministry

00:42:24refused to go into detail,

00:42:25that the wheels of diplomacy

00:42:27could still slowly turn,

00:42:28even amidst all of these

00:42:30tit-for-tat strikes.

00:42:31And that may be the best way

00:42:32to describe what's happening

00:42:33in Iran right now.

00:42:34Whenever Iran strikes,

00:42:36the US responds,

00:42:37and vice versa.

00:42:38Iran's Joint Military Command

00:42:39has already said

00:42:40via the state-run media

00:42:41that any covetousness,

00:42:43bullying,

00:42:44totalitarianism,

00:42:45or brutality

00:42:45on the part of the US

00:42:47will be met with

00:42:48a devastating response.

00:42:50It also seems that Iran

00:42:51is going to follow through

00:42:52on that claim,

00:42:53be that with strikes

00:42:54against US bases

00:42:55or against other enemies

00:42:56or Gulf nations.

00:42:58Iran has already struck

00:42:59again in Iraq,

00:43:00where it sent a drone

00:43:01to the base of the

00:43:02Kurdistan Freedom Party

00:43:03in the early hours

00:43:04of July 19th.

00:43:05That drone injured

00:43:06eight people.

00:43:07Iran's Supreme Leader

00:43:08Moitabah Khamenei

00:43:10has also warned

00:43:11that the US will learn

00:43:12some unforgettable lessons

00:43:14in response to its

00:43:15revenge strikes.

00:43:16Khamenei also labelled

00:43:18Trump's signature

00:43:18on any agreements

00:43:19or ceasefire documents

00:43:20as worthless and invalid,

00:43:22as he rallied against

00:43:23earlier US strikes

00:43:24that he believes

00:43:25broke the 60-day agreement

00:43:26that was already in place.

00:43:28None of this makes it sound

00:43:29like there's much hope

00:43:30for the mediators

00:43:31who are trying to bring

00:43:32the latest flare-up

00:43:32between Iran and the US

00:43:34to an end.

00:43:35Indeed,

00:43:35Strait of Hormuz,

00:43:36over which so much

00:43:37of this battle rages,

00:43:38has once again

00:43:39been closed off.

00:43:40Both the US and Iran

00:43:42have made announcements

00:43:42about blockades,

00:43:43with the former claiming

00:43:44that it will stop

00:43:45Iranian ships

00:43:46and the latter stating

00:43:47that pretty much anything

00:43:48other than its own ships

00:43:49in the strait

00:43:50will be targeted.

00:43:51Rubio has accused Iran

00:43:53of using Hormuz

00:43:54as leverage.

00:43:55He's right,

00:43:55but from a purely

00:43:56military perspective,

00:43:57it's hard to blame Iran

00:43:58for doing so.

00:43:59Control over the Strait of Hormuz

00:44:00allows Iran to create

00:44:01so much trade chaos

00:44:02that other nations

00:44:03start putting pressure

00:44:04on the US to stop its war.

00:44:06To counter that,

00:44:07Rubio is also encouraging

00:44:08other countries

00:44:09to step up pressure on Iran,

00:44:10both to support the US

00:44:11and to help merchant vessels

00:44:13sail through the strait.

00:44:14The United States

00:44:15will do and continue

00:44:16to do what it needs to do

00:44:17to protect global shipping,

00:44:19but other countries

00:44:19need to begin

00:44:20to step up and provide,

00:44:21whether it's hardware

00:44:22or finances,

00:44:23to help carry that burden,

00:44:25Rubio declared.

00:44:26Whether that call

00:44:27will be answered

00:44:27is up for debate.

00:44:29Other nations

00:44:29didn't help the US

00:44:30out of its bind

00:44:31earlier in the war

00:44:32and they will be unlikely

00:44:33to provide warships now.

00:44:34Oil prices are also rising,

00:44:36though they haven't reached

00:44:37the $100 plus highs

00:44:39for a barrel that we saw

00:44:40during the initial weeks

00:44:41of Operation Epic Fury.

00:44:42They are heading closer

00:44:43to that direction.

00:44:44In the wake of the US

00:44:45revenge attacks,

00:44:46the price of a barrel of oil

00:44:47briefly rose above $90,

00:44:49though it dropped back

00:44:50to the high 80s region

00:44:51soon after.

00:44:52It's hard to see

00:44:53the figure getting much lower

00:44:54as long as this

00:44:55tip-for-tat exchange

00:44:56keeps happening

00:44:57and Hormuz remains

00:44:58too risky

00:44:58for the merchant ships

00:44:59to travel.

00:45:00And on top of all

00:45:01of these immediate issues,

00:45:02it's become abundantly clear

00:45:03that the risk posed

00:45:04to US soldiers

00:45:05operating in and around Iran

00:45:07is growing higher.

00:45:08We haven't seen deaths

00:45:09on this scale

00:45:10in such a short time period

00:45:11since the earliest weeks

00:45:12of the war in Iran.

00:45:13And it seems likely

00:45:14that Iran will escalate

00:45:15its drone and missile strikes

00:45:17as the US continues

00:45:18to launch attacks

00:45:18on the mainland

00:45:19and facilities

00:45:20in the Strait of Hormuz.

00:45:22Sadly, this means

00:45:22that the three deaths

00:45:23that sparked the US retaliation

00:45:25through the late weekend

00:45:26and into July 20th

00:45:27are unlikely to be the last.

00:45:29Iran has more missiles,

00:45:30Iran is capable

00:45:31of producing thousands

00:45:32of drones per month

00:45:33and as we saw in Iraq,

00:45:35those drones can be dangerous

00:45:36even when down.

00:45:38That covers the immediate aspects

00:45:39of what may come next

00:45:40in the war.

00:45:41But what about the future?

00:45:42Much of the speculation

00:45:43focuses on a future

00:45:45where the war escalates,

00:45:46which seems to be

00:45:46the direction it's heading

00:45:47amidst Iran's supreme leader

00:45:49declaring that Trump's signature

00:45:51isn't worth the paper

00:45:52it's written on

00:45:52and the collapse

00:45:53of the 60-day agreement

00:45:54at the halfway point.

00:45:56The US certainly seems

00:45:57to be preparing

00:45:58for a longer battle.

00:45:59In a July 19th report,

00:46:01Ynet revealed

00:46:01there has been a buildup

00:46:02of US forces around Iran

00:46:04over the last few days

00:46:05as fighter jets

00:46:06and refueling aircraft

00:46:07have arrived in Israel.

00:46:09The same outlet says

00:46:10that more US forces

00:46:11have been deployed

00:46:12to the Gulf region

00:46:13and though Israel

00:46:14doesn't seem to be involved

00:46:15in this latest escalation,

00:46:17that situation could change

00:46:18at the drop of a hat.

00:46:19With the US midterm elections

00:46:21coming up,

00:46:21the Trump administration

00:46:22will want to keep

00:46:23fighting controlled,

00:46:24but we can already see

00:46:25how difficult that will be

00:46:26as fighting is already

00:46:27starting to spiral.

00:46:29It seems likely

00:46:30that we will see

00:46:30an even stronger force buildup

00:46:32if Iran conducts

00:46:33more retaliatory strikes

00:46:34of its own.

00:46:35Plus, remember the comments

00:46:36we shared from Masoud Pazeshkian

00:46:38right at the start of the video.

00:46:39Iran's president believes

00:46:41that his country

00:46:41is now embroiled

00:46:42in a full-scale war,

00:46:44which means the rhetoric

00:46:45is ramping up to the point

00:46:46where Iran says

00:46:47it's treating what's happening now

00:46:48as a matter of life

00:46:50and death

00:46:50for the ruling regime.

00:46:51Where that war will go

00:46:53remains to be seen.

00:46:54The US is starting

00:46:55to run low

00:46:56on air defense missiles

00:46:57and long-range munitions,

00:46:58as air news reports,

00:47:00which will be a problem

00:47:00if America intends

00:47:01to maintain the same strategy

00:47:03it's used up to this point.

00:47:04Either airstrikes

00:47:05would have to be scaled back

00:47:06to prevent stockpiles

00:47:07from being drained,

00:47:08or the US would have

00:47:09to supplement its aerial assault

00:47:11with other measures,

00:47:12perhaps including

00:47:13sending boots on the ground,

00:47:14if Pazeshkian is right

00:47:16and the conflict evolves

00:47:17into a full-scale war.

00:47:18AA suggests that the US

00:47:20is at the very least

00:47:21looking to intensify.

00:47:23The outlet reports

00:47:24on claims made

00:47:24by the Israeli public

00:47:25broadcaster Cannes,

00:47:27which claimed on July 19th

00:47:29that unnamed

00:47:29Israeli and US security forces

00:47:31had informed it

00:47:32that more was coming.

00:47:33What that means

00:47:34is something we will only

00:47:35find out in the future.

00:47:36As for the Gulf nations

00:47:37that are neighbors to Iran,

00:47:39they're embraced

00:47:39for more turmoil.

00:47:41In fact,

00:47:41they are already experiencing it.

00:47:43The US base that Iran struck

00:47:45was in Jordan,

00:47:45after all.

00:47:46Any nation that is within

00:47:48drone or missile range of Iran,

00:47:49and especially those

00:47:50that are in any way

00:47:51allied with the US,

00:47:52knows that it will see

00:47:53an uptick in attacks.

00:47:54Iran can hurt the US

00:47:56directly by targeting

00:47:57American bases in Gulf states.

00:47:59It can also pile pressure

00:48:00onto the US

00:48:01by attacking energy facilities

00:48:02and other infrastructure

00:48:03in these states,

00:48:04though such an approach

00:48:05would have to be very measured.

00:48:07Too much,

00:48:07and other Gulf states

00:48:08might feel compelled

00:48:09to join the US in its war.

00:48:11Iran's goal is to hit

00:48:12those states hard enough

00:48:13that they push for the US

00:48:14to negotiate once more.

00:48:16Kuwait,

00:48:17Saudi Arabia,

00:48:17and Jordan

00:48:18have already been hit,

00:48:19and that will just be the start

00:48:21if the war continues to escalate.

00:48:23As for an off-ramp,

00:48:24it's difficult to see

00:48:24where one could come from.

00:48:26Does one exist at all?

00:48:27That's the key question to ask,

00:48:29especially as the ramp

00:48:30that seemed to be in place

00:48:31has crumbled.

00:48:32The US will continue

00:48:34to hope that its strikes

00:48:35build on the Iranian regime's

00:48:36economic woes

00:48:37to the point that

00:48:38it's forced to capitulate.

00:48:40That regime has shown in the past

00:48:41that it will keep fighting,

00:48:43and all of its rhetoric suggests

00:48:44that a bigger fight

00:48:45than we've seen before

00:48:46is coming.

00:48:47It hopes that the leverage

00:48:48it holds over the Strait of Hormuz

00:48:49will force the US to pull back.

00:48:51Both sides have demands

00:48:53that the other seems

00:48:53unwilling to accept.

00:48:55That is the crux of the problem.

00:48:57As long as Iran

00:48:58has any sort of nuclear ambitions,

00:48:59it seems that the US will attack.

00:49:01If the US continues to attack,

00:49:03Iran won't negotiate,

00:49:04and it will launch

00:49:05the sorts of strikes

00:49:06that prompted the US revenge

00:49:08in the first place.

00:49:09There is only one thing

00:49:10we can say for sure.

00:49:11Nothing is certain.

00:49:14Each side seems convinced

00:49:15that it can wait

00:49:16the other one out.

00:49:16And though the US

00:49:17has already gone scorched earth

00:49:19with its revenge,

00:49:20Iran hasn't crumbled.

00:49:23They want to take out

00:49:24the US leader, me,

00:49:26US President Donald Trump

00:49:27declared after the fact,

00:49:28adding,

00:49:29I'm on every list

00:49:30I saw this morning.

00:49:31I'm on every single one

00:49:32of their lists,

00:49:33and so far,

00:49:34I guess I've been

00:49:34a little bit lucky.

00:49:36But that maybe

00:49:36doesn't last very long.

00:49:38What prompted this statement?

00:49:40Iran tried to assassinate Trump.

00:49:42While Trump was in Ankara,

00:49:44Turkey,

00:49:44where he met with NATO leaders,

00:49:46a plot was brewing

00:49:47in the darkest depths of Tehran.

00:49:49This was a chance

00:49:50to destroy Air Force One

00:49:52and take Trump

00:49:53out of the picture.

00:49:54But the US foiled the plot

00:49:55with one smart move,

00:49:57and what came next

00:49:58humiliated Iran,

00:49:59teaching the regime

00:50:00a simple lesson,

00:50:01make stupid choices,

00:50:03and win stupid prizes.

00:50:04It all started in Ankara,

00:50:06where Trump flew to take part

00:50:08in a NATO summit

00:50:09that included leaders

00:50:09from all over

00:50:10NATO's member nations.

00:50:11The gathering

00:50:12was supposed to be

00:50:13an opportunity

00:50:14for those leaders

00:50:15to build deeper ties

00:50:16and discuss what needed

00:50:17to be done

00:50:18about growing threats

00:50:19all over the world,

00:50:20including in Russia

00:50:21and the Gulf.

00:50:22But behind the scenes,

00:50:23something strange happened.

00:50:25Trump had flown into Ankara

00:50:27on the new version

00:50:28of Air Force One,

00:50:29who was gifted

00:50:29to the US by Qatar.

00:50:31That jet was already controversial.

00:50:33Trump has had to

00:50:34bat back accusations

00:50:35that the jet was a gift

00:50:36to him rather than the US.

00:50:38Plus,

00:50:39the jet would take a while

00:50:39to kit out

00:50:40with all the defensive equipment

00:50:41that is on board

00:50:42the previous Air Force One.

00:50:44Additional upgrades

00:50:45and enhancements

00:50:45are due in the fall,

00:50:46says the White House Press

00:50:47Secretary Carolyn Levitt.

00:50:49But they're not in place yet,

00:50:50and that may be the reason

00:50:52why Trump made

00:50:52a strange decision in Ankara.

00:50:54Though Trump flew into Ankara

00:50:56on the Qatari jet,

00:50:57he completed at least

00:50:58part of the return trip home

00:50:59on the older version

00:51:00of Air Force One

00:51:01that the jet

00:51:01is supposed to replace.

00:51:03Trump was nonchalant

00:51:04at the time.

00:51:05When asked why he made the switch,

00:51:06he simply replied

00:51:07that he wanted to fly

00:51:08on the other jet

00:51:08for old time's sake.

00:51:10But Trump was hiding something.

00:51:12The switch was made

00:51:13for a much bigger reason than that.

00:51:14Iran was trying

00:51:15to assassinate Trump.

00:51:17And through its proxies,

00:51:18the Iranian regime

00:51:19thought it had

00:51:20the perfect opportunity

00:51:21to get the American president.

00:51:22That's according to

00:51:23an explosive July 24th report

00:51:26in the New York Times,

00:51:27which says that

00:51:28Trump was forced

00:51:28to abruptly switch planes

00:51:30due to a credible

00:51:31emerging threat.

00:51:32Iranian proxy forces

00:51:33were actively targeting him

00:51:35and the Air Force One.

00:51:36That left the Secret Service

00:51:38with a key decision to make.

00:51:39Would they allow Trump

00:51:40to use the Qatari jet

00:51:41knowing that it isn't

00:51:42quite maxed out

00:51:43to the point where

00:51:43it could reliably

00:51:44deal with a threat?

00:51:45Or should the Secret Service

00:51:47switch Trump

00:51:47to the older version

00:51:48of Air Force One,

00:51:49which does have

00:51:50all of its defensive measures

00:51:51in place?

00:51:52Secret Service chose

00:51:53the latter option.

00:51:54And just like that,

00:51:55Iran was left with egg

00:51:56on its collective face

00:51:57as its grand assassination

00:51:59plans fell apart.

00:52:00We don't know

00:52:01a huge amount

00:52:01about the assassination plot,

00:52:03which isn't surprising.

00:52:04Iran certainly

00:52:05isn't going to announce

00:52:06precisely how it wants

00:52:07to take Trump

00:52:08out of the picture

00:52:08and the U.S. is cagey

00:52:10with the details

00:52:10because it doesn't want

00:52:11to reveal too much to Iran

00:52:13about how much

00:52:14it actually knows.

00:52:15However,

00:52:16we do know

00:52:16that the proxy forces

00:52:17that were involved

00:52:18in this assassination attempt

00:52:19weren't targeting

00:52:20the Qatari jet specifically,

00:52:22though that jet

00:52:22gave them an opportunity

00:52:23for a strike.

00:52:24They wanted to hit Trump

00:52:25and whatever aircraft

00:52:26he happened to be

00:52:27traveling in at the time.

00:52:28Beyond that,

00:52:29the White House

00:52:30has said little.

00:52:30No official briefing

00:52:32has been delivered

00:52:32to the press

00:52:33and the New York Times

00:52:34reveals that even

00:52:35key members of Congress

00:52:36and the administration

00:52:36weren't provided

00:52:37with any information

00:52:38beyond the switch

00:52:39being a precautionary measure.

00:52:41That turned out

00:52:42to be an understatement.

00:52:44Trump's life was at risk

00:52:45and the Secret Service

00:52:46had to act.

00:52:46One thing that we know

00:52:47for sure

00:52:48is that Iran hasn't been shy

00:52:49about making threats

00:52:50against Trump's life.

00:52:52The country's

00:52:53current Supreme Leader,

00:52:54Muaytaba Khamenei,

00:52:55posted an interesting

00:52:56statement to X

00:52:57in the wake

00:52:57of the assassination attempt,

00:52:59stating,

00:52:59We pledge to avenge

00:53:00your pure blood

00:53:01and the blood

00:53:02of all the martyrs

00:53:02of these two

00:53:03recent wars

00:53:04by taking revenge

00:53:06against the criminal,

00:53:07disgraceful murderers.

00:53:08This vengeance

00:53:09is what our nation

00:53:10is demanding

00:53:10and this must

00:53:11definitely be done.

00:53:13The younger Khamenei

00:53:14clearly wants revenge

00:53:15for the death

00:53:15of his father,

00:53:16Ali Khamenei,

00:53:17during the opening stages

00:53:18of Operation Epic Fury.

00:53:19And if the Supreme Leader

00:53:20demands it,

00:53:21the Iranian Revolutionary

00:53:22Guard Corps

00:53:23has to make it happen.

00:53:25Trump himself

00:53:25has long claimed

00:53:26to be on the Iranian

00:53:27regime's hit list,

00:53:28as you saw from the quote

00:53:29that opened the video.

00:53:30And Iran has tried

00:53:32something like this before.

00:53:33Back in 2024,

00:53:34a pair of Iran-linked

00:53:36plots against Trump's

00:53:37life were uncovered,

00:53:38Time Magazine reports.

00:53:39The first,

00:53:40which came to light

00:53:41in July 2024,

00:53:42involved a Pakistani man

00:53:43named Asif Merchant,

00:53:45who was arrested

00:53:46for a plot to kill

00:53:47several US politicians,

00:53:48with Trump being among them.

00:53:49Later in the year,

00:53:50Fahad Shaqari,

00:53:51who is an Afghan national,

00:53:52was arrested for reportedly

00:53:54being directed

00:53:54by Iran's government

00:53:55to create an assassination

00:53:56plan to take out Trump.

00:53:58Even now,

00:53:59the threats are still coming,

00:54:00and they're not just

00:54:01directed at Trump.

00:54:02On July 28,

00:54:03The Independent reported

00:54:04that Iran has released

00:54:05a concerning video

00:54:06entitled,

00:54:07Where to Kill Melania,

00:54:09which shows the first lady's

00:54:10motorcade traveling

00:54:11through New York City

00:54:12and actively tells

00:54:13freedom fighters

00:54:14to attack her.

00:54:16Not even Trump's son,

00:54:17Barron,

00:54:18has escaped the threats,

00:54:19as the video concludes,

00:54:20Barron Trump,

00:54:21wait for us.

00:54:23So if you're wondering

00:54:24how serious the threat

00:54:25posed to Trump

00:54:25in Ankara truly was,

00:54:27there can only be one answer,

00:54:28serious.

00:54:29Iran's regime

00:54:30is making it very clear

00:54:31that killing Trump

00:54:32and his family members

00:54:33is high on the agenda.

00:54:35As for how Iran

00:54:36might have done it,

00:54:37the mention of proxies

00:54:38is very revealing.

00:54:39Iran doesn't want

00:54:40to take out Trump directly.

00:54:41It knows that killing

00:54:42the sitting US president

00:54:43and taking direct responsibility

00:54:45for doing it

00:54:46would bring down

00:54:47a world of hurt

00:54:48and could even lead

00:54:49to the triggering

00:54:49of Article 5,

00:54:50bringing dozens

00:54:51of other nations

00:54:52into the war

00:54:52in the Gulf region.

00:54:54So Iran wants

00:54:54to use proxies,

00:54:56groups of militants

00:54:57outside of Iran,

00:54:58though funded

00:54:59and equipped

00:54:59by the regime

00:55:00that can launch attacks

00:55:01while granting Iran's regime

00:55:02plausible deniability.

00:55:04The most likely

00:55:05attack vector

00:55:06would be through

00:55:06the IRGC's Quds Force,

00:55:08which the Council

00:55:09on Foreign Relations

00:55:10describes as

00:55:11an expeditionary arm

00:55:12that partners with Iran's

00:55:13various regional militant groups.

00:55:15It's the Quds Force

00:55:16that coordinates

00:55:16with the likes of Hamas,

00:55:18the Houthis

00:55:18and Hezbollah,

00:55:19directing arms

00:55:20to the groups

00:55:21and delivering instructions

00:55:22from the supreme leader

00:55:23covering what Iran

00:55:23wants those groups to do.

00:55:25The Quds Force

00:55:26is no small group,

00:55:28specializing in spy work

00:55:29and subterfuge.

00:55:30The group

00:55:30has about 15,000 members

00:55:33and it has a long history

00:55:34of managing assassinations

00:55:36on behalf of Iran's regime.

00:55:37When Iran exploded

00:55:39into protest

00:55:39toward the end of 2025

00:55:41and into early 2026,

00:55:42it was the Quds Force

00:55:43that oversaw

00:55:44the assassinations

00:55:45of several key protesters

00:55:46to cause chaos in the ranks,

00:55:48reports Iran International.

00:55:50The Quds Force

00:55:51also oversaw

00:55:52a 2011 plot

00:55:53to kill Saudi ambassador

00:55:54to the US,

00:55:55Adel Al-Jabaya,

00:55:56with the goal being

00:55:57to use a Mexican drug cartel

00:55:59to carry out the assassination.

00:56:01Whenever Iran

00:56:02wants to create disruption,

00:56:03the fingerprints

00:56:04of the Quds Force

00:56:05are often found.

00:56:06And with decades

00:56:07of experience,

00:56:07it seems likely

00:56:08that the force

00:56:09was trying to activate

00:56:09militants in Turkey

00:56:11or a nearby country

00:56:12to organize a strike

00:56:13against Air Force One.

00:56:14Knowing the scale

00:56:15of the threat,

00:56:16the Secret Service

00:56:16made the call

00:56:17to switch jets.

00:56:18And here's why.

00:56:19The Qatari jet

00:56:20that is now being used

00:56:21as Air Force One

00:56:22lacks many of the

00:56:23defensive countermeasures

00:56:24that are installed

00:56:24on the previous vote.

00:56:25The New York Times

00:56:26revealed that

00:56:27in a July 9th piece

00:56:28where it stated

00:56:29that several officials

00:56:30told the outlet

00:56:30that the Qatari jet

00:56:32doesn't have the same

00:56:32anti-missile capabilities

00:56:34as the older Air Force One.

00:56:36Questions were being raised

00:56:37in 2025

00:56:37about the work

00:56:38being undertaken

00:56:39on the Qatari jet

00:56:40and whether that work

00:56:41would be enough

00:56:42to provide the required security.

00:56:44White House Communications

00:56:45Director Stephen Chung

00:56:46was asked about those measures

00:56:48following Trump's jet switch.

00:56:49He responded,

00:56:50The new Air Force One

00:56:51is a state-of-the-art aircraft

00:56:53that has been fitted

00:56:54with high-level security protocols

00:56:55that ensure the safety

00:56:56of the President

00:56:57and his staff.

00:56:58As the President

00:56:58has said recently,

00:56:59there are many enemies

00:57:00of America

00:57:01who have their sights on him

00:57:02and we use every tool

00:57:03at our disposal

00:57:04to address those threats.

00:57:05That statement

00:57:06doesn't reveal a whole lot,

00:57:07but the security protocols

00:57:09in place are clearly

00:57:10not at the level

00:57:11they need to be

00:57:11to protect the President's life.

00:57:13Contrast this

00:57:14with the older version

00:57:15of Air Force One.

00:57:16We know for sure

00:57:17that this older jet

00:57:18has an array of countermeasures

00:57:19designed to repel

00:57:20the sort of aerial attack

00:57:21that Iran and its proxies

00:57:22were likely planning.

00:57:23Many of those countermeasures

00:57:25are classified

00:57:25for obvious reasons.

00:57:26However,

00:57:27we do know

00:57:28that the older Air Force One

00:57:29incorporates electronic

00:57:30warfare suites

00:57:31for missile diversion,

00:57:32anti-surface-to-air

00:57:33missile tech,

00:57:34and is even able

00:57:35to handle the triggering

00:57:36of an electromagnetic pulse

00:57:38while in the air.

00:57:39Simple Flying adds

00:57:40that the jet

00:57:41has infrared countermeasures

00:57:42used for missile redirection,

00:57:44including several

00:57:45ANALQ-204 Matador jammers.

00:57:48Add to that

00:57:48the ability to hold

00:57:49up to 2,000 meals

00:57:51in its galleys

00:57:51and aerial refueling capabilities,

00:57:53and you have a jet

00:57:54built to stay in the sky

00:57:55for the long haul

00:57:56while defending itself

00:57:57against threats.

00:57:58In serious cases,

00:57:59the U.S. also deploys

00:58:00fighter jets

00:58:01to flank Air Force One,

00:58:02though it seems unlikely

00:58:03they were deployed

00:58:04in Ankara.

00:58:05With all of this in mind,

00:58:06it's obvious

00:58:07why the Secret Service

00:58:08chose to have Trump

00:58:09switch his jets,

00:58:10but it's what came next

00:58:11that's more shocking.

00:58:12The timing of this

00:58:13assassination attempt

00:58:14is key,

00:58:15and you're going to learn

00:58:16why in a moment.

00:58:17First,

00:58:17this is a reminder

00:58:18that you're watching

00:58:19the military show.

00:58:20We bring you the full picture,

00:58:21not just the headlines,

00:58:23so hit subscribe

00:58:23and enable notifications

00:58:25if you want to stay

00:58:26ahead of the curve.

00:58:29Let's come back

00:58:29to the Ankara summit.

00:58:31That meeting was held

00:58:32between July 7th and 8th,

00:58:33Do you remember

00:58:34what else happened

00:58:35on those dates?

00:58:36The U.S. started a new

00:58:37round of airstrikes in Iran.

00:58:39Though Trump claimed

00:58:40that this round of strikes

00:58:41started as revenge

00:58:42for Iran's bombing

00:58:43of merchant vessels

00:58:44in the Strait of Hormuz,

00:58:45the timeline seems

00:58:46to match almost perfectly.

00:58:48July 8th marked

00:58:49the second day

00:58:50of what would become

00:58:50almost a full two weeks

00:58:51of strikes against Iran.

00:58:53That second day of strikes

00:58:54was also the second day

00:58:56of the Ankara summit,

00:58:57and it's likely that Trump

00:58:58would have received word

00:58:59of the threat posed

00:58:59to his life by that point.

00:59:01On July 8th alone,

00:59:03the U.S. launched missiles

00:59:04and bombs at Iran's port city

00:59:05of Bandar Abbas,

00:59:06which is home

00:59:07to an Iranian naval base,

00:59:08as well as at the southern

00:59:09coastal city of Sirik

00:59:11and the Bushir province,

00:59:12which is home to Iran's

00:59:13major nuclear power plant complex.

00:59:16This was revenge,

00:59:17just as Trump said,

00:59:18but perhaps not for what

00:59:19was happening

00:59:19in the Strait of Hormuz.

00:59:21Trump may have taken

00:59:22the threat to his life

00:59:23personally,

00:59:23as well as considering

00:59:24it an attempt by Iran

00:59:26to restart a conflict

00:59:27that had been subject

00:59:27to a shaky ceasefire

00:59:28for several months.

00:59:30Proxies be damned.

00:59:31The U.S. knows

00:59:32that Iran is behind

00:59:33these groups,

00:59:34met the assassination attempt

00:59:35with fire from the skies,

00:59:37teaching Iran a crucial lesson

00:59:38about poking the bear.

00:59:40Just don't do it, Iran.

00:59:42Even a hint

00:59:43that you want to assassinate Trump

00:59:44is enough to spark a firestorm

00:59:46across the entire country.

00:59:47The 13 days of strikes

00:59:49that followed Iran's

00:59:50assassination attempt

00:59:51have now ended,

00:59:52sort of.

00:59:53July 26th marked

00:59:54a third day of a loose ceasefire

00:59:56that is now in place

00:59:56to allow the U.S. and Iran

00:59:58to restart negotiations.

00:59:59This doesn't mean

01:00:00that the U.S. is willing

01:00:01to forgive and forget.

01:00:03As Ambassador Mike Waltz

01:00:04said on July 26th,

01:00:06we'll see over the next

01:00:07coming days,

01:00:07but make no mistake,

01:00:09additional military assets

01:00:10are moving into the region.

01:00:11The regime should believe

01:00:13the president when he says

01:00:14they're locked and loaded

01:00:15and where all options

01:00:16are on the table.

01:00:17In other words,

01:00:1813 consecutive days of strikes

01:00:19in retaliation for Iran's

01:00:21assassination attempt

01:00:22amounted to a warning shot.

01:00:23The regime gets out of line

01:00:25or tries something

01:00:26to harm Trump again,

01:00:27the next round of strikes

01:00:28will be even more devastating.

01:00:30Still,

01:00:31there's a ceasefire

01:00:32in place for now.

01:00:33Spokesperson for Iran's

01:00:34health ministry,

01:00:35Hossein Kerminpour,

01:00:37even marked the first day

01:00:38of the ceasefire

01:00:38with a social media post

01:00:40where he said,

01:00:40It seems our dear Iran

01:00:42had a peaceful night

01:00:43last night

01:00:43and no part of its body

01:00:45was struck or hit.

01:00:46Iran's body is intact.

01:00:47Iran's head is healthy.

01:00:49Even Trump seems determined

01:00:50to get negotiations

01:00:51back on course,

01:00:52despite what almost

01:00:53happened to him.

01:00:54Trump wants to push forward

01:00:55and get a deal over the line.

01:00:57On July 28th,

01:00:58Al Jazeera reported

01:00:59the US president

01:01:00as saying that

01:01:00Washington and Iran

01:01:01engaged in

01:01:02very friendly negotiations

01:01:04following the pausing

01:01:05of military strikes,

01:01:06adding that there was

01:01:07a good chance

01:01:08of real progress

01:01:09being made in the talks

01:01:10for the first time in weeks.

01:01:11So the ship has been righted.

01:01:13Everything is on course again.

01:01:15The only thing

01:01:16that could end

01:01:16this new ceasefire

01:01:17is if Iran does

01:01:18something stupid,

01:01:19like say,

01:01:19launching a secret attack

01:01:20against a US military base

01:01:22in the Gulf region.

01:01:23We'll give you three tries

01:01:24to guess what Iran just did.

01:01:26In a ridiculous move

01:01:27that seems to have been

01:01:28designed to derail negotiations

01:01:29that were going well,

01:01:30even after an assassination attempt,

01:01:33Iran launched a surprise attack

01:01:34against US forces

01:01:35on the evening of July 28th.

01:01:37Four ballistic missiles

01:01:38were launched

01:01:39at a US base in Jordan,

01:01:41US Central Command reported.

01:01:42And though all of the missiles

01:01:44appear to have been intercepted,

01:01:45with Central Command adding

01:01:46that the unwarranted attacks

01:01:48against US forces

01:01:49were not successful,

01:01:50these strikes mean

01:01:51that a war that seemed

01:01:52to be simmering down

01:01:52has once again escalated.

01:01:54The news broke

01:01:55about these strikes

01:01:56during the production

01:01:57of this video.

01:01:58By the time you're watching,

01:01:59the US may well have retaliated

01:02:00with attacks of its own,

01:02:02bringing an end

01:02:02to the latest attempt

01:02:03at a ceasefire.

01:02:05Trump had met

01:02:05with Israeli Prime Minister

01:02:06Benjamin Netanyahu

01:02:07at the White House

01:02:08just hours before Iran

01:02:10launched its secret attack,

01:02:11which may offer a hint

01:02:12to Iran's motivation.

01:02:14It may not be

01:02:14an assassination plot,

01:02:15but we're willing to bet

01:02:16that the US will want retribution,

01:02:18just as it did

01:02:19after foiling Iran's attempts

01:02:21to take out Air Force One.

01:02:23Returning to the assassination attempt,

01:02:25the US hasn't let the whole thing be.

01:02:26In addition to launching

01:02:27days of attacks

01:02:28against Iran in retaliation,

01:02:30US authorities have launched

01:02:31an investigation

01:02:32into the assassination attempt.

01:02:34However,

01:02:34that investigation

01:02:35doesn't seem to be focused on Iran.

01:02:37Instead,

01:02:38FBI agents are actively

01:02:39seeking information

01:02:40from government officials

01:02:41as they look into

01:02:42the possibility of a leak

01:02:43that may have given Iran

01:02:44cause to attempt

01:02:45the killing of Trump

01:02:46in the first place.

01:02:47In a July 15th report,

01:02:49the New York Times revealed

01:02:50that FBI agents

01:02:51spoke to several people

01:02:52who flew aboard

01:02:53the Qatari Air Force One

01:02:54in Ankara

01:02:54and have gone so far

01:02:55as to ask some of those officials

01:02:57to hand over their phones

01:02:58so that the FBI

01:02:59can check them

01:03:00for evidence of a leak.

01:03:01One official briefed

01:03:03on the investigation

01:03:03who spoke to the New York Times

01:03:05on condition of anonymity

01:03:06said that some of those

01:03:07whom investigators

01:03:08have tried to reach

01:03:09include the Secret Service agents

01:03:10who traveled with Trump.

01:03:12Those officials

01:03:13will have referred

01:03:13any outside requests

01:03:14to their lawyers

01:03:15per instructions

01:03:16from the Secret Service leadership.

01:03:17However,

01:03:18the question now has to be asked.

01:03:19Is this just standard procedure

01:03:21or does the FBI believe

01:03:22that a member of the Secret Service

01:03:24may have leaked information

01:03:25to Iran and its proxies?

01:03:27The Trump administration

01:03:28has also taken

01:03:29an interesting approach

01:03:30to the aftermath

01:03:30of the assassination attempt.

01:03:32It's turned part

01:03:33of its collective fury

01:03:34toward journalists

01:03:35from the New York Times

01:03:36who are among several

01:03:37who reported

01:03:38on the security concerns

01:03:39related to the Qatari Air Force One

01:03:41we mentioned.

01:03:42That investigation

01:03:43is being led by

01:03:43FBI Director Kash Patel

01:03:45suggesting that

01:03:46the Trump administration

01:03:47believes that any reporting

01:03:48on Air Force One

01:03:49needs to be monitored

01:03:50so as to not provide clues

01:03:51about weaknesses to the enemy.

01:03:53This secondary investigation

01:03:55raises questions

01:03:56about press freedom

01:03:57as well as forcing us

01:03:58to ask the obvious.

01:03:59If the White House

01:04:00knew that the Qatari Air Force One

01:04:02wasn't ready yet,

01:04:03why was it using it?

01:04:04We may never get an answer

01:04:05to that question,

01:04:06but for now,

01:04:07Trump is safe.

01:04:08The older Air Force One

01:04:09did what it was always designed to do

01:04:11and Iran's attempts

01:04:11to assassinate via proxies failed.

01:04:14However,

01:04:14the conflict in the Gulf

01:04:15is far from over.

01:04:17Iran's surprise attack

01:04:18in Jordan

01:04:19has reignited the war

01:04:20after just a few days of calm.

01:04:22More is coming,

01:04:23more strikes in Iran,

01:04:24more Iranian responses

01:04:25and perhaps even more attempts

01:04:26on Trump's life.

01:04:28Iran's regime

01:04:29may have been humiliated

01:04:30this time around,

01:04:31but that doesn't mean

01:04:32it won't try again

01:04:33if the opportunity

01:04:34presents itself.

01:04:36For years,

01:04:37Iran has been building.

01:04:40Buried deep within a mountain,

01:04:42it's been creating

01:04:42a new nuclear site

01:04:44that is hidden from view.

01:04:45Hidden,

01:04:46but not as secret

01:04:47as Iran wanted it to be.

01:04:49Now,

01:04:49Iran's nuclear pickaxe mountain

01:04:51has been exposed,

01:04:53making it the number one target

01:04:55on earth

01:04:56for the US

01:04:56and the Trump administration.

01:04:58But the regime believes

01:04:59this mountain

01:05:00is indestructible,

01:05:02that it's buried so deep

01:05:03into the mountain

01:05:04that there is no way

01:05:05that the US can hit it.

01:05:07America responds,

01:05:08hold my £30,000

01:05:10bunker-busting bomb.

01:05:11It all started

01:05:13with a threat.

01:05:14As Iran continues

01:05:15to attack shipping

01:05:16in the Strait of Hormuz,

01:05:17and as these attacks

01:05:18have started to enter

01:05:19the Red Sea

01:05:20via the Houthis,

01:05:21and perhaps even

01:05:22the Caspian Sea,

01:05:24US President Donald Trump

01:05:25says that America

01:05:26is looking at

01:05:27one of the biggest targets

01:05:28on the Iranian mainland.

01:05:30Pickaxe Mountain

01:05:31is in America's sights

01:05:32because this mountain

01:05:33is home to a nuclear site

01:05:35buried deep underground.

01:05:36Trump's warning

01:05:37is clear.

01:05:39End the Hormuz blockade

01:05:40or the US will bring bombs

01:05:42to a pickaxe fight.

01:05:44We'll be hitting that area

01:05:45probably pretty soon,

01:05:47and there's not a thing

01:05:48they can do about it,

01:05:49Trump said on July 21st

01:05:51as he sat alongside

01:05:52Lebanon's President

01:05:53Joseph Aoun

01:05:54at the White House.

01:05:55Aoun was there

01:05:56to try to secure

01:05:57some sort of stability

01:05:58for his country

01:05:59following months

01:06:00of fighting

01:06:00between Israel

01:06:01and the Iran-backed

01:06:02Hezbollah militant group

01:06:04on his country's territory.

01:06:06Instead,

01:06:07he got a front-row seat

01:06:08to Trump making it clear

01:06:09to the world

01:06:10that this stability

01:06:11will come through firepower.

01:06:13We follow the material.

01:06:14That's where the action is,

01:06:15Trump declared,

01:06:16before repeating his threat

01:06:17that the US

01:06:18is going to hit

01:06:18Pickaxe Mountain

01:06:19very heavily.

01:06:21Questions abound.

01:06:22Could the US

01:06:23hit this seemingly

01:06:24indestructible site?

01:06:26Would it?

01:06:27Why?

01:06:27But perhaps most importantly,

01:06:29and the question

01:06:30that we'll start with,

01:06:31what is Pickaxe Mountain?

01:06:33On the surface,

01:06:34it appears to be

01:06:34one of the many mountains

01:06:35and hills

01:06:36that dot the Iranian mainland.

01:06:38Certainly not nondescript,

01:06:39but more a landmark

01:06:40than some sort

01:06:41of threatening military site.

01:06:43And that was the case

01:06:44for decades

01:06:45before Iran's regime

01:06:46started building.

01:06:47Today,

01:06:48Pickaxe Mountain

01:06:49isn't just a mountain.

01:06:50It's a sprawling

01:06:51nuclear site

01:06:52that is believed

01:06:52to be one of the most

01:06:53secure facilities

01:06:54in all of the Middle East.

01:06:56Iran has spent years

01:06:57building vast tunnel complexes

01:06:59dozens of meters

01:07:00underground,

01:07:01at what CBS News calls

01:07:02an extension

01:07:03of the Natanz nuclear facility

01:07:05that the US hit

01:07:06both during the summer of 2025

01:07:08and during Operation Epic Fury.

01:07:10But Pickaxe Mountain

01:07:11is shaping up

01:07:12to be far more

01:07:13than a basic extension.

01:07:14This isn't like

01:07:15adding a garage

01:07:16to a five-bedroom house.

01:07:18Iran has spent

01:07:19the last few years

01:07:19developing this facility

01:07:20into one that has

01:07:21the potential

01:07:22to rival Natanz

01:07:23or any of the other

01:07:24nuclear facilities in Iran

01:07:25in both size and scope.

01:07:27Work started at the site

01:07:28in 2020,

01:07:29following a fire

01:07:30at the Natanz nuclear facility

01:07:32that clued Iran's regime

01:07:33into the importance

01:07:34of having several facilities,

01:07:36each serving as fail-safes

01:07:37for the others.

01:07:39Time magazine reports

01:07:40that this fire

01:07:40that served

01:07:41as the Pickaxe Mountain

01:07:42catalyst

01:07:42was actually an act

01:07:44of sabotage,

01:07:45providing even more incentive

01:07:46for the creation

01:07:47of a new site.

01:07:48After all,

01:07:49if Natanz could be hit once,

01:07:50it could be hit again.

01:07:51The US and Israel

01:07:53went on to prove Iran right

01:07:54in both 2025 and 2026

01:07:57with bunker-busting bombs.

01:07:59Initially,

01:08:00the tunnels being dug

01:08:01into Pickaxe Mountain

01:08:02were intended to serve

01:08:03as replacements

01:08:04for the above-ground

01:08:05Natanz centrifuge

01:08:06assembly facility

01:08:07that had fallen victim

01:08:08to the fire

01:08:09and claimed sabotage.

01:08:10Again,

01:08:11a smart move by Iran.

01:08:12Take what was once

01:08:13accessible underground

01:08:14and you make it much harder

01:08:16for saboteurs

01:08:17to get to it.

01:08:17The new site

01:08:18is close to Natanz,

01:08:20just two kilometers away.

01:08:21As for how deep the site goes,

01:08:23that's another

01:08:24of the big questions.

01:08:25James Acton,

01:08:26who is the co-director

01:08:27of the Nuclear Policy Program

01:08:28at the Carnegie Endowment

01:08:30for International Peace,

01:08:31said,

01:08:31It's a very deep facility.

01:08:33We don't know exactly how deep,

01:08:35but it's very likely

01:08:36at least 100 meters deep.

01:08:38He also adds

01:08:39a worrying warning

01:08:40for the US.

01:08:41There's just no way

01:08:42to destroy this facility.

01:08:44Iran has tried its best

01:08:45to feed into that opinion

01:08:46by erecting defenses

01:08:47around Pickaxe Mountain.

01:08:49Beyond the facility

01:08:50being at least

01:08:50100 meters underground,

01:08:52the mountain itself

01:08:53is protected by

01:08:53several anti-aircraft batteries.

01:08:56Those batteries

01:08:57are likely still in place.

01:08:58Unlike several

01:08:59of Iran's nuclear sites,

01:09:00Pickaxe Mountain

01:09:01has yet to be touched

01:09:02by US airstrikes,

01:09:03suggesting that the air defenses

01:09:05at the site

01:09:05are still in place.

01:09:07Those defenses

01:09:07could pose a threat

01:09:08to any American bombers

01:09:10that head to Iran's nuclear site.

01:09:12Pickaxe Mountain

01:09:12is also far from small.

01:09:15Satellite photos

01:09:15show multiple entrances

01:09:17into the facility,

01:09:18suggesting that it sprawls

01:09:19across 2.7 square kilometers.

01:09:22But the US has to deal

01:09:23with that site.

01:09:24According to Fortune,

01:09:26Iran intends to use it

01:09:27for much more

01:09:28than storing centrifuges.

01:09:29Due to the scale

01:09:30of the project,

01:09:31Pickaxe Mountain

01:09:32may end up being a site

01:09:33where Iran enriches uranium.

01:09:35This, in theory,

01:09:36could also make it a site

01:09:37where Iran produces

01:09:38a nuclear weapon.

01:09:39The one caveat

01:09:41to all of this is simple.

01:09:42There is no evidence

01:09:43that Iran has started

01:09:44enriching uranium

01:09:45or engaging in any other

01:09:46nuclear activities

01:09:47at Pickaxe Mountain

01:09:48yet.

01:09:50Trump himself

01:09:50said as much earlier in July,

01:09:52claiming that the US

01:09:53was monitoring the site

01:09:54but could see no evidence

01:09:55of nuclear activity.

01:09:57The Institute for Science

01:09:58and International Security

01:10:00or ISIS

01:10:01concurs

01:10:01as its satellite photos

01:10:03showcase a site

01:10:04that is still under construction

01:10:05rather than one

01:10:06that is being used

01:10:07in any operational capacity.

01:10:09However,

01:10:10that might be Iran's goal.

01:10:12Though Esmail Bagai,

01:10:13who is the spokesperson

01:10:14for Iran's foreign ministry,

01:10:16also claims

01:10:16that there is no nuclear action

01:10:17at the site,

01:10:19ISIS hedges its own bet

01:10:20with the word

01:10:21unclear.

01:10:22It remains unclear

01:10:23when Pickaxe Mountain

01:10:24could be operational.

01:10:26It's also unclear

01:10:27if Iran still plans

01:10:28on installing

01:10:28a large-scale

01:10:29assembly facility

01:10:30given the destruction

01:10:31of Iran's centrifuge program,

01:10:33including Iran's ability

01:10:34to make centrifuge components

01:10:36needed for an assembly plant,

01:10:37the group says

01:10:38in its assessment.

01:10:39The conclusion,

01:10:40nothing seems to be happening

01:10:42at Pickaxe Mountain

01:10:43right now,

01:10:43but this is an underground base.

01:10:45Whatever lies beneath the mountain

01:10:47is hidden from view.

01:10:48And for all anybody knows,

01:10:49Iran may have started

01:10:50building tunnels

01:10:51from the mountain

01:10:52to Natanz itself.

01:10:53Perhaps there is a transfer

01:10:55of nuclear material

01:10:56happening right now

01:10:56and nobody is the wiser

01:10:58because satellite photos

01:10:59can only pick up

01:11:00what's happening above ground.

01:11:02That may be conjecture

01:11:03on our part,

01:11:03but it's also a possibility.

01:11:05We now have a decent idea

01:11:06of what Pickaxe Mountain is,

01:11:08but questions still remain.

01:11:10Could the US hit the site?

01:11:11And even if it can,

01:11:12would it?

01:11:13We'll dig into the answers

01:11:14to those questions

01:11:15along with exploring

01:11:16what this is really all about

01:11:17in a moment.

01:11:18First,

01:11:18this is a quick reminder

01:11:19that you are watching

01:11:20The Military Show.

01:11:21If you're getting insight

01:11:22from our channel,

01:11:23now is the perfect time

01:11:24to hit subscribe

01:11:25and enable notifications

01:11:27to ensure that you see

01:11:28what we have coming next.

01:11:31So,

01:11:32the big question,

01:11:33could the US

01:11:34hit Pickaxe Mountain

01:11:35hard enough

01:11:36to do the level of damage

01:11:37needed to take

01:11:38the site offline.

01:11:40US Secretary of War

01:11:41Pete Hegseth

01:11:42seems to think so.

01:11:43When asked this very question,

01:11:45Hegseth responded,

01:11:46A lot of our capabilities

01:11:48are classified,

01:11:49before adding,

01:11:50but if anybody in the world

01:11:51can reach anything

01:11:52on God's green earth,

01:11:53it's the United States military,

01:11:55the most powerful military

01:11:56in the world.

01:11:57Vague

01:11:57is the politest word

01:11:58we can use

01:11:59to describe that statement,

01:12:00as Hegseth offers

01:12:01little in the way

01:12:02of an actual strategy

01:12:03for attacking Pickaxe Mountain.

01:12:04And there's a good reason

01:12:06why the Secretary of War

01:12:07seems cagey.

01:12:08This mountain

01:12:09is a tough nut to crack.

01:12:11Recall Acton's claim

01:12:12that it would be impossible

01:12:13to hit a bunker

01:12:14so deep underground.

01:12:15Acton supplemented

01:12:16that claim

01:12:17by pointing out

01:12:17that the US

01:12:18could attack the entrances

01:12:19and exits

01:12:20to Pickaxe Mountain,

01:12:21which offers a clue

01:12:22to the approach

01:12:23that might be taken.

01:12:24But before that,

01:12:25there is more

01:12:25that makes this nuclear site

01:12:26difficult to take down.

01:12:28DW points out

01:12:29that being buried

01:12:30100 meters or more

01:12:31underground

01:12:32would mean that

01:12:32Pickaxe Mountain

01:12:33is the deepest

01:12:34of all the facilities

01:12:35that Iran has built so far.

01:12:37That, in turn,

01:12:38would make it

01:12:38much more difficult

01:12:39to damage

01:12:40with the types of airstrikes

01:12:41that the US has conducted

01:12:42against Natanz

01:12:43and other nuclear sites.

01:12:45The US and Hegseth

01:12:46would counter this issue

01:12:47by pointing out

01:12:48that America

01:12:48has bunker-busting bombs.

01:12:50However,

01:12:51whether even the largest

01:12:52and most powerful

01:12:53of those bombs

01:12:53could destroy a facility

01:12:54that is buried

01:12:55as deeply

01:12:56as the one located

01:12:57at Pickaxe Mountain

01:12:58remains to be seen.

01:13:00In theory,

01:13:01it could happen.

01:13:01But for the US

01:13:03to enjoy any success

01:13:04at all,

01:13:05it would need to deploy

01:13:06the biggest

01:13:06of its bunker-busters,

01:13:07the GBU-57

01:13:09Massive Ordnance Penetrator

01:13:11or MOP.

01:13:12Designed specifically

01:13:13for targets

01:13:14like Pickaxe Mountain,

01:13:15this monster of a bomb

01:13:16weighs 13,600 kilograms

01:13:18and is capable

01:13:20of penetrating

01:13:20hardened and buried

01:13:22targets deep underground.

01:13:23The warhead attached

01:13:25to the MOP

01:13:25weighs between

01:13:262,082 and 2,600 kilograms,

01:13:29Army recognition points out.

01:13:30So the US

01:13:31wouldn't be delivering

01:13:3213,600 kilograms

01:13:34of pure firepower.

01:13:35About a sixth

01:13:36of the MOP

01:13:36actually does the damage.

01:13:38But up to 2,600 kilograms

01:13:40detonating inside

01:13:41an enclosed facility

01:13:42is more than enough

01:13:43to cause severe

01:13:44structural damage.

01:13:45However,

01:13:46it's penetration

01:13:47that really matters here

01:13:48and that's where

01:13:49the US runs into a challenge.

01:13:51The MOP

01:13:52can penetrate

01:13:52up to 60 meters

01:13:53through rock

01:13:54or reinforced concrete.

01:13:56That's 40 meters

01:13:57short of the

01:13:58Pickaxe Mountain target.

01:13:59If this is the case,

01:14:01then what can the US

01:14:02do to ensure

01:14:03that it takes out

01:14:03the facility?

01:14:04The obvious answer

01:14:05is repeat strikes,

01:14:07relying on the accuracy

01:14:08of the MOP,

01:14:09which has a circular error

01:14:10probable within a few meters,

01:14:12to do the rest of the work.

01:14:13This would be

01:14:14the simplest strategy.

01:14:16Hit Pickaxe Mountain

01:14:17once to penetrate

01:14:18up to 60 meters deep,

01:14:19then hit the exact same spot

01:14:21again to penetrate

01:14:22into the facility itself.

01:14:24The US would need

01:14:25to take care of

01:14:26the air defenses

01:14:27surrounding the facility

01:14:28to make this approach feasible

01:14:29and there is potential

01:14:30for things to go wrong.

01:14:32Missing the target

01:14:33the second time around

01:14:34would necessitate

01:14:35repeated runs

01:14:36until the US can feel certain

01:14:38that it has hit

01:14:39Iran's underground facility.

01:14:40That's risky

01:14:41and expensive.

01:14:42Each MOP costs

01:14:43millions of dollars

01:14:44and Iran only needs

01:14:46one air defense unit

01:14:47to score a direct hit

01:14:48to make the strike

01:14:49catastrophic for the US.

01:14:51It would also be

01:14:52difficult to determine

01:14:53just how much damage

01:14:54is done, if any.

01:14:55Pickaxe Mountain

01:14:56site is underground

01:14:57so it's not exactly easy

01:14:59to assess the damage

01:15:00using satellite photo.

01:15:01But perhaps there is

01:15:02another option.

01:15:04Acton touched on it already.

01:15:05Strike the exits

01:15:06and entrances.

01:15:08ISIS notes that

01:15:09Pickaxe Mountain

01:15:10appears to have

01:15:11two pairs of

01:15:12above ground entrances

01:15:13that would make

01:15:14obvious targets

01:15:15for the US

01:15:15and its massive

01:15:16bunker busters.

01:15:17The same group

01:15:18also points out

01:15:19that attacks from the past

01:15:20could inform America's

01:15:22approach to Pickaxe Mountain.

01:15:23In several cases

01:15:24the US has struck

01:15:25ventilation shafts

01:15:27which are weak points

01:15:28that could allow

01:15:28a weapon like the MOP

01:15:29to penetrate deeper

01:15:30than it otherwise would

01:15:31when hitting the ground.

01:15:33ISIS also points

01:15:34to above ground

01:15:35power supply lines

01:15:36which are needed

01:15:37to keep the facility running.

01:15:39So an approach

01:15:39starts to form.

01:15:40Smaller bunker buster bombs

01:15:42could collapse the routes

01:15:43in and out

01:15:44of Pickaxe Mountain

01:15:45as airstrikes

01:15:46take out the visible

01:15:47power supplies.

01:15:48The ventilation shafts

01:15:49are more of a challenge.

01:15:51Nobody other than Iran

01:15:52has the schematics

01:15:53for the Pickaxe Mountain

01:15:54site.

01:15:54However America

01:15:56does have schematics

01:15:57for previous sites

01:15:57built by the

01:15:58Armad Nuclear Weapons

01:15:59Programme

01:16:00ISIS points out.

01:16:02Assumptions about

01:16:02construction could be made

01:16:04and even if the MOPs

01:16:05don't hit the vents

01:16:06the damage done

01:16:07above ground

01:16:08could be enough

01:16:09to shut the facility down

01:16:10granting America

01:16:11time to take repeated

01:16:12cracks at getting

01:16:13the job done.

01:16:14Where there's a will

01:16:15there's a way.

01:16:16Scratch that

01:16:17where there's a MOP

01:16:18there's a way.

01:16:19With a theoretical

01:16:20approach in place

01:16:21we come back to

01:16:22the other big question

01:16:23that we posed earlier.

01:16:24Would the US

01:16:25strike Pickaxe Mountain?

01:16:27Trump has claimed

01:16:28that the mountain

01:16:28is in America's sights

01:16:30though he has also

01:16:30suggested that the US

01:16:31would strike if the

01:16:32situation in the

01:16:33Strait of Hormuz

01:16:34gets worse.

01:16:35So once again

01:16:35we come down to

01:16:36the main point of

01:16:37leverage that Iran

01:16:38has in its fight

01:16:39against the US.

01:16:40Blockading Hormuz

01:16:41has been extremely

01:16:42effective for Iran.

01:16:43This single waterway

01:16:45is one of the world's

01:16:45busiest shipping channels

01:16:47with about 20%

01:16:48of the oil and

01:16:49liquefied natural gas

01:16:50sold around the globe

01:16:51moving through this

01:16:52strait.

01:16:53Blockading the strait

01:16:54has allowed Iran to

01:16:55put pressure on

01:16:56dozens of countries

01:16:57through increased oil

01:16:58prices which in turn

01:16:59puts pressure on the

01:17:00US to halt its

01:17:01attacks as those

01:17:02affected countries

01:17:03come calling.

01:17:04In a July 24th report

01:17:06the US Naval Institute

01:17:07said that traffic

01:17:08through the strait

01:17:09remains low

01:17:09following what was

01:17:10then the 13th

01:17:11straight day of

01:17:12renewed US strikes

01:17:13against Iran.

01:17:14There were just

01:17:1578 transits between

01:17:16July 13th and 19th

01:17:18compared to 174

01:17:20the week before.

01:17:21Still, Trump threatens

01:17:22that Hormuz has to

01:17:23get worse before

01:17:24Pickaxe Mountain is

01:17:25hit.

01:17:25It just got worse.

01:17:27On July 26th

01:17:28the news broke that

01:17:29an oil tanker had

01:17:30exploded in the

01:17:31strait of Hormuz

01:17:32after hitting a naval

01:17:33mine that Iran has

01:17:34placed in the waterway

01:17:35to prevent

01:17:36unauthorized transit.

01:17:38Iranian authorities

01:17:39claim that the tanker

01:17:40deviated from the

01:17:41designated navigational

01:17:42route and it paid

01:17:43the price.

01:17:44These routes are taken

01:17:45by tankers that have

01:17:46received permission

01:17:47for transit from Iran

01:17:48and a burning and

01:17:49broken oil tanker is

01:17:50the surest sign yet

01:17:52that Iran is willing

01:17:53to outright destroy

01:17:54merchant ships that

01:17:55don't follow its rules.

01:17:57As this tanker

01:17:58destruction happened

01:17:59Iranian proxies in

01:18:00the Red Sea have also

01:18:01started attacking

01:18:02merchant shipping.

01:18:03And now the Caspian

01:18:04Sea may be coming

01:18:05into play.

01:18:06Also on July 26th

01:18:08Al Jazeera reported

01:18:09that Ukraine had

01:18:10struck an Iranian

01:18:11commercial ship in

01:18:12the Caspian Sea.

01:18:13Iran's regime

01:18:14immediately summoned

01:18:15Ukrainian diplomats

01:18:17over the action

01:18:17claiming that it was

01:18:18a hostile and criminal

01:18:19act.

01:18:20Ukraine says it's

01:18:21within its rights

01:18:22to attack Iranian

01:18:23merchant vessels

01:18:24due to many of those

01:18:24ships carrying weapons

01:18:25and supplies that

01:18:26Russia uses in its

01:18:28invasion of Ukraine.

01:18:29A powder keg has

01:18:30formed and the fuse

01:18:31is tiny.

01:18:32A fight between Iran

01:18:34and Ukraine may be

01:18:35about to explode

01:18:35and it's clear that

01:18:37Iran isn't going to

01:18:37heed Trump's warnings

01:18:38to back away from

01:18:39Hormuz.

01:18:40All of the pieces

01:18:41are in place for a

01:18:42US strike against

01:18:43Pickaxe Mountain

01:18:44now.

01:18:44After everything that

01:18:45has happened in the

01:18:46days since Trump

01:18:46delivered his warning

01:18:47the US may well be

01:18:49planning that strike

01:18:50as we speak.

01:18:51Still we can't

01:18:52ignore the fact that

01:18:53most seem to believe

01:18:54that Pickaxe Mountain

01:18:55isn't operational yet.

01:18:56That raises questions

01:18:57about the true value

01:18:58of such a strike for

01:18:59the US as it tries to

01:19:00blunt what it believes

01:19:01to be Iran's

01:19:02burgeoning nuclear

01:19:03capabilities.

01:19:04It's no secret that

01:19:05despite all of the

01:19:06clamour about the

01:19:07Strait of Hormuz

01:19:07it's Iran's nuclear

01:19:08program that is

01:19:10America's biggest

01:19:10bone of contention.

01:19:12That program hasn't

01:19:13delivered a nuclear

01:19:14weapon.

01:19:15It's unclear if Iran

01:19:16even intends to

01:19:17develop a nuke or

01:19:18if it's creating

01:19:19enriched uranium to

01:19:20threaten the

01:19:20possibility without

01:19:21following through.

01:19:23And given Iran's

01:19:24long history of

01:19:25engaging in secret

01:19:25nuclear projects the

01:19:27US can never be

01:19:28quite sure about

01:19:28anything the

01:19:29country's regime

01:19:30says.

01:19:31Maybe Pickaxe

01:19:32Mountain is

01:19:32operational.

01:19:33Perhaps nukes are

01:19:34being worked on.

01:19:35Those two maybes

01:19:37immediately turn the

01:19:38mountain into a

01:19:39valuable target for

01:19:40the US.

01:19:41On top of that even

01:19:42if Pickaxe Mountain

01:19:43truly isn't

01:19:43operational yet it's

01:19:45obvious that Iran

01:19:45intends it to be.

01:19:47It wouldn't be

01:19:47spending so much time

01:19:48and money on building

01:19:49work if it didn't.

01:19:50And for the US a

01:19:52preemptive strike in

01:19:53the context of taking

01:19:54out the facility

01:19:54before it comes

01:19:55online might hold

01:19:56just as much value

01:19:57as an attack against

01:19:58one of the Iranian

01:19:59nuclear facilities that

01:20:00the US knows for

01:20:01sure is active.

01:20:03The US could also

01:20:04argue that it's done

01:20:05the damage it needs

01:20:05to do to Iran's

01:20:06other nuclear sites.

01:20:08Natanz which we

01:20:09mentioned earlier

01:20:09was struck in 2025

01:20:10and again in March.

01:20:12Isfahan which is

01:20:13Iran's largest

01:20:14nuclear research

01:20:15complex was hit by

01:20:16submarine-launched

01:20:17cruise missiles

01:20:18during Operation

01:20:18Midnight Hammer

01:20:19though there is

01:20:20still enough

01:20:21activity at the

01:20:21site for the US

01:20:22to consider a

01:20:23follow-up strike.

01:20:24The Wall Street

01:20:24Journal reports.

01:20:26Talagan 2 is

01:20:27also being quietly

01:20:28rebuilt following

01:20:29strikes in October

01:20:292024 and March

01:20:312026.

01:20:32Fordo may be a

01:20:33non-factor.

01:20:34It was the site

01:20:35that the US hit

01:20:36using its

01:20:36ventilation shaft

01:20:37strategy that we

01:20:38suggested may be a

01:20:39possibility for

01:20:40Pickaxe Mountain.

01:20:41There are still

01:20:42above-ground targets

01:20:43at that site

01:20:44though making it

01:20:44ripe for another

01:20:45strike so America

01:20:46has options but

01:20:48when it really

01:20:48comes down to it

01:20:49Pickaxe Mountain

01:20:50has become the

01:20:51number one target.

01:20:52If it wasn't

01:20:53Trump, Hegseth

01:20:54and the administration

01:20:54wouldn't be

01:20:55mentioning it by name.

01:20:56For the US this

01:20:57may not be about

01:20:58whether the facility

01:20:59is operational or not.

01:21:00Pickaxe Mountain

01:21:01may instead be

01:21:02about the message

01:21:03that will be sent.

01:21:04This is Iran's

01:21:05deepest nuclear

01:21:06facility.

01:21:06If the US is able

01:21:07to hit that facility

01:21:08using its mops,

01:21:10Iran learns that

01:21:11even when burrowing

01:21:12so deep underground

01:21:13that it's technically

01:21:13outside of the

01:21:14mops range

01:21:15isn't a solution.

01:21:16That could put

01:21:17pressure on Iran

01:21:17to end the

01:21:18Hormuz blockade.

01:21:19At least that

01:21:20seems to be

01:21:20America's plan.

01:21:22Only time will tell

01:21:23if the US is

01:21:24serious about its

01:21:24Pickaxe Mountain

01:21:25threats.

01:21:26The only thing

01:21:27that's certain is

01:21:28that the one thing

01:21:28Iran has been

01:21:29trying to hide for

01:21:30years has just

01:21:30become the priority

01:21:31target for the

01:21:32United States military.

01:21:33And it may not

01:21:34just be the malt

01:21:35that the US brings

01:21:36to Pickaxe Mountain.

01:21:37Smaller bunker busters

01:21:38weighing 907 kilograms

01:21:40have already been

01:21:41used against Iran's

01:21:42missile cities

01:21:43where they've

01:21:44collapsed tunnels

01:21:45and taken out

01:21:45entrances.

01:21:46Could those

01:21:47smaller bombs

01:21:48make an appearance

01:21:48at Pickaxe Mountain?

01:21:50Decide for yourself

01:21:51if they could help

01:21:51the US by watching

01:21:52our video

01:21:53where we examine

01:21:54their previous use

01:21:54in Iran.

01:21:55And if you enjoyed

01:21:56this video,

01:21:57remember to subscribe

01:21:58to The Military Show

01:21:59and enable notifications

01:22:00to keep up with our

01:22:01coverage of the latest

01:22:02developments in the

01:22:03Gulf region.

01:22:04And thank you as

01:22:05always for watching.

Iran Challenged Ukraine… What Ukraine DID Next Was RUTHLESS | Other War Stories

Category

Transcript

Comments

Recommended