The Race Just Flipped!

Doc Rich

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Transcript

00:00I've been talking to voters who were at Haley Stevens events leading into the primary or at various polling places.

00:06I was in Dearborn in Detroit and Birmingham where Haley Stevens is from.

00:14And all over the place, people who were voting for Stevens were saying they do not know that they can

00:20vote for El-Sayed.

00:22They were saying that they might take a look at him, they might vote for Mike Rogers.

00:27Now, it's important because this was such a divided primary to note that a lot of El-Sayed voters were

00:32saying the other side of that,

00:34which is that if Stevens had won, they didn't know that they would vote.

00:36A lot of them were saying they would stay home.

00:37But this race got very deep, very personal between the two of them.

00:43And it also is about a lot of issues that people got very upset about, particularly the issue of Israel

00:48and Gaza and Palestine,

00:49where El-Sayed has been very far out there.

00:53He's posted a video of a live stream on Sunday where he said he wanted to have a T-shirt

00:59printed saying he's the most dangerous candidate for the U.S. Israel relationship.

01:02Obviously, there was all this APEC spending against him that motivated a lot of people in both directions.

01:07This is going to be really a big thing going into November.

01:10If Syed wins, I will not vote Democrat.

01:12I'll switch over.

01:13And I'll vote for a candidate with character, whoever that might be.

01:25We got to talk about this Michigan Senate race that has now concluded between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens,

01:37where Haley Stevens is obviously the establishment candidate and Abdul is the communist, the DSA member,

01:45who is now backtracking on that.

01:49But of course they are.

01:50They understand how unpopular they genuinely are outside of the Democrat Party.

01:56So, of course, it's going to backtrack on a lot of that.

01:59But we aren't fooled.

02:02They got a major, major issue on their hands because had they allowed the establishment candidate,

02:10Haley Stevens, to win, they had a great shot at winning that seat or keeping that seat, I should say,

02:18because it's currently a Democrat seat.

02:20But because they allowed, the Democrat Party has allowed the communists to take over their party,

02:28it is now on life support because of it.

02:33Yeah, these guys, these gals, they can win in Democrat primaries, especially in deep blue places.

02:40And apparently in a, you know, kind of a purplish place like Michigan.

02:46But in a general, they're going to struggle.

02:50As you heard in those first two clips, there are a lot of folks, Democrats themselves,

02:55who are on the fence about voting for these folks,

02:59including prominent individuals who aren't on the fence at all, like James Carville and Bill Meyer.

03:05I played the clips for you guys and they both have famously said,

03:09if this is the direction that the Democrat Party is going in,

03:12in the words of James Carville, one of us got to go.

03:17And he was speaking about Hassan Piker and he said, maybe it's me.

03:23But we aren't going to be in the same party.

03:27And Bill Meyer said he's open to voting for a Republican if the communists are taking over the party.

03:34Do you think they're the only ones?

03:37No, not by a long shot, not by a long shot.

03:41And so there is a silver lining in the communists taking over the Democrat Party.

03:47And that is, well, Republicans just continue, get to continue to sweep these races.

03:54So while we are clearing this new Republican Party of rhinos,

03:59we're padding the stats as far as how many Republicans we're sending to D.C.

04:05So at a certain point, the rhinos that are left are going to be completely drowned out by these America

04:12First Republicans

04:13that were putting in these races and winning all over the place because of these communists.

04:18So that's also a wonderful thing in this entire situation, which is why I am really...

04:30What's the word I'm looking for here?

04:34Which is why I think there's some collusion going on with the whole Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene third

04:41party situation.

04:42Like right when things are getting really good for this new Republican Party and us,

04:49that's when they want to try to hop in and try to split the party.

04:54That's when they want to try to split us.

04:57When it's super convenient to do so for the Democrat Party.

05:03Interesting how that works, isn't it?

05:05Interesting.

05:06Especially when you consider the fact that Tucker Carlson was a registered Democrat.

05:09But anyway, we're not here to talk about that.

05:11I talked about that yesterday.

05:12So if you want to hear more about that, definitely go and check out the video from yesterday.

05:15I want to hop into these polls from CNN because if you know, if CNN is reporting on it

05:22and they're showing that, you know, you're in trouble and you're a Democrat,

05:27well, then you're probably losing.

05:30You're probably losing.

05:31Check it out.

05:32Once L.C. became the favorite for that nomination and now that he's actually become the nominee,

05:36Democratic chances have fallen dramatically.

05:39You can see it right here.

05:40Cash and prediction odds.

05:41Take a look here.

05:42Chance to win the Michigan Senate race.

05:43You go back to April at this point in the month.

05:46Dems had a 79% chance.

05:48Look how that number has fallen dramatically.

05:50Down we go in the Lake Michigan.

05:52Now we're talking about just a 59% chance.

05:55While Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee, look at this.

05:5721% chance.

05:59Basically doubling now up to a 41% chance.

06:02So the people who are putting their money where their mouths are, quite skeptical at this

06:06point, or at least significantly more skeptical, that Democrats will be able to hold on to the

06:11Michigan Senate seat with El-Sayed as the nominee, though I still should note he is the

06:15slight favorite here.

06:17But given Michigan being a purple state and given where Trump's approval rating is, I think

06:20it's quite surprising that his numbers are not significantly higher.

06:24Let's talk about where things broke down and what that means for the future.

06:27El-Sayed talks about, you know, being the candidate for the working family, the working

06:32class.

06:33How did they vote for him in the primary?

06:34Yeah, this I think is the big problem, right?

06:36Democrats have been hemorrhaging working class voters, voters without a college education.

06:41El-Sayed comes in, the great promise of him, it's my populist message, I can connect

06:45with those voters.

06:46While in the primary, it didn't happen.

06:48Take a look here.

06:49Okay, counties El-Sayed, one in the primary, zero of 15, zero of 15 with the lowest share

06:55of college degrees.

06:57Ergo, he did not win in those working class areas.

07:00Where he did win, he won 13 of the 15 counties with the highest share of college degrees.

07:05So you're thinking about Democrats having real trouble amongst the working class.

07:09El-Sayed came dramatically from those areas, in fact, not where there is working class folks,

07:15but where there are highly educated folks, more from elite circles than from the working

07:19class circles.

07:20And I think there's real worries among Democrats, well, will that transfer over to the general

07:25election and El-Sayed continue to have the problems that prior Democrats have had with

07:28the working class?

07:29You think that's not the only worry the Democrats should have here?

07:32No, it's not the only worry.

07:33Because, I mean, the polling, the polling estimated El-Sayed's primary margin by about

07:3710 points.

07:38And I think there's a real question, will that happen in the general election again?

07:42Because the general election polling is quite tight.

07:44And what we know in Michigan is the candidate of the college degrees tend to be overestimated.

07:49Will that happen with El-Sayed?

07:51Maybe.

07:51But I think it's just another worry and why this race has closed dramatically and the

07:55folks who are trying to handicap it.

07:56Super interesting, Harry.

07:57Thank you so much.

07:59Now, keep in mind, this is all before the dollars really start flying.

08:07We haven't seen a whole lot of, we haven't seen the bulk of the money be spent yet.

08:14And guess which side the bulk of the money sits on?

08:18Ours.

08:19Now, granted, money isn't everything.

08:22And we've seen that.

08:23Okay.

08:24I just want to make that clear as well.

08:25I don't, I don't want to be a hypocrite here.

08:27We saw in 2024, obviously with Kamala Harris spending a record amount of money and still

08:33getting blown out.

08:35But the difference is, I mean, I think the difference is obvious, right?

08:40At least one glaring one.

08:44What's a nice way to put this?

08:45Um, her lights were on, but it seemed like nobody was home.

08:50Okay.

08:52Uh, she had easy lobs that should have been home runs out of the park and continuously,

09:00uh, it was a swing and a miss swing and a miss until she ultimately struck out.

09:07Right.

09:08Uh, I mean, I'm, I'm thinking of the example where she was on the view and I believe it was

09:15sunny hosting just extra, you know, Hey, you know, what would you do differently than

09:20Joe Biden?

09:21You know, just, just a softball question, lobbed it to her easy, easy.

09:28She said nothing.

09:32What?

09:33That is literally the worst answer you could give the worst you, you could have given word

09:41salad and that would have been better than that answer.

09:45She could have just started yapping off about a bunch of nothing.

09:49And that would have been a better answer than her saying nothing, but nothing was the answer

09:57that she gave the literal worst answer.

10:03So of course, you know, when you, when you have a candidate like that, I don't care how

10:07much money you spent, bro, you could have spent a trillion dollars and it still wasn't

10:12going to work.

10:13It still wasn't going to help.

10:15Um, so yeah, I do think, um, money does play a bigger factor, you know, especially when

10:24it comes to name recognition.

10:25Right.

10:26Uh, and that's one of the things that I've talked about in the past, especially with some

10:29of these races like North Carolina, where you have a former RNC chair, Michael Watley.

10:35Sure.

10:36He has a little bit of name recognition.

10:38I know who he is.

10:39Had I not been in politics, I probably wouldn't have known though, but he's running up against

10:43the former governor of North Carolina and Roy Cooper.

10:48Like governors most certainly have named recognition in their state.

10:52So how do you combat that?

10:54Well, with dollars, you, you, you got, you got to spend the money.

10:59You, you, you got to spend that cash to get their name out there, to get that recognition,

11:03especially when you're running up against someone who's a former governor, you know, uh, people

11:08are going to see that name and automatically know, oh yeah, I remember Roy Cooper.

11:11You know, I didn't even know Roy Cooper was running, but yeah, I recognize the name and that's

11:17not something that you want.

11:18You, you know, that's not something that you want to run against.

11:21I should say that that's an uphill battle.

11:23So to be quite honest, we're probably going to lose North Carolina.

11:26Uh, just being honest, right?

11:31That, that was going to be tough.

11:32Uh, Ken Paxton, uh, we got some money that we need to spend on that one as well.

11:36Obviously they, the, the, the nice of knives have come out for him, but, uh, Michigan does

11:42seem winnable at this point in time, especially since this communist has won.

11:47And once again, uh, I showed you guys this poll the other day where he had a 10 point

11:54lead or not, not, not, not, not the, not the communist Mike Rogers, who is the Republican

12:00nominee.

12:01That's going to be running against this communist in Michigan.

12:04So if you live in Michigan, Mike Rogers, that's our guy, Mike Rogers, uh, he had a 10 point

12:10lead.

12:11So that, that is, that is absolutely horrendous for Democrats.

12:16And if that turns out to be true, which I doubt it, I don't, I don't think there'd be

12:21that big of a gap if I'm just being honest, would it be great?

12:24Oh, you know, bro, if, if, if, if we found out the day after the election, Mike Rogers

12:31won by 10 plus points, that is going to be brutal for the Democrat party.

12:37Absolutely brutal to just be molly walked like that in a purple state, right?

12:45Bluish leaning, but purple state that, that, that would be brutal.

12:48Uh, so I would love to see that, but realistically, it's probably not going to be that big of a

12:52gap, but we, I think we will get the win, especially with the money that we still have yet to

12:57spend

12:57uncle Trump.

12:58Uh, I believe I saw something that he had announced that he's got about 800 million, uh, to spend

13:06for, for this upcoming election season.

13:08So you put that combined with, uh, what, uh, Elon Musk is throwing in as well, combined with

13:18the money that we all, man.

13:21Yeah.

13:23I, I, I think we got this win.

13:25I think we got this win.

13:26As long as we stay the course, as long as things stay going in this general direction

13:30that we're going in currently, I think, I think we're walking, I think we're coming

13:35back post midterms with a win and still being in power in the house and in the Senate.

13:42I think we got it, but as always get in the comments, let me know your thoughts and your

13:46opinions as always stay safe out there.

13:48Peace and love.

13:49I'm out.

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