00:00Hanan Hussain is a senior expert at Initiative Futures, the global think tank focusing on security issues.
00:07Hanan, welcome. Where do you think this is heading?
00:13Well, it's heading in a direction where there's going to be a large scale intensification.
00:17We've seen that in certain signals from Kabul as well.
00:19Pakistan is full framing it as a self-defense imperative.
00:22The fact of the matter is that many of the groups that Pakistan is sensitive to operate with tested support
00:27from Kabul.
00:27So I think when we look at the drastic scale casualties as well, I think it's going to be drastic
00:32escalation with limited prospects of guardrails.
00:36Tensions between Kabul and Islamabad, of course, have flared before.
00:40I mean, I wonder how this chapter compares with previous cycles of escalation.
00:46Well, on two levels.
00:47So first of all, there's going to be limited space for mediation.
00:50We've seen that in past cycles as well.
00:53Kabul and Islamabad both pivoting towards their intermediaries within the Middle East.
00:57We've seen that within talks that were held in Istanbul as well.
01:00So I think those prospects remain a bit dim right now.
01:03And secondly, the key part of the distinction is the fact that both countries are facing a trust deficit, which
01:09has widened exponentially.
01:10When you look at the high dose of Pakistan has allegedly attacked and Afghanistan's pace of retaliation, both of them
01:17signal the kind of intensity,
01:19which regional powers are also less inclined to step into in terms of mediation.
01:23And both Pakistan and Kabul have limited precedent of setting guardrails when it comes to casualty tolls exceeding 130 at
01:32a minimum.
01:32Our correspondents have all alluded to this, but Pakistan is already facing significant internal security challenges.
01:39I wonder how does that wider context shape Islamabad's response?
01:47That's all on two levels.
01:48So first of all, Pakistan has been facing those threats happening in the south and as well as in the
01:53center.
01:53So there's great pressure on Islamabad to present any sort of an attack within Afghanistan as a self-defense imperative.
01:59And I think the fact that those domestic threats have escalated in recent times, we've seen that in the capital
02:03as well.
02:05So that basically adds to Pakistan's attempts to target these hideouts and present the narrative as something which is in
02:12the larger interest of the country.
02:13And I think when you look at the broader prospect of many of these groups allegedly being tied to certain
02:18safe havens within Kabul,
02:20it leaves a lingering question about how tangible is the intelligence that is going to be shared?
02:25Does it have the vacuum from the UN sanctions group?
02:27As we talk, there's implicit enough evidence of Pakistan to make the claim.
02:31But will that lead to a drastic de-escalation in attacks on its own soil?
02:36I think that's where Pakistan's domestic counterterrorism strategy needs to be at a deeper focus as opposed to attacking hideouts
02:42in Kabul.
02:43Given the Iran crisis, Russia, Ukraine, I wonder how well prepared or preoccupied is the international diplomatic community to help
02:54resolve this?
02:57So look, I mean, the Ukraine and Russia war, I would not link them entirely into this,
03:01because when you look at international powers as well, Russia and Ukraine obviously has a lot of deep stakes.
03:07We've seen energy flows within the Gulf.
03:09We've seen the U.S. and Russia also have a bilateral on that.
03:11So I think and with European powers involved.
03:13So I think they're going to focus more of their energies on that front.
03:16And as far as Afghanistan and Pakistan goes, there's going to be limited appetite to resolve this, I believe.
03:22The casualty toll appears to be higher this time.
03:25I wonder, does that change the political or security calculation for either side?
03:33For Kabul, it does, because Kabul for a long time has been banking on the narrative that perhaps the tax
03:38from Pakistan would be confined to,
03:40for example, double-digit casualty tolls, to say the least.
03:42And then, of course, there could be, you know, recurring threats about, for example, cutting down trade or then, of
03:48course,
03:48appealing to, you know, this leverage with Kabul's private exercise with mediation support from China.
03:54I think with the casualty toll hitting 130 plus, that basically raises the stakes for Kabul to respond in a
04:00way that shows that they have
04:01what they basically perceive to be de facto control over their own territory.
04:05So I think when you look at the stakes right now, the amount of casualty tolls and the prospects of
04:09follow-up airstrikes also falling through,
04:11it leads to a spiral of conflict between Kabul and Islamabad both to basically put their political energies towards being
04:17strong on either side,
04:18with limited prospects of peace falling between the lines.
04:21Hanan, good to see you, and thank you for your time.
04:23Hanan Hussain, the senior expert at Initiate Futures, the global think tank.
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