The CIA Strategy That Broke the Russian Economy and Shut Down Refineries

The Military Show

Ukraine’s deep-strike strategy has evolved with surgical precision. Powered by CIA and French intelligence, Kyiv is no longer just starting fires—it is destroying irreplaceable machinery inside Russian oil refineries. Armed with intimate knowledge of Soviet-era blueprints, Ukrainian drone strikes have slashed Russian fuel output by up to 40%, causing nationwide shortages. As long-range capabilities expand deeper into Russia, Moscow’s war machine is grinding to a halt.  ⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 - US and French Intelligence Power Ukrainian Drone Strikes 01:25 - Ukraine Targets Critical Russian Oil Refinery Machinery 02:40 - CIA Intelligence Guides Strikes on Russian Wildberries Warehouses 04:00 - How CIA and France Plan Ukrainian Drone Missions 05:15 - Precision Strikes Cause 40 Percent Russian Fuel Drop 06:35 - Soviet Energy Infrastructure Exposes Russian Refinery Vulnerabilities 07:50 - Sanctions Force Russian Army onto Defective Chinese Components 09:05 - Ukrainian Drones Expand Range to 3,000 Kilometers 10:20 - Can CIA Intelligence Help Ukraine Destroy Russian Refineries?  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow  SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/RpFgXgqa

Transcript

00:00Something has changed about Ukraine's deep strikes. Refineries are still being hit.

00:05A campaign designed to strip away the blood of Russia's war machine is still in place.

00:09But those strikes are different, more precise. They've become less broad,

00:14as Ukraine takes aim not at the refineries themselves but the vital machinery and components

00:19that are incredibly difficult and sometimes impossible for Russia to replace.

00:24It's a masterstroke by Ukraine. But Ukraine hasn't done it alone.

00:29Ukraine is taking something irreplaceable away from Russia with the help of two other countries,

00:34France and the United States. The French-American connection has given Ukraine the step-by-step guide

00:40on how to break Russia's balls and Ukraine is kicking away.

00:44Everything hinges on refinery strikes. But if you've been paying attention to Ukraine's deep

00:49strike strategy, you know that these types of strikes aren't new to 2026. In fact, 2025 was

00:56the breakout year for this particular strategy. Ukraine started hitting Russian oil hard and

01:01repeatedly. By the end of the year, a ton of damage had been done. Ukraine had targeted over half of

01:07Russia's total refining capacity, conducting strikes against 21 of Russia's 38 largest refineries between

01:15January 2025 and the beginning of October of the same year. Successful attacks were on the rise,

01:21significant. Ukraine's drones broke through to their targets 48% more in 2025 than they did in 2024.

01:29Ukraine managed to shut down about 20% of Russia's refining at one point and by the end of the

01:34year,

01:34it had reportedly done more than $13 billion worth of damage to Russia's oil sector.

01:39The strategy was good, but it was far from perfect. Ukraine had a problem and it was rooted in the

01:45broad

01:45nature of its refinery strikes. In 2025, it was enough for Ukraine to get through Russian air

01:50defenses and hit something at a refinery. Anything. Starting fires was the goal,

01:55which made the massive storage tanks at these refineries Ukraine's priority targets. One hit

02:00from a drone and a storage tank goes boom, with the fire potentially encompassing more around it.

02:05Again, it worked. Refineries were forced to shut down as fires were put out and repair work was underway.

02:11Ukraine would even hit refineries several times in quick succession to keep them offline for longer.

02:16However, the refineries kept bouncing back. Once the fires were out, storage tanks and buildings

02:21weren't all that difficult to replace. Something had to change.

02:25Ukraine had to start getting surgical with its strikes. The massive fires at refineries were great

02:31for grabbing headlines, but as 2025 rolled into 2026, Ukraine altered its goals. The fires would be a

02:38bonus. Ukraine's real aim became to shut down refineries for as long as possible.

02:43How would it do that? By striking critical machinery that requires components that are incredibly

02:49difficult for Russia to source due to Western sanctions. Another problem reared its head.

02:55Ukraine's intelligence is clearly strong enough to enable the nation to carry out refinery strikes,

02:59but attacks at this level of precision are far from easy. Ukraine needed help to both identify the

03:05targets it should be taking out in Russia's refineries and to ensure its drones could navigate

03:10to those targets in the first place. That help has come from two different sources, the United States

03:15and France. In an explosive report, the Financial Times has revealed that both American and French

03:21intelligence agencies are providing Ukraine with the targeting assistance that it needs to transform

03:26its refinery-focused strategy. Fires are no longer the objective. Destroying key machinery at the

03:31refineries has become the main goal, and Ukraine is doing it with alarming regularity.

03:37Disrupt essential components and the entire war machine grinds to a halt.

03:41France's role is a big one. Back in January, French President Emmanuel Macron revealed that France is

03:46responsible for providing about two-thirds of the intelligence that Ukraine uses in its war with

03:51Russia. Macron even made it a point at the time to note that France had ascended to this role

03:55after a year of uncertainty in the relationship between the US and Ukraine. While Ukraine was largely

04:00dependent on American intelligence capabilities a year ago, today two-thirds of that intelligence

04:05is provided by France. Two-thirds, Macron declared. That declaration gave the impression that Ukraine

04:11was doing everything that it could to move away from US-provided intelligence. It wasn't. Perhaps

04:16Macron could have also pointed out that most of the other third of the intelligence Ukraine was receiving,

04:21and perhaps more now that the relationship between the US and Ukraine has defrosted in 2026,

04:26attacks, is coming from the US. And not just any branch of the US, the country's foremost intelligence

04:32agency is working directly with Ukraine to ensure that it can carry out its surgical strikes against

04:37Russia's refineries. The CIA is in play. And Ukraine is making the most of the agency's help

04:44to build an intelligence advantage that Russia can't handle. United24 media reports that it is often CIA

04:50specialists who identify the specific industrial machine that Ukraine needs to strike. There are

04:56two conditions attached to this machinery. It either has to be incredibly difficult for Russia to replace,

05:01or, failing that, almost impossible for Russia to repair due to its inability to get its hands on

05:07the Western components needed. The outlet adds that CIA intelligence has also been crucial to Ukraine's

05:12attacks against Russia's Wildberries warehouses. Wildberries, which is often referred to as Russia's version of

05:17Amazon, provides an online portal through which Russian entrepreneurs sell and Russian consumers buy.

05:23But Wildberries also allows sellers to list military items, such as drones and body armor.

05:28So it became a target. A big one. With help from the CIA, Ukraine has struck eight of the company's

05:34fulfillment centers, taking out about 860,000 square meters of product-filled industrial space in the process.

05:41Just like that, 15.4% of Wildberries' entire storage capacity has been swallowed by fire,

05:47costing the company and its sellers billions of dollars. None of this would have been possible

05:51without the CIA. Wildberries has since tried to hide military goods from its search results in what

05:57amounts to a desperate plea to Ukraine to stop sending its flying sanctions. It isn't going to work.

06:02Ukraine knows how important Wildberries is, both as a military supplier and a logistical network

06:07inside Russia. With the CIA's help, it's going to keep identifying the company's facilities and

06:13striking with flaming fury. Forbes adds that the CIA has been helping Ukraine

06:18behind the scenes for a very long time. From the moment that Russia began its campaign of aggression

06:23with the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, the CIA has been working with Ukrainian intelligence.

06:30Institutions that have been weakened by corruption have been rebuilt. The remnants of Russian systems and

06:34Soviet-era spying methods have been eliminated. The result is a Ukrainian intelligence service that

06:40is as lean and lethal as any other, all backed by two of the world's most powerful nations.

06:46Right now, France and the US are combining to help Ukraine carry out refinery strikes and other

06:51attacks against targets all over Russia. But the CIA has its tendrils and so much more. There have been

06:57bombings and covert operations happening inside Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

07:02Key Russian generals and leaders have been taken out. Ukraine doesn't take credit for these attacks,

07:07but they are obviously behind them. And behind Ukraine, Forbes says, is the CIA.

07:13Everything we are seeing now is the result of more than a decade of collaboration that has been

07:18taken to the next level in 2026. Today, France and the United States are helping Ukraine's military

07:23planners to chart a course and plan out long-range strikes. But how does it work, and what is the

07:28ultimate goal of all this? We are going to reveal all, including the shocking role that Russia itself

07:33plays in enabling Ukraine's strikes. But before we do, this is the military show. We dig behind the

07:39headlines to find the real stories. If you are getting value from our channel, then remember to

07:43subscribe and ring the notification bell so you don't miss any of our daily videos.

07:48Details about how Ukraine carries out its strikes with the support of France and the US are provided by

07:53Financial Times. The outlet spoke to two drone operators, who both said that engineers behind

07:58the scenes put in a lot of work before a single drone ever leaves the ground. Those engineers select

08:04targets based on the intelligence that they receive, along with carrying out detailed technical

08:09analyses to map out the route to the target, the logistics involved in the strike, and what purpose

08:14the target serves in the broader operational scheme of Ukraine's war against Russia.

08:18Once all of this work is done, the engineers brief Ukraine's drone units. This is where energy

08:24industry experts come into play, as they will define the specific components that Ukraine's

08:28operators need to strike, with a particular focus on which would take Russia the longest to repair or

08:33replace. As one of the operators puts it, these experts will tell Ukraine's drone specialists to

08:39hit these pipelines here, or this chimney, hit here in this space, or this part of the equipment

08:44connection, or this box, and so on. Depots and oil storage units aren't neglected, but they're now

08:49secondary in Ukraine's long-range planning. However, these missions aren't planned with a single

08:54target in mind. Contingencies are built into everything. If Plan A isn't going to work, perhaps

08:59because Russia has moved air defenses into position, or the objective that Ukraine wants to strike

09:03has been protected in some other way, then there is a Plan B, Plan C, and so on. Multiple objectives

09:09are

09:09built into every mission to ensure that Ukraine's drones don't make the long journeys only to leave

09:14empty-handed at the end of it all. If an operator can't reach their primary target, they divert to

09:19pre-selected secondary or tertiary targets. There is no strike abandonment here, only contingency built

09:26upon contingency to make sure that damage is done. Ukraine also doesn't ever assume one-and-done with

09:31its long-range strikes. That was already the case in previous years, but Ukraine absolutely ensures that

09:36it gives itself the best chance to hit whatever it targets repeatedly, to the point where that

09:41target can't be recovered by Russia. This could be achieved through sheer drone volume during a

09:45strike or by sending a new wave of drones over if Ukraine feels the need. But either way,

09:50a refinery that is visited by Ukraine's flying sanctions can count on more than one. And if

09:55Ukraine's first drone manages to hit the target right off the bat, well, there are always those

09:59secondary and tertiary targets that can be taken out. What we are seeing here is the systematic

10:04dismantlement of Russia's entire oil and fuel industries, all supported by French and US

10:10intelligence. It's a combination of shock and technological pressure transplanted into the

10:15drone age. And as Ukraine's acting defense minister Yevheni Kamara notes, it's an approach

10:20that Ukraine can and should scale up to do as much damage to Russia's war machine on Putin's own turf

10:26as it can. Russia won't want that. It's dealing with enough problems at the current scale of Ukraine's

10:31strikes. Ukraine's attacks against Russian refineries in 2026 have been far more effective

10:36than those in 2025, sparking a fuel crisis that has spanned the entire country in the process.

10:42By the end of July, Russian fuel output had dropped up to 40% due to key refineries remaining offline.

10:48That's all due to Ukraine's increased precision. A strike in the previous years that may have taken a

10:54refinery offline for a few days now takes weeks or even months for Russia to recover from. Sales of

10:59gasoline have been restricted in over 40 of Russia's regions. Russian oil refining has dropped by 25%

11:05year-on-year, reaching a 20-year low. And gasoline production in the country has fallen by 17%,

11:12United24 media revealed in a July 2nd report. And as all of this is happening,

11:17Russia somehow has to find a way to deal with its domestic peak in fuel demand, which typically arrives

11:22between August and September. Combine Ukraine's drones with US and French intelligence and you get a

11:27lethal cocktail that is being forced down Russia's throat. But there's another ingredient added to

11:31that cocktail, a dash of Russian vodka that has been unwittingly provided by Russia itself

11:36by way of its former Soviet empire. What do we mean by that? Well, when speaking about Ukraine's

11:41strikes, Ukraine's former defense minister and now the chair of the Kyiv-based Center for Defense

11:46Strategies, Andrey Zagorodnyuk, says,

11:49We think of Russia as a system. Understanding that system allows you to identify the critical

11:54parts where the effect is much more substantial. Shock the system by ripping out its heart and brain

11:59and the body crumbles. And beyond the Western intelligence, Ukraine knows exactly how to

12:04deliver these shocks because of Russia itself. Russia and Ukraine have very similar energy systems.

12:09Built using Soviet-era designs, those systems are still used in Ukraine. And due to that,

12:15Ukraine knows exactly what types of industrial processes Russia's refineries use,

12:19as well as their key operational vulnerabilities and equipment layouts.

12:23Ukraine only needs to look at its own energy infrastructure to see where it needs to hit

12:26inside Russia, which nodes need to be taken offline. And once the US and France get involved to add the

12:32what to the where, Russia ends up in the embarrassing position of being the architect of its own demise,

12:38based on the Soviet empire building that has inspired Putin.

12:42It's a dreadful sort of irony for Russia, as is the fact that Ukraine has learned from Russia

12:46during this war how damaging strikes against energy infrastructure can be.

12:50Sadly, we learn from Russians, Zagorodnyuk tells the Financial Times.

12:55They are doing exactly the same to us here, he adds. The key difference is that Ukraine

12:59can access what it needs from Western partners to carry out repairs and replace damaged equipment.

13:05Russia can't. It's stranded, isolated and surrounded by a sea of sanctions that prevent it from getting

13:11its hands on the Western components that it needed to quickly repair the damage that Ukraine is doing.

13:16Russia is getting desperate.

13:17In a July 3rd report, Vladislav Vlasiuk, who is the Ukrainian president's advisor and

13:22representative on sanctions policy, told UK are informed that Russia is now having to rely on

13:27China to get its hands on the components it's using. The problem, Vlasiuk says, is that Chinese knockoffs

13:34aren't reliable. The best example is navigation modules and certain high precision microcontrollers.

13:40In a number of cases, the Russians have been forced to switch to alternative components

13:44that have inferior performance or require significant system redesigns.

13:49Our task is to make this process as difficult and expensive as possible, Vlasiuk stated.

13:54Something similar will be happening at Russia's refineries. That only plays into Ukraine's plan.

13:59A knockoff component that breaks easily can force redesigns, as we see in Russia's missiles.

14:04And it could even result in breakages that take refineries offline again.

14:08But Russia has no choice. It can pick crappy components or nothing at all. And it has to take the

14:14former.

14:14As for what happens next, it's only going to get worse for Russia from here.

14:18The flow of French and US intelligence isn't going to be curtailed, which means Ukraine's drones

14:22aren't going anywhere. Actually, that's not strictly accurate. They're going somewhere. And that

14:27somewhere is deeper into Russia than Putin ever thought possible. As Ukraine's drone technology

14:31gets better, it's able to strike deeper, which opens up more possibilities to leverage the Western

14:36intelligence it has to do more damage. Ukraine can now strike any target inside European Russia.

14:43Its best drones can travel over 3,000 kilometers. And it's working on a new generation of long-range

14:49sanctions that will strike even deeper. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that drones

14:53with ranges over 5,000 kilometers are on the table and may be available to Ukraine's operators

14:59by the end of 2026. In 2027, Ukraine will hope to have drones that can travel 10,000 kilometers.

15:05Yet more targets open up, which is very bad news for Russia. Ukraine isn't getting complacent either.

15:11Just as it built on its 2025 successes with a more refined strategy, pardon the pun,

15:15it's planning to build on what it's achieved so far during this year. Zelenskyy holds regular

15:20meetings with his top military officials to update target lists and outline new priorities.

15:24Toward the end of July, a new plan for deep strikes was approved, which saw Zelenskyy give

15:29the go-ahead for new strikes. Nobody outside of Ukraine's upper echelons knows what is going to be

15:34hit yet. That's by design. The less Russia knows, the less it can do about Ukraine's attacks before the

15:39drones come calling. If we were betting people, we'd gamble that most of the targets on Ukraine's list

15:44have been influenced by the intelligence that it's getting from France and the US.

15:47Russia can't defend against any of this anywhere near as well as it needs to.

15:52The country is so vast that it's impossible to defend every military critical site against

15:56Ukraine's drones. That size, which is such an asset when defending against ground invasions,

16:01has become a burden of the highest order for the Kremlin. Putin and his cronies must now constantly

16:06juggle air defenses. They have to guess what Ukraine might hit and move defenses to those targets,

16:11leaving other targets vulnerable as a result. It's a game of prioritization that Russia never

16:16thought it would be playing. And that game is going in Ukraine's favor. Now that Ukraine's drones can

16:21fly so far they can hit refineries in Siberia, Russia faces more of these choices. If the extended

16:27ranges that Zelenskyy talks about come to pass later in the year and into 2027, already stretched

16:33Russian defenses have to be pulled apart to breaking point. Distance is no longer a factor for Ukraine.

16:38Russia has no more strategic rear left. Only hundreds of targets, all within range or soon

16:44to be in the range of Ukraine's drones, remain. This is Russia's new reality. The CIA and French

16:50intelligence have united with Ukraine to wear away the Russian war machine. The ball breakers fly almost

16:55every day now. And every time they strike, be it against a crucial machine at a refinery or a military

17:01base that was supposed to be in a safe zone, Putin has to absorb another kick to his crotch. Eventually,

17:06Russia will be brought to its knees, a military superpower reduced to a trembling wreck,

17:11bleeding oil and fuel out of every orifice. Evidence of the brilliant collaboration between

17:16Ukraine and its French and American partners comes through every week. But it's in the wild

17:20berries strikes that this combination of Western intelligence and Ukrainian firepower made real

17:25headlines in July. We touched on those strikes in this video. Now you can learn more about them

17:30and why they really matter by watching our video where we cover the scale of these strikes and how

17:34massive a blow they've struck against the Russian war machine. But before you go, remember to

17:38subscribe to The Military Show. We deliver analysis like this in all of our daily videos and we would

17:43love to have you along for the ride. And thank you, as always, for watching.

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