Ukraine’s strike on the Omsk refinery stunned the world, but the bigger story is the weapon behind it. In this video, we break down the new FP-1(ER) drone, its claimed 3,400 km range, how it evaded Russian defenses, and the devastating damage it inflicted on Russia’s largest refinery. If these reports are accurate, Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign has entered a new era—and targets across Russia may no longer be out of reach.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine long-range drone strikes Russian Omsk refinery
01:07 - FP-1(ER) drone specifications and 3400 km range
06:39 - Russian Su-57 fighter jet fails against Ukraine drones
09:15 - Ukraine drone strike disables Russia largest oil refinery
11:41 - Russia fuel crisis after Ukraine hits 11 refineries
14:16 - Can Russian air defenses stop Ukraine deep strikes?
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/R7YmBwZk
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine long-range drone strikes Russian Omsk refinery
01:07 - FP-1(ER) drone specifications and 3400 km range
06:39 - Russian Su-57 fighter jet fails against Ukraine drones
09:15 - Ukraine drone strike disables Russia largest oil refinery
11:41 - Russia fuel crisis after Ukraine hits 11 refineries
14:16 - Can Russian air defenses stop Ukraine deep strikes?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/R7YmBwZk
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NewsTranscript
00:00When Ukraine struck the Omsk refinery, we all marveled at the brilliance of the strike.
00:05A nation that just four years ago had no long-range weapons that could hurt Russia
00:10on its own turf, had just hit a refinery thousands of kilometers away in Siberia.
00:17Questions were asked, how did Ukraine do it? What type of drone did it use?
00:22Now we have our answers. Nothing in Russia is safe anymore,
00:26as Ukraine has built something that Russian air defenses cannot stop.
00:30A 3,400-kilometer beast unlike anything that has been seen before.
00:35Russia can't hide from the storm that's coming, as Omsk saw Ukraine send a message
00:41that it can now hit almost every single major target on Russian territory.
00:46Ukraine has a new drone.
00:48Scratch that, it's not a new drone.
00:50It's a remix of the drone that Ukraine has been using to batter Russia for months, the FP-1.
00:55That drone now has a new cousin, and it's delivered even deeper strike capabilities to Ukraine than
01:01ever before. The FP-1 ER is here, and this is everything that we know about it so far.
01:07The first clues that something new was in the skies over Omsk came from the co-founder of
01:11Firepoint, Denis Stielemann. As the smoke rose over the Omsk refinery, Stielemann took to X to deliver a
01:18simple but game-changing message. Omsk refinery meets the new FP-1, he said, and he followed up with
01:25a second message that simply stated, 3,400.
01:29With that, we got our first insight into what's now been dubbed the FP-1 ER.
01:34An extended-range version of Firepoint's FP-1 drone isn't just in production,
01:38it's in the air, and it's proven itself to be devastatingly precise, exceptionally powerful,
01:45and capable of traveling thousands of kilometers while avoiding every air defense system that
01:50Russia tries to place in its path. The only thing that Firepoint has confirmed about its
01:54remixed drone so far is the range. 3,400 kilometers is about three times farther than the original FP-1
02:01can fly, Euromiden Press reports, and that will be enough to terrify Russia.
02:06Ukraine now has a drone that can attack every major Russian military,
02:10oil, and manufacturing facility in western and central Russia.
02:14Beyond that, Stielemann isn't revealing too much. However, analysts who have taken a
02:18closer look at the few images we have of the FP-1 ER in flight reveal that there are a
02:23handful
02:24of key differences that separate it from the original FP-1. One of those analysts is the
02:29Grandpa Roy X account, which is run by a drone expert based in Canada. Roy took a close look at
02:35the
02:35FP-1 ER's wings and he noticed some key differences. The new drone's wings are noticeably longer than
02:41those on the original FP-1, which provides more gliding potential and adds to the range of the FP-1
02:47ER.
02:48Additionally, the wings also have a slightly different shape, providing a larger surface area.
02:53Again, that helps with gliding. It also means that the FP-1 ER can hold more fuel tanks than the
02:58FP-1.
02:59There is also conjecture that the FP-1 ER is using some form of fuel injection, which offers a decent
03:05increase in range through greater fuel efficiency. However, that hasn't been proven yet. Very little has
03:11been. The FP-1 ER, despite this early analysis, still remains mostly a mystery. There are a couple of other
03:18things that we can be relatively certain about. First, the FP-1 ER that Firepoint has unleashed is even better
03:25than
03:25the modified version of the FP-1 that everybody thought Ukraine was going to receive. In June,
03:30Firepoint presented an upgraded version of the FP-1 at the Eurosatari exhibition in Paris.
03:35That exhibition revealed that the FP-1 had indeed been fitted with an additional fuel tank,
03:40though Firepoint claimed that this would give the drone a range of 2,700 kilometers. That was less
03:45than a month before the Omsk refinery attack, so in just a few weeks, it seems that Firepoint has managed
03:50to upgrade its new version of the FP-1 again to add another 800 kilometers to its range.
03:57Either that or the version of the FP-1 seen at Eurosatari was a different drone entirely,
04:01and the FP-1 ER has been kept under wraps right until it crashed down on the Omsk refinery.
04:07Second, we can at least estimate the approximate price of the FP-1 ER. As Euromiden Press points out,
04:13the original FP-1 sets Ukraine back about $50,000 per unit. The FP-1 ER will cost more than
04:20that due to the
04:20large wings and extra fuel tanks. However, those additions won't be enough to raise the price of
04:25the FP-1 ER above Firepoint's other major long-range weapon, the FP-5. That cruise missile hybrid has a
04:32similar range to the FP-1 ER, but it comes with a price tag of $500,000. It seems very
04:38likely that
04:39Ukraine will be able to buy several FP-1 ERs for the price of a single FP-5, suggesting a
04:44price tag in
04:45the low six figures, perhaps less. It all depends on just how much the fuel tanks and wing material
04:50contribute to the $50,000 price tag of the original FP-1. What Russia is seeing here is a drone
04:56that
04:56has the ability to strike hundreds of targets and that can be built at a fraction of the cost of
05:01a
05:01missile. And that's worry. It means Ukraine may be able to unleash large FP-1 ER swarms in the future.
05:08As for everything else about the FP-1 ER, we can only speculate. Mysteries still remain, starting with
05:14the drone's payload. The original version of the FP-1 has a 60kg payload, which means it lacked the
05:20explosive firepower needed to pull off something like what we saw at Omsk. Firepoint later upgraded
05:25the FP-1 to accommodate 105kg of explosives, and it seems likely that the FP-1 ER uses a warhead
05:32of
05:32about that size. Likely, but unconfirmed. It's even possible that the FP-1 ER warhead is slightly larger,
05:39though that depends on whether the altered wings and extra fuel tanks can compensate for additional
05:43weight. The other thing we don't know about Ukraine's new drone is how its guidance system
05:48works. The FP-1 ER may well use the combination of satellite and inertial navigation that you might
05:53expect to see in a weapon of this kind. However, Russia has electronic warfare systems that can jam
05:58satellite signals, and a drone traveling several thousand kilometers offers plenty of opportunities
06:03for that signal jamming to take place. Satellite navigation alone would be a risk, so it's
06:09possible that there is some sort of AI in play with the FP-1 ER. What that AI may be
06:14isn't known,
06:15assuming it's even present at all. But it is notable that the enhanced FP-1 that was showcased at
06:20Eurosatari also came with a claim from Firepoint that its drones have started to receive AI systems.
06:26Again, no details were given. But it would make sense for AI to be used in a drone that can
06:30fly for
06:313,400 kilometers, if only to counteract the possibility of jamming, making the whole flight
06:36a complete waste of time. Finally, there's one more thing about the FP-1 ER that we know for certain.
06:42Russia's best fighter jet couldn't stop it in Omsk. Soon after Ukraine's Omsk strike,
06:47photographs and videos started circulating on social media that seemed to indicate that Russia
06:52had deployed an Su-57 to stop Ukraine's drones. The Su-57 is supposed to be Russia's fifth-generation
06:59fighter jet, though there are plenty of doubts about the airframe's quality that seem to place
07:04it at the higher end of the fourth generation. Still, this is Russia's best fighter jet, and its
07:10combination of speed and firepower should be more than enough to stop practically any Ukrainian drone.
07:15But Russia's Su-57 failed multiple times. Euromiden Press says that Ukraine sent around seven drones into
07:22Omsk during its July 6th attack, which not only would have given Russia's Su-57 plenty of targets,
07:28but would have also increased the chances of those drones showing up on Russian radar systems.
07:33Indeed, Michael Bonnet, who is an analyst with RAND, points out that Russia deployed both an Su-57
07:39and an A-50 AWACS, or airborne warning and control system aircraft, to tackle Ukraine's drones.
07:45Bonnet says that it's the first time we've seen this combination, and it suggests that Russia's
07:50radars saw Ukraine's drones coming long before they arrived in Omsk. The FP-1 drones are slow and would
07:56have taken hours to reach Omsk. Unless A-50 and Su-57 aircraft were overhead 24-7, incredibly unlikely
08:03given how few, it means that these FP-1s would have been tracked for several hours to enable aircraft
08:08to get airborne, Bonnet says. Still, Ukraine's new FP-1ER drones avoided what should have been
08:14certain doom. That's likely due to them being small targets that can fly at low altitudes.
08:19While the drones would have still been visible on some Russian radars, flying low means that Russia's
08:24fighter jet had to head down to an uncomfortable altitude to confront the drones. Clearly, the Su-57
08:29failed in its task. To fly this low highlights how difficult these drones must be to detect, Bonnet adds.
08:36Here's what Russia now seems to face. A new Ukrainian drone, which is really a remix of an existing drone,
08:41that can fly 3,400 kilometers, deliver a large payload precisely, and can circumvent air defenses and
08:48evade Russia's best fighter jet. That's a nightmare for Putin. And we've seen the results of that
08:54nightmare play out in Omsk. We're about to reveal just what the FP-1ER did at the Siberian refinery.
09:00But before we do, this is a reminder that you're watching the military show. If you're getting
09:04insight from our channel, remember to subscribe and ring the notification bell to see more of our videos.
09:11Let's come back to the Omsk refinery. We've gone into depth on the type of drone that Ukraine used to
09:16hit that refinery, which is located in Siberia. But we haven't told you about the results of the
09:21strike. Those results are important. All of the redesigns and impressive specifications in the
09:26world don't mean a thing unless Ukraine's new drone can do damage once it arrives at its target.
09:31And boy, did Ukraine's drones do damage. Ukraine chose the Omsk refinery for a few reasons.
09:36The distance is one of them, of course. What better way to show Russia that it has a new threat
09:41to deal
09:41with than send that threat to a refinery that is around 2,500 kilometers away from Ukraine.
09:46A distance record was broken with the Omsk drone strike, and that's a message in and of itself.
09:52But far more importantly, the Omsk refinery is the largest in all of Russia, accounting for about
09:5810% of all the country's oil refining, Euromiden press reports. Omsk provides over half of all the
10:05motor fuel used in the Siberian federal district and is capable of processing 22 million metric tons
10:10of crude oil every single year. Ukraine's strike didn't just target the refinery. The FP1ER proved
10:17its precision by taking out a pair of distillation units at Omsk that combined to enable the processing
10:22of 50,000 tons of crude daily. Satellite imagery that emerged the day after the July 6th attack
10:28shows us that Ukraine's drones managed to score four hits against the refinery.
10:33The ELOU AVT-11 unit that Ukraine struck alone has a capacity of 8.6 million metric tons of crude
10:40oil per year, and that is now a flaming wreck. Process pipelines were also hit in Omsk. What we
10:46see here is a level of precision that makes us question whether the FP1ER relies on satellite and
10:51inertial navigation alone. Ukraine's drones traveled thousands of kilometers and struck very specific
10:57targets buried within a sprawling facility. That's the kind of accuracy that nobody expected,
11:02and it lends more fuel to the fire of the AI targeting rumors that are going around.
11:07Rumors about the FP1ER aside, we know that Ukraine's drone has caused catastrophic damage.
11:12In a follow-up report, Reuters revealed that Russia has been forced to suspend
11:16processing at the Omsk refinery for an unspecified amount of time. Damage processing and assessment is
11:22already underway at the facility, and whatever repair work needs to be done will have to happen against a
11:26backdrop of Western sanctions, making it harder than ever for Russia to source the components that
11:31it needs to carry out its repairs. With the FP1ER, Ukraine has just severed Siberia's fuel artery,
11:38and it's done it at a distance never seen before. That brings us nicely to what all of this means
11:43for
11:43the future. First, Ukraine's refinery campaign just got stronger than ever. Striking Russia's
11:49largest oil refinery is a message that Putin can't ignore, but it comes on the back of an escalating
11:54refinery campaign that has left Russia in crisis mode. With the Omsk strike under its belt, Ukraine
12:01has now officially hit all 11 of the largest oil refineries in Russia, United24 media reported on July
12:087th. That is a strategic milestone simply because Russia's Siberian refinery wasn't ever supposed to
12:14be in Ukraine's range. Now it is, and what that means for Russia is that a refinery campaign that
12:19was already causing a ton of financial and domestic pain is going to become a whole lot more problematic.
12:25The 11 refineries that Ukraine has hit have a combined crude oil processing capability of about 156
12:32million tons annually. That's without counting smaller refineries that Ukraine also struck.
12:38Once the FP1ER enters mass production, the refineries that are furthest away from Ukraine
12:43now become legitimate targets for the types of repeat strikes that Ukraine has been conducting
12:47against refineries that are closer to the border. In other words, we're expecting an Omsk double tap
12:53sooner rather than later. More refinery strikes mean a new level of Russia's existing fuel crisis can be
12:59achieved. That crisis is already spreading deep and wide across Russia. CNN reports that a crisis that
13:06started in Crimea as a result of Ukraine's logistics lockdown program has extended to touch almost all of
13:12Russia's 83 regions in one way or another. Queues at the gas pumps are stretching so far that it can
13:18take
13:19multiple hours of waiting to get to a station. And in many cases, those hours pay off with a gasoline
13:24restriction that means the average Russian can't even fill up their vehicle's tank. Prices are going up as
13:30fuel stocks run low and there is frustration among the Russian population that is boiling over to fighting in
13:36some cases. Russia's response to all of this is to ban every type of major fuel export. On July 8th,
13:43the news broke
13:43that Russia banned diesel exports along with jet fuel exports. That comes on the back of a gasoline export ban
13:49that is
13:50supposed to run to the end of July, but is very likely to be extended. And how do we know?
13:56Russia has
13:56announced that it's going to start importing gasoline and other petroleum products in July,
14:00and a nation that needs to buy fuel is hardly in a position to start selling again. Russia thinks it
14:06can recover from this crisis. Ukraine just showed Russia that any recovery isn't going to happen.
14:11A new long-range drone is in the air and it opens up more refinery strikes than ever before.
14:16And it's not just refineries. Everything in Russia, up to Siberia, has become a target.
14:21The Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies has an interesting interactive map.
14:27On that map we see every military base that Russia has on its own turf, as well as elsewhere. Most
14:32of
14:32these bases are concentrated in central and western Russia, what looks like hundreds of them in fact.
14:38But about a third of the way across Russia's territory in the south we see Omsk. And what we know
14:43now is
14:43Ukraine's FP1ER can literally hit everything to the west of that region. Oh, and remember that Omsk is
14:492500 kilometers away from Ukraine. The FP1ER has another 900 kilometers in the tank, so it could
14:56well be capable of striking the collection of bases that Russia has developed to the east of the Omsk
15:00refinery. That's the aspect of this new drone that Putin may not even be accounting for. Ukraine's
15:06refinery strikes have been grabbing all the headlines, but every airframe that Russia has in a
15:10base that launches missiles and glide bombs at Ukraine has just become a target. The same goes
15:15for ammunition depots and military industrial facilities. Of course, striking these types of
15:19targets is nothing new for Ukraine. As United24 Media points out in a July 9th piece, Ukraine has
15:26hit six of Russia's major missile production plants since March. But the thing to remember here is that
15:31it was only in April that Ukraine was claiming that it had expanded its strike range by two and a
15:36half
15:36times since the beginning of the war, reaching 1750 kilometers. Just a couple of months later,
15:43that range has been almost doubled. That's what it all comes down to. Ukraine's reach has grown
15:48farther and faster than even it seemed to believe it could. It's not quite accurate to say that
15:53everything in Russia has become a target due to the FP1ER, but everything in Russia that might even be
15:58slightly relevant to Putin's invasion, that's become fair game. Ukraine's deep strike strategy has just
16:04leveled up and Russia is trying to do everything that it can to stop it. There are reports that
16:09Russia has started to deploy powerful jammers that are supposedly capable of cutting off the
16:13Starlink satellite signals that Ukraine's drones use. If that's the case, they fail to stop the FP1ERs
16:20sent to Omsk. Yet another suggestion that AI is in place. On the air defense front, Putin has ordered
16:26that the manufacturing of new air defense systems must become a priority for Russian industry.
16:30That's going to be a tall order, given that Russia's air defense problem is nothing new,
16:35and the Omsk strike has exposed it as being a bigger problem than anybody thought.
16:39Russia's size has been used against it by Ukraine for a long time. Now, with the FP1ER not only ready,
16:46but proven as combat effective, what was once Russia's greatest strength could end up being
16:50the weakness that loses Putin the war. Innovation lies at the heart of everything that Ukraine does,
16:56and the FP1ER is the perfect example. But don't forget about the front lines. With so much focus
17:02being placed on Ukraine's rear assault, it's easy to forget that there is as much brilliance on the
17:06front line as there is in the long-distance aspect of Ukraine's strategy. Do you want an example?
17:11Well, Ukraine just turned a fence post into an absolute terror for Russian ground forces. We know you
17:17want to find out more, and you can if you check out our video to see what Ukraine has come
17:21up with.
17:21And if you enjoyed this video, hit subscribe right now. We are The Military Show,
17:26and we deliver coverage like this every single day. And thank you, as always, for watching.
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