Putin's Closest Allies Are Finally Turning Against Him

The Military Show

In a shocking televised meeting in Omsk, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev confronted Vladimir Putin directly to his face, urging an immediate "freeze" to the war in Ukraine. Questioning the very justification for Moscow’s invasion, Tokayev exposed Kazakhstan’s shifting stance and growing economic leverage over a weakened Russia. Driven by Western pressure and Black Sea oil disruptions, Central Asia’s geopolitical balance is rapidly changing.  ⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Tokayev Tells Putin to End Ukraine War Live 01:25 - Tokayev Demands Putin Freeze Ukraine War in Omsk 02:45 - Kazakhstan Refuses to Recognize Russian Occupied Ukrainian Land 04:10 - Russia Requests 50,000 Tons Gasoline From Kazakhstan 05:30 - Ukrainian Strikes Hit Caspian Pipeline Black Sea Ports 06:55 - Kazakhstan Signs 12 Billion Dollar European Union Deal 08:15 - Kazakhstan Exports 1.2 Million Tons Oil to China 09:30 - Putin Refuses Ceasefire Proposals as Russian Isolation Grows 10:45 - Is Kazakhstan Turning Away From Putin and Russia?  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow  SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/EKGBKEUN

Transcript

00:00There's brave, and then there's having the cojones so massive that you could use them as your own

00:05personal life raft. Kazakhstan's president, Kasim Jamar Tokayev, could cross the Pacific Ocean with

00:11his. Why do we say that? So long an ally of Putin, Tokayev has just sat across from Russia's leader,

00:18on live television, no less, and delivered a message directly to his face. Russia is going

00:24to lose. So end the war now. Putin crawled out of one of his many bunkers for this. He was

00:30humiliated, unable to do anything other than grimace as Tokayev spoke. And now Putin has to

00:35deal with the fact that even those who are supposed to support him can see the writing on the wall

00:40for

00:41Russia. This was supposed to be a moment of triumph for Putin. On July 25th, after venturing out into

00:47the public domain for the first time in weeks, Putin started with a carefully controlled publicity stunt

00:52in Irkutsk. Russia's leader then ventured to Omsk to meet with Tokayev. Putin's handlers had timed the

00:57visit well. By the end of July, the smoke would have cleared and the smell of burning fuel that

01:02resulted from Ukraine conducting a record-breaking strike against the refinery in that Siberian city

01:07would have disappeared. Putin would now have an opportunity to stand with Tokayev on national

01:13television, to deliver a message to the Russian people about economic cooperation and all of the

01:18deals that the two leaders were going to strike between each other. Putin was looking forward to

01:23discussing the next steps in the evolution of the relationship between these two nations.

01:28Tokayev had other ideas. As Kazakhstan's president began to speak, none of the Putin-pleasuring

01:33platitudes that Russia's leader expected to hear were on his mind. Tokayev actually had something to say.

01:39He didn't want to talk about details. Tokayev wanted to talk about Ukraine. And the words that came

01:45out of Tokayev's mouth would have felt like a slap in Putin's face that was so hard it could have

01:50been

01:50delivered by the crew of Jackass and their giant hand contraption. I will not hide the fact that

01:55I am receiving many signals, of which I have already informed you about by phone, from Europe

02:00and the United States of America, regarding the current state of the conflict between Ukraine and

02:04Russia, Tokayev declared as television cameras filmed every remark and every single one of Putin's

02:10grimaces to be beamed out all over Russia. Tokayev then went on to state. The nature of this conflict

02:16is not entirely clear. Again, he did this right in front of Putin, almost nonchalantly letting the

02:22entire world know that the many reasons that Putin has given for his invasion, from wanting to combat

02:27Nazism in the country, to his history-twisting claims that Russians and Ukrainians are one people,

02:32hold no water. Tokayev doesn't believe any of it. Then, Tokayev delivered the slap heard around the

02:38world. This all needs to stop, Kazakhstan's president declared, as he called on Putin to

02:44freeze the war. And when he does, Tokayev added, Putin won't be able to count on Kazakhstan to serve

02:51as a mediator that might be friendly to Russia. Kazakhstan categorically refuses to be that mediator,

02:57Tokayev blared. After all, Russia is a great country and it can manage on its own, the Kazakh leader

03:03said. Putin was stunned. Blindsided. The best he could offer in response when he rose to speak

03:09again was a weak claim that he would offer a detailed briefing to Tokayev after the media event

03:15was over. That briefing would be pointless. Tokayev has heard it all before and Putin knows it.

03:20What Russia's leader has just had to endure as being forced to sit in the background as a president

03:24who is allied to Russia, at least in terms of trade and economic growth, just went off on him

03:29about how stupid he is for continuing a war that he clearly isn't winning. Putin was humiliated.

03:34He'd have been having a good day up until this point. That Irkutsk visit had gone well,

03:38as Putin turned up at the region's aviation plant during an unannounced visit,

03:43where he inspected an MC-21 passenger jet and a Yak-130M combat trainer. The bodyguards that

03:49surrounded him hinted at Putin's paranoia and fear of assassination. But it had all gone well.

03:54Then Putin arrived in Omsk to get waylaid by a man who was supposed to kneel down,

03:59kiss the ring, and thank Russia for serving as a trading partner. Dmitry Kalezev, who is a Russian

04:05journalist, summed the whole humiliation up perfectly, stating,

04:08Ultimately, it amounted to a polite articulation of the argument that Putin's invasion of Ukraine

04:13was essentially an act of madness and a personal whim. This was, of course, a slap in the face for

04:19Putin, who had been peddling his root cause of the conflict for years. And now this public rebuke

04:24delivered straight to his face. There are no root causes. Putin simply made them up.

04:29Bruised and beleaguered from an encounter that was supposed to go so much differently,

04:33Putin would have left to hunker down in another of his bunkers. He had been humiliated,

04:37directly insulted to his face by a man whom he trusted to toe the line. And as he once again

04:43hid himself from view, likely not to emerge publicly again for weeks as he recovered from

04:47the embarrassment, there would have been one word playing on repeat in his mind. Why?

04:52It is a good question and one that has a multifaceted answer. In a moment, we are going to explain

04:56all

04:57of the reasons that Tokayev had for doing what he just did to Putin. But before we do this,

05:01this is the military show. If you haven't subscribed to the channel, now is the perfect time. And while

05:06you are at it, remember to ring the notification bell to make sure our daily videos arrive in your

05:10feed. Now, the obvious answer to Putin's big question might seem to be Ukraine itself.

05:16Putin will immediately descend into a frothing rage about how Ukraine has turned Kazakhstan against

05:21Russia. But he would only be half right. And not for the reasons that he thinks. Though long a trade

05:26ally of Russia, Kazakhstan has never once given Putin any indication that it supports him or his

05:31supposed special military operation in Ukraine. From very early on in the war, Kazakhstan declared

05:37that it doesn't recognize any of what it called the separatist territories in Ukraine as independent.

05:42That put the kibosh on any support that Putin might have expected. Officially, Kazakhstan doesn't

05:48recognize occupied Crimea as being Russian. Nor does it recognize any of the territory that Russia

05:53has occupied since February 2022. That land is Ukrainian and should remain so, Kazakhstan says.

06:00But Putin could absorb that. Kazakhstan is far more important to Russia as a trade partner,

06:04not a military one. It's not like the Central Asian country has a particularly impressive military,

06:09so even this lack of support for Russia's actions was unlikely to translate into military aid to

06:14Ukraine. Plus, this is what Kazakhstan does, Putin would have reasoned. It walks the tightrope of

06:20diplomacy between everyone to remain as neutral as possible. Still, what Putin's invasion did,

06:25and he never saw this coming, was create a fissure in Russia's relationship with Kazakhstan.

06:29It wasn't and still isn't an outright split. However, as the years have gone on, the nature of the

06:35relationship between the two has changed. Before Ukraine, Russia was clearly the more powerful nation.

06:40There was a partnership, but it was far from equal. That has been the case for most of Central Asia,

06:45where Putin has spent years building Russia's influence by designing economic frameworks that

06:49favor Russia and insisting on the idea that Russia is the one nation that can keep countries like

06:54Kazakhstan safe. The invasion of Ukraine broke something in this relationship. It showed Kazakhstan

07:00that Russia could easily turn on any nation based on Putin's whims. And worse yet for Putin,

07:05the four and a half years of war and counting that have followed have shown that Russia is far from

07:10being as strong as it once was. The collective security arguments are no longer convincing,

07:14and as time has progressed, and Ukraine continues not only to hold out but cause serious damage to

07:20Russia, leaders like Tokayev are losing whatever fear that they may have had about speaking out.

07:25So Kazakhstan's collective opinion about what is happening in Ukraine plays a significant role in

07:30what we saw in Omsk. But it's the outcomes of Putin's invasion so far that offer the real

07:34reasons for Tokayev's actions. As the war has progressed, the balance of power between Russia

07:39and Kazakhstan has started to shift. We aren't about to tell you that Kazakhstan is now the more

07:44powerful of the two. It isn't, but Kazakhstan has evolved into a partner that was once nice to have,

07:49but has now become absolutely essential to Russia's survival against Ukraine.

07:54Tokayev knows that he now has leverage, and the clearest example of that leverage comes from the recent

07:58requests Russia has made to Kazakhstan for help with its growing fuel problem.

08:02As more of Russia's refineries burn and Ukraine continues to destroy fuel trucks and tankers all

08:08over the occupied territories, Russia has been plunged into a fuel crisis. Putin, cap in hand,

08:14approached Kazakhstan toward the end of June to request 50,000 tons of gasoline, to help alleviate

08:20the massive queues that were forming outside of gas stations all over Russia. Kazakhstan didn't commit

08:26immediately, only acquiescing to Putin's requests around a week after it was made.

08:30But in that moment, two things became clear to Tokayev. First, Russia still sees Kazakhstan as the

08:36little brother that can be squeezed whenever needed, despite the damage that such squeezing

08:41could do to Kazakhstan itself. And second, Russia is desperate. It has to be if it's asking for gasoline

08:47when the entire Russian nation is built around oil. This is the leverage that we're talking about.

08:52Tokayev knows that Putin needs Kazakhstan. Of course, Kazakhstan needs Russia too. Much of the

08:57oil that Kazakhstan sells makes its way through Russian pipelines first, and then on to other

09:02customers. But being so vital to Russia comes with some benefits, one of which appears to be having

09:07the ability to sit across from Putin and tell him, to his face, that his Ukraine invasion makes no

09:12sense and it's time that he ended his war. On top of all of this, Tokayev's statements serve as

09:17recognition of a fact that has become abundantly clear. Ukraine is a very dangerous country.

09:23Kazakhstan wants the Ukraine war to end because it's also having to deal with the aftermath of

09:27drone strikes that affect its ability to sell fuel and oil. Ukraine isn't hitting Kazakhstan directly.

09:33That would be a diplomatic mistake for the country that seems willing to support Ukraine's right to be

09:37a sovereign nation. But what Ukraine has been doing is striking that oil infrastructure upon

09:42which Kazakhstan relies that we mentioned. The Moscow Times reports that Ukraine's recent flurry

09:47of drone strikes in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, particularly attacks on the Caspian pipeline

09:52consortium terminal, have forced Kazakhstan's oil firms to reduce their daily output.

09:57Though described as a purely technical decision, the move is another reminder to Kazakhstan that Putin's

10:03war is damaging the nation. Ukraine has also regularly struck Novorossiysk, which is a Black Sea port.

10:09Now the hideout for the remnants of the Black Sea fleet, which has been chased out of its traditional

10:13base in Crimea's Sevastopol port. Novorossiysk is also a commercial port. Again, oil flows through it,

10:20some of it Kazakh, and that adds up to yet more disruption that Tokayev doesn't want to have to

10:25absorb on Putin's behalf. After all, Kazakhstan is like Russia in one respect. Its oil and gas sector is

10:31absolutely vital to Kazakhstan's economic health. Forbes reports that energy sales make up more than

10:3730% of Kazakhstan's gross domestic product and accounts for over 75% of the country's exports.

10:43If Ukraine's drones keep flying into the ports and terminals that Kazakhstan needs to sell its product,

10:48that amounts to economic pain for the country's people. So Tokayev's motivations are becoming clearer.

10:54There is an element of taking advantage of Kazakh leverage at play, but ultimately,

10:58Tokayev is doing what he is supposed to be doing, looking out for Kazakhstan. When he tells Putin that

11:03it's time to end the war, he's doing it because he knows that Russia can't win, not in the way

11:08that

11:08Putin wants to win. And as long as Putin keeps charging headlong into the endless abyss of his

11:13own ambition, life can't return to normal for Kazakhstan. Putin has a Kazakhstan-shaped problem.

11:20But beyond all of the reasons behind why Tokayev did what he did, there's an even larger issue

11:25brewing for Russia's leader. That issue comes down to something we touched upon earlier,

11:29which is that Kazakhstan is trying to be a friend to as many nations as possible.

11:33The Ukraine war has dragged on for so long now that playing all sides isn't an option anymore.

11:38Kazakhstan's multi-vector foreign policy, as Common Space puts it, has been put to repeated tests over

11:43the past half a decade. Be that by Russia's war, Operation Epic Fury, or creeping Chinese influence

11:49into Central Asia. Now Kazakhstan is being pushed toward having to choose a side.

11:54July 25th showed Putin one important thing. Russia isn't going to be the side that Kazakhstan chooses.

12:01Let's come back to one of the more interesting parts of Tokayev's short speech. You heard it earlier.

12:05Tokayev told Putin that he had received many signals from parties in the United States and Europe

12:10regarding the current state of Russia's campaign. The mystery here relates to what those signals were.

12:16However, we've talked about Kazakhstan having leverage over Russia, while the West has leverage

12:20over Kazakhstan. American and European leaders know that Kazakhstan and all of Central Asia

12:25have energy-related vulnerabilities due to their reliance on Russia as a go-between for their oil

12:30and the rest of the world. When Tokayev talks about receiving signals, he may be hinting that Western

12:35leaders have been letting him know that he needs to start putting pressure on Putin or they may start

12:40applying their own leverage. Perhaps not by purchasing Kazakh oil. Kazakhstan is now the European

12:46Union's third-largest oil supplier, so maybe there are threats being made about how all of that could

12:50go away if Tokayev doesn't apply some pressure. This is speculation, of course. Tokayev only hinted

12:56at Western influence, and that influence could be far more benign. After all, the end of June saw

13:00Kazakhstan land $12 billion in deals with the European Union, most of which revolved around the purchase of

13:0650 Airbus passenger jets from the EU. So perhaps Europe isn't cajoling Tokayev. Instead, Kazakhstan's leader may be

13:13having his head turned by all of the things that the West could provide to his nation that can't come

13:18from war-weary and heavily sanctioned Russia. Again, it's all speculative. But Putin will see

13:23the pattern emerging in these events, and he'll know that Russia is starting to lose influence in

13:27Kazakhstan. The nation that walked the tightrope seems about ready to jump off, and it's heading

13:32towards the West. GIS adds another wrench that can be thrown into the works. Kazakhstan is also

13:37increasingly looking toward China as a buyer for its oil. In fact, Kazakhstan only has two oil

13:43delivery routes that don't pass through Russia, one of which is via a pipeline that connects the

13:48country's Atasu province with Xinjiang, in China. That pipeline carried 1.2 million tons of crude oil

13:54to China in 2024, showcasing the viability of Kazakhstan decoupling itself from Russia.

14:00More work would have to be done, of course. But China, which produces practically no oil of its own,

14:05would be more than happy to build the required infrastructure, both for the oil and a chance

14:09to expand its influence in Central Asia at the expense of Russia. More and more of the full

14:14picture emerges. And by now it's becoming clear that Putin has trapped himself in a dangerous game

14:20that he would never have had to play if he hadn't invaded Ukraine. Everything that is happening in

14:24Kazakhstan right now, from the growing Ukrainian, Western, and Chinese influence to the country's

14:29leader having the guts to sit in front of Putin and humiliate him, is all a result of Putin's

14:33invasion lasting for nearly half a decade. Russia is now weaker than it was in 2022, much weaker.

14:40Putin's actions have come home to roost in the form of an ally telling him that it's about time

14:44to declare peace because his war makes no sense. Tokayev has delivered the message, but will Putin

14:50listen? As shocked as he was by what happened in Omsk, Putin isn't likely to pursue peace just because

14:55Tokayev told him that it's time. Don't get us wrong, Putin should listen. However, as Croatia's

15:00Vechenyi List points out, by way of the Kyiv Post, Putin isn't the sort of reasonable person who will

15:06listen to allies telling him that it's time to stop. Accepting the current state of affairs would

15:10mean recognizing Ukraine's sovereignty, which would be tantamount to a Ukrainian rather than Russian

15:15victory. That is unacceptable to Putin. Putin won't stop until he is forced to do so, the outlet says.

15:22There is evidence of this from recent events. Putin refuses to accept any sort of ceasefire,

15:27even though it's clear that Russia has lost the initiative in Ukraine and is getting battered

15:31both on the battlefield and by Ukraine's long-range sanctions. As we speak, there are rumors that

15:36Ukraine and the US have created a new peace proposal. However, the Kremlin has refused to

15:41acknowledge that proposal and won't comment until it has something tangible in its hands.

15:45The odds are high that if the proposal doesn't include Ukraine's ceding territory,

15:49then Putin won't accept it. He can't. Russia's leader is trapped. He has to keep the fight going in

15:54Ukraine because anything less than the victory that he promised leaves him vulnerable to overthrow.

15:59But if he keeps fighting, more of what we've just seen Takayev do will happen,

16:02as not only Kazakhstan but other Central Asian nations will invite more Western or Eastern influence.

16:08So what does Putin do? He either hurts himself or he hurts Russia. And when it comes down to it,

16:13there is nobody more important to Vladimir Putin than the man who stares back at him in the mirror,

16:18so he'll absorb one more ally disappearing. And in doing so, he'll damage Russia for years to come,

16:23that he won't even live to see. This is Takayev's true warning, that Putin won't listen. He should.

16:29What is happening with Kazakhstan is just a symptom of a Putin-shaped tumor that is causing Russia to

16:34rot right down to its core. The leader who is so desperate to cement his legacy as one of the

16:39legends

16:39of Russia is instead leading his nation into isolation and long-term decline that goes far

16:44beyond Kazakhstan. If you want to learn more, check out our video, which analyzes how Putin has set up

16:50Russia for something much worse than defeat in Ukraine. And if you enjoyed this video,

16:54remember to subscribe to The Military Show to see more of our in-depth analysis

16:58of the latest geopolitical developments. And thank you, as always, for watching.

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