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Unpacking voter psychology, youth dynamics, and the real numbers shaping Malaysia’s electoral future with Merdeka Centre’s Ibrahim Suffian.
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00:05Hello everybody, welcome to our podcast today. Today we're going to talk about numbers,
00:11political strategy, and also voter sentiment. And who is the best guy to ask about data
00:18other than our guest today, which is Ibrahim Sufian of Merdeka Center.
00:24Thank you for having me.
00:24Okay, first thing is, congratulations with Merdeka Center, you got the Johor prediction right.
00:33Okay, for me, on hindsight, how did the demographic, how did they vote?
00:41And especially the Gen Z and also the young voters.
00:46Thank you so much for having me on this podcast, really, it's an honour.
00:49I think when you look at Johor, I think first and foremost, Johor is a BN, Barisan National Stronghold State.
00:55So for the longest time, they have a very strong base of supporters there.
00:59And what we noticed is that in the last two elections, in the general election in 2018, 2022,
01:06general election, we noticed that the BN support amongst its supporters seemed to dwindle a bit.
01:12And partly because at that time, the politicians, leaders of the state, some splintered away,
01:19split away and formed a new party, Bersatu, at that time.
01:22So that took away some support from Barisan National.
01:25But I think what has happened in this recent state election, I think it marks a recovery for Barisan National
01:31on three counts.
01:32Number one, the voters of Barisan National, particularly supporters who were dissatisfied, maybe disillusioned with the party,
01:42have slowly started to come back.
01:44Number two, there's less political turmoil in the state because even though Barisan National is state government
01:53and Pakatan Harapan is opposition, but because Barisan National is part of the national coalition,
02:00there has not been a lot of very sharp criticism, there has not been a lot of contest in the
02:06state.
02:06And therefore, they've been able to carry out the work, there's not a lot of political drama in the state,
02:12and so Barisan National has done.
02:14And I think thirdly, the economy has performed very well in the state.
02:18Although there are issues, there are some gaps here and there, but by and large, people are very satisfied.
02:22And when we look at terms of overall support, support for Barisan National improved pretty much across its base,
02:30which is the Malay Muslim base.
02:31That one improved from 45% to 60%.
02:35But when we look at, say, Gen Z voters, for Gen Z voters, we see that the rise isn't as
02:42much.
02:42We notice that Gen Z voters, particularly in the Malay segment, they remain a bit anti-establishment.
02:49And when they say anti-establishment, it's not specifically going for Perikatan National,
02:56but some also went to support Pakatan Harapan.
02:59So support amongst the younger Malays, Gen Z is a bit more split.
03:05I think one pattern that I have to mention here is that in Johor,
03:09there is a big difference between the west coast of Johor and east coast of Johor.
03:13In east coast of Johor, Barisan National is very, very strong across the board.
03:17In the west coast, it is more contested.
03:19And I think this is where when we run some analysis, some research ahead of the state election,
03:24we focus more on the west coast because it's more multicultural.
03:28There's a lot more things going on there economically, but also a lot of challenges
03:33and also where most of the people live.
03:35And we find that there, support amongst Gen Z for Barisan National, most split.
03:41You know, it's about one-third for each party.
03:44Okay.
03:45Some people say that Barisan won is because of the Menteri Besar.
03:50What do you think?
03:51Is it solely him or he played a big factor?
03:54Well, it's multiple factors.
03:56I would say the Menteri Besar on Hafiz does play a strong role in ensuring that the support remains solid
04:03because, number one, he has been pretty much an efficient administrator.
04:10He has carried out his duties without a lot of controversies.
04:13And he seemed to be presiding over the strong economic growth of the state.
04:19And therefore, I think people see him as someone who is caring about the future of the state economy,
04:26is trying to solve problems and so on.
04:28Sometimes, you know, we see him at the customs checkpoint, we see him turun padang, as people say.
04:34And because of that, people feel that, you know, he's a good leader.
04:38That's one important factor.
04:40Because I think there, Barisan National has a clear leader whom people have already trusted
04:48and have a track record of administering.
04:51But beyond that, there is a wider improvement in terms of support.
04:55And I think this in part is due to the party leadership's effort to consolidate the party.
04:59So we noticed that after 2022, 2018, there's a splintering in the party.
05:04Some leaders left, some suspended, some, you know, expelled from the party.
05:09But under President UMNO, Dato' Zahid, he has the Rumah Bangsa concept where he's bringing back
05:15all those people that have left the party or were sidelined in the party.
05:20So now they're coming back.
05:21And I think this has allowed the party to consolidate and present a more unified front
05:27in the state election and I assume also in preparation for the future general election.
05:32Okay.
05:33All eyes now is in Negeri Sembilan.
05:36So how do you see the demographic in terms of voting compared to like, just say, yeah,
05:42any difference with Johor or it's uniquely Negeri Sembilan?
05:46I think there are some differences there.
05:47I think number one in where things are similar between Johor and Negeri Sembilan is that
05:52both in Negeri Sembilan as well as Johor, Barisan National in the Malay ground is quite strong.
05:58And I think these states, two states also see very limited penetration by PAS, you know,
06:04in the previous iterations.
06:07I mean, if you look back, go back for say 2018, PAS support amongst Malay voters in the state
06:15perhaps less than 12%.
06:16But over the years, because PAS has partnered with Bersatu, their support has increased.
06:22By the 2023 state elections, we noticed that PAS support among Malay voters in the state of Negeri Sembilan
06:30has actually gone beyond 50%.
06:33It's gone to 55%.
06:34So, this is different than in Johor, where in Johor, PAS support has not gone as far as to that
06:42extent.
06:42So, I think that's one aspect where there's some similarities, where Barisan remains strong.
06:48And so, in this election, it's again a test of the success of the Rumah Bangsa concept,
06:52whether or not Barisan National has consolidated all the supporters back to come back home.
06:58That's one aspect.
06:59And number two is whether or not PAS, which has now encountered some problems with Bersatu
07:03and I'll try to re-consolidate Perikatan National with Hamzah Zainuddin Party.
07:09So, we see how that is able to hold the ground in the state.
07:13Second, really, in terms of voter demographics, it's also mixed, like in Johor and also in Negeri Sembilan.
07:21It's also multicultural.
07:23But the multi-ethnic seats, the mixed seats are mostly around Seremban Town and a little bit around PD,
07:32so a bit limited.
07:33So, when we look at, say, more mixed seats, it only accounts for about 30-40% of the seats
07:42in the state assembly.
07:44And I think this also means that this election is actually an advantage for Barisan National.
07:51Furthermore, now they have an electoral pact with Perikatan National, right, with PAS.
07:54And so, their chances have become a lot better.
07:57You went ahead of my question.
08:00I'll ask you later about prediction.
08:02Before that, before I ask that big question, but it looks like I roughly know what's your prediction.
08:08Okay, you talk about Johor, you talk about Negeri Sembilan.
08:11How about national?
08:14How do you see the demographic?
08:15Yeah, I think if you look at, say, our politics right now, our politics have always been determined by ethnic
08:21voting.
08:22You know, because our voters are all represented by political parties that represent the ethnic group.
08:29So, typically, there's always two political parties that represent ethnic group, whether they're in government or they're in opposition.
08:36So, I think that, I think, will still be the case for the most part.
08:43However, I think we are now reaching a very interesting and potentially historic moment in our country's political history.
08:50Because never before has UMNO and PAS really worked together, you know, in the last maybe 60 years.
08:56You know, I think the last time they worked together was between 1970 and 1974.
09:00After that, they fell apart and since then, they have been basically contesting against one another.
09:08If, let's say, PAS and UMNO is able to bridge the gap and coordinate their contestation in the future elections,
09:17then, I think we see this, a new page in our country's political history where, you know, the identity voting
09:27is going to become more prominent
09:30and that has, I think, a lot of implications in terms of public life in our country.
09:34So, nationally, we see that the pattern that we saw in Johor and now that we are going to see
09:40in Negeri Sembilan
09:41will play itself out in national elections because of the cooperation between UMNO and PAS.
09:48Okay, then we are going to Melaka.
09:49Do you think PAS and UMNO will still be in this, some people call it marriage of convenience?
09:56And then, will it go into G16 or there's a possibility like some marriages or marriage of convenience that it
10:03will, they will break up?
10:05And, yeah, how do you see that?
10:07Well, I think the next election we are going to see is Melaka state election.
10:10And, I think, in Melaka, Barisan National is quite dominant.
10:13So, I think that it's a bit harder to imagine, you know, PAS demanding a lot of seats and wanting
10:19to contest by themselves.
10:20But, that remains to be seen because, you know, in politics, a lot of things are possible even if we
10:25think it's very hard to achieve.
10:27So, I think we might see some semblance of coordination between UMNO and PAS in the state election of Melaka
10:34and potentially in the national election as well.
10:37I would say, in Melaka, UMNO is dominant.
10:40So, basically, in the southern part of Peninsula Malaysia, Melaka, Negeri Sembilan and also Johor, Barisan National, UMNO is quite
10:48dominant there.
10:49And, therefore, PAS is playing a second part, secondary role.
10:52And, I think, we'll have to depend on Barisan National's generosity in order to give them seats to contest.
11:26But, I think, national elections is a different story completely.
11:28They will need PAS to concede some of the seats.
11:32So, it's something, a negotiation that hasn't happened yet.
11:35It may happen.
11:37But, I find it very difficult to imagine that PAS will give up seats that they have already won.
11:41So, I think this is something where I would give a 50% chance of it working out.
11:4750% chance of it not working out at national level.
11:50But, at state level, it's actually quite possible.
11:53Especially in state where Barisan National is dominant.
11:56I think the flip side to that is to imagine why would PAS give seats to UMNO in, say, Terengganu,
12:02where they won all the state constituency, right?
12:05So, maybe they give a handful.
12:07And, will UMNO be content with a limited contestation?
12:12Whereas, in state of Terengganu, Kelantan, Kedah, the Pakatan Harapan is not really a player in the political arena there.
12:20Based on your numbers, the one that, which PN won and UMNO won, it looks like UMNO will get such
12:29a small chunk, isn't it?
12:30So, big question is whether they're willing to accept that small chunk.
12:35Yeah, it looks like, I mean, even if, let's say, UMNO improve its political performance in the future general election,
12:41the number of seats it can attain is quite limited.
12:44Maybe 40, maybe 50 seats if they're very lucky, you know, if they have an electoral pact with PAS.
12:50So, the question is, if PAS continue to have more seats than UMNO, will they allow UMNO the Prime Minister
13:00post?
13:01And even if they allow UMNO the Prime Minister post, they will still demand other positions in government, senior post
13:08in the cabinet.
13:09And also, it will mark their entry into government in a much more pervasive, much more powerful way that could,
13:16I think, in the long run, you know, disadvantage UMNO in the future.
13:21Okay, I changed a bit of the topic.
13:24What's your free advice to, I call them fringe party at the moment, to just say Bersama, Bersatu, I consider
13:33fringe, and also Muda.
13:35What's your free advice to them?
13:36Well, I think for the smaller parties that we are still seeing in the political arena, I think first and
13:42foremost, parties like Muda and Bersama, they have, I would say, an uphill task in trying to win over votes.
13:52In part because they are grounded or they're founded on the notion of reform or fighting for certain specific segments
13:59of society.
14:00That segment is very small, you know, and mostly centred around urban areas.
14:05In urban areas, we have Pakatan Harapan already quite established.
14:08But with the emergence of PAS and Barisan National working together, it also means that the votes that used to
14:17be split in the previous elections may be now consolidated.
14:21And so, what we have seen in the Johor election is that while they are not able to win seats,
14:29parties like Muda and Bersama can potentially help Barisan National win seats.
14:34You know, if you imagine the place, say Pandan, where it is on paper, Barisan National lost the seat, PAS
14:42also lost the seat, and Pakatan Harapan won the seat by a handsome margin in the 2022 January election.
14:48But if we imagine the situation where BN and PAS work together, and then you have a party like Bersama
14:54contest there, and the voters who are going to vote for Bersama are the people who are more likely than
14:59not vote Pakatan Harapan.
15:01So, that's going to split the Pakatan Harapan. So, the challenge now is, what will Pakatan Harapan do, you know,
15:06in the confronting parties like Bersama?
15:10And I think, so, I think Bersama will have a challenge to win seats, but it can have an impact
15:18on the election.
15:20But I think they have to ask themselves, what kind of impact do you want?
15:23Do you want to assist a reform agenda, or do you want parties that are the more traditional parties like
15:30BN or PAS win the election?
15:33So, what's the outcome that they seek to achieve?
15:35Whereas for parties like Bersatu, they have, I think, a unique proposition.
15:39Because parties like Bersatu is, you know, tailored for the Malay market, you know, right of centre, more conservative or
15:47nationalist Malay party.
15:48And even though they have now fallen out with PAS and splintered with this party, Wawasan Negara, you know, comprising
15:56some of the MPs have broken off and formed their own thing.
16:00They still represent, I would say, a unique proposition.
16:03So, if they have an electoral pact with Pakatan Harapan, they could potentially be able to come back.
16:13Because I think, one of the things that we've noticed in Malaysian political history over the years, most splintered parties
16:19never last two election cycles.
16:22You know, and with the exception of PKR, when it splintered away from UMNO, right?
16:28And if they form themselves as an ethnic party, it's even harder to survive.
16:35The reason is because the support is very, very limited.
16:38And over time, the issues that propel the party to be formed, the issues begin to dissipate.
16:46People are not as angry anymore.
16:47And then, over time, people will go back to the old party and new voters that come on stream, they
16:54are no longer aware of the issues that created this party in the beginning.
16:58So, they have to think of themselves, their political career, their political future.
17:04Because I think as a brand, a party like Bersatu can still play an important role.
17:10But they have to use this moment very, very strategically in order to ensure that they have continuity.
17:17So, see whether I got you right, it looks like what you're saying is there's a possibility that Datu Azmin
17:23Ali will be back with Datu Sri Anwar Ibrahim in terms of a PAK.
17:29I mean, we cannot deny that, all right?
17:33I would say that I think in moments where they all need each other, I think people will find, you
17:38know, an opportunity to find work together.
17:40Because it fits the interests of both sides.
17:45They both need each other potentially to face the challenges of GE16.
17:51So, it will be something like GE14, isn't it?
17:55When Bersatu and PKR and DAP and Amanah...
18:00Yeah, a PH 1.0, right?
18:02A PH 1.0 moment in 2018 where they were all together.
18:06And that at the time when PH was able to capture majority of the seats by themselves.
18:11And so, I think the problem that we have in our political situation right now is that none of the
18:16parties can win majority by themselves.
18:18None of the coalitions can win by themselves.
18:21So, they have to partner with one another.
18:23The thing that have changed before compared to before is whether or not, once they have won, they can stick
18:30to it, you know, and then not go and jump ship and join another gang.
18:34Okay, prediction time.
18:36You were already giving us hints on who will win.
18:39There are 36 seats in Negeri Sembilan.
18:43Which coalition will win?
18:45I think based on the work that we are doing in Negeri Sembilan right now, I think the advantage lies
18:49with Barisan Nasional.
18:50And Perikatan Nasional.
18:53Because when we look at the 36 seats, right, so Barisan is contesting 24 and Perikatan is contesting 12.
19:01Or was it 11? I can't remember.
19:02Only 12.
19:03Okay.
19:03And so, they already split the seats among themselves.
19:05And what we are seeing in Johor probably will play itself out.
19:09Like most of the Malay voters in those constituencies, they're just going to vote for the majority party, the bigger
19:15party.
19:16Either BN or PN.
19:18Of course, we can go into the details and some places we notice that the Barisan Nasional people are unhappy
19:23because they don't want to vote for the past guy, but it's a past candidate there.
19:28So, there's an issue of vote transferability.
19:30But given the demographics of this area, I would say that in constituencies where there are more than 65%
19:40Malay voters in that constituency, Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional have advantage in the seats.
19:48So, we are seeing that very likely Barisan and PN will be able to win the election.
19:54The question is, we didn't do the count in terms of BN and PN, which parties are winning those seats.
20:00It's an uphill challenge for PH to actually hang on to power because even in the last state election, they
20:09only won 14.
20:10You know, so they were still short of the 19 needed for majority.
20:13We think that they can still potentially keep 14 seats.
20:17Maybe they'll dwindle down to 13 or even 12.
20:21But it's hard for them to, I think, get to 19 seats in the current situation when their opponents have
20:27decided to work together.
20:29Okay.
20:30How stable is this unity government in national level?
20:37Are they stable?
20:39Because the other partner, which is the main partner, that is UMNO, is with PASS, the opposition.
20:46So, how do you see the stability of this unity government?
20:50I think the stability is definitely going to be doubted by many people and also I think in terms of
20:57real effectiveness.
20:58I think number one, I think, let me start by saying that I think the stability is still up for
21:07grabs.
21:08It's still not lost.
21:09It also depends on the behaviour of the leaders of the different coalitions.
21:14If they begin to attack one another openly in the national level stage, then I think the stability is going
21:20to be short-lived.
21:21Or if they entertain ideas in order to topple the government by forming a new coalition with other parties, that
21:29definitely will be, I think, a question that's on a lot of people's minds.
21:33So, I think the stability index probably dropped.
21:37You know, if let's say it was maybe 90 before Johor, now it's gone to 80, you know, and maybe
21:46after Negeri Sembilan, it'll probably go down to 65, 70.
21:49If I want to give an indication of what the levels of confidence are, so it's still there.
21:56But a lot depends now on the personality powers of the main coalition leaders, whether they want to continue to
22:02work together or whether they are feeling that since generic election is very near, I might as well start to
22:08compete now.
22:09You know, that I think is going to be increasingly washed out for going to be the case.
22:16You said personality involved. Who are the main key personalities that will keep this unity government stable or destabilize it?
22:26The leaders of the parties, the Prime Minister, President of UMNO and his Deputy President, the President of GPS, GRS
22:35and the other parties that currently make up the unity government, so they are key.
22:39So, if let's say, if the parties from Sabah and Sarawak entertain the idea that we can form a government
22:46with Barisan National and Perikatan National, then the government will collapse.
22:51So, a lot depends on basically now personal leadership.
22:54So, I think we are now entering the era where leadership really matters whether or not this coming year is
23:01going to be stable or going to be fraught with political volatility.
23:05Okay. My last question. So, when do you think it's BUBAR?
23:10For general election?
23:11Yeah, G16.
23:13I think you have to ask the only God and Prime Minister Anwar knows, but if you want to speculate,
23:19right, if you want to speculate and look at timing, I think number one, you know, Prime Minister Anwar, I
23:24think he, you know, has got a good thing going.
23:27I think a lot of people who focus on the daily politics, I think, fail to see maybe some of
23:34the stuff that he's trying to do.
23:36I think the challenges that we see facing the country, and this comes from the surveys that we carry out,
23:42everyone complains about cost of living, everybody's complain about stagnant wages and all that.
23:48I think when we come to this point, I think the Prime Minister and his team got the strategy right,
23:53which is to expand the economy.
23:55And I would say that compared to all our neighbours in the region, Malaysia is about the only country that
24:03has been able to continue to attract a lot of foreign investments into the country.
24:08At a time when there's all this uncertainty because you've got US-China trade war, you've got conflict Middle East
24:15and in Europe, you know, but he's been doing a lot of marketing work and bringing people in.
24:20And in the beginning, when he first took on office, I noticed that people in opposition were saying that, oh,
24:28he doesn't have an economic plan.
24:29And then, you know, and then he carry on and do these things.
24:32But we can see now, the broader strategy is to actually expand the economy so that we don't have to
24:37tax people so much.
24:39And then there's greater demand for talent and skilled workers and all that.
24:44So salaries should rise.
24:46But all of these strategies take time to take root, to be implemented, to translate into jobs.
24:53And I think the government is not doing a great job about selling their story, you know, about their strategy.
25:00Unlike, say, the time of Dr. Mahathir, where everybody saw Dr. Mahathir as a visionary.
25:05But Dr. Mahathir didn't live in the era of TikTok and threads and Twitter, you know, and, you know, WhatsApp.
25:13So he's got, I think, the bigger picture, right?
25:17But I think the challenge is ensuring that some of this economic growth trickles down to the people and it's
25:25taking time.
25:26And therefore, we continue to see dissatisfaction.
25:29And it is dissatisfaction and distrust that we have amongst our voters that's giving room for his competition,
25:38the opponents, the alternative parties, to actually say that he's not doing such a good job.
25:43And I think it is his interest to actually try and delay the election for as long as possible, take
25:50it to the full term.
25:51It will be in his interest to do that because then it gives him an ability to actually deliver or
25:59manifest some of the benefits to the rakyat before the election
26:02so that they understand what it means.
26:05Because we've got budget speech in 2027, for 2027 coming up.
26:10And then if he can take it to the full term, he's got two budget speeches that he can give,
26:16right?
26:16And so that, I think, is room for him to explain but also display what he has done for the
26:24country.
26:24Okay.
26:25It looks like according to Ibrahim Sufian of Merdeka Center, PM will stretch it until the end.
26:35Thanks so much for tuning in.
26:38Thanks for your insight.
26:40I'm Philip Goringai.
26:42Thanks.
26:55I'm Philip Goringai.
26:56I'm Philip Goringai.
26:56I'm Philip Goringai.
26:57I'm Philip Goringai.
26:57I'm Philip Goringai.
26:57I'm Philip Goringai.
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