Get the latest scoop on the Russia-Ukraine war! We break down the past three months: slowed Russian advances, epic drone battles, and Ukraine’s high-tech tactics. Curious about who controls what, wild logistics sabotage, and the real numbers behind the headlines? Dive in for sharp analysis and bold predictions! Subscribe for more updates, and tell us in the comments what surprised you most! #Ukraine #Russia #War #News #Drones
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0:00 - Overview and Drone Superiority
0:48 - Territorial Changes and Frontlines
2:18 - Casualties and Human Costs
5:04 - Material Losses and Equipment
7:58 - Southern Front and Logistics War
13:32 - Eastern Front and Stalemate in Donbas
19:08 - Long-Range Warfare and Modernization
26:47 - Strategic Overview and Outlook
We are now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/6KW2Zo9GU39VZSvv2zIpxM
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@xaviertytelman
0:00 - Overview and Drone Superiority
0:48 - Territorial Changes and Frontlines
2:18 - Casualties and Human Costs
5:04 - Material Losses and Equipment
7:58 - Southern Front and Logistics War
13:32 - Eastern Front and Stalemate in Donbas
19:08 - Long-Range Warfare and Modernization
26:47 - Strategic Overview and Outlook
We are now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/6KW2Zo9GU39VZSvv2zIpxM
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to this video where we update you on the Russia-Ukraine front over the past
00:05three months. This period has been marked by a clear slowdown in Russian advances and even a
00:10retreat in the southern area. But above all, we have seen confirmation of Ukrainian dominance in
00:15the field of drones, both at short range with more and more FPV kamikaze drones, which now
00:20cause more than 80% of casualties for the Russians, as well as at medium range, which is having an
00:25increasingly significant effect on Russian logistics, which is being hit almost everywhere,
00:29especially in the south. But also with this new superiority in the field of long-range drones,
00:34which is making it increasingly difficult for Russia to finance its war effort, with dozens of
00:39ammunition depots, factories, logistics centers, and refineries being destroyed, this is now causing
00:45fuel shortages in more than half of the Russian regions. So if we start with an analysis of the
00:50territorial changes of the control of the ground by Russia and by Ukraine, overall the Russian advance
00:55has been almost completely stopped. Or more precisely, the advance along the Donbass is very
01:00slow, while Ukraine has been regaining ground, especially in the south of the country since
01:04February. And actually, it is becoming increasingly difficult to measure territorial control by both
01:10sides. For example, if Russians must leave Crimea due to heavy bombardment, they're within Ukrainian
01:16artillery range and unable to defend themselves. Is it considered a liberated area as soon as the Ukrainians
01:21managed to plant a flag there? Or is it an area that has become a gray zone? In the same
01:26way, when
01:26the Ukrainians managed to retake trenches to regain ground and to control it with robots, does a robot
01:32count as controlling the area? Or does there really have to be humans in that zone? So that means the
01:38gray
01:38zone isn't calculated in the same way, depending on the analysts. But overall, those like ISW who count
01:44ground held by robots as controlled territory, consider that Russia has retreated by 400 square kilometers
01:49between April and May. Some say Russia is breaking records for slowness, not advancing this slowly
01:55since summer 2023. So in any case, we can at least consider that Russia is stuck on the front,
02:00that it's advancing so slowly that it's almost imperceptible on the front, or even that it's
02:05retreating. If we consider that some areas that were occupied have become gray zones again,
02:09even though, of course, there are still areas where they are making progress, especially along the
02:14axis around Konstantinivka in the Donbass, we'll get to that in a moment. If we look now at
02:19casualties, well, the rate of Russian losses remains very high, around 1,000 losses per day,
02:24which is problematic because it now exceeds the number of new recruits who agree to join the army.
02:29Ukraine shares thousands of videos each week like this, proving that many Russians are killed by
02:34FPV kamikaze drones. And in the end, we can prove the death of more than 230,000 Russian soldiers
02:40whose names we know individually. You can see here some war memorials that are appearing all over Russia,
02:46knowing that there is a delay of almost a year between the death and the confirmation of the
02:50names. And so, the most reliable estimates now say that Russia has surpassed 500,000 dead and
02:56missing. This figure has been confirmed by British intelligence chiefs, knowing that the Russian
03:01notarial register of successions had already recorded an excess mortality of more than 350,000
03:07people by the end of 2025. Let's return to analyzing the situation in Ukraine.
03:13So, overall, including the wounded, the dead, the missing, and the prisoners,
03:17Russia has losses ranging between 1.3 and 1.5 million men. And the worst part is that the rate
03:24of losses doesn't seem to be decreasing, since the Russian methods remain exactly the same,
03:28while Ukrainian drones are becoming more and more numerous in an attempt to stop infiltration
03:33attempts. Here is just one example of the many failed assaults we see daily along the front,
03:38with Russians running across fields and being picked off by drones. To these incredible numbers,
03:44we also have to add the tens of thousands of foreigners who have been killed, like the 2,300
03:48North Korean soldiers who died in Ukraine, as is now confirmed by the new war memorial that was
03:53inaugurated by Kim Jong-un. And according to Andrew Perpetua and his team, who analyze more than 300
03:59videos shared by both sides every day, the rate of Russian losses is not decreasing, because the
04:05Russians continue to use the same method, even though its effectiveness is very low compared to
04:09the human cost required for each of these operations. On the Ukrainian side, the dead and missing now
04:14number more than 205,000 according to UA losses, which records the dead, missing, and prisoners,
04:20thanks to a network of investigators who visit cemeteries. For example, in all Ukrainian cities,
04:25you have this type of memorial that is set up directly in front of the city hall. So, you know
04:29who died in the city, and all the reporters can come and see. The Ocenters can do analyses, and we
04:35know
04:35exactly what is happening, unfortunately, in the country. So, the Ukrainian figures, that's why they are
04:41very reliable, because there is direct transparency in the cities, but also with the lists of people who
04:47are awarded medals, which are directly available through government lists. And so, including the wounded,
04:52Ukrainian losses would be more than 500,000 men. This is a figure that is confirmed by Dutch
04:57intelligence services, and so, overall, the rate of Russian losses is still two and a half times
05:02higher than that of Ukraine. This is normal for a country that is launching attacks, especially
05:07compared to a country that is mostly on the defensive. The one who sticks his head out of
05:11the trench, who puts himself in danger, and the one who picks them off with kamikaze drones,
05:16obviously the latter suffers fewer losses. If we now look at the material losses on both sides,
05:21the statistics show a continuous surge in the number of pieces of equipment destroyed,
05:25but actually, this number is misleading, or rather, we need to distinguish between military
05:30equipment and civilian equipment. Overall, the Russians have stopped sending armored columns
05:34to carry out assaults every day, since this method wasn't working and they have virtually exhausted
05:39their stock, which didn't allow them to sustain that level of losses. So, for example, in this video,
05:44they are going to send 28 motorcycles for only three infantry fighting vehicles and no tanks.
05:49And that's why, in the statistics, we see today four times fewer Russian material losses than what we
05:54could observe a year ago, and what you see here are the statistics taken from the Warspotting website.
05:58So, this decrease in material losses isn't simply because the Russians have become better or more
06:03effective. It's simply that they place no value on the lives of their men, and they no longer have
06:07equipment, so they send them into combat despite the lack of suitable equipment. The second observation
06:13we can make here is the variety of equipment that is being destroyed. Last year, you can see the different
06:17colors. At that time, over 300 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed. In contrast,
06:24in the last three months of 2026, that number has dropped to a third, and there are now almost only
06:30military transport vehicles left, which now alone account for half of the losses. So overall, since 2022,
06:36Russia has lost more than 24,000 pieces of military equipment, just based on what can be documented from
06:41open sources. And here, for example, these are images shared by the Russians themselves of their
06:46own convoys. Destroyed armored vehicles that are passing by as they are heading to the front line,
06:50but now the rate of losses on the Russian side is only a few units per month. On the other
06:55hand,
06:55there is one area where losses are increasing, and that's in Russian logistics. For example, here you
07:00have the statistics for the destruction of logistics vehicles and fuel trucks, with now 2,500 destroyed
07:06each week and an almost exponential curve. I'll explain that to you in just a moment, because
07:11it's a real strategic objective on Ukraine's part. And on Ukraine's side, their material losses are
07:16actually the opposite. Since they've been on the defensive for almost three years, while they
07:21haven't really changed their methods and their losses remain stable at around seven pieces of military
07:26equipment lost per day, these losses are mostly offset by new equipment from allies and increased local
07:32production, now at an all-time high. And so, statistically, the ratio is becoming unfavorable.
07:38And for the first time, we're starting to see more Ukrainian equipment destroyed than Russian equipment.
07:44But it's a misleading statistic, and Russian propaganda is using it to pretend that they're
07:48dominating and that the Ukrainians are losing more equipment. No, it's just that the Russians are
07:53losing lives instead of equipment, simply because they have more of it today. Now, if we take a look
08:02that are going to be really important, first, the Ukrainian effort in destroying Russian air
08:06defenses is paying off, with an increase in the destruction of systems, panzer units, S-300, S-400,
08:12and Buk systems, all along the front. There are really a lot of them, and many are even geolocated,
08:18as you can see on this map. As these systems are increasingly destroyed at the front, Russia is
08:23also withdrawing them to protect its cities from more frequent attacks. So the situation on the front is
08:29becoming more and more permissive, more and more open for drones, cruise missiles, helicopters,
08:34and even for Ukrainian fighter jets, which can get closer and closer to the Russian lines to bomb
08:40them. And so we have a lot, a lot of long-range Ukrainian drones that are helped by Starlink and
08:45by ways to bypass Russian electronic warfare, resulting in this strike capability with video feed that is
08:51becoming more and more common all along the front. For example, here we are in the city of Mariupol,
08:56which is $160 from the front, and you can see the quality of the video feed as well as the
09:01state of
09:01the city, by the way. And the Ukrainians are able to patrol the entire southern front in this way,
09:06with a clear objective, which is to cut off logistics to the occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia,
09:11Kherson, and the Dnipro Oblast. But also the goal is to completely isolate Crimea,
09:16and in this area. Let's say it's relatively simpler, since the entire Russian front basically relies on,
09:22on just one major highway and a railway line. And so on this railway, well, the locomotives
09:27and trains are regularly attacked. And on the highway, there are so many attacks that it is
09:31now nicknamed by the Russians as the Highway of Death. And the Ukrainians share more than 40 pieces
09:36of evidence of truck destruction every day. With more than 800 successful strikes on Russian
09:41logistics in the area over the past two months, to the point that drivers no longer want to take
09:46these routes, which has caused a 70% decrease in truck traffic on this road. And you can even
09:51notice that even when the Ukrainians use simple FPV kamikaze drones, well, the video feed is
09:56absolutely perfect for the Ukrainian pilots, even on vehicles that are equipped with jammers,
10:00like in these images. Which is once again proof of the effectiveness of Ukrainian resilience and
10:05resistance measures against electronic warfare, since they can't have fiber optic drones in the area.
10:10But still, most of these attacks in the area are carried out with small planes,
10:14as you can see in these images. So at the same time, the Ukrainians will also directly target
10:19the logistical routes, and not just the trucks that travel on them. A large proportion of the
10:24bridges on secondary routes have been destroyed, with increasingly heavy Ukrainian bombardments,
10:29using heavy drones, missiles, or glide bombs that strike farther and farther,
10:34since the Ukrainian Air Force can strike and get closer and closer to the front. The Russians are
10:39attempting to restore supply routes by ship, but Ukrainians often destroy cargo ships in the Black
10:44Sea and Sea of Ozov. What about the last route to supply the southern front? Well, obviously it was
10:49to go through Crimea, except that the famous Crimean Bridge can't operate at full capacity,
10:53because it has been damaged several times. And as a result, there will be restrictions on the
10:58heaviest vehicles that can't cross. There are also restrictions on trucks carrying fuel,
11:03which could catch fire if they were hit, or if they exploded once they were on the bridge.
11:07And then, every vehicle that has to cross is searched for hours and hours, which causes a
11:13significant slowdown in the flow. And here, for example, you can see the line to cross the bridge
11:18to leave Crimea. And then, regarding the railway line on the Crimean Bridge, the traffic for its part
11:23is said to have dropped from several hundred crossings per day to only a few dozen, especially after the
11:28Ukrainian underwater drone attack in June 2025, which reportedly weakened the bridge's structure.
11:33And to top it off, the railway meant to supply occupied southern Ukraine will be destroyed
11:39by Ukrainians. Meanwhile, the special train loaded with equipment to repair the tracks was
11:43also destroyed as it was arriving in the area. In short, as you can see, the Ukrainian objective
11:48is really to completely cut off Crimea. They attacked bridges and keep destroying the replacement pontoons.
11:55They then attack the vehicles that cross these pontoons to make it as difficult as possible to repair
12:00them. Bringing in vehicles heavy enough to remove these trucks is making it increasingly difficult
12:06for the Russians to continue their efforts in the area, to the point that they had to abandon certain
12:10areas I mentioned to you, like the Kinsborn Peninsula, where they were being fired upon by the Ukrainians
12:15who were on the other side of a river without being able to respond. And in the Kherson area,
12:20the Russians are still striking, but the Ukrainians clearly say that the amount of Russian fire has
12:24decreased, especially when it comes to artillery, which is the most expensive in terms of logistics.
12:28And the Russians have even imposed fuel rations on civilians and businesses,
12:33even reducing bus services due to a lack of fuel with the goal of saving fuel for the army.
12:38And what's the consequence of all these Ukrainian efforts on Russian logistics?
12:42Well, it's simply that Russia no longer has the means to really support its front.
12:46And it's in this area that the Ukrainians have managed to liberate up to 400 kilometers of territory
12:51since the beginning of the year, freeing 400 square kilometers in the Dnipro region,
12:55and another 80 kilometers in the Zaporizhzhia region. The chief of staff of the Ukrainian army
13:00announced they liberated 600 square kilometers in the area. But according to the open source evidence
13:05we have, it's 480 square kilometers since the beginning of the year. Let's be clear, the Russians
13:11keep trying, continuing offensives instead of just defending. We've even seen mechanized assaults in the
13:17area. But it's clearly the area where they are struggling the most, and further south in occupied Crimea.
13:23There, Ukraine almost has free reign there, with strikes on all the infrastructures used by the
13:28Russian army. Roads are cut off, and there's a total fuel shortage. The Russian population settled
13:33there since 2014 now trying to flee. And let's also point out that the Bayraktar TB2 drones are
13:39still carrying out their patrol missions in the Black Sea, where they are destroying Russian boats,
13:44with the Russian fleet now more confined than ever to the port trying to stay sheltered. If we look now
13:50at
13:50the eastern front in the Donetsk area, which is clearly Russia's main effort, since their strategic
13:56objective is to finish conquering Donetsk so they can say they've taken all of the Donbass. Given the
14:02territorial continuity between Russia and this front, it's much harder for Ukrainians to destroy
14:08logistics since there are always secondary roads. Even though Ukrainians are clearly targeting logistics
14:14and Russian storage sites in the area as much as possible, well, the front continues to be supplied,
14:19so Russia keeps up its pressure. For example, in the Pokrovsk area, where the assaults continue,
14:24with soldiers who are sent in very small groups, but who are met by FPVs. And in this single video,
14:30for example, from May 9th, there are 122 Russians who are killed in this way. And the Ukrainians have
14:35also developed a lot of ground robots for all kinds of missions. Because Ukraine wants to replace a
14:40quarter of the men holding the front line with robots. So we're really talking about tens of
14:45thousands of robots, including now ground robots, heavy kamikaze ground robots, like this device
14:51that carries 300 kilos of explosives and goes all the way into Russian shelters to kill everyone
14:56inside the building. Obviously, these are environments that aren't accessible with traditional FPVs.
15:00But in any case, and despite the losses, the Russians are still making progress through small
15:05successive infiltrations. Because once again, they aren't able to carry out large-scale mechanized
15:10assaults and break through this front. And so they continue to make progress, even if it's the
15:15slowest progress in more than three years. Three years, especially because the Ukrainians have gained
15:20the upper hand in the field of drones since February, both in terms of volume and technical quality.
15:26And Russia's main advantage remains their glide bombs. For example, here you see a map provided by
15:31Clement Mola. But overall, the effectiveness of these bombs is reduced with the widespread use
15:35of electronic warfare. So we see a decrease in the accuracy of these Russian glide bombs.
15:40They still fire many, and several must hit the target. However, you can see compilations of glide
15:46bombs falling in fields or trees instead of falling on Ukrainian positions or on the targeted buildings.
15:52And the craziest thing is that these are images shared by the Russians themselves.
15:56Now, on their side, the Ukrainians are also ramping up in the field of glide bombs. Until now,
16:00they were using American JDAMs and French AASM bombs, but they too are starting to move toward
16:06the mass production of their own domestic glide bombs. We can assume they'll become increasingly
16:11effective in this area over time, even though the Russians are still far ahead in quantity,
16:16with thousands of bombs being dropped every month. In any case, in the Donetsk Oblast and on the Luhansk
16:22front, the fortress cities continue to slow down the Russians, just like Chhasev-Yar, which was the city
16:27right after Bakhmut, or Yampil, where I went in the summer of 2024 or even Kupiansk,
16:33which has already been liberated twice. People have predicted the fall of these cities for over
16:37two years, and here you see the ruins of Chhasev-Yar as an example. To clarify, these cities could fall
16:43in
16:44a month or a year, and once they fall, the Russians advance a little faster. For example,
16:49if we look at the Pokrovsk front, the city fell last February, and yet the Russians have only
16:54advanced four kilometers beyond that, so you shouldn't imagine that there's a collapse where
16:59it opens the door and suddenly everything will come rushing through behind. The front is solid,
17:04the front has incredibly effective defenses behind it. Here you can see some images. The next city
17:09threatened in the Donetsk region? I would say it's Konstantinivka, which is turning into a gray zone,
17:14and like all the other Russian captures since 2023. They will simply conquer a pile of ruins
17:19emptied of its inhabitants at a human cost that will be exorbitant. But you really shouldn't be
17:24impressed by Russian announcements, Russian storytelling, their narrative, claiming that
17:29they are advancing. Because every day they announce the capture of an unimportant village,
17:34sometimes even a completely secondary one. Sometimes they even announce and invent victories that don't
17:39exist. For example, they announced the capture of a city in the Kharkiv oblast. But analysis of the
17:44images proved that these images you're seeing actually show something else, a city that's more
17:48than eight kilometers from the front and had already been captured several years ago. So you really have
17:53to distance yourself from what Russia is saying. They lie every day. They're advancing at the slowest pace
17:58in over three years, just a few square kilometers per month. It's really very, very limited. But obviously,
18:03they keep moving forward. And they're going to use every city and village they're taking to make
18:08announcements. They've pushed the narrative that victory is near and we should stop supporting
18:12Ukrainians since the war began, but it's becoming less effective. So, to conclude on the Russian
18:18strategic objective of taking the hold on, boss, you should know that from 2022 to the end of 2025,
18:25Russia has conquered 12,908 square kilometers in the Donetsk oblast. But this pace is gradually slowing
18:31down. And knowing that in the first six months of the year, the Russians advanced by less than 500
18:37square kilometers in the most optimistic estimates for them, knowing that there are still 4,000 square
18:43kilometers of Donetsk of the Donetsk oblast that are still free, including the main cities like
18:49Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. We know very well that it will still take years and years of effort and that
18:54in any case, structurally, their speed is slowing down and they are facing defenses that are increasingly
18:59stronger. So they simply can't wait for years at this pace to be able to achieve their only strategic
19:05objective, which was to conquer the Donbass. So today, we simply have to wait for the Russians
19:11to open their eyes to their own incapacity, especially since there is another area that
19:16is structural that is fundamental. After the strikes on logistics, it's long-range warfare,
19:21in which the Ukrainians have had the advantage since February. So overall, the Russians fire between
19:265,000 and 8,000 long-range drones each month, with a noticeable drop in volume in June,
19:31while Ukrainian production continues to increase. With 9,000 confirmed launches in May and 11,000 in
19:37June, that's now 350 long-range launches per day with real swarm attacks, as you can see in these
19:43images. And these numbers are actually consistent with Russian estimates, since they themselves
19:48announced having intercepted 9,000 Ukrainian long-range drones in May. And roughly speaking,
19:54Ukraine has been launching more than Russia since February, so now we'll have to see if the Russian
19:59decrease is structural. For example, if they carried out work at a factory and production ramps up
20:03faster, or if it's only temporary, such as when supply factories are destroyed. Or that since they
20:08can no longer obtain Western technologies through the indirect means they used until now, for example,
20:14by going through the United Arab Emirates, who were not very happy to see that some of the spare parts
20:19they helped Russia acquire to bypass sanctions ended up in Iranian drones that the Emirates themselves had
20:24suffered on their own territory. And so, there are certain ways to bypass sanctions that have been
20:29closed off for the Russians. This obviously makes supply more difficult, because it has to be said,
20:34even today. In the Kh-Kochstan missiles, which are fired by Russia and were produced in 2026,
20:40there are still more than 200 components of Western origin, which are, well, because there is Turkey,
20:46the Emirates, and Kazakhstan that help Russia bypass the sanctions. So, the fewer countries there are that
20:51turn a blind eye to sanctioned circumvention, the more difficulties Russia will have producing.
20:56And I think we're reaching a turning point now. And so, there is a fourfold advantage for the
21:00Ukrainians in this long-distance war. First, with the volumes, I just mentioned it,
21:05they are firing more than the Russians. Then, the Ukrainians have a lower cost per hit. The Russians
21:10lack interceptors as effective as those developed by the Ukrainians. In fact, no one in the world has a
21:17system as effective as theirs. That's why we suffered losses in the Middle East, because the
21:22Americans and their allies in the Gulf were not able to intercept the Iranian Shahids. Ukrainians
21:27helped these countries defend themselves, similar to how Gulf countries were unprepared against Iranian
21:33Shahids. Well, the Russians don't know how to defend themselves against the long-range Ukrainian drones,
21:38either. And then, let's also add that we're now discovering that some Russian air defense missiles
21:42are simply unable to tell the difference between a fire on the ground and a drone flying in the air.
21:47So, for example, that's a big explosion in Moscow. It was actually a Russian air defense missile that
21:53hit horizontally that struck this silo to make it explode. And that's when you understand the importance
22:00of having MANPADS that combine infrared sensors and ultraviolet sensors with digital signal processing
22:06that allows you to see whether it's a moving target, like a missile, a helicopter, or a drone.
22:11Rather than having dumb systems like the Russian way that just detect heat, go toward the heat,
22:16and in the end, can't defend themselves. When there are already fires around them, you can't really
22:21complain about it. Is that also what explains the difference with the new generation American
22:25stingers or French Mistral, which let you systematically hit the target? And their systems,
22:31incidentally, are highly faulty, including the famous S-400. The images you see here, that's an S-400.
22:37So, the most expensive and supposedly most effective system of the Russian army, which tries to
22:42intercept the incoming weapons directed at it and fails. Or the panzer systems, which aren't able
22:47to stop Ukrainian drones even though they're positioned all around Moscow. Here you can see
22:52the map of the locations that surround the city of Moscow like this. And despite these three levels of
22:56protection, more and more Ukrainian drones are still getting through, even reaching the heart of Moscow.
23:01And then, the third, uh, the third advantage for the Ukrainians in this long-range war is the
23:07ever-growing range of systems they have at their disposal. First, they have long-range drones and
23:12missiles that can be produced in large quantities, since they don't rely on critical components,
23:17as is the case for Russian systems, or for us, simply because they use much simpler, much lighter systems.
23:22This is modern warfare, as I described to you in the video when I visited. The factories of the company
23:27Firepoint, which produces those famous FP-1 drones and also the Flamingo cruise missile.
23:32But in addition, you have the new systems that are coming in. American cruise missiles that are
23:37launched directly by aircraft. New drones that can reach up to 3,500 kilometers in range. And of course,
23:44the arrival of the FP-9 ballistic missiles, which can carry several hundred kilos over more than 800
23:49kilometers, and that reach 5,000 kilometers per hour. Given how difficult it already is for the Russians
23:55to intercept small drones, I really think it's going to be very complicated for them with the
24:00ballistic missiles. And another important point as well is to see how effective the Ukrainians have
24:05been in targeting all the Russian production facilities for cruise missiles, ballistic missiles,
24:10and drones. For example, here it's the Voronezh Semiconductor Factory that was destroyed on June 22.
24:16Here is another example, with two Flamingos that will successively strike the Volgograd Arms Factory.
24:21And as for the Flamingo, people made fun of its size, saying it was big and would be easy to
24:25intercept.
24:26We can see how accurately it hits the target, or here again against this ballistic missile factory.
24:31And it should be remembered that these large missiles, whether cruise missiles or ballistic missiles,
24:36are essential for striking certain Russian infrastructures. Because when you have radars,
24:41aircraft, things that are light and out in the open, you can use drones, especially on refineries.
24:47But on the other hand, to hit hardened buildings, you need cruise missiles. And that's why this
24:53complementarity between the different delivery systems is perfectly suitable. When you need
24:57to destroy bridges or hit unprotected infrastructure, you need heavier weapons. And there, the Ukrainians
25:04have their own ecosystem, which is huge, much more efficient, once again, because even the Ukrainians
25:10had historic companies like Antonov and so on. Well, these are small companies, much more modern,
25:15that are able to supply this quantity much more efficiently. And the Russians have stuck to
25:19traditional methods, a bit like us. With productions that haven't yet scaled up, even though they're
25:25clearly producing much more than we are, they haven't scaled up. They haven't gone through the
25:29industrial revolutions like the Ukrainians have managed to do over the past four years. Next, there's
25:35the fourth element of Ukrainian superiority in the field of long-distance warfare. It's simply the types of
25:41targets. The Russians have gigantic cathedral-like factories, known to everyone, with satellite
25:47photos that make them visible. And so, when one of them finally goes down, the supply will stop.
25:52While the Ukrainians, forced by circumstances since 2022, they have developed their ultra-resilient
25:58defense industry, with dozens of tiny microscopic factories, each of them completely independent,
26:04not relying on each other. And even if the Russians manage to hit one or two of them, which is
26:08the case,
26:09for example, with General Sherry drones, one of whose factories was hit. Well, 90 percent of the
26:14production continued completely normally, whereas for the Russians, when their fiber-optic factory was
26:19destroyed, that was it. It was over. So, from then on, they relied entirely on the Chinese, and the
26:25Chinese tripled their prices. Please refer to this map to see the various sites that were hit in Russia,
26:30with a French-speaking account that is specifically dedicated to proven successful Ukrainian strikes deep
26:36inside Russia. So, when it comes to Ukrainian air defense against Russian attacks, the Ukrainian
26:43defense is very effective, certainly today the best in the world. They intercept 90 percent of
26:49Shahed drones and cruise missiles by using various methods, like hitting Shahed drones with small
26:54interceptor drones. I've discussed this for a long time. There, for example, you can see an interception
27:00from the outside, and now you also have interceptions being done with drones that are 100 percent autonomous,
27:07using artificial intelligence. Then, on the cruise missile side, obviously, they destroy them with
27:12cannons, with fighter jets, or with manpads or laser-guided rockets, which allow them to destroy
27:17them at a lower cost. And even if we consider that 90 percent interceptions is very good, it still means
27:23that when 6,000 Russian drones are launched, if 10 percent get through, well, that's still 600. Which are going
27:29to hit their targets, so the Ukrainians are very good, but it's still not enough. And their real
27:34difficulty is obviously against hypersonic missiles like Kinzhal, Zircon, and so on, or with ballistic
27:40missiles that come in very, very fast and at very, very high altitude. For these two vector types, the
27:45Russians get through easily. So, of course, there are some nodes that are protected. Here you can see an
27:50interception by a Patriot missile against a Russian ballistic missile. So, when we provide the necessary
27:55equipment, the Ukrainians are able to protect themselves, but we are not providing them with
28:00enough to intercept all these threats. Whereas, technologically, we would be able to do it and
28:04inflict major damage. Since the Russians have the bad idea to stop targeting military infrastructure,
28:10to focus more on ideological targets, churches, sites of power that have no military value,
28:16and the fact that the Kyiv water treatment plants are dysfunctional hasn't changed the situation on the
28:22battlefield, on the front. So, it's really a terrorist war against the Ukrainian population.
28:27So now, let's take a step back and have a strategic overview. Today, the general tone is very positive
28:33about Ukraine, but we shouldn't get carried away. Yes, we're in a very positive momentum,
28:38but above all, we're seeing the result of all these efforts. And it's the combination of these three
28:42elements that I mentioned on the channel, and we can now see them coming together and producing
28:47operational results. Because, I repeat, the war will not be won on the battlefield. The Russians
28:52will never conquer the Donbass, and the Ukrainians will never be able to liberate their territory on
28:57a large scale. I don't see the Russian army collapsing. It's struggling and facing difficulties.
29:03But even when 400 Kiloby-2 are liberated, it hardly changes the situation. The breakthroughs at Trest remain
29:09very limited. I hope the Ukrainians will liberate their territory, but I don't see how they could free the
29:15entire south. If the Russians dig in instead of sending more assault waves, it becomes much harder.
29:21The Ukrainians won't be able to retake territory either, even though today they still have a
29:26maneuvering force that could allow for a strategic surprise in certain areas. But overall, we shouldn't
29:30imagine that they could completely liberate, for example, the south or totally cut off the logistical
29:35routes to the south. I think that's out of reach for now. So the Ukrainians, they have four strategic
29:40objectives. First, it's to make sure that Russia is no longer able to advance on the ground. And that's
29:45where we are now. Next, that the Russian defense industry is no longer able to provide the necessary
29:49equipment to its army. And that's starting to be the case in a number of sectors. Next, the Russian
29:54economy can no longer support the war effort. And here we have to be clear, if Donald Trump hadn't
30:00attacked Iran, and if the price of oil hadn't doubled, Russia wouldn't have gotten this breath
30:04of fresh air. And we would have reached a point much sooner where, economically, Russia was no longer
30:09able to hold on. And the fourth element is morale, the morale of the population. Russian public opinion
30:15now recognizes difficulties, faces constraints, and is experiencing fuel shortages nationwide.
30:21And it inevitably realizes that there's no point in carrying on like this, enduring all of this,
30:26and taking so many losses without even being able to make any progress. When Russia is not making
30:31progress on Ukrainian territory, is suffering losses, and its economy is collapsing. With heavy,
30:36critical infrastructure being destroyed every day, the infrastructure of gas terminals, oil
30:42terminals, refineries, and large factories. People have to realize it at some point. The goal is to
30:49force Putin to open his eyes. Either he negotiates and makes peace now, or he waits. And it will be
30:56even worse. And he will be in an even worse position to sit at the negotiating table. So it's a
31:02race
31:02against time. The Ukrainians need to get a ceasefire, a peace agreement, before next winter to avoid a
31:09fifth winter of cold and suffering. And that's why today they're accelerating on all fronts. And the
31:14collapse of logistics, as we're seeing now, will accelerate. In the south, the strikes deep into enemy
31:20territory. The Ukrainian-style sanctions will continue to accelerate. And that's something I've seen in all
31:25the indicators and in videos that are coming out. I've promised you before, and officials in charge of
31:30long-range strikes confirm to me there are more and more of them. They're really gaining expertise
31:35in this field. So all the elements are in place today for us to finally achieve a ceasefire and
31:41peace in Ukraine. Knowing that Donald Trump is now on the side of the Ukrainians, that's still a big
31:46change compared to what we saw a few months ago. And he himself says that the Ukrainians need to be
31:52able
31:52to strike more to force Russia back to the negotiating table. Today, everyone agrees except Putin,
31:58who still needs convincing, and we know this is the final stretch. I also want to thank you for
32:04showing up in such large numbers and for your donations. You know that everything you've done
32:08today continues to help provide and buy equipment. In particular, the Rubajay Brigade receives a Baba Yaga
32:15every month. Thanks to you and Team Berlioz's fundraising, dozens of vehicles have been purchased,
32:20personal protective gear for fighters, thermal systems, electrical systems, and on the civilian side to save lives.
32:26There is also now the 13th StaffNet, the medical container that was delivered thanks to your
32:31donations. This was done with the Association Act together for Ukraine. We have vehicles, ambulances,
32:37some of which I personally delivered. So your donations continue to reach people on the ground
32:41and save lives. There you go. I hope you liked this video. Next quarter, I hope we can say we're
32:47closer to peace. See you in September or October. See you very soon.
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