- 2 days ago
- #ukraine
- #technology
- #defense
- #europe
How do attacks on power infrastructure, satellite warnings, and Starlink shape Ukraine’s defense? Get a clear-eyed look at the technology, the risks of relying on allies, and why European sovereignty matters.
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Comment what you liked most about the video. #Ukraine #Technology #Defense #Europe
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@xaviertytelman
0:00 - Missile Strikes and Early Warning
3:09 - Detection Failures and Satellite Sovereignty
5:07 - Starlink’s Battlefield Role and Vulnerabilities
9:10 - Dependence on American Military Systems
12:00 - Sanctions, Oil Revenue, and Pressure on Ukraine
14:31 - Europe’s Defense Sovereignty
15:43 - Ukraine’s Resilience and Continued Support
We are now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/6KW2Zo9GU39VZSvv2zIpxM
Subscribe to the channel for more explainers.
Comment what you liked most about the video. #Ukraine #Technology #Defense #Europe
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@xaviertytelman
0:00 - Missile Strikes and Early Warning
3:09 - Detection Failures and Satellite Sovereignty
5:07 - Starlink’s Battlefield Role and Vulnerabilities
9:10 - Dependence on American Military Systems
12:00 - Sanctions, Oil Revenue, and Pressure on Ukraine
14:31 - Europe’s Defense Sovereignty
15:43 - Ukraine’s Resilience and Continued Support
We are now available on Spotify! Listen now https://open.spotify.com/show/6KW2Zo9GU39VZSvv2zIpxM
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NewsTranscript
00:00The Russian army targeted the three main thermal power plants in the Ukrainian capital.
00:05Russia also targeted critical infrastructure in the Kyiv region that provides power to the capital.
00:12That had already happened during previous winters, but right now they are truly breaking the city's entire energy system.
00:18Yes, unfortunately, it's a cumulative effect.
00:21Russia has been attacking Ukraine's power infrastructure for four and a half years,
00:24and gradually the defenses have become less and less effective.
00:27In this case, we're talking about interception systems for ballistic missiles, which are the most difficult to intercept.
00:32These are the only pieces of equipment for which the Ukrainians are not self-sufficient and have to rely on
00:38their allies.
00:38They have to rely on their allies in two ways, for the equipment and interceptor missiles, but also to get
00:43advanced warning.
00:44Let's go into detail with you, Xavier Tittelman.
00:46The geostationary satellites whose models we're about to see, how does it work?
00:51And as it happens, how is it no longer working for the Ukrainians tonight?
00:54Well, to warn, to spot the launch of a ballistic missile, whether it's a small missile or a nuclear one,
01:00there are surveillance satellites that constantly monitor heat signatures.
01:03A heat signature could be a fire.
01:06In real time, we can see fires all over the world on sites like firms.
01:10It allows us to see explosions even on the Ukrainian front,
01:12and that makes it possible to detect a ballistic missile that is launched.
01:16From the moment the ballistic missile is launched, information is given to the surrounding areas,
01:21to countries in the region, and especially here, to Ukraine.
01:24And Ukraine will be able to activate its radars.
01:27As a reminder, if the Ukrainians activated their radars and left them running continuously,
01:31the Russians would eventually triangulate them,
01:32because they detect those waves, and that reveals their location.
01:35And so they would destroy them.
01:37So, the Ukrainians only turn on their surveillance radars and French systems,
01:42like the GF-300, right when the Americans warn them, and it's a matter of a few seconds.
01:47Sometimes, under specific weather conditions, when the missile launches, the heat is down below.
01:52And if the clouds are relatively high, that heat won't be visible.
01:56But two days in a row, having blind spots, even though from a weather standpoint,
02:00theoretically those aren't conditions that would hide that heat signature,
02:03that's really what makes the Ukrainians think,
02:06that the Americans simply decided to stop passing the intel to them.
02:09So, I'm doing a quick analysis of the failure rate of the American detection system.
02:14First, we need to know under what conditions failures can occur.
02:17The first one is weather conditions.
02:19Since the missiles take off and emit a lot of heat, obviously,
02:23while on the ground, when you have very high cloud cover,
02:26at that point, you might not necessarily be able to see the missiles taking off.
02:30In this case, these Iskander missiles,
02:32when they ignite their boosters, will continue to emit heat up to an altitude of 12 to 15 kilometers.
02:37So, if you have, for instance,
02:39kumulon bus clouds rising even higher, it can conceal them.
02:43The second possibility is when the Russians use S-400 type air defense systems to strike Ukraine.
02:49In that context, Russian air defense systems can be misidentified
02:53because they are being used as missiles used to carry out strikes.
02:58So, as for the track record of failures in the American detection system,
03:01there really aren't that many.
03:03Plus, you'll get a great deal.
03:06Right now.
03:09There really aren't that many.
03:11There's one in early 2026, and that's when American satellites were all focused on Iran
03:16to keep tabs on the situation right when the United States had started bombing the country.
03:21The second case was in July 2026, and right around that time,
03:25it was S-400 missiles that were used.
03:27And right now, we have several cases in a row, just a day apart, that are hard to explain.
03:33And given the high success rate that had been observed up until now.
03:38But what's most interesting is that we have the weather information.
03:41What you see on the screen right now is the weather condition at the Bryansk airport,
03:45which is the area from which the Russian ballistic missile was launched.
03:48And we also have the EmetView website, which lets us know the altitude of the cloud tops.
03:53And we can see that in the Bryansk area, it was around 4,000 to 5,000 meters in altitude.
03:58So that means the missile engines continued to emit heat for at least 10 kilometers above the clouds.
04:03Logically, there was plenty of time to detect this missile,
04:06and therefore provide the information to the Ukrainians.
04:09And here, we're talking about information arriving within a few seconds.
04:13So the American technical excuse, of course, is still possible.
04:16But in this case, the weather excuse doesn't hold up.
04:21And then the succession of events a day apart, where you have missiles passing through.
04:25Obviously, it's very complicated, very hard to believe the Americans are acting in good faith here.
04:31Tonight, we see once again the importance of sovereignty.
04:34As a sovereignist yourself, Xavier Leitelman, the United States on one side, Russia, China,
04:38these superpowers truly have their own vision, their own satellites.
04:42They rely on no one.
04:43Here, we're really talking about satellites that aren't spy satellites, but heat detection satellites.
04:47We launched an experimental one in 2019, and the Germans launched one in 2023.
04:52And the goal is to deploy our own satellite, our French-German-European constellation,
04:57which will only be operational in 2030.
05:00So this capability we lack today, unfortunately, we won't have it for another three or four years.
05:04And that's the one that Ukraine actually needs right now, immediately.
05:08Starlink, which plays such an important role.
05:10Starlink has provided invaluable support to the Ukrainians, but it can also, in a way, turn against them today.
05:16Look at the Starlink module right there.
05:17Explain to us how this thing works.
05:19Well, it's a simple modem that will detect its position.
05:23And depending on its position, it will send out very tightly focused beams, a bit like laser beams,
05:28to pick up the satellites around it.
05:29And that allows you to get an internet connection deep in the desert, deep in Ukraine, pretty much anywhere.
05:35This system is used to connect all the soldiers on the battlefield,
05:38to get information, feedback, for example, a clear picture of drone activity.
05:43Ground robots are piloted this way, naval drones are piloted this way, and aerial drones as well.
05:48And what has emerged over the last 24 hours, 48 hours, is that drones that move,
05:53and therefore Starlink terminals moving faster than 100 kilometers, 100 kilometers,
05:57per hour-hour are deactivated, stop working.
05:59Which means that for the Ukrainians, there are indeed certain strikes that will no longer be possible,
06:05especially, well, strikes on Russian logistics.
06:07But there are also the interceptors.
06:09Earlier, we were talking about the jet-powered Dharans, the jet missiles, the Shaheds.
06:13Well, some of them are intercepted by Ukrainian interceptors that fly,
06:17and are controlled via Starlink, because it allows them to operate tens of kilometers away from the pilot.
06:24And so unfortunately, that means more Russian missiles will get through,
06:27because the Ukrainians no longer have Starlink working on their interceptor drones.
06:30And there is a second difficulty that the Ukrainians will face with the Starlink networks,
06:34which is the drop in bandwidth.
06:36They fly slower.
06:37Well, at any rate, they no longer allow the terminals to fly at the speed of an interceptor.
06:40But in addition, the network quality is significantly reduced.
06:43That is to say, instead of watching a video in HD format,
06:46it's going to be at a resolution of 144p, so you can't see anything anymore.
06:49And that means when the Ukrainians have, for example, a drone doing reconnaissance,
06:53spotting the Russians coming from 25 kilometers away, well,
06:56now their resolution quality is so poor that they won't even see them coming anymore.
07:00And so it no longer allows them to anticipate, for instance,
07:03the attacks that the Russians are going to launch.
07:05In the same way, Russian missiles are also detected by Ukrainian drones
07:09that fly at a bit of an altitude and spot the heat signature incoming.
07:13Well, if you have reduced resolution, that's a problem for the operational effectiveness of
07:18the Ukrainian army on the front line on the offensive side, as we discussed,
07:22but also on the defensive side to spot Russian attacks.
07:24It's understood that in this war, Musk has greatly helped the Ukrainians,
07:29credit where credit is due from the Ukrainians' point of view.
07:32But here, he's also a tool being used against them, if it's quite simply...
07:35Especially since the Ukrainians paid... I mean, it's not free.
07:39The Americans are doing business, and Musk is the first among them.
07:41So it was paid for. And we see that despite the fact...
07:43That it's a private enterprise.
07:45And yes, that Ukraine... How should I put it?
07:47Their bills in full and on time, they were extremely careful.
07:49The Ukrainians absolutely need to have this system, especially since this system isn't given,
07:54not sold to the Russians. So in fact, it's an exclusive proprietary system, as they say.
07:58And I saw how much the Russians were penalized a few weeks or months ago.
08:00And it's back in February. For me, once again...
08:02When Musk said, I'm no longer helping the Russians, they paid a very high price for it.
08:08It should even be pointed out, Starlink is more expensive in Ukraine than if you go buy it in
08:11Poland or any surrounding country. So it's lucrative business for the Americans.
08:15They're making a tremendous amount of money.
08:16We see how much everything always comes back to the United States, because this money comes from Europe,
08:19let's be honest. It's the Europeans who are helping Ukraine pay.
08:21Poland also pays an enormous amount.
08:23But it is indeed the member states of the European Union that are paying.
08:26And in fact, well, all of that ends up going back to the United States.
08:29In the end, that's one of your big theories. They're raking it in.
08:31They're doing everything they can. And unfortunately today,
08:33we have the one-way butylsat ecosystem being deployed,
08:35but we only have 600 satellites when the Americans have 11,000.
08:39So there too, by 2030, we will be sovereign. We won't depend on them anymore.
08:42But today, yes, Elon Musk had the ability in the past to support Ukraine.
08:45That was at the beginning of 2022. And he has already cut Starlink twice on his own without
08:51asking the US military command. The first time was when there were
08:55Ukrainian naval drones heading straight for the Black Sea Fleet. And Musk says it himself,
09:00it was going to be a Pearl Harbor for the Russian military, for the Russian Navy. And he prevented
09:05that Pearl Harbor. But that costs lives because those Russian ships bombard the Ukrainians every
09:09single day. These are dizzying times. Earlier, you were one of the first to sound the alarm,
09:13explaining, for example, that with the F-35 sold to Europe, the Americans, in the same way,
09:18if they wanted to, could tell the Danes, the Poles, the Belgians, we cut you off.
09:23In other words, we won't renew the software. We won't update it. And so, goodbye.
09:27Unfortunately, European sovereignty ends when we buy American. And for all European countries,
09:32from Germany to the Netherlands, the Americans can choose to downgrade the performance of their F-35s.
09:36That is to say, when you're forced, at least once a month, to connect to the American
09:40server to upload information that they then sell back to you. It's pretty brilliant too. And this
09:45information. And when you run your mission, you're a mission planner, which was my job when I was in
09:49the Navy on the Rafale. Well, the Americans are the ones who decide your radar performance
09:53and your electronic warfare library. You are discovering an incredible
09:56vassalage, meaning that if a war broke out tomorrow, the Americans could lay down the law
10:00to the Germans, the Danes, to all these nations massively buying American because they could say,
10:04if you don't obey us, your planes won't fly anymore.
10:06There is, yes, on one hand. But it's even worse than that. We are unable to communicate. A French
10:11plane wouldn't be able to talk with an American or German or British plane if the CIA doesn't provide
10:16an encryption key for the tactical data link, which is called Link 16. That is to say, only France thought
10:22we should create something without relying on Link 16. It's called radio contact. And since we are the
10:27only ones who want sovereignty, no one else has adopted another means of communication.
10:31We are completely at the mercy of the Americans. So here, I really want to emphasize one point.
10:36This American withdrawal, if it is confirmed, and unfortunately we are seeing it happen,
10:40it's not simply I'm pulling out. It really means stripping away from the Ukrainians, the ecosystem,
10:46the backbone on which they forced the Ukrainians to operate. Let me remind you that Elon Musk had said,
10:51I'm giving you all the capabilities so that Starlink would now be the core system used by all Ukrainian
10:56soldiers because he wanted to prove the effectiveness of his system so it would be adopted by other
11:01militaries all around the world, especially the Starship network, which is the same Starlink network
11:05in terms of satellites, but with secure encrypted systems so that the Americans couldn't monitor
11:10those who were going to use it. So he pushed the Ukrainians as much as possible to use Starlink.
11:16And when it's taken away from them, well, obviously you have the communications ecosystem, command
11:21centers, interceptors, ground robots, naval drones, all of that will be, will lose its ability to use Starlink.
11:29Next, the second point, Donald Trump threatens to halt the delivery of equipment due to arrive
11:34in Ukraine, which has been funded by you, by NATO, by taxpayers to defend Ukraine, such as interception
11:40systems like Patriot missiles, but which have already been paid for. In other words, here, for the second time,
11:46after redirecting what was supplied to Ukraine, to send it to the Middle East, to Israel, and to be
11:52able to bomb Iran, well, the Americans are threatening once again to stop providing interception systems
11:58to Ukraine. And the third problem, of course, is that we have this lifting of sanctions. First,
12:04the oil purchases by the United States. It's worth remembering that the United States is an exporter
12:09of diesel. They don't like diesel. There's no diesel shortage in the United States. And American
12:14analysts, economists, say that at best. The surplus of diesel that will arrive will lower the price
12:20at the pump for drivers by only one cent per liter. So it's absolutely negligible. On the other hand,
12:27for the Russians, that's more than six billion dollars in foreign currency coming in. Now, to be
12:32clear once again, the Russians lack diesel. They only produce 60% of their domestic needs. So they import
12:38diesel. But the Russians lack foreign currency even more than diesel. So right now, it's an
12:43opportunity for them to receive dollars, to be able to spend them, to be able to buy the machine
12:48tools they lack, to be able to buy the components they lack. And on top of all that, there are
12:53also
12:53other sanctions being negotiated to be lifted. The first, obviously, is to allow Trump's own family
12:59to enrich themselves. Jared Kushner, who is currently working to buy out the assets of the Russian company,
13:06Luke Oil in the Middle East, and that's according to a leading American newspaper,
13:10with infrastructure normally worth 20 billion dollars that he could apparently buy for just 15 billion
13:15dollars. So here we have personal enrichment for Trump. And we have Trump making all these decisions
13:21to cover up his geopolitical failures and the rise in oil prices, which is 100% linked, obviously, to the
13:30American attacks on Iran. Here you see a curve where we can see when oil prices are going to start
13:34rising. It's not linked to Russian infrastructure being destroyed by the Ukrainians. It happens right
13:40when the Americans start bombing Iran, leading to the Strait of Hormuz eventually being blocked,
13:44preventing oil from being exported internationally from the Middle East. So, for reasons of domestic
13:51policy, misleading marketing, which will have absolutely no effect, he's going to pressure Ukraine,
13:58aiming once again to cause Ukraine's collapse, to inflict a defeat on it, even as Ukraine today is
14:05making gains on the battlefield, liberating its territories, reclaiming areas that have been
14:10occupied, sometimes for over a year and a half. Since the beginning of the year, the Ukrainians have
14:15been regaining territory in the South and also in Donetsk. So now, today, the ambition for the Americans
14:21is to support the Russians by financing them to push the Ukrainians toward the political defeat,
14:27even though they will never suffer a military defeat on that front. And that's what's difficult
14:31today and that's what's complicated for us too, because we also have to wake up regarding our
14:35sovereignty and we've known it for years and years, we've been saying it for years. France was the only
14:40country that absolutely wanted to keep working on sovereignty and independence. Today, because our
14:46neighbors didn't follow our lead, we can see the situation we're in. And the worst part is, they still
14:51don't seem to want to wake up to follow us in this right direction towards absolute European sovereignty.
14:55We have to stop buying Americans. We have to stop submitting to them. We absolutely have to
15:00develop infrastructure that will work despite the Americans. For instance, if we need to defend
15:06Greenland or if we need to confront Russia in the Baltic states, who's to say tomorrow that the
15:11Americans will say, careful, if the Russians bomb the Baltic states, no escalation. Above all,
15:17do not defend yourselves. Intercept the bullets and the missiles. Do not go bombing Russian territory to
15:21defend yourselves, because that would be an escalation. Yes, but in that case, we shouldn't
15:25buy American Tomahawk missiles, we shouldn't buy American F-35s, and we shouldn't hope that the
15:30Americans will be there tomorrow, which is the only cause, the only reason why a lot of countries buy
15:35American hardware, which, let me remind you, is often inferior and more expensive. And I refer you
15:39to the videos we've made on the F-35 regarding this topic. There is an emergency, there is Ukrainian
15:45suffering. I repeat, I just came back from Ukraine. I returned about 10 days ago. The Ukrainian fighters
15:50are, I would say, almost as calm as they've ever been. They are in a situation where they are settled
15:56in solid bunkers with the ability to take back territory. If there is a complete withdrawal of
16:01Starlink, it's going to be very complicated. The alternatives are the French-British Utelsat-1
16:06web system, which today is not sufficiently deployed. It's the balloons that we see more and
16:10more often tethered balloons, which will serve as communication relays. But overall, it won't lead
16:17to a collapse of the Ukrainian front. There will be more suffering. Civilians are already starting to
16:22suffer today, that's clear. Against civilians, it's an upheaval, because the Russians will be
16:26able to strike more easily, since the Americans are no longer around. But on the other hand, you
16:30shouldn't imagine that Ukraine will lose the war because it loses American support. There's a difference
16:35between the Americans who stopped supporting Ukraine and the Americans who switched to the other
16:40side. And in that context, indeed, if they start loosening the reins, if the Russians no longer
16:45face sanctions, if they can produce four times as many missiles as they do today, then we're on a
16:49completely different scale, but that would be months and months away. There's only one hope, which is
16:53obviously that this is all just marketing, and that Trump changes his mind again two weeks after the
16:59midterm elections that are about to take place. Or that he loses them so decisively that at that point
17:04his hands are tied and he can't implement this plan. But either way, it's more urgent than ever to wake
17:09up
17:09today to properly arm ourselves and support Ukraine at a level that allows it to hold the line and
17:14therefore prevent the conflict from spilling over and Russia from coming to provoke us. I refer you to
17:19the video I made on this subject in particular.