00:00It's time to take a look at some of the prediction markets over on CalShea Polymarket and take a look
00:04as to how they view some of the investment pieces in baseball this season. Tom, let's start off with
00:09the Cy Young Award winner. And this has shifted quite a bit. If you think about where we were a
00:14month ago, all of the investment tickets coming in on Cam Schlittler, that has shifted. And now
00:20Dylan Cease has moved ahead. And then the other name that's been significantly jumping, and boy,
00:25boy, I mean, you talk about where he was a month ago or two months ago, Sonny Gray of the
00:30Boston Red Sox. What a year he is having. He was a trade candidate a month ago. Now he's a
00:34Cy Young
00:35Award candidate. Now, I kind of feel like this is wide open going down the stretch. Maybe whoever
00:40the healthiest pitcher is at the end of the season wins this one. It's going to be close.
00:45In the short term, I would say there's a very easy answer. If someone's out there looking to get in
00:50and out of markets quickly, like you get a position, it improves, you get out, et cetera, et cetera.
00:55However, Cam Schlittler is going up against the Dodgers. If he puts up a great performance,
00:59his number is going to change. It's that simple. That's just how it works. Cease is going up against
01:03the Rays. The Rays are a great team. Cease is a great pitcher. But if Cease has a quote-unquote
01:07bad performance, his number is going to decrease. So if you're looking to get in and out, you're
01:11buying on Schlittler. Hopefully, he has a great game. You're selling on Cease. He has a bad game
01:16against a great team in the Rays. And therefore, you get the best of both worlds.
01:20Yeah, it makes sense. Again, with the prediction markets, you can move up, move down.
01:24Things are trending, kind of like the market. It's sort of the way that you play it there.
01:28Cy Young Award winner has taken a big shift. Now, after the month of May, it was Christopher
01:33Sanchez because Sanchez didn't give up a run in May. And then Sanchez, while he's still been good,
01:37has not been as good in June and July. So Jacob Mizorowski certainly has moved up
01:42very high to the top of this. You've got to keep an eye, of course, on Otani, whose numbers are
01:46just
01:46incredible, but doesn't have the qualification maybe necessarily to even be involved in this
01:51in this category here. Again, a question of healthier. But provided, Tom, that Mizorowski
01:57is healthy, it seems like it's his award. I don't want to rule out him. Also, Chris Sale has been
02:02fantastic as well. Maybe that's where the investment is. Maybe Sale to finish second.
02:07Yeah, I would say it would be Sale or Burns as a deeper shot if you're looking just to get
02:12something
02:13that's going to improve their price as the season goes on. The same thing I said about Schlittler can
02:17be said about Chris Sanchez. He's going up against the Dodgers in the coming week if you want to get
02:20him now. He has a great performance against the Dodgers and shuts him out over seven innings and
02:25get out on Sanchez. I think Mizorowski will end up winning it, but that's not to say that you can't
02:29find better investment opportunities on a Sale, Burns, Sanchez, from now until the end of September.
02:34We just talked about the America League Manager of the Year, and if you genuinely believe that it's
02:38going to be Kevin Cash, you've got a nice opportunity here because Will Venable is where the
02:42percentages lie in terms of the highest percentage, but there is Cash right there. I like Derek Shelton,
02:48and I like him, but I just don't think he has any shot to win this, so I'd kind of
02:52be out on that.
02:53I think the Twins go the other way. Probably one of those first two names, and if you really think
02:57it's going to be Cash, Tom, a nice opportunity here. Right, and the point you made about Will
03:02Venable I think is very true. The gap between what we thought the White Sox were going to be
03:09and them theoretically winning the division, I think that is a significant gap and would cause
03:14him to win the award because it's a big accomplishment for how bad they were over the
03:18past few years, and then winning the AL Central is huge. So I think, again, the investment opportunity
03:23could be in Cash, but if the White Sox win the division, he will win the award.
03:27Another wide open one is the National League Manager of the Year, and who would have thought
03:33back in May that Don Mattingly would be the one that you consider? Don Mattingly has won a
03:37manager of the year in Miami. Meanwhile, Miami's Clayton McCullough is right there as well. If
03:43the Marlins make the postseason, potentially it could be him. Boy, there's a long way to
03:48go, Tom, in this season, and I just don't know. I think this is so wide open. I think
03:53you could probably take four or five guys and invest now and get out when they move up
03:58a little bit. And we haven't even talked about Ali Marmol. What about St. Louis? They're
04:02having a nice year, too. Yeah, I would be, like, I have no interest in Don Kelly, no
04:09interest in Walt Weiss and Atlanta. I don't think those are options. Like, they could end
04:13up winning, but I just don't see a storyline compared to Don Mattingly taking over and vaulting
04:18this team to potentially winning the division. It's not like they're super far behind where
04:23they can't win the division, the Phillies, and Atlanta's running away with things. So
04:26I have most interest in Mattingly or dropping further down and maybe Pat Murphy with Milwaukee
04:32continuing just to put up big performances year after year, win the division, and potentially
04:36vie for the best record in the league. I think the Dodgers will scale back on things, and
04:41I think that could put the Brewers in a spot again to have the best record.
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