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Ukraine’s counterattack near Lyman did more than reclaim ground — it punctured Russia’s claim that victory was inevitable. Elvira Bary breaks down why the fighting around this Russian-held pocket matters tactically, psychologically, and politically, and why even a limited Ukrainian advance can shake the Kremlin’s war narrative.

The episode traces how Russian battlefield reporting gets polished at every level, why pro-war Z channels reacted with alarm, and how a disputed map can become a real strategic problem. It also explores the deeper issue behind the war: Russia’s need to feel powerful, respected, and historically significant, and what happens when that self-image collides with battlefield reality.

Along the way, the analysis looks at silent decisions inside Russia, growing caution around money and travel, and the uneasy calculations of anti-war Russians who want change but fear instability. This is a political psychology and military analysis podcast episode for anyone following the Russia-Ukraine war, Russian propaganda, battlefield reporting, and the collapse of war myths.

Created for listeners searching for Russia Ukraine war analysis, Lyman counterattack, military history commentary, Kremlin propaganda breakdown, Russian battlefield reporting, and political psychology podcasts. It also fits searches for war documentary style analysis, current affairs commentary, and long-form discussion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on Russian society.

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Transcript
00:00For years, Russia has built its entire story of this war around one simple idea.
00:07Sooner or later, Russia will win.
00:10After Ukraine's dramatic successes in 2022, Russia mobilized hundreds of thousands of
00:16men, expanded military production, poured enormous amounts of money into the army and
00:22gradually regained the initiative.
00:24The advances were painfully slow, sometimes measured in a few hundred meters at a time,
00:31but the front kept moving west.
00:34That became one of Moscow's most important arguments, both at home and abroad.
00:40Ukraine could resist, but time belonged to Russia.
00:44Then, near Aleman, the front moved the wrong way.
00:49Ukrainian forces counter-attacked and liberated more than 200 square kilometers of territory,
00:55pushing Russian troops back from positions they had been months trying to secure.
01:00Russia was supposed to be the side that had adapted.
01:04Its army was larger, its factories were producing for war, its troops had years of combat experience.
01:11Ukraine, according to Russian propaganda, was running out of men and losing ground.
01:16So, how did Russia get caught unprepared again?
01:20And what happens inside Russia when the battlefield suddenly contradicts the story that victory
01:26has become inevitable?
01:28My name is Elvira Barry.
01:30I am a writer who studies Russian history, culture, and political psychology.
01:35Today, we will look at what happened near Liman, why it matters far beyond those 200 square
01:42kilometers, and how Russians reacted when Ukraine did something their entire understanding of
01:48the war said should no longer be possible.
01:51Here is our roadmap for today.
01:53The Liman counter-attack.
01:55What changed on the battlefield?
01:57Why it matters tactically?
01:59And why even a limited Ukrainian advance shook Russia's sense of inevitable victory?
02:06The war of self-identity.
02:08How the invasion of Ukraine collided with Russia's understanding of itself, its strength, and
02:15its place in the world.
02:17The Russian army's reporting system.
02:20How battlefield information travels upward, and why every level of command has an incentive
02:27to make bad news look slightly better before passing it on.
02:30The Z-community.
02:32What happens when people who build their worldview around Russian military superiority suddenly
02:39receive information that no longer fits it?
02:42Silent decisions.
02:44How ordinary Russians respond to reports of a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
02:49Anti-war Russians.
02:51The hopes, fears, and uncomfortable calculations of people who want Putin's system to fall,
02:57but understand how dangerous that collapse could become.
03:00If you find this kind of analysis useful, please subscribe, like the video, and share
03:06it with someone who follows Russia and the war in Ukraine.
03:09It helps YouTube understand that there is an audience for serious discussions of Russia
03:15that go beyond the daily headlines.
03:17You can also support my work directly by joining my think-think community, leaving us
03:22super thanks, supporting through PayPal, or using your high points to help this
03:27episode reach more viewers.
03:29And one more thing.
03:31I've recently been writing memoirs about my youth in the late Soviet Union and post-Soviet
03:36Russia and publishing them on Facebook.
03:38To my surprise, people seem to be having a great deal of fun with them and keep asking
03:45me to write more.
03:46So if you know me mostly as the rather serious woman who talks about Russian wars, dictatorships,
03:51corruption, and political psychology, and you'd like to meet a somewhat different version
03:57of me, follow me on Facebook.
03:59There are plenty of stories there that are far too funny and charming to ever make it onto
04:05this channel.
04:06And if you are listening on Spotify, please follow the show so the next episode lands in
04:12your feed automatically.
04:13Thank you for being here.
04:15Let's begin.
04:16The Lyman counterattack
04:21Over the summer of 2026, Ukrainian forces began quietly counterattacking north of the
04:28city.
04:28For months, very little was said publicly about the operation.
04:33Then the Russian military bloggers themselves began sounding the alarm.
04:36By early September, open-source researchers were reporting that Ukrainian forces had cleared
04:42much of a Russian salient north of Lyman, an area estimated at roughly 200 square kilometers.
04:51Russian sources acknowledged withdrawals from some forward positions, and some reported that
04:57Ukrainian troops had pushed Russian forces back towards the Zherebets river.
05:03The precise front line is still difficult to establish, and reports of large Russian units being
05:08surrounded remain unconfirmed.
05:11This is not another Kharkiv offensive.
05:14Ukraine has not broken the Russian front, and Russian forces are still putting serious pressure
05:19on Ukrainian positions elsewhere in the Donetsk region.
05:23But tactically, the operation matters.
05:26The Russian salient north of Lyman was part of the pressure being applied toward the city
05:33and ultimately toward Slavyansk.
05:36By attacking its flanks, Ukraine has made that position much harder to maintain.
05:43Russian military bloggers themselves warned that Ukrainian gains there could disrupt the advance
05:48of Lyman and complicate Russia's plans to approach Slavyansk from the northeast.
05:54Strategically, the significance is more psychological.
05:58For several years, Russians who support the war had been told that the direction of history
06:04has already been decided.
06:07Russia advances, Ukraine retreats.
06:10The only remaining question is how long Kyiv will continue resisting the inevitable.
06:16Near Lyman, for at least a moment, the arrow moved the wrong way.
06:22And that creates a fascinating reaction inside Russia.
06:26The war for self-identity
06:31For centuries, people in Russia have lived with a very limited sense of personal influence
06:36over the state.
06:37The government is distant.
06:39Decisions are made somewhere above you.
06:42You adapt, endure, and try to protect your private life.
06:45But there has always been a powerful form of compensation.
06:50I may be insignificant as an individual, but I belong to a great country.
06:55That feeling matters enormously.
06:58Greatness, importance, respect, fear.
07:01These are not abstract ideas in Russian political culture.
07:05They help people answer a very basic question.
07:07If my own life is modest and I have little control over what happens around me, then what
07:14makes me significant?
07:16This is one reason Russians are so often taught to think in numbers and records.
07:21Russia is the largest country in the world.
07:25The Soviet Union put their first man in space.
07:28The Soviet people suffered the greatest losses in World War II.
07:32None of this makes your apartment warmer, your salary larger, or your doctor better.
07:38But it creates a sense of belonging to something historically important.
07:44And when the full-scale invasion began, the Kremlin plugged directly into that emotional system.
07:50The message was not simply that Russia needed to defeat Ukraine.
07:55Ukraine, it was that Russia was reclaiming its rightful scale.
08:00Ukraine, in this narrative, was not really a separate nation with its own political will.
08:06It was a fragment of the historical Russian world that had been pulled away by hostile forces.
08:13Bringing it back, and Russia becomes larger, stronger, and richer.
08:18The humiliation of the Soviet collapse begins to reverse.
08:22This is important, because most supporters of the war were not dreaming about censorship,
08:29mobilization, closed borders, or an economy increasingly organized around military production.
08:36The fantasy was to become something like the United States in the Russian imagination.
08:41A country so powerful that it can ignore constraints, set the rules, pressure weaker states,
08:48and force the strongest countries in the world to negotiate with it as an equal.
08:54The war was supposed to restore status.
08:58Ukraine, of course, entered this war with the opposite understanding of itself.
09:03For Ukrainians, the central issue is precisely that they are a separate nation.
09:08They do not want to be absorbed into Russia, reunited with Russia, protected by Russia, or represented by Russia.
09:16The insistence that Ukraine is not truly separate is exactly what Ukrainians are fighting against.
09:23So this war is not about territory.
09:25It is a collision between two incompatible identities.
09:29And if you look at the war from the perspective of a committed pro-war Russian,
09:34this creates a serious psychological problem.
09:38Ukraine is not supposed to be able to defeat Russia.
09:41How could it?
09:42Russian propaganda has spent years describing Ukrainians as confused Russians,
09:48artificial nation builders, western puppets, extremists,
09:53or simply people who have forgotten who they really are.
09:57At the same time, Russia is described as historically powerful,
10:02military formidable, and destined to prevail.
10:05And the people who accept this world view tend to consume media that constantly confirms it.
10:13They hear that Russia is winning, Ukraine is running out of men, and Europe is exhausted.
10:18And when information appears that contradicts this picture, many simply avoid it.
10:25The defeats of 2022 were easy to explain away.
10:30Russia had gone in unprepared and needed time to mobilize.
10:36But now it has had that time.
10:39The army has expanded, factories are producing for the war,
10:43and Russian troops have years of combat experience.
10:46So, if Russia has adapted, and Ukraine is supposedly getting weaker,
10:52how did the Ukrainian counterattack near Lehman happen at all?
10:57That is a much harder question,
11:00because this time, we just weren't ready yet, no longer works.
11:10To understand how something like the Lehman counterattack can happen,
11:14we need to look at the way information moves through the Russian army.
11:18For many officers, this war is an extraordinary career opportunity.
11:24Military budgets are enormous.
11:27Promotions come faster.
11:29Command gives access to money, equipment, contracts, and connections
11:34that would be difficult to acquire in civilian life.
11:37The obvious downside is that you can be killed,
11:40but senior officers are not usually the ones
11:43crawling through three lines toward Ukrainian positions.
11:47Russia has plenty of low-value assault infantry for that.
11:52The greater personal danger is losing your position.
11:56Once you fall out of favor, you lose access to resources,
12:00and they are maybe nowhere equally profitable to go.
12:03Worse, you may become the convenient target of a corruption investigation,
12:09or be blamed for military failures.
12:11So, the most important task is to keep your superior satisfied,
12:16and your superior has exactly the same problem with his superior.
12:20That changes the purpose of reporting.
12:23Suppose you were ordered to capture a village.
12:26Your troops reached their outskirts,
12:29planted a flag,
12:30filmed themselves there,
12:31and then withdrew because the position could not be held.
12:36You can report failure,
12:38or you can report that Russian forces
12:40entered the settlement and established positions.
12:43The second version is much safer.
12:46At the next level, that may become,
12:49Russian troops are consolidating control.
12:52One level higher,
12:54the settlement has been liberated.
12:57Russian military bloggers themselves
13:00often complain about what they call
13:03красивые доклады,
13:05beautiful reports.
13:06Each level makes the news a little better
13:09before sending it upward.
13:11This does not stay inside the army.
13:14Once the Ministry of Defense announces another captured village,
13:18state television repeats it.
13:20Maps are changed.
13:22Military commentators begin discussing the next objective.
13:26Another small success becomes proof
13:28that Russia is steadily advancing,
13:31and Ukraine is collapsing.
13:32The problem is that these reports
13:35can also shape real military decisions.
13:37If headquarters believe that a position
13:41is already secure when it is not,
13:44the next operation is planned
13:46on the wrong assumptions.
13:48Reinforcements may not be sent.
13:50Ukrainian forces may be stronger than expected.
13:54A vulnerable flank may simply disappear
13:57from the official picture
13:59because, according to the reports,
14:02everything there is fine,
14:03and the incentives encourage everyone to participate.
14:07The village itself is not particularly important
14:10to the officer writing the report.
14:12What matters is surviving the war
14:15with more money,
14:16a hiring,
14:17and a better position than he had when it began.
14:20For a while,
14:22the system works beautifully.
14:25The commander looks successful,
14:27his superior reports progress,
14:29Moscow receives encouraging numbers,
14:32state television gets another victory.
14:35Viewers hear that the Russian army
14:38is moving forward.
14:39But there is one problem.
14:42Sooner or later,
14:44reality knocks on the door.
14:46The Z community.
14:50The most important reaction came from
14:53Russia's own pro-war information space.
14:55They support the war,
14:57want Russia to win,
14:58and normally spend much of their time
15:01documenting Russian advances.
15:02But over the past few days,
15:04their language around Lehmann
15:06has changed noticeably.
15:08Yuri Padalaka,
15:09whose Telegram channel
15:10has almost 2.7 million subscribers,
15:13acknowledged that Ukrainian forces
15:15were moving forward
15:17and trying to cut Russian logistics
15:20around Lehmann.
15:21Rybar,
15:22with more than 1.5 million subscribers,
15:25wrote about growing evidence
15:27that the situation was deteriorating.
15:30The reaction from two majors,
15:33another major Z channel
15:34with about 1.16 million subscribers,
15:38was even more revealing.
15:40The channel wrote
15:41that Ukrainian forces
15:43had been counterattacking for months
15:45and that the situation
15:47had long required attention
15:48from the Central Command.
15:50It warned against
15:51what Russians call
15:53Zakrashevayt Kvadratikivdolk,
15:56essentially,
15:57coloring territory
15:58on the map on credit,
16:00claiming advances
16:01before they really exist
16:03and against sending
16:05beautiful reports upward.
16:06Then it asked
16:07why no systemic changes
16:08had followed,
16:09calling the answer
16:11rhetorical.
16:12Look at what is happening here.
16:14The argument is no longer
16:16simply about
16:16whether Russia lost
16:18several villages.
16:19It is about
16:20whether Russian commanders
16:21themselves know
16:22what territory
16:24they actually control.
16:25That problem
16:26became almost absurd
16:28in nearby Svetohirsky.
16:31Russian authorities
16:33announced
16:33that the city
16:34had been captured.
16:36Then,
16:36an apparently AI-manipulated video
16:39circulated as evidence
16:41of Russian presence there.
16:43Ukrainian commander
16:44Andrei Beletsky
16:45reported by filming
16:47himself walking openly
16:48around the Svetohirsky lavra.
16:50Rabar did not try
16:52to defend
16:53the Russian version.
16:54It called the episode
16:56another example
16:57of false reporting
16:58and warned
16:59that fictional
17:00territorial gains
17:02are dangerous
17:03because commanders
17:04may start planning
17:05real operations
17:06using a false picture
17:08of the battlefield.
17:09In its words,
17:11without punishment,
17:12this kind of deception
17:14can eventually produce
17:15strategic consequences.
17:17Even Alexander Kotz,
17:19a prominent pro-worker
17:20respondent
17:21who explicitly
17:22rejected panic,
17:23acknowledged
17:24on September 11
17:25that Russian troops
17:27around Liman
17:27had at least temporarily
17:29shifted onto the defensive
17:31while Ukraine
17:32was attacking
17:33across a broad front.
17:34His reassurance
17:36was no longer
17:37that Ukraine
17:37could not advance.
17:39It was
17:40that the Ukrainian
17:41advance
17:42was expensive,
17:43limited
17:44and could eventually
17:45be stopped.
17:46That is a
17:47significant change.
17:49When people have
17:50invested heavily
17:51in a narrative
17:52they cannot easily
17:54abandon,
17:54they rarely
17:56blame themselves.
17:57Instead,
17:58they try to explain
17:59what went wrong
18:00and look for
18:02someone else
18:02to blame.
18:04More and more often,
18:05the escape guards
18:06are incompetent
18:08generals,
18:09dishonest reports
18:10or particular units.
18:13The war itself
18:13remains unquestioned.
18:15sometimes
18:16the doubt
18:17climbs higher.
18:18People ask
18:19whether the
18:20president
18:21even knows
18:22what is really
18:23happening,
18:24but they often
18:25avoid using
18:25his name.
18:26He becomes
18:27Uncle Vova
18:28or simply
18:29the main one.
18:30That is much
18:31more dangerous
18:32for the Kremlin
18:33than losing
18:34another patch
18:35of forest.
18:36Once the
18:37central myth
18:37begins to crack,
18:39it stops
18:39giving its supporters
18:41what they wanted
18:42from it
18:42in the first place
18:43as sense
18:45of importance,
18:46strength
18:46and belonging
18:47to something
18:48formidable.
18:49Instead,
18:50they are left
18:50looking like
18:51people who
18:51believe
18:52false maps,
18:53trusted false
18:54reports
18:55and cheered
18:56for victories
18:57that may never
18:58have happened.
18:59Nobody wants
19:00to identify
19:00with that.
19:01And unfortunately
19:02for Putin,
19:03even his most
19:04loyal supporter
19:05will ultimately
19:06care more
19:07about his
19:08own emotional
19:09needs
19:09than about
19:10Putin himself.
19:12Silent
19:12Decisions
19:16When news
19:17of a Ukrainian
19:18counterattack
19:18reaches an
19:19ordinary Russian,
19:20the conclusion
19:21may be very
19:22simple.
19:23This war
19:24is not ending
19:24anytime soon.
19:26The president
19:27wants to continue
19:28and the Ukrainians
19:29are still capable
19:30of fighting.
19:31That realization
19:32changes behavior.
19:34A man
19:34considering a
19:35military contract
19:36may hesitate.
19:38A family
19:39with an adult
19:40son starts
19:40listening more
19:42carefully to
19:42mobilization rumors.
19:44A business
19:45owner who
19:45has postponed
19:46leaving Russia
19:47may decide
19:48that waiting
19:49another six
19:50months is
19:51becoming too
19:51risky.
19:52Individual
19:53decisions like
19:54this eventually
19:56add up.
19:56We can already
19:57see signs of
19:58greater caution
20:00in the way
20:00Russians handle
20:01their money.
20:02In the first
20:04half of
20:042026,
20:05individuals
20:06transferred about
20:071.3 trillion
20:09rubles abroad.
20:10In the second
20:11quarter,
20:11they withdrew
20:13554 billion
20:14rubles more
20:15in cash
20:16than they
20:17deposited.
20:18And the demand
20:19for cash
20:19accelerated further
20:20in the summer.
20:22The amount
20:23of cash
20:23in circulation
20:24increased by
20:25more than
20:261 trillion
20:27rubles in
20:27July and
20:28August
20:28long.
20:29We can see
20:30that people
20:31are preparing
20:31for uncertainty
20:33rather than
20:34assuming that
20:35normal life
20:35will soon
20:36return.
20:37That is how
20:38attitudes change
20:39in practice.
20:40People do not
20:41necessarily wake up
20:42one morning
20:43and admit that
20:44the propaganda
20:45was false.
20:46They simply
20:46stop counting
20:47on the government
20:48to deliver
20:49the outcome
20:50it promised
20:51and begin
20:52making their
20:52own
20:53arrangements.
20:54And from
20:54that point
20:55on,
20:55it is
20:56increasingly
20:57everyone
20:57for themselves.
20:59Anti-war
21:00Russians
21:03For anti-war
21:05Russians,
21:05a Ukrainian
21:06success
21:07creates a
21:08very different
21:09emotional reaction.
21:11There is relief,
21:12sometimes even joy.
21:13But the feeling
21:15is rarely
21:15simple.
21:16People who
21:17want Putin's
21:17system to
21:18collapse
21:18also understand
21:19that political
21:20collapse in Russia
21:21has never
21:22been a neat
21:23process.
21:24A military
21:25defeat
21:25does not
21:26automatically
21:27produce
21:27democracy.
21:28It can
21:29produce a
21:29palace
21:30coup,
21:31a struggle
21:31among
21:31security
21:32services,
21:33regional
21:34instability
21:34or simply
21:35another
21:35authoritarian
21:36ruler
21:36who
21:37blames
21:37Putin
21:37for
21:38losing
21:38the war
21:39and
21:39promises
21:39to
21:39fight
21:40it
21:40more
21:40competently.
21:42So even
21:42people who
21:43desperately
21:44want
21:44Ukraine
21:45to win
21:45may watch
21:46events
21:47near
21:47Liman
21:47with
21:48two
21:48forts
21:48at
21:49one.
21:49The
21:49first is
21:50good.
21:52Russia
21:52can still
21:53be pushed
21:54back.
21:54The
21:55second is
21:55what
21:56happens
21:56inside
21:57Russia
21:57if this
21:58continues?
21:59That
22:00question
22:00becomes
22:01especially
22:01uncomfortable
22:02because
22:02many
22:02anti-war
22:03Russians
22:03still have
22:04relatives,
22:05property,
22:06friends and
22:06elderly parents
22:08inside the
22:08country.
22:09They may hate
22:10the regime
22:10and still
22:11fear what a
22:12serious state
22:13crisis would
22:14do to
22:14ordinary
22:15people.
22:16There is
22:16also the
22:17problem of
22:17expectations.
22:18Since
22:182022,
22:20Russian
22:20opposition
22:20circles have
22:21repeatedly
22:22searched for
22:22the event
22:23that might
22:24finally break
22:25the system.
22:26Mobilization,
22:27Prigozhin's
22:28mutiny,
22:29economic
22:29pressure,
22:30Ukrainian
22:30attacks
22:31inside
22:31Russia.
22:32Each
22:33time,
22:33some
22:33people
22:34hoped
22:34that the
22:35shock
22:35would
22:35become
22:36politically
22:36decisive.
22:37And
22:38each
22:38time,
22:39the
22:39system
22:39absorbed
22:40it.
22:40That
22:41experience
22:42has made
22:42many
22:43anti-war
22:43Russians
22:44much more
22:45cautious.
22:45They
22:46no longer
22:46assume
22:47that a
22:47battlefield
22:48setback
22:49will
22:49suddenly
22:50bring
22:50crowds
22:51into
22:51the
22:51streets
22:52or
22:52split
22:52the
22:53elite.
22:53A
22:54Ukrainian
22:54counter-attack
22:55near
22:55Liman
22:56matters
22:56because
22:57it
22:57weakens
22:58the
22:58sense
22:58that
22:59Russia's
22:59advance
23:00is
23:00inevitable.
23:01The
23:02more
23:02realistic
23:02hope
23:03now
23:03is
23:03that
23:04such
23:04setbacks
23:05accumulate.
23:06Another
23:07failed
23:07offensive,
23:08another
23:08lie
23:09exposed,
23:10another
23:10general
23:10blamed,
23:11another
23:11family
23:12deciding
23:12that
23:13the
23:13war
23:13will
23:13not
23:14end
23:14soon,
23:14another
23:15businessman
23:15moving
23:16money
23:16abroad,
23:17another
23:18officer
23:18wondering
23:19whether
23:19his
23:20superior
23:20is
23:20lying
23:21to
23:21Moscow,
23:21another
23:22supporter
23:23quietly
23:24losing
23:24interest.
23:26None
23:26of these
23:27events
23:27look
23:28revolutionary
23:29on their
23:29own,
23:30but they
23:30accumulate.
23:32And what
23:33they begin
23:34to make
23:34inevitable
23:35is not
23:36Russia's
23:36victory,
23:37but change
23:38itself.
23:39Before you
23:40go,
23:40I want to
23:41ask you
23:41something
23:41personal.
23:42Have you
23:43ever stayed
23:43in a bad
23:44situation
23:44because you
23:45believed
23:45nothing could
23:47really change
23:47until one
23:49unexpected
23:49setback,
23:50refusal,
23:51or small
23:51victory suddenly
23:52made you
23:53realize the
23:54outcome was
23:54not inevitable
23:55after all?
23:57I'd love to
23:58hear what
23:58happened in
23:59the comments.
24:00If you
24:01found this
24:01video useful,
24:02please like,
24:03subscribe,
24:04and share it
24:05with someone
24:06who follows
24:06Russia and
24:07the war in
24:08Ukraine.
24:09You can also
24:10support my
24:10work through
24:11SuperThings,
24:12Paypal,
24:12or joining
24:13my think tank
24:14community.
24:15And if
24:16you'd like
24:16to see
24:17a very
24:17different
24:18side of
24:18me,
24:19follow me
24:20on Facebook
24:20where I've
24:21been publishing
24:22stories from
24:23my memoirs.
24:24If you are
24:25listening on
24:25Spotify,
24:26please follow
24:27the show
24:28so the
24:29next episode
24:30lands in
24:30your feed
24:31automatically.
24:32Thank you
24:33for watching.
24:34I'll see you
24:34in the next
24:35one.
24:57I'll see you
24:58one.

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