- 19 hours ago
America has ambitions for the Arctic that may even include invading Greenland, but when you analyze the satellite imagery and shipping trackers, there's only one winner in the melting far north: Russia.
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00:00In the 2010s, strange shape starts to appear on remote islands in the frozen far north.
00:07Everywhere you look, satellite imagery, thermal imaging, shipping data.
00:12It's clear that the era of a peaceful Arctic is well and truly over.
00:18And if melting sea ice means a race for resources and military control, there is only one winner.
00:26Russia's claim for Russia's increased military activity.
00:30Icebreakers, trade routes, airports and nuclear submarine bases.
00:34But look closely and you can see that in places, US capabilities in the far north have been left to
00:40rot.
00:41Aside from all the talk of invading Greenland, there is a feeling that a future conflict may well unfold across
00:48an Arctic battle space.
00:50There's a back and forth that could potentially spin out into all out conflict.
00:53A fight that might even include China.
00:56We studied the map, spoke to the experts and sent our reporters to the world's largest island.
01:03To find out if America's recent interest in the warming Arctic is too little too late.
01:16We're so used to seeing the world as a Mercator projection, but on a globe and looking from the top,
01:22you can see why everyone wants a piece of the Arctic.
01:27For a start, less ice in a warming world in theory means more trade.
01:32Why travel from Shanghai to Rotterdam via the Suez Canal when you can just skirt along the top of Russia
01:38and save two weeks of shipping time?
01:41This NASA visualisation shows the Arctic sea ice shrinking through the spring and summer of 2025.
01:48By September, it had retreated further than the historical average as shown by this yellow line.
01:55That's a loss of ice equivalent to the size of Alaska.
01:59Something that we might once have thought as a frozen desert is now becoming increasingly open water.
02:06You know, the Arctic Ocean is a place where you can travel through.
02:09Research by the Arctic Council shows that ships travelled almost double the nautical mileage in the Arctic in 2025 compared
02:17to 2013.
02:19Much of this increase is from fishing boats which are venturing further north.
02:23There has also been a large increase in the number of oil tankers and cargo vessels.
02:28Take a look at this shipping tracker data from Baffin Bay between Greenland and Canada provided by Starboard Maritime Intelligence.
02:35These are the paths of cargo ships sailing to and from one of the world's northernmost mines.
02:41The bulk carriers in this port are collecting iron ore from the Mary River mine 100km inland.
02:48In 2025, ships like this sailed over 130,000 nautical miles in the Baffin Bay area compared to just 3
02:55,500 in 2013.
02:58But when it comes to cargo traffic in the Arctic, it is Russia with its 15,000 mile long Arctic
03:04coastline that is leading the charge.
03:07These are Russia's oil and gas reserves in the Arctic.
03:11And take a look at this liquefied natural gas plant on the Yamal Peninsula, opened by Russia and China in
03:182017.
03:20Before then, very few gas tankers came this way, but as we can see on these maps, it is now
03:25a busy route.
03:27This image captured in August 2025 shows an LNG tanker loading up before a delivery to EU ports.
03:35The EU is stepping up bans on Russian LNG exports because of the war in Ukraine.
03:42And increasingly, this gas is heading to China.
03:47This map shows the route of the LNG tanker Nikolai Uvantsev travelling to China and then making a stop in
03:54South Korea.
03:55This is known as the Northern Sea Route or NSR.
03:59The Center for High North Logistics estimates the number of vessels transiting through the NSR in 2025 was the highest
04:06ever,
04:07with vessels making over 100 trips carrying over 3 million tons of cargo, mainly from Russia's western ports to China.
04:14A number which dwarfs the amount transported across the top of North America via the fabled Northwest Passage.
04:21In the not-too-distant future, a summer sea route using icebreaker ships will be possible at the North Pole
04:27itself.
04:28Russia certainly isn't waiting for global warming to clear a path for its tankers.
04:33It has the world's largest fleet of icebreakers for that.
04:36We compiled a list.
04:39Russia has 42.
04:42The largest, like the Arctica, are known as heavy icebreakers.
04:46They can carve through ice around 5 to 9 feet deep and are designed to operate year-round.
04:52Russia has 13 of this variety.
04:55The US just won.
04:58And this is it, the US Coast Guard's Polar Star.
05:01It was built in the 1970s and a replacement is long overdue.
05:07This satellite image shows the ship in a dry dock in California in May 2025, where it received a $75
05:13million overhaul.
05:16There's unlikely to be another before 2030, according to the US Coast Guard.
05:21By comparison, since 2018, Russia has built eight new heavy icebreakers.
05:28Four of them are nuclear-powered, making them ideal for operating along the northern sea route, because they don't need
05:34to refuel.
05:42This satellite image shows their construction at the Baltic shipyard in St. Petersburg.
05:47These icebreakers are already the most powerful in the world, but the Rossiya, being built at the Zvezda shipyard in
05:59eastern Russia at a cost of $2.7 billion, is likely to be twice as powerful.
06:14This is the path of the icebreaking tug Yorubei, leaving the Yamal LNG port in February 2026, clearing a path
06:22for tankers.
06:23Thermal imaging cameras onboard satellites and provided by Constella show the same path, but this time measuring changes in temperature.
06:32Clear water, exposed by the icebreaker, show up in warm colours.
06:37And this is the path of the Sibir nuclear icebreaker, as it escorted a dark vessel with no identifying AIS
06:45signal out of the eastern Arctic port of Pevek.
06:49If trade is heating up, then so too is the rhetoric around security and possible conflict.
06:55There are Russian destroyers, there are Chinese destroyers and bigger.
06:59The world order, as we have known it, is under pressure.
07:05After the Cold War, this became a region of international cooperation.
07:08But if you come back to our globe, you can see how easily tensions can flare.
07:14These are the Arctic nations, and these are their exclusive economic zones, the 200 nautical miles from a country's coast,
07:22where they can exploit resources such as oil and minerals.
07:25To understand how close all these countries are, and how strategic that is from getting one place to the other
07:30in a very short time over the North Pole, is extremely valuable from a security standpoint.
07:36But things get complicated when you consider each country's claims to the continental shelf beyond that mark.
07:42Russia, for example, claims its rights extend to the North Pole, where it even planted a flag in 2007.
08:02Russia's strongman Vladimir Putin sees the Arctic, including Norwegian-owned Svalbard, as part of his sphere of influence.
08:11Since the 2010s, Russia has been strengthening its military bases in the Arctic.
08:16This is the Kola Peninsula, the heart of Russia's military presence in the Western Arctic.
08:23Ports, submarine bases, and airfields designed to project power to neighbouring Europe, and out across the Arctic to North America.
08:33This is a Russian submarine at a base near Murmansk, seen in 2022, most likely a nuclear-powered ballistic missile
08:41sub.
08:43And this is a recently expanded network of missile storage bunkers.
08:48At the nearby Severimorsk 1 airbase, you can make out maritime patrol aircraft and Sukhoi fighters.
08:56As you can see, this airport has been significantly upgraded with new taxiways and parking aprons.
09:03Recent military exercises by both Russia and NATO resemble the cat-and-mouse games of the Cold War.
09:11The war in Ukraine and Finland and Sweden joining NATO has raised the possibility of a hot war spilling into
09:19the Arctic.
09:19The 2025 Ukrainian drone strikes on the Olenya airbase south of Murmansk destroyed several Tu-95 aircraft.
09:29A number of nations have accused Russia of operating a shadow fleet to test NATO's responsiveness while also threatening Europe's
09:37undersea cables.
09:39Russia has also been caught running its submarines and spy ships toward the Atlantic through what's known as the GI
09:46-UK Gap, the maritime chokepoint between Greenland, Iceland and the UK.
09:52So the whole region has for the Russians been, you know, a zone of militarization over the last decade or
09:59more.
09:59To say nothing of the hypersonic missile testing that they conduct in the Arctic as well.
10:03In October 2025, Russia carried out its annual nuclear drills with ballistic missiles fired from the Plisets Cosmodrome from a
10:13submarine in the Barents Sea and cruise missiles from bomber aircraft, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
10:20Meanwhile, NATO has been mounting a response.
10:24Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the alliance has established nine battle groups along its eastern flank, most with
10:33around 1,000 permanent troops each.
10:36The most recent was set up in Finland in 2026, NATO's first in the Arctic Circle.
10:43For the most part, NATO's joint focus in the Arctic has been on short-term exercises.
10:4825,000 service members from 14 NATO nations participated in the Cold Response military exercise in March 2026.
10:59This included around 4,000 U.S. Marines.
11:02This chart, compiled by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, shows how NATO and allied countries' military exercises and
11:11maneuvers in the Arctic are keeping pace with Russia, a modern-day arms race in the far north.
11:17Recently acquired satellite imagery, analyzed as part of a joint media investigation, appears to show Russia building new military structures,
11:26including barracks, ammunition storage sites, as well as long lines of military vehicles.
11:42These are some of Russia's largest Arctic bases.
11:45These are some of Russia's largest Arctic bases.
11:46Many have been upgraded to include long runways, satellite stations and advanced weaponry.
11:53On the runway of the Rogachevo base, you can make out an early warning and control aircraft.
11:58And here on Wrangel Island, just 300 miles from the Alaskan coast, you can see the construction of a star
12:05-shaped accommodation block, as well as a Sopka-2 radar installation.
12:09This is most likely an early warning radar network to detect incoming aircraft.
12:15There is a similar facility at Severny Klever, Russian for Northern Clover.
12:21It refers to the design that makes it easier for soldiers to reach its sprawling facilities without needing to go
12:27outside.
12:29And here's another on the Franz Josefland archipelago, Russia's northernmost military base, only 640 miles from the North Pole.
12:38President Putin, in particular, is absolutely committed to making Russia as large as it possibly can be.
12:46And that might involve, for example, taking parts of Ukraine.
12:49It might well yet involve taking Svalbard, a Norwegian territory.
12:54And it's certainly going to involve making Russia the most enormous Arctic Ocean power that it can possibly be.
13:03Meanwhile, the story of the U.S. military footprint at the top of the globe has largely been one of
13:09decline.
13:10The U.S. has never had a military base on home soil within the Arctic Circle.
13:15But it took control of the Alaskan subarctic during World War II.
13:29During the war, the U.S. built roughly 300 military installations throughout Alaska, including several bases here in the Aleutian
13:37Islands.
13:38The U.S. saw the islands as a vital defense against Japanese expansion.
13:43Today, many of the military sites here are abandoned and overgrown.
13:47Then after the Cold War, our competency in the Arctic diminished.
13:51We had no reason to be up there. Everything was prefaced on peace and cooperation.
13:56And I think across the North American Arctic, you see this repeated over and over again.
14:03Infrastructure being built for all kinds of strategic military imperatives.
14:08And then when circumstances changed, things are just left abandoned.
14:14This is Attu Island, the far western point of the Aleutian Islands.
14:19U.S. soldiers fought a deadly battle here to liberate the island from the Japanese in 1943.
14:26South of the old Japanese settlement is an abandoned American air station and naval base.
14:33Nearby Kiska Island was also occupied by the Japanese.
14:37This is all that remains of their runway and submarine base.
14:41And you can still make out the wreck of the Japanese transport ship, the Borneo Maru.
14:47Further along the island chain is ADAC, a former U.S. Navy base. It closed in 1997.
14:55Some U.S. officials have proposed reopening the base to counter Russian and Chinese activity in the North Pacific and
15:02Bering Sea.
15:03It would enable up to 10x the maritime patrol reconnaissance aircraft coverage of that key and increasingly effective space.
15:15We should reopen ADAC and we should enhance the ability to operate out of Ericsson.
15:21Ericsson is this small air station east of Attu.
15:26Only around 200 people live here full time and their main mission is to service this radar.
15:32It forms part of a network of long-range radar systems across Alaska and Canada that monitor incoming threats like
15:40ballistic missiles.
15:41But experts say these radars from the 1980s are outdated against modern cruise missiles.
15:49And the network is racking up costs as the sites are threatened by climate change.
15:53This radar at Oliktok Point is one of the many along Alaska's northern coast being consumed by a coastline receding
16:02by as much as 80 feet each year.
16:05In August 2025 the U.S. and Canada sent service members to ADAC and across the state for a training
16:12exercise.
16:14But for now the only permanent military presence in the Aleutians is Ericsson and the Coast Guard equipped with just
16:21one cutter at any given time.
16:23It's really something of a mystery why the U.S. has long neglected our Arctic territory which is virtually only
16:28Alaska.
16:29In order to project sovereignty in a region that we possess that is part of our country we need to
16:35have a presence.
16:36And one security cutter in the Bering Sea for all of Alaska is a joke.
16:41The U.S. still has 20,000 active duty personnel stationed in Alaska which is under half the number stationed
16:48here at the peak of the Cold War.
16:50They're concentrated inland near Fairbanks and Anchorage where Air Force bases house over a hundred fifth generation fighters.
16:59But despite the air strength there are currently no naval bases in Alaska.
17:06Some World War II era bases like Kodiak Naval Base and Sitka Naval Base were reduced to Coast Guard stations
17:13and civilian airports.
17:16This idea of needing to be an Arctic nation and then forgetting how to be an Arctic nation,
17:21not instilling the importance of the region to our national security and the people who are protecting it,
17:25is one of the fundamental things that we've lost since the Cold War.
17:28Meanwhile, construction timelines for the Golden Dome defense system extend into the 2030s
17:35with billions already pledged to an array of sensors and to modernization efforts at Bitufik Space Base in Greenland.
17:45We hadn't forgotten about Greenland, threatened with compulsory purchase or invasion from perhaps the least expected source,
17:53its ally and protector, the United States.
17:56To think that now all of a sudden we will just possess another Arctic nation and become an Arctic super
18:02superpower is bonkers.
18:04It's not that the Russians' trainings are better, it's that they're there all the time.
18:08They live there, they have troops who are stationed there year-round.
18:11They do their basic training up there.
18:12At one stage in World War II, the US operated around 20 military installations here,
18:17including several small weather stations, a naval facility and four airfields which served as refueling stops for planes on the
18:26way to Europe.
18:27One of the things that's worth noting is how important Greenland was as a bridge, if you will, between North
18:35America and Europe.
18:36Since then, the US presence has been in terminal decline.
18:41Bluey East 2 is an old American airbase in eastern Greenland.
18:46Abandoned in the 1950s, you can still see in these images some of the 10,000 rusting fuel barrels left
18:54behind.
18:56Here at Bluey West 4, there's barely a trace of the former airstrip.
19:01The other two US airfields remained active during the Cold War, but are now owned by Greenland for civilian use.
19:09Today, the only permanent American military post in Greenland is Bitufik Space Base.
19:15After evicting the native people who lived here, the US and Denmark built the base together in the 1950s to
19:22stage long-range bombers closer to the Soviet Union and China.
19:27It now specialises in missile defence and radar surveillance, but only has a permanent population of 650, compared to 10
19:35,000 at the height of the Cold War.
19:38Some see the talk of needing to claim Greenland for the sake of US national security as a smokescreen to
19:45hide decades of American underinvestment in its Arctic defences.
19:49And the US doesn't need to invade if it wants to build back its military strength here.
19:55In reality, Greenland already offers the US everything it needs for national security.
20:00However, we've long neglected that ability, and we've also neglected the one base that we do have there in the
20:06North.
20:07We haven't built out its capabilities. We haven't staffed it more. We haven't placed defensive capabilities there.
20:13We haven't increased the surveillance capabilities of it.
20:15And those are just fundamental things that we could have done before even ratcheting up the rhetoric over Greenland.
20:20And like US military bases in Alaska, Bitufik is feeling the heat.
20:26Arctic temperatures are rising about three and a half times faster than the global average.
20:30A 2023 report to Congress assessed that changes to permafrost posed a moderate to considerable risk to the buildings and
20:40structures at Bitufik.
20:41The shifting ground has already interrupted hangar operations, and repairs are projected to become more costly.
20:49A US Department of Defense report in 2024 into the Arctic acknowledges the lack of investment in this region of
20:56strategic competition.
20:58In the same year, the US also signed an agreement with Canada and Finland to scale up icebreaker construction.
21:06One contractor, Davey Defense, is spending $1 billion to transform these shipyards in Texas into an icebreaker factory to mirror
21:15Russia's Baltic shipyard.
21:17We have a lot of our favorite players cruising around the coast, and we have to be careful.
21:23As the US returns its focus to the Arctic, it's perhaps not the North Atlantic they should be worried about,
21:28but the North Pacific and China.
21:33The four Chinese military ships spotted near Alaska.
21:35It says it detected, tracked and intercepted multiple aircraft from Russia and China.
21:39The US military has sent four of its naval destroyers to Alaska.
21:4311 warship joint naval task force between Russia and China.
21:48Even though it is 900 miles away from the Arctic Circle, China declared itself a near-Arctic state in 2018.
21:56Now, in the last 10 or 15 years in Greenland, China, through its various state companies and organizations,
22:05attempted to purchase airports, invest in infrastructure, and also help develop the mining sector.
22:14Since then, the Chinese and Russian militaries have begun conducting joint training exercises and patrols, including ones near Alaska.
22:22China is also investing in naval capabilities, ships, and drones for the region.
22:37China's Arctic push isn't just a military one. It sees the Northern Sea Route as its polar silk road.
22:44This map from Harvard's Belfer Center for International Affairs gives a picture of proposed and active Chinese investments in the
22:52Arctic across sectors, including infrastructure, energy, and research.
22:56China's interest in the Arctic is to have a presence, full stop.
23:00As it can slowly gain presence and efficiency in the North, then it becomes potentially an issue for the US
23:05and potentially an issue for Western nations.
23:08I think what's driving Donald Trump's geopolitical vision is the United States as a large, secure, hemispheric power.
23:17But whatever happens, I think this is a long-term US investment, and it's about keeping China out of the
23:25North American hemisphere.
23:27In Greenland, for example, attempts by China to buy an abandoned Danish naval base and invest in airport infrastructure were
23:35vetoed not only by Denmark, but also by the United States.
23:39Trump's fixation on Greenland is, I think, hopeful of preventing Chinese investment that would threaten national security, that would put
23:50China and Russia closer to the US physically, geographically.
23:53But Greenlanders want to build out their economy, and they're open to trade with nations that aren't friendly to the
24:01US.
24:01In all the bluster from the superpowers, there's very little space given to the Inuit, the Sami, and the dozens
24:07of other indigenous peoples who live throughout the Arctic.
24:11We don't appreciate being talked about as a commodity, as something you can buy or sell or acquire or take.
24:17That is, of course, offensive to all people.
24:19We visited Greenland on its national day, the 21st of June.
24:24Another obstacle standing in the way of those with Arctic ambitions is the growing movement here for autonomy and full
24:31independence from Denmark.
24:3389% of Greenland's population are Greenlanders, and we are Inuit.
24:38Kupanuk Olsen is one of the best-known faces of Greenland's independence movement.
24:45Today is our flag's anniversary. We got it on our national day in 1985, the same year I was born.
24:58Kupanuk is also a mining engineer and has served as a politician here.
25:02Even though we are only 57,000 people, we have so much to say.
25:09And it should be our own voice and not the Danish Prime Minister's voice being heard worldwide.
25:19Because who we are is so different than the Danish culture.
25:29How do you feel and how do Greenlanders feel about the way that the White House has spoken about Greenland?
25:36Before Trump's interest in Greenland again, at the end of 2024, it was like, almost like, illegal to talk about
25:47independence.
25:47But now we can openly talk about independence.
25:52So it's good and bad with the whole thing.
25:57The Trump administration's aggressive stance towards Greenland has upset Europeans and Greenlanders alike,
26:03and threatened the fabric of the NATO alliance.
26:07When Donald Trump Jr. flew to nuke in January 2025 on his father's private jet, for many that was the
26:14last straw.
26:15When the plane landed, I felt like I got, like, a punch in my stomach.
26:22I couldn't, I felt I couldn't breathe for like, an hour or so.
26:26It's like, um, so yes, I was a bit afraid in the beginning.
26:30But then I started to realise, like, they cannot just take us. It's impossible.
26:35So these visits will not be reassuring.
26:38They just cause further unsettlement.
26:40And they will cause also, I'm afraid, deep resentment that, yet again, Greenland looks and feels like a place where
26:49great powers can carry out their particular designs.
26:54From above, Trump's vision pulls Greenland into a US stronghold in the northwestern hemisphere, keeping any threat from Russia and
27:03China at arm's length.
27:04On the ground, Greenlanders told us that they want to share their island and what it has to offer with
27:09the world.
27:10But they want it to be on their terms.
27:13The island is feeling the changing climate.
27:17Shorter hunting seasons, thinner sea ice and retreating glaciers.
27:21But it's a different man-made threat that is now casting its shadow.
27:55I know all this character a few feliz to come for sure, but thealities look great at all.
27:55I think they're going to tell you all about the Ironman table.
27:55I know which meaning for Polar's short, birds, and dark birds, but if they see that так, that not a
27:55long Nunx tá t49.
27:55How is it going?
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