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ITL reacts to Bill Barnwell's report on C.J. Stroud's trade value and how NFL executives currently view the Texans quarterback.
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00:00But we're going to get a little analytical here.
00:02I know that you love when we get a little analytical.
00:05Not really, but go ahead.
00:05Yep, yep, yep, yep.
00:06And that's because I will bring up Bill Barnwell of ESPN.
00:10Hey, to be fair, I brought up Bill Barnwell today.
00:13You did.
00:13I did.
00:14You did.
00:14But I am fond of him because he's one of the sports dorks.
00:18He's one of the football dorks.
00:20He does a good job of it, though.
00:22And with all due respect, this is probably an unfair place to go.
00:24You look at Bill Barnwell and you go, what a dork.
00:27Yep.
00:27But he does a great job of it.
00:28Like, a good analysis on football.
00:30And he does this yearly thing where he accounts for what is the hypothetical trade value of these various folks
00:36in the NFL.
00:38And this has become a little bit less hypothetical as we've seen big-time players move recently.
00:43The likes of Miles Garrett, Michael Parsons.
00:45Like, we've seen big-time players get traded.
00:48And so this becomes a lot more interesting.
00:50And it becomes even more interesting here in Houston when you think about the big-time player that has people
00:56kind of a little split.
00:57And C.J. Stroud.
00:59And so I'd like to get into some of this.
01:02Would you like to do – how would you like to go about this?
01:05Well, here's what I want to do.
01:06I brought this up, the Bill Barnwell thing, before the show with you and Figgy.
01:10Not because Bill Barnwell, analytics and data and dork, but because it turned into basically a segment.
01:17Bill Barnwell wrote a segment on C.J. Stroud.
01:21It was supposed to be, you know, the draft value, the trade values of particular players.
01:28Right, like, for instance, I think the highest trade value that I noted was quarterback Josh Allen.
01:34According to Bill Barnwell, and it's not just him off the top of his head.
01:38He tries to do some research and tries to figure it out.
01:40He says that if you wanted Josh Allen and you wanted to make this happen, you would have to procure
01:45–
01:45or you'd have to put up seven first-round picks or seven first-round pick values, right?
01:48We saw Jared Verge go back in the Miles Garrett trade.
01:51They viewed that as a first-round pick.
01:52Yeah.
01:52Which, that is absurd to think about, right?
01:55Josh Allen.
01:55Cleveland, you know what to do.
01:58Go ahead and do it.
01:59You know what to do.
02:02Mortgage the house.
02:04When they inevitably upset Joe Burrow.
02:07The line has been drawn.
02:08That's right.
02:09That's right.
02:10In fact, Joe Burrow, four first-round picks, according to Bill Barnwell.
02:13So you get the idea, right?
02:14Like, this is what we're looking at.
02:16That's actually not too bad compared to what the Browns did.
02:19Yeah, I think the issue there is, like, the injuries that have popped up when you come
02:23to Joe Burrow, I imagine, is part of this, that availability.
02:26But now, of course, we get to the main event for here in Houston.
02:30The Houston Texans and the players that they have.
02:33The top tier that they establish is two first-round picks and more.
02:36Obviously, like, you know, add a third-round pick or a fifth-round pick or whatever to help
02:39juice this up.
02:40Will Anderson Jr., he says two first-round picks and more.
02:44I think that's fair.
02:48We have the best defensive player in the league.
02:50Like, the best non-quarterback.
02:51Like, these are things that he very reasonably can be discussed about in that place.
02:56And then, quarterback CJ Stroud, two first-round picks and more.
03:00And, like, the conversation of this, first and foremost, of, like, the value, I think
03:05it's fair.
03:06Like, I think it's a fair conversation of the value because of what happens afterwards.
03:10He said that, he started talking about CJ Stroud, and he said that he asked a handful
03:14of people around the league.
03:16Okay, real quick.
03:16This is the part.
03:17Yes.
03:18Because generally, I'm like, I'm scrolling through here.
03:20I'm like, okay, that's it.
03:21I'm just interested.
03:22You know, what are the values of these guys?
03:23And then you want to see, like, okay, what's the reasoning behind this?
03:25But then it turned into, like, you know, an opinion piece, basically.
03:30And, I mean, if you're doing this, you want to give the opinion on why that's the case.
03:32No, I understand that.
03:33But this is the part where it just kind of raised the eyebrows.
03:36Go ahead.
03:37I take you into a segment that I like to call reading.
03:39Bill Barnwell said, I asked a handful of people around the league about Stroud and his potential
03:43trade value if the Texans choose to not sign him to a long-term contract, and generally
03:48got two responses.
03:49One was an immediate response that he is still a really valuable quarterback.
03:54The other was a long pause and a sigh before something far less confident came out of the
04:00other person's mouth.
04:01Quote, I'm glad it's not my problem, is what I heard from one team that already has its
04:08quarterback under contract.
04:09I'm glad it's not my problem.
04:11And that's where I went, man, this is not, you know, a talk radio thing, a fan thing.
04:18It's a Texans thing.
04:20It's an NFL thing.
04:22It's the executives, you know, basically out there saying, and it's really interesting
04:27to him, too, because the first response that he got was like, yes, he's really valuable.
04:33Not, we would love to have him, not that they could or would or whatever at this point,
04:38but it's like, yes, he's a valuable asset because they see what we see.
04:41Right.
04:41I think some of this is also still within the context of if you were having to trade
04:46him or if you were, like, it's trying to be in the attempt to acquire him.
04:51So I don't know that the GMs or the executives that he spoke to are thinking about this in
04:56the thought process of just, hey, man, how good do you think he is as a quarterback?
05:00I think it's more towards the context of what do you think the value is?
05:03And it's worth noting, that's not one person, right?
05:05I don't know how many people it is, but he said there is a split.
05:08I think he said a handful.
05:09Yeah, he said it's a split amongst the people that he asked.
05:11I don't know if that is to intimate that it was a 50-50 split or anything near that
05:14or if it was one way or the other, but there's still people around this league that look up
05:19and go, C.J. Stroud, without even thinking, very valuable.
05:23That is the place that I land, right?
05:25It's the reason why I don't look at this season and go, all of the pressure is on C.J.
05:29Stroud.
05:30Yes, if we're talking about in the context of here in Houston, he's going to be somewhere
05:33playing football, as evidenced by this.
05:35Like, there's people that make these decisions that go, you know, he's still valuable.
05:38What are you talking about?
05:39Like, I would, you know, either, I know that I would ask for a lot for him
05:43or I would give up a lot for him to acquire his services.
05:45And that is right this moment before we see the next year.
05:48But there are some people that go, I'm glad it's not my problem.
05:51I'm glad it's not my problem.
05:52What do you think that that means?
05:53Because I don't know that that means exactly like the straight, I guess, juxtaposition of,
05:58yeah, absolutely.
05:59I don't think it means no, not at all.
06:01Because of the uncertainty.
06:02And in fact, he said so.
06:03Well, I'll read from here.
06:04Ah, you get to play a segment that I like from here.
06:07Because this is, I think this next comment from Barnwell is a direct result of the conversations
06:14that he had with the people that said, I'm glad it's not my problem or the person.
06:18It's also fair to wonder if Stroud will ever be able to meaningfully build on his rookie season.
06:24And then he goes on later, and it says, it's unclear whether the 24-year-old really has
06:29the sort of elite-level ceiling he hinted toward as a rookie.
06:33Teams would still want to have Stroud on their roster, but him on a rookie deal is very different
06:39than him on a contract north of $60 million per year.
06:43Hence, I'm glad it's not my problem.
06:45Sure.
06:45Yeah, yeah.
06:46No, that's an absolutely fair point to bring up is that that concern is there.
06:49It's the thing that we're talking about here.
06:51I have, me personally, right, I have less of that concern that the high-end is there.
06:56It's, do you get that?
06:57$60 million, though, man.
06:58And that's where we start getting to.
07:00Yeah.
07:02I continue to lean on the idea of how often have we seen someone demonstrate that there
07:06is that high-end that was intimated, or at least that you felt like you were getting
07:10to in 2023 with CJ, and then it just doesn't happen.
07:13And the most recent example I can think of is like Carson Wentz.
07:18Maybe you go to Deshaun Watson, but I think you feel probably more, a little bit more
07:23complicated factors in there.
07:24Yes, had mitigating factors, but we did see it.
07:28I mean, that part is fair, the comparison, like him as a young player versus CJ Stroud.
07:33We did see it.
07:34His fell off for different reasons.
07:36One would imagine, 100%.
07:38Carson Wentz.
07:39I think one of the things that I do where I go, this is separated from CJ Stroud, is the
07:43circumstance.
07:43I firmly believe that in the NFL, the stance matters to a great deal, in fact, a greater
07:50degree than we often give it credit for.
07:51And if we're comparing the circumstances of what the Eagles put around Carson Wentz and
07:55what the Texans put around CJ Stroud, it's night and day.
07:58And so the thing that that brings me back to is, if he's in a better circumstance, CJ
08:03Stroud will deliver.
08:03I mean, hell, even last year, if you're looking at this, they marginally improved the circumstance,
08:08and the floor was raised greatly.
08:10Now, I know that that's not what you want to hear, because the thing that we're most
08:13concerned about is the ceiling.
08:14Yeah, yeah.
08:15And I think that there's reasons that we could point to around this team where we go, okay,
08:19this is why we did not start seeing the ceiling, including just the general way that they're
08:23going about this.
08:24But I don't line up with those executives, but it's hard to deny that those executives are
08:29there and saying this.
08:30Yeah.
08:30And that's a fair point of view to have on this.
08:32No, it's absolutely.
08:33And you talk about, you know, the circumstance.
08:36The circumstance, then you have to ask the question, because of what we've talked about
08:40often, is that circumstance here?
08:42And maybe the circumstance is the reason some general managers say, oh, yeah, you know,
08:47there's really, how did they put it, there really is something there, or however they
08:51put it, oh, here it is right here.
08:54He's still really a valuable quarterback, a really valuable quarterback.
08:57I think those people who are saying that know that, or at least I think, they know that
09:03the circumstance is not ideal for him here.
09:05So then you get into a whole other conversation.
09:07Yes, he's really valuable.
09:09I'm glad it's not my problem.
09:11Who knows about the circumstance?
09:13And is Houston the best one for him, you know, given what they run, given how they surround
09:18him?
09:18And that's a very interesting conversation to have to have, and that's the one that the
09:22Texans have been going through at this moment.
09:24I was, if we're talking about stuff, I was reading the FTN fantasy almanac for, you know,
09:33this season, particularly as it relates to the Houston Texans.
09:36And so much, I mean, the first couple of pages of their conversation about the Houston Texans
09:44exclusively focused on CJ Stroud and the ways that this offense impacted him.
09:49And one of the things that it points to is just the floor that you saw for him was indeed
09:53higher than the year prior.
09:55The ceiling, though, was similar to the year prior.
09:59And how much, the question I ask myself is how much of that do you put on CJ himself and
10:04how much of that do you put on the system and the inability to create those opportunities
10:11and the talent that is around, right?
10:13And I know that you are still looking at the wide receiver room and going, is this what
10:17you have to go for?
10:19I saw someone talking about this and I wanted to throw this up here in the context just to
10:23kind of flesh out the conversation.
10:25How much do you look at this and go, this is a conversation about if a quarterback needs
10:32too much that he's not worthwhile?
10:34Or not the level of quarterback that you imagine?
10:37I don't put a lot in that.
10:40Because of what we know we've seen from him and the floor that it is now, we know what his
10:47abilities are.
10:48So I don't think it's necessarily about the pieces that you put around him as much as
10:53the system and the coaching and the play calling.
10:56I believe that for a good two years now.
11:00Yeah.
11:01Yeah.
11:01And I tend to believe that.
11:03Like this, this, and just comparison value.
11:05Someone asked, what is a...
11:07We've had Barnwell placed on like Patrick Mahomes.
11:10Patrick Mahomes, seven first round picks.
11:12And again, you understand why, like that is, there's no doubt in your mind that he can
11:16come in and like impact what you're doing.
11:19Pretty much, I don't want to say regardless, because we have seen instances where the Chiefs
11:22did not have him situated well, and you see the ways in which that caps what you're capable
11:27of doing.
11:27But the ceiling, clearly there.
11:30Fernando Mendoza, four first round picks.
11:32Or sorry, three first round picks.
11:34What you got?
11:35And how much of that is just like the upside of, I have no idea.
11:38And rookie contract.
11:39Right, rookie contract, those things.
11:40But yeah, I am fascinated to see that this is not just a split amongst the people that
11:46are talking, you know, at the water cooler, and the people that are talking at the bar.
11:50No, these are NFL executives.
11:52And just to further, you know, kind of put that home, this is Jeremy Fowler talking about
11:58his exercise.
11:59You know, he's been doing the top 10 at various different positions, and again, talking to
12:03executives and decision makers.
12:05This is what he found in regards to C.J. Stroud.
12:07You know, I didn't get enough responses on C.J. Stroud to get a ton of feedback, because
12:12he really just wasn't a factor in the voting.
12:13But I think with Stroud, it's...
12:16And maybe that's the point of it, that you didn't get responses.
12:19That says a lot.
12:20Yeah, kind of.
12:21I mean, honestly, I think he got one vote, I want to say.
12:23It just wasn't a factor.
12:25But the ability's there.
12:27You know, what happened last year, especially in the playoffs, it's certainly a concern.
12:31You know, some people wonder, like, okay, is that a byproduct of something that was going
12:35on behind the scenes all year, or just wasn't comfortable in the offense?
12:38I know it was raining that day, and New England played well, but some of the decisions were
12:41odd.
12:43It's funny, though.
12:44He has a chance to be a fast riser, because they're there.
12:48And you talk about quarterbacks being able to throw over the middle of the field with accuracy.
12:53He can do some of those things, where some of the quarterbacks ahead of him aren't as
12:56good.
12:57So I don't necessarily think, like, people are really down on him, or he's not a starter,
13:01or his job's on the line.
13:03I don't feel like it's that.
13:05It's just maybe more of a little indifference.
13:07I just didn't get a lot of responses on him.
13:10If everyone seems to agree, and everyone does seem to agree, the tools are there.
13:15The ability is there.
13:17Correct.
13:17Then it's one of either two things.
13:19It's C.J. Stroud between the ears, or it's the system that is around him.
13:24We all, I mean, there you go.
13:26You just heard it.
13:27But I think most everyone agrees.
13:29Oh, it's there.
13:31Well, then, it's one of two things.
13:33It's him between the ears, or it's that system is not right for him.
13:36And I hate to say this, because this is generally the way I think about a lot of things.
13:41I don't think it's one or the other, but I think it's more of one than the other.
13:44And if I'm guessing, or if I'm throwing up my, I guess, educated guess, I think this
13:49is very much more the circumstances that are put around him.
13:52And again, I am buying into the stock on C.J. Stroud.
13:56You're talking about the analysis of executives, and even in that one answer, going back to
14:00Bill Barnwell, trade value, there's people that are like, I'm glad it's not my problem.
14:04The reason why it would be an issue if it was their problem is not that, hey, no, this
14:07is not a guy that he doesn't deserve, or he's not good at all.
14:11It's just having to figure that out.
14:13And money.
14:14And the money of it.
14:16It's in there.
14:17Like, I just, I firmly believe that it's in there for C.J. Stroud.
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