Ukraine is turning Russia’s own air-war strategy against it. In this video, we examine how Ukrainian fighter pairs are escorting glide-bomb missions, the role of F-16s and AIM-120 missiles, and why future Gripen fighters armed with Meteor missiles could reshape the balance in the skies. We also explore the R-37M threat, new Ukrainian glide bombs, Western military aid, and what these developments could mean for the next phase of the war.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Russia Glide Bombs Exploit 10-to-1 Aerial Advantage
02:03 - Ukraine F-16 Escort Tactic Deploys AIM-120 AMRAAM
04:57 - Russia R-37M Missile Targets Ukraine F-16 Jets
07:37 - Sweden Gripen Jets Boost Ukraine With Meteor Missiles
12:33 - Ukraine Receives 53 Belgium F-16 Fighter Jets
16:06 - Can Ukraine AGM-188 Rusty Dagger Strike Inside Russia?
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SOURCES / ATTRIBUTIONS: https://pastebin.com/pqWWAuJt
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Russia Glide Bombs Exploit 10-to-1 Aerial Advantage
02:03 - Ukraine F-16 Escort Tactic Deploys AIM-120 AMRAAM
04:57 - Russia R-37M Missile Targets Ukraine F-16 Jets
07:37 - Sweden Gripen Jets Boost Ukraine With Meteor Missiles
12:33 - Ukraine Receives 53 Belgium F-16 Fighter Jets
16:06 - Can Ukraine AGM-188 Rusty Dagger Strike Inside Russia?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES / ATTRIBUTIONS: https://pastebin.com/pqWWAuJt
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NewsTranscript
00:00For over four years now, we've watched Russia do something bad for most of that time Ukraine
00:05simply couldn't answer.
00:07The tactic was fairly simple and yet devastating.
00:10A Russian Su-34 would climb to somewhere safe behind the front line, then release a fat
00:15glide bomb, a fancy term for a Soviet-era unguided bomb fitted with pop-out wings and
00:20a satellite navigation kit.
00:22The bomb would sail between 50 and 70 kilometers onto Ukrainian positions, hopefully on track
00:28toward its intended target.
00:30But while that bomber would do its work, a second Russian jet, usually a Su-35, orbited
00:36higher and farther back, watching the sky, ready to punish any Ukrainian fighter that
00:41tries to interfere.
00:42The bomber bombs, the escort guards.
00:45This division of labor was helped by the fact that Russia maintained an extreme numerical
00:50advantage in terms of how many aircraft it fielded.
00:53At the start of the war, the record was 10 to 1 in Russia's favor.
00:57The most reliable sources suggested Russia had between 1,300 and 1,400 aircraft, while
01:04Ukraine had only 120 or so fighters at its disposal.
01:08And this has let Russia pulverize the Ukrainian side of the front line region with thousands
01:13of guided bombs every single month.
01:16Ukraine's response to that was, for the longest time, limited to using its existing anti-air
01:21systems as well as donations from the West.
01:23In most extreme cases, it would inevitably have to send some donated aircraft like the
01:29Mirage 2000s and F-16s into the sky to destroy as many glide bombs as possible, or provide
01:35at least a deterrent.
01:36But by mid-2026, Ukraine had started having more options, and one of the most ingenious
01:42ones is that they've thrown the ball back in Russia's court by doing the same thing.
01:46Ukraine has taken the very same playbook that's been used to grind it down, copied it almost
01:51move for move, and pointed it back across the line.
01:54So let's discuss how this tactic actually works, why Ukraine couldn't really use it until
02:00recently, and why it's about to become a far bigger problem for Moscow than it already
02:04is.
02:05Now let's elaborate a bit on the tactic itself, because the description we have of it comes
02:09from an unusual place.
02:11The account was published in late June 2026, and reportedly traces back to a Russian telegram
02:17channel that goes by the name The Commander Speaks, or Voivoda Broadcasts, which could have
02:22close ties to the Russian air force.
02:24That provenance matters, because a Russian military blogger describing Ukrainian tactics
02:30has every reason to frame them in a particular way, badly.
02:33And yet, what we're seeing here aligns with Western analyses and predictions, meaning that
02:39it has more hallmarks of being proven true.
02:41Here's how it works.
02:43Ukrainian warplanes go out in pairs.
02:46One jet flies low and fast toward the target, carrying a payload of precision glide bombs aiming
02:51to hit Russian forces in or near the grey zone.
02:54As it nears its release point, it pulls up sharply into a climb.
02:58The climb is due to physics, since a glide bomb has no engine.
03:01The higher and faster you are when you let it go, the more kinetic energy it carries, and
03:06the farther it flies before gravity brings it down.
03:09So the bomber keeps low to stay under the radar horizon, then zooms up at the last moment
03:14to fling its bombs as far as possible.
03:17The physics behind it match what Russia has been using, at least so far.
03:21But the problem with that climb is that it exposes you.
03:24A jet hugging the terrain is hard to see and hard to shoot.
03:28The moment it rises to lob its bombs, it lights up on the Russian radar, and that's exactly
03:33when a Russian fighter on patrol might pounce.
03:35This is where the second Ukrainian jet earns its keep.
03:38The second aircraft, which is usually an F-16, sits back at a distance and higher up, holding
03:44an air-to-air missile ready.
03:46If a Russian Su-35 or Su-30 lunges toward the bomber, the escort launches.
03:51In the F-16's case, that missile is the American AIM-120 AMRAAM.
03:57Now that AMRAAM might not actually shoot the Russian jet down.
04:01The ranges in this war are long, the Russian fighters are fast, and a missile fired this
04:06way is usually meant to force a reaction rather than to score a kill.
04:10But forcing a reaction is the entire point, and often enough.
04:14A Russian pilot who sees an AMRAAM streaking toward him has to break off, dump his intercept,
04:19and take evasive action.
04:21In those few seconds, the Ukrainian bomber has already dropped its load and is running
04:25for home.
04:26The Russian source also pivoted to Ukrainian pilots' situational awareness, noting that
04:31the moment Russian fighters launch, the Ukrainians abort and flee the battlefield.
04:35The evading Russian might get a hasty shot off with an R-37 or R-77 of his own, but
04:41by
04:41then, the Ukrainians are usually already speeding away and tracking that missile the whole time.
04:47So the escort tactic at this stage is not really about winning dogfights, but about buying
04:52the bomber a clean release and a clean exit.
04:55And to understand why Ukraine needs that shield so badly, we have to talk about the single
05:00weapon that has shaped the air war over Ukraine more than any other.
05:03That weapon is the R-37M, and it's the reason Ukrainian pilots have spent the better part
05:10of this war flying with their bellies, almost scraping the treetops.
05:14The R-37M is a Russian long-range air-to-air missile, carried by the MiG-31BM interceptor,
05:21and increasingly by the Su-35 and Su-57.
05:25Depending on the source and the variant, its range is given as anywhere from 150 to 400 kilometers,
05:31and it flies at something like five to six times the speed of sound.
05:35Now, those headline numbers deserve a heavy dose of caution.
05:39The 300 to 400 kilometer figure assumes a high-flying launch from a MiG-31 with its powerful
05:45radar.
05:46But the missile here is fired from a Su-35 with a smaller radar, so its practical reach
05:51is considerably shorter.
05:53The export version, the RVVBD, is advertised at up to 200 kilometers and is likely more
05:59in line with what the missile actually accomplishes.
06:02But even the conservative end of that range is far longer than anything Ukraine could shoot
06:06back with for most of the war.
06:08The London-based Royal United Services Institute reported that as far back as October 2022,
06:15Russia was firing up to six R-37Ms a day at the Ukrainian Air Force.
06:20Ukrainian pilots have told reporters the missile rarely scores a clean kill, but that almost
06:26misses the point.
06:27Its job is not necessarily to destroy, but to deter Ukraine from deploying its own aircraft.
06:32Simply trying to mount a defense at a high altitude can be potentially fatal when facing long-range
06:38air-to-air missiles, making the simple act of climbing a potentially deadly decision.
06:44The result was that its MiG-29 and Su-27 pilots were forced down to altitudes where they could
06:50use terrain and ground clutter to hide from Russian radar and missile seekers.
06:55Down there, they were safer from the R-37M, but now vulnerable to ground fire and to the
07:00very Russian glide bombers they were trying to stop.
07:03Ukraine has already had a casualty as a result of this.
07:06In mid-May 2026, Russian aviation telegram channels claimed that a Su-35 has shot down a
07:13Ukrainian F-16 near Sumy using a long-range R-37 series missile.
07:18If this is true, it would be the first time a Ukrainian F-16 was lost in air-to-air
07:23combat
07:23rather than to ground fire or accident.
07:26That alone tells you about the potential danger of the R-37M in a place where simply being detected
07:32can get you killed.
07:33That's the threat the escort tactic is trying to manage.
07:37Which brings us back to the missiles in Ukrainian hands and to the arithmetic of who can hit whom
07:42from how far.
07:44The F-16 is, in mid-2026, the best escort Ukraine has.
07:49It carries a modern radar, capable electronic warfare gear, and the AIM-120, which belongs
07:55to a family of similar yet vastly different missiles.
07:58Older variants reach out to roughly 75 kilometers, while the newest version Ukraine is reported
08:03to field, Ukraine's AIM-120C-8 stretches that out toward 160.
08:09That's a serious weapon, but the Russian channel also noted that Ukraine doesn't always have
08:14an F-16 to spare, so it improvises, mixing and matching.
08:18A Soviet-era Su-27 flying top cover for a MiG-29, both leaning on the old R-27 missile,
08:25or even a Su-27 covering another Su-27.
08:29The R-27 is a much shorter range, much older weapon, which tells you how much Ukraine is
08:35making to do with what it has.
08:37And we have to go back to the statistics from the beginning of this report.
08:40Despite this tactic, Russia still has more bombers and more fighters in the sky over
08:45the grey zone, and it still drops far more bombs.
08:48There is no aerial parity here, not yet.
08:51Instead, Ukraine has finally found a way to contest airspace it previously had to completely
08:56concede.
08:56So the tactic is the workaround, and the thing that could turn the workaround into something
09:01genuinely decisive is a missile that finally outranges the problem.
09:06And it turns out that such a missile is on its way.
09:09It comes aboard the Saab JAS-39 Gripen.
09:13In late May 2026, Sweden and Ukraine announced the largest Western fighter package Ukraine has
09:19ever secured, where Sweden will donate up to 16 of its in-service Gripen C and D jets,
09:25with the first expected to arrive in early 2027.
09:28While Ukraine intends to buy up to 20 new-build Gripen E and F fighters, financed with €2.5
09:34billion, or about $2.8 billion from a European Union loan, with deliveries projected from 2030.
09:42All of that sits under a letter of intent signed in October 2025, leaving the door open to a fleet
09:48of between 100 and 150 aircraft.
09:51Sweden has been explicit that the package also includes advanced air-to-air weaponry like the
09:56Iris T, AMRAAM, and crucially, the Meteor.
10:00The Meteor is the piece that matters most with the story we're telling.
10:03Instead of a rocket motor that burns out in seconds and leaves the missile coasting, the
10:08Meteor uses a throttable ramjet that keeps producing thrust.
10:12That gives it a much larger no-escape zone at long range.
10:15Saab officially lists its reach as more than 100 kilometers and reports it as possible 200
10:21kilometers.
10:22The International Institute for Strategic Studies has also referred to the Meteor as
10:27the most capable air-to-air missile currently in service on Western combat aircraft.
10:31But here's why that flips the escort tactic.
10:35Out of the missiles available to Ukraine, only the Meteor has the effective range to genuinely
10:39threaten a Su-34 launching glide bombs from 60 to 100 kilometers behind the front line.
10:46The AMRAAMs on the F-16s and the Mika missiles on Ukraine's French Mirage 2000s simply
10:51lack that reach under real front line conditions.
10:54In practice, if the Ukrainian escort fires an AMRAAM, it will mostly just spook the Russian
10:59fighter into breaking off.
11:01But if you put a Meteor on a Gripen flying that same top cover roll, and suddenly, the
11:05escort can reach out and actually kill the Russian bomber that's doing the glide bombing
11:09in the first place.
11:11Notably, the Meteor doesn't quite match the very longest reach of the R-37M, but it outdistances
11:17the old R-27, edges out even the newest AMRAAM, and matches the R-77.
11:22For an air force that has spent three years out range, that's a profound change.
11:27And the Gripen is also particularly important for Ukraine's predicament for reasons that
11:31go beyond the missile.
11:33It was designed during the Cold War to survive precisely the kind of war Ukraine is fighting.
11:38It can disperse off its main bases and operate from stretches of ordinary highway, with a
11:43small ground crew and quick turnarounds, on the assumption that Soviet missiles would
11:48crater its airfields on day one.
11:50The aircraft also plugs straight into NATO data links, and carries a more modern kind
11:55of radar and electronic warfare suite that the older donated F-16s don't.
11:59But a tactic like this one doesn't just need missiles alone.
12:03There are three vital parts here.
12:05Missiles to guard the bombers, jets to fly, and the actual bombs to drop.
12:09And what makes summer 2026 so important is that the stars have seemed to align for all
12:15of these to start arriving simultaneously.
12:17But before we delve into these, make sure to hit the subscribe button if you want to
12:21stay up to date with the military show.
12:23We post daily videos covering all the notable events in the war in Ukraine and beyond.
12:28Back to the trifecta of a successful escort mission, we first have the bombs.
12:33For most of the war, the glide bomb advantage was entirely Russia's.
12:37By early 2025, Russia was releasing around 3,500 glide bombs a month, well over 100 a day across
12:44the front.
12:45The monthly total hit a record of more than 5,700 in January 2026, and Russia likely dropped
12:52on the order of 85,000 of these bombs in 2024 and 2025 alone, where it has also planned to
12:59manufacture 120,000 of them in 2025.
13:02The kits themselves are almost crudely cheap, somewhere around $20,000 a piece, which is
13:08exactly why Russia can afford to throw them in such numbers.
13:12Ukraine can't match that volume, given that most of its military industry is based on drones.
13:17But it no longer has to start from zero.
13:20It's been receiving American glide bombs, including extended-range JDAMs.
13:24And in May 2026, Ukraine unveiled its first domestically developed glide bomb, carrying a roughly
13:30250 kg warhead into combat use through the Brave One Defense Tech hub.
13:36More Ukrainian bombers carrying more Ukrainian bombs means more sorties that need escorting,
13:41which is precisely why the pair tactic is emerging in 2026 and not a year ago.
13:47Second, the missiles.
13:49An escort is only as good as the weapon it carries, and Ukraine's allies are topping it up.
13:53In mid-June 2026, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Germany would hand
14:00over an undisclosed three-digit number of air-to-air missiles from its own stockpiles,
14:05on top of fresh IRIS-T air defense systems, a $400 million contribution toward air defense
14:10ammunition for Ukraine, and another $200 million for Pact-3 Patriot interceptor missiles under
14:17NATO-backed procurement initiatives.
14:19Pistorius didn't specify which missiles, but the obvious candidates are the AIM-9 and
14:24AIM-120 that arm Ukraine's F-16s today, or the IRIS-T and Meteor rounds that will
14:30arm the Grippens tomorrow.
14:31Either way, it's the ammunition the escort tactic literally can't function without, delivered
14:36at the moment Ukraine is starting to use it in earnest.
14:40Third, the jets.
14:41This is where Belgium enters the picture, and the commitment is larger than it first appears.
14:46Belgium has outlined a plan to hand its entire F-16 fleet of 53 aircraft to Ukraine by 2029,
14:53as it transitions to the F-35.
14:56The schedule included seven jets in 2026, of which three would fly, and four would be
15:01stripped for spares, then five more in 2027, 14 in 2028, and 27 in 2029.
15:09That's on top of the F-16s already pledged by the Netherlands, which has committed 24,
15:14Denmark with 19, and Norway with six.
15:17Belgium's contribution alone would make it one of the largest single donors of the entire
15:21coalition.
15:22There's just one catch here.
15:24Belgium is only sending its aircraft contingent on it, receiving the newer F-35s it ordered.
15:29But those F-35s have run late, and most of the jets won't come until the end of the decade.
15:35Norway's six F-16s have reportedly not all reached Ukraine as of April 2026, with some
15:41still being refurbished in Belgium and others delivered in pieces.
15:45Donated fighters are often decades old and need months or years of inspection and overhaul
15:50before they can fly in combat.
15:52And Ukraine has already confirmed the loss of three F-16s in the war.
15:56So, while Ukraine is getting a Western fighter force, it's a gradual improvement rather than
16:01an explosive procurement overnight.
16:03And while this tactic should work great for the contested grey zone, Ukraine might not need
16:08to solely remain in it for long.
16:10In June 2026, a Russian military-affiliated Telegram channel claimed that Ukraine had used
16:16a new American-supplied missile, the AGM-188 Rusty Dagger, to strike a semiconductor plant called
16:23Suborka in the Russian city of Vyronyech.
16:26As with the other Russian source claims, this hasn't been confirmed by Kyiv or Washington.
16:31But the weapon itself is notable.
16:33The Rusty Dagger is the product of a US Air Force program called E-RAM, the Extended Range
16:39Attack Munition, which was launched in early 2024 with an unusually blunt primary purpose,
16:45giving Ukraine an affordable, mass-producible long-range strike weapon, and doing so faster
16:50than traditional procurement timelines would imply.
16:53The missile is a hybrid between a cruise missile and a guided bomb, sized to fit the same envelope
16:59as a standard 220-kilogram MK-82 bomb.
17:03In principle, any aircraft that can carry that bomb can carry the missile.
17:07The big part here is the reported range, which is supposedly more than 930 kilometers when
17:13using a more modest 45-kilogram warhead.
17:15The first production batch of 840 missiles was actually slated for delivery in October
17:212026, with Ukraine cleared to buy up to 3,350 of them in total.
17:27So the debut in June 2026 implies that some number of missiles have already reached Ukraine
17:33and are likely being field-tested on actual targets.
17:36The shape and size of the missile are also key.
17:39If it fits any JDAM-capable aircraft, a single squadron of 12 F-16s could deploy as many to
17:45144 of these missiles in one sortie.
17:49That's the same flexible platform thinking that underpins the escort tactic, just scaled
17:54up from the contested zone to deep inside Russia.
17:57The F-16 and the Gripen could quickly become Swiss Army aircraft, a glide-bomb deployer, a missile-armed
18:03escort, and a long-range cruise missile launcher, depending on what's needed at a given time.
18:08None of this means Ukraine has won the air war just yet.
18:11Russia still has the largest air force, the biggest stockpile of bombs, and the longest-range
18:16missile on the board.
18:17The Gripen's are years from arriving in numbers.
18:20But the key is that all of these parts are finally being assembled, and Ukraine already has a
18:25field manual on how to execute the tactic and has been working relentlessly to perfect
18:30it.
18:30So once all these parts arrive, it can make more headlines.
18:34Now, if you want to learn more about the Gripen's and how they started flying over Ukraine, check
18:39out this video and make sure to subscribe to the military show so you can stay up to date
18:44with the most recent developments.
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