Russia’s fuel crisis has spiraled into a nationwide emergency. Ukrainian drone strikes on key oil refineries have disrupted fuel supplies across nearly every Russian region, triggering shortages, long queues, violent confrontations, and growing public frustration. With exports halted, repairs falling behind, and even portable toilets appearing at gas stations, the crisis is exposing serious cracks in Russia’s wartime infrastructure. In this video, we examine what’s driving the shortages, how Ukraine’s strategy is reshaping the conflict, and what it could mean for Russia’s future.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Russia Fuel Shortage Hits 83 Regions
02:44 - Ukraine Drone Strikes Cut 42% Russia Refining
04:07 - Putin Admits Russian Fuel Shortage Crisis
05:15 - Why 2026 Russian Fuel Crisis Is Worse
08:38 - Russian Gas Station Fights Over Fuel Shortages
11:02 - Will the Russian Fuel Crisis Trigger an Uprising?
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/VMqTHemK
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Russia Fuel Shortage Hits 83 Regions
02:44 - Ukraine Drone Strikes Cut 42% Russia Refining
04:07 - Putin Admits Russian Fuel Shortage Crisis
05:15 - Why 2026 Russian Fuel Crisis Is Worse
08:38 - Russian Gas Station Fights Over Fuel Shortages
11:02 - Will the Russian Fuel Crisis Trigger an Uprising?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/VMqTHemK
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NewsTranscript
00:00We are a month deep into the Russia fuel crisis, and things are starting to get out of hand.
00:06What started as shortages in Crimea has bled over to almost all of Russia's 83 regions.
00:14Those regions are on their knees. The pumps are empty, the people are pissed,
00:18and Ukraine's non-stop campaign against Russian oil is now so massive that it's triggering
00:24violence all over Russia. But that's not all. Russia is running out of fuel, but portable
00:30toilet manufacturers look set to make a fortune. Stick with us and we'll explain why.
00:36But first, the big news. In a July 6th piece, CNN breaks down what's happening all over Russia right
00:42now. Almost every single one of Russia's 83 regions is now being racked by gasoline shortages, or at the
00:49very least, reporting disruptions to fuel supplies, amidst a devastating Ukrainian campaign against
00:55Russia's oil refineries. Those refineries are responsible for turning crude oil into gasoline,
01:01diesel, aviation fuel, and so much more, and Ukraine just won't stop hitting them.
01:07June alone saw Ukraine conduct 11 long-range strikes against Russian refineries, with drones
01:12traveling as far as 2,000 kilometers into Russia to leave fuel burning and key refining tools
01:19shattered. That killer month comes on the back of a year's worth of constant and repeated strikes,
01:24and Russia is now feeling the pain. What started as a shortage in Crimea, prompted both by the
01:30refinery strikes and a logistical lockdown campaign in which Ukraine has been taking out fuel trucks by
01:35the hundreds in the occupied territories, has become a nationwide crisis for Russia.
01:40States of emergency have been declared. Fuel bans for everybody except military and emergency
01:46service personnel are in place in some regions. Across all 11 time zones in Russia, there is nobody
01:52who is completely untouched by a shortage of the one thing that Russia relies on to keep its war going.
01:58The sheer scale of this problem is a catastrophe for Russia, and it's causing a whole raft of issues
02:05beyond Russian people not being able to fill their gas tanks. CNN's conclusions come from an analysis of
02:11statements delivered by regional mayors and governors, along with poring through media reports.
02:17The outlet has found that more than 50 of Russia's regions are officially reporting that they are
02:21struggling with fuel supplies. So how did CNN get to almost 83? There are unofficial reports from the
02:28other regions that shortages are hitting them. Only the mayors and governors are trying to keep
02:32everything hush-hush. How very Russian. Pretend there isn't a problem as the queues get larger and the
02:38crisis expands. Russia is running on empty right now, and the problem is only getting worse as time
02:44goes on and more of Ukraine's drones find their marks. According to the Saratoga Foundation,
02:49Ukraine's general staff reported in early July that its non-stop drone campaign has knocked out
02:5542% of Russia's refining capacity. This, in turn, has cost Russia $13.5 billion in losses since
03:04August 2025, the outlet says, with those losses likely linked to Russia not being able to export
03:10fuel products because they're burning in the refineries. The Center for European Policy Analysis,
03:15or SEPA, paints a slightly better picture for Russia, though it's still far from good.
03:20It says that Russia's refining capacity is 28% less than in previous years, but the numbers are dropping
03:26every month. By the end of March, Russia's refined oil output stood at around 5.2 million barrels,
03:32SEPA says. By April, that number had fallen by 13% with 700,000 barrels cut from the monthly figures.
03:40Right now, SEPA adds, Russia's refineries simply aren't producing enough fuel to meet demand.
03:45That demand peaks in the summer, as Russia needs 110,000 tons of gasoline per day
03:50to supply its people. Russia isn't making that much. It's stuck on 85,000 tons, which is a 25,000
03:58tonne shortfall that goes a long way toward explaining the crisis that is spreading all
04:03over Russia right now. What's happening in Russia is so bad that Putin has been forced to do something
04:08that he never does. Admit that there's a problem. Toward the end of June, as queues piled up at the
04:14gas stations and Russians in all regions over the country could see their refineries burning,
04:19Putin acknowledged that Russian people might just be dealing with some issues.
04:23You're well aware that problems persist for both motorists and businesses, Putin said, adding,
04:29Unfortunately, there are still queues at petrol stations, and finding the right grade of petrol
04:33isn't always easy. Russia's leader even went so far as to admit that there were only a few days
04:37of supply left in Crimea, and that Ukraine's drone strikes were, obviously, creating problems.
04:43In most other nations, this kind of acknowledgement would be expected. Leaders are supposed to show
04:48that they're willing to confront problems. But in Russia, where Putin thrives by keeping his people
04:54in the dark, the fact that there is any sort of admission of a problem coming from the highest power
04:59in the Kremlin shows that Russia's fuel shortage is no minor thing. It's a full-blown crisis.
05:05And even as Putin claims that solutions are in the works, he knows that, in reality,
05:10he can't do much to stop Ukraine at this point.
05:13But hold on a second, you might be thinking. Wasn't there a fuel crisis in Russia in 2025, too?
05:19Russia managed to recover from that, so what makes the 2026 edition so serious?
05:24The fact that there is a 2026 edition at all is one of the biggest problems for Russia.
05:29What happened in 2025 wasn't a one-off. It's a repeatable strategy that Ukraine can use to bring
05:34the war that Putin started back home to the Russian people without having to resort to Putin's
05:39approach of committing war crimes against civilians with missile and drone attacks that target people
05:44rather than petrol. The fact that this is happening again is a sign to those in Russia that Putin
05:49utterly failed to solve the problems that led to the 2025 crisis in the first place.
05:55Great protector? More like feckless failure. But beyond that, there are some big differences
06:01between the 2025 fuel shortage and what's happening in 2026. As the Institute for the Study of War,
06:07or ISW points out, the 2025 shortage was similar to 2026, but far less severe. That crisis impacted
06:15at least 57 of Russia's 83 regions, rather than practically all of them, though it did expose the
06:22ineptitude of Russia's air defenses when it comes to dealing with Ukraine's drones.
06:26What we see here is a pattern of Putin underestimating Ukraine's capabilities and
06:31overestimating Russia's ability to defend itself, which makes the 2026 crisis an example
06:37of the Russian leader's inflated ego coming back to bite him in the rear.
06:42Another difference between 2025 and 2026 lies in the scale and persistence of Ukraine's approach.
06:48Both have intensified this year compared to last, which is why we're seeing the crisis spread wider
06:53than ever before. Sumit Retolia, who is the lead analyst for refining supply and modeling at
06:59Kepler, revealed that difference to CNN and also pointed out that Russia has a problem
07:03with repairing its damaged refinery equipment. Ukraine is winning the race. Drones strike so
07:10often that Russia can't get damaged equipment back online before the next drones arrive,
07:14leading to a compounding effect where every strike builds on the success of the last.
07:19Sanctions are making it harder for Russia to get its hands on crucial parts too,
07:23which means that equipment that might have been fixed in a matter of days sometimes requires weeks
07:28or even months to repent. All of this is going according to Ukraine's perfectly crafted plan.
07:35Striking refineries is great from the perspective of costing Russia billions of dollars in tax revenue
07:40that it would otherwise have used for the war. But more than that, Ukraine is testing the resolve
07:44of the Russian people each time a refinery is hit and fuel shortages are made worse. Every limit or ban
07:51imposed on fuel purchases is a needle jabbed into the side of the collective Russian people.
07:56As the queues grow large, anxiety rises. Sitting around for up to 18 hours waiting for fuel and
08:03not even getting enough to fill your tank will be enough to make anybody tetchy. Create that situation
08:09all over Russia and you have made a powder keg. That keg is already on the verge of exploding,
08:14violence is already erupting all over Russia, and the solutions that Russia is coming up with are
08:19all a bit crap, literally in one case. But before we dig deeper into all of that, this is a
08:25reminder
08:25that you are watching the military show. There is a lot more where this comes from,
08:29so make sure that you subscribe and hit the notification bell if you are getting value
08:33from our channel. So we said that the people are getting tetchy at Russia's gas stations.
08:39That may be an understatement. Fights and arguments are breaking out all over Russia as civilians are
08:44breaking under the pressure that Ukraine is creating at the pumps. Medusa reports on several
08:49of these instances. In Irkutsk, the outlet reports on a man named Vladimir Batoev who drove to a gas
08:55station and pushed into the front of the queue. A police officer at the gas station wasn't having any of
09:00it. A gun was drawn. Batoev was arrested, and now he faces criminal charges for reportedly getting
09:06violent with the arresting officers. There are so many more examples. In St. Petersburg,
09:11a fracas between two residents almost exploded to the point of being fatal. A resident pulled up to a
09:16free pump, only for another to tell him that he needed to leave. The other man, a taxi driver named
09:22Artush Miradian, kept arguing until the first driver drew a pistol. Not to be outdone, Miradian went to
09:28his taxi, grabbed a knife, and attacked the unnamed other driver. Over and over, we hear reports of
09:33similar instances all over Russia. In Ishevsk, a driver is reported to have dragged another motorist
09:39out of his car. A motorcyclist in Cheboksari has been pepper sprayed in the face after cutting the queue,
09:46and a woman has been attacked following an argument. Tata Stan saw a multi-person melee break out at a
09:51gas
09:51station near the region's border with Bashkort Stan. Over and over, we see frustration and anger boiling over,
09:58and these are just a handful of the many examples. There are even videos being shared on social media of
10:04arguments
10:04breaking out and violence erupting. F**k you, I'll smash your face in, screamed one woman during a heated
10:10argument in a gas station queue, as Russians are turning on each other, all due to Ukraine's brilliant
10:15refinery strategy. And it's hard to blame the frazzled Russian people for their reactions.
10:21There are reports of people driving around for literally days in search of fuel, and makeshift
10:26apps have even popped up that purport to point people in the direction of gas stations that still have fuel.
10:32Imagine using one of those apps, finding out the nearest station that has fuel is dozens of miles away,
10:37arriving only to wait in an hours-long queue, only to get to the pumps to discover that the fuel
10:42has run out.
10:43You'd flip your lid. And lids are being flipped all over Russia right now.
10:47That, as much as the money, will have Putin worried because anger among the population
10:52is usually something that the police state he has created can control.
10:55But such a widespread problem isn't easy to quell, though Russia is trying.
11:01Several solutions are being implemented to solve the Russian fuel crisis,
11:04and some are a little more… novel than others.
11:08Some of the solutions are the types of things that you would expect Russia to do
11:12when faced with a fuel crisis on such a massive scale.
11:15SEPA reports that Russia has already moved towards selling lower-grade fuel to its motorists,
11:20which was a move made back in August 2025, during the height of that year's crisis.
11:25Refineries are now allowed to produce Euro 3 gasoline, and even place it under the superior
11:30Euro 5 label. That lower-grade fuel has a sulfur content that is 15 times higher than the previously
11:36permitted level. Higher sulfur levels in the fuel lead to the production of more sulfur dioxide,
11:41which wears out engines and contributes to the type of air pollution that leads to acid rain.
11:47So a great solution there. Let Russian people ruin the cars they can barely run,
11:52and then raise the potential for them to suffer under acid rain that destroys forests and water
11:57supplies. Other solutions are designed to keep as much of the fuel that Russia produces inside the
12:02country. Gasoline exports have been banned until at least the end of July. Odds are that ban will be
12:09extended unless Russia is magically able to start producing more gasoline, despite its refineries
12:14burning. Russia has also banned jet fuel exports until the end of November, as it's also struggling
12:20to keep both military and commercial aviation running. And according to the Moscow Times,
12:25the Kremlin is also weighing up a ban on diesel exports, which would complete the trifecta for Ukraine.
12:31Every major fuel that Russia produces can no longer be sold. What we see here is a trade-off.
12:36Export bans at least keep fuel inside Russia, potentially easing the shortage. But they also
12:42mean that producers can't sell overseas, which results in Russia losing billions of dollars in
12:47tax revenue on exports that can no longer happen. Desperate times call for desperate measures. And we
12:53all know that when Putin and his cronies get desperate, they always do one thing – lie.
12:58In a June 30 article, Pravda reported that fuel prices in Russia are now being censored,
13:04meaning sometimes people won't know what they're going to pay for their fuel until they reach the
13:08pumps. Specifically, the Kremlin has stopped Russia's leading statistical agency Rostat from
13:14releasing its regular bulletins on consumer prices for gasoline and diesel. That bulletin contains
13:19prices for fuel broken down by grade, region and 1,800 gas stations across 280 cities. At least it did.
13:27Now it doesn't, as the Kremlin scrambles to hide the obvious inflation that is happening to fuel prices
13:33as supply can no longer meet demand. So another pain point for the Russian people. Wait for hours,
13:39get into a fight and then find out that you don't even have the rubles to buy enough fuel to
13:43get back
13:43home. If Putin's goal in the Ukraine war was to deliver the heights of the Soviet Union back to Russia,
13:49he's going a strange way about. What all of this shows us is that Russia's options for dealing with
13:55its fuel crisis are narrowing. All of the logical solutions have already been put in place, and the
14:01lying has already begun. That leaves the stranger solutions, and we gave you a clue as to what they
14:06might be at the beginning of the video. You remember? We told you that portable toilet sellers are going to
14:12be rolling in cash due to this fuel crisis. An interesting ex-post gives us some insight into what
14:17Russians are being forced to do as they spend hours in the fuel queues. Snapped in Kerch, which is in
14:23Crimea, the photo shows a person squatting down on an embankment on the side of the road. We bet you
14:28can guess what the person is doing. They're relieving themselves because they've been forced to wait so
14:32long that nature's call turned into a scream. From Kerch all the way to the bridge, the roadsides are
14:38covered in piss and shit. The ex-post blares, which even got a response from Ukraine's army media,
14:43which said that for Russians, this is completely normal behavior. Whether it is or not, the photo
14:49reveals a problem. If you have people waiting for up to 18 hours in fuel queues, you're going to get
14:55a lot of number ones and twos being dropped on the roadside. In Irkutsk, which you may remember as the
15:00site of one of the violent incidents we recounted earlier, the local mayor has come up with a novel
15:04solution. Buy portable toilets to be set up at gas stations and on the roadside for people being forced to
15:10wait in line. Portable toilet manufacturers will be rubbing their hands in glee. An unexpected
15:15windfall is coming their way, as we imagine this solution to the cube problem is going to become
15:20more widespread in other Russian regions. We say solution, it's not really. Portable toilets are
15:25just a symbol that the Kremlin expects the Russian people to suck it up and deal with the fact that
15:30a
15:30country that is renowned for its fuel production has run out of fuel. And that brings us to what happens
15:36next. Ukraine isn't going to slow down with its refinery and fuel truck strikes. Why would it?
15:42The impact is being felt all over Russia and Ukraine has a golden opportunity to worsen this fuel crisis
15:48to put more pressure on Putin. Success breeds more success in a masterclass of hurting the Russian
15:54people without killing them. More worrying than that for Putin is the anger at the pumps. He'll be
15:59looking at that and will see thousands of people who are on the edge. Nerves are frayed and people are
16:04furious, which is a dangerous recipe for an authoritarian leader. Could a revolt against
16:09Putin be on the cards? It's hard to tell, as Putin has a habit of cracking down harshly on protests.
16:15But there's no denying that the ingredients for an uprising are all there. Polls reveal how
16:20unsatisfied the average Russian is with Putin's leadership. CNN reports that only 27% of Russians
16:26believe that the country's economy is getting better. That tells us that about three quarters of Russians
16:31are actually paying attention and see that they're in a financial crater of Putin's making.
16:36According to the Moscow Times, July 3rd saw Putin's job approval rating dropped from 70.4% to 66.9%.
16:44The number of people who actively say they disapprove of how Putin handled the presidency rose to 21.3%.
16:51Those look like numbers that any other world leader would love to have. However,
16:55these percentages come from the state-run VTS-IOM pollster, which means they've been massaged as
17:01much as possible to soothe Putin's ego. Plus, this is Russia, where prison or falls from windows await
17:07people who complain about their leader. The fact that so many are willing to express anger is a window
17:12into the true feelings of the Russian masses. The fuel crisis is only going to feed this discontent.
17:18Putin's latest response to the problem has been to demand that Russian manufacturers pump out more air
17:23defense systems and missiles to tackle Ukraine's drones. Russia needs those defenses, despite Putin's
17:29claims that all the strikes, wherever they hit our infrastructure, absolutely do not affect the
17:34situation on the front, on the line of combat contact. Oh right, so Russia is just doing as
17:39poorly as it is in Ukraine because of Putin's inept leadership. Got it. This is all nonsense, of course,
17:45and it boggles the mind that Putin somehow expects more air defenses to appear in a country that is
17:50weighed down by sanctions and, according to UKRA News, has reached a production dead end in its
17:55defense sector. Still, the order has been made. Ukraine won't care. It was able to hit the
18:00refineries in 2024 and 2025, when Russia had more air defenses. It's hitting them harder in 2026,
18:07and it will hit them harder still as the year goes on. The queues will get larger, the violence will
18:12spread, the anger will grow, and Putin is forced to face up to the fact that he is losing so
18:17badly,
18:17the portable toilet manufacturer is primed to become one of the most successful business ideas in Russia.
18:23Oh, how the mighty of fault. And it's not just a fuel crisis that has knocked Putin off his strongman
18:29perch. Since he started the Ukraine war, Russia's leader has cratered his country's geopolitical
18:34influence, leaving Russia in a far worse position than where it started. Why is that a problem? Find
18:40out the answer in our video. And if you enjoyed this video, make sure you subscribe to The Military Show
18:45and ring the notification bell to see more of our analysis of the collapse of Russia from the inside,
18:50all caused by Ukraine. And thank you, as always, for watching.
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