- 2 days ago
NFL Network's Nick Shook predicts the Commanders to finish 4-13. There is some context behind the exercise, so Grant & Danny ask why he predicts the tough season.
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00:00Nats hosting the Astros tonight.
00:02They did lose last evening, but they can still win the series.
00:04Yes, indeed.
00:05Foster Griffin on the bump, which gives you a good shot to do it.
00:08The lineup is out.
00:09We'll go through a little Nats coverage later on in the program.
00:12Right now, though, we wanted to dive into the commanders and expectations for this year.
00:17We actually started the show with seven analysts with NFL Media Network.com.
00:22We're projecting their win-loss record, and we were a little surprised that six of them had losing records.
00:27And one of them actually had a 4-13 record.
00:30So after last year's 5-12 debacle, where it felt like everything that could go wrong did go wrong,
00:35and Jaden Daniels was hurt a lot, and that was rock bottom,
00:38somehow they get worse after adding all the talent they have this offseason.
00:41So we wanted to have Nick Shook on, who had that 4-13 prediction,
00:44to just kind of get that perspective on, from an outsider looking at this thing,
00:49why things might not go well.
00:50Nick, thanks for a few minutes.
00:51How are you?
00:54I'm great.
00:54And it's funny that you led into that there like that, because I'm thinking,
00:58oh, so my record's probably the worst, and they're going to dial the guy who had the worst,
01:02because today is the day they're rolling them all out.
01:04Yep.
01:05So I'm glad we're having this conversation.
01:07So, yeah, we come in peace, I guess I will tell you.
01:10But if there were two extremes, I'd get the person on that had the really good record, too.
01:14But there isn't one of those.
01:14Yeah, there's no 13-win guy we could call.
01:17Somebody had a 9-8, which I guess is like, oh, thanks.
01:20That's cool.
01:21But it was mostly 7-10, 6-11s, and then yours stuck out like a sore thumb.
01:26So I guess explain it first, and then we can ask some follow-ups.
01:31Yeah.
01:32So, look, this is an exercise that I think is one that you can kind of look team by team
01:39and just say, okay, well, I look at that roster, I see them as a, I don't know,
01:43a 7-8-9-win team, and then you just throw that record out there, right?
01:46And I've done that in the past, but when I was thinking about this exercise this time around,
01:49I thought to myself, well, in a world in which we're making record predictions for all 32 teams,
01:55some of these games that we see one team winning against another team can't also be another win for that
02:01team.
02:01So I essentially went through playing the schedule game, which I think is an overrated game
02:04that we often like to do when the schedule is released in May.
02:07But I decided to do it for each team and printed out all the sheets and decided to go win
02:10-loss all the way down the thing.
02:12And unfortunately, I arrived at some records that I thought didn't really match my opinion of some of these teams.
02:19The commanders are somewhere in between because when I look at this team and where they are right now,
02:25you separate yourself from what happened last year because much of that depended on the fact
02:30that you didn't have your quarterback for the majority of the season because of injury.
02:34But you also had a really bad defense, largely speaking,
02:38which is how they've directed most of their resources this offseason in trying to improve that defense.
02:43You're looking at probably six or seven projected new starters in that unit.
02:46The commanders understood that they needed to be much better on that side of the ball,
02:50and specifically Dan Quinn being the coach of that team and his background,
02:54they understood, all right, we have to improve personnel-wise here.
02:58A lot of it is an unknown, though, and I kind of need to see some of this come together.
03:03There are some quality veterans that I really like.
03:06There are some guys that I sit and look at this big picture and think,
03:09how is that going to necessarily fit in?
03:11You know, you're buying high, I think, or relatively high on some guys who had good seasons last year,
03:16like Caleb Onshason, who had a career year, essentially, with the Patriots.
03:20I love the addition of Leo Schnall, love Sonny Stiles.
03:23I'm curious to see exactly how he makes the transition from college ball to the NFL.
03:27We know he's an athletic freak.
03:29Odafe Owe, a guy that kind of fell out of favor in Baltimore,
03:31ends up, you know, kind of reclaiming some of his reputation with the Chargers.
03:35These are all players that you recognize in one way or another and think,
03:38okay, this is going to work.
03:39We just haven't seen them play together yet.
03:41And I think when there's that much change, it's hard to depend on this assembly of talent
03:46and think, okay, this is instantly going to make them that much better.
03:49So if we go back to the schedule game,
03:50I start thinking about matchup and my opinion of some of these other teams.
03:53And frankly, it's just not really a favorable schedule to begin with.
03:56I mean, I'm looking at the whole sheet right now.
03:59Your first three games are against the Eagles, Cowboys, and Seahawks, right?
04:02Seahawks, reigning champions, Cowboys,
04:04a team that I think is going to be a lot better than people expect this season
04:07as long as that defensive rebuild comes together.
04:10But we already know they have an explosive offense,
04:11which is something the Canadiens can't quite say
04:13because of what happened last year without your quarterback.
04:16And you'd obviously start on the road at the Eagles.
04:18So I think a lot of this is just a challenging schedule.
04:21There are some pockets in there for victories.
04:23I think I'll probably be wrong on some of these game predictions as well,
04:25as most everybody is when doing this exercise.
04:28It's not that I don't really like their team.
04:30It's just that this is a slate that if a lot of these teams perform as I expect them to,
04:34it's going to be very challenging,
04:35say for a nice little stretch in late November, early December,
04:38where they could get back on track.
04:40That's going to be a crucial one when they play the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, Titans,
04:44and then Texans.
04:44If they can win the majority of those games,
04:46then they'll probably be in a better position than I see them being in.
04:48Nick, I don't disagree with any of your points there.
04:51And it's kind of been my thesis as to why this is closer to a 7-10, 8-9 team
04:55than it is to what a lot of fans around here I think are anticipating.
04:58Just Daniels is healthy.
04:59We'll roll the jerseys out onto the field and go back to the NFC title game again.
05:03But I guess my counter to your counter, if I may, is 4-13 is different.
05:08And I don't know how else to say it better than that.
05:10Like 6-11, yeah, okay, you were in some games,
05:12but you had some injuries that weren't as good.
05:144-13 is very Raiders-y.
05:15It's very Jets-y.
05:16It's very Browns-y.
05:17You know what I mean?
05:18Like, I think you have to be exceptionally bad to get there,
05:20even with that tough schedule.
05:23Is that something where you just go, well, you know what?
05:25The math said the math, and that's the end.
05:27Or did you have any hesitation going, I don't care what I did, as you said,
05:31the schedule game in May, and 4-13 is 4-13.
05:34You know what I mean?
05:35Like, I feel like that's reserved for the true dregs,
05:38which I think we're both kind of saying, I don't think they're that,
05:41even if they're not that good.
05:43No, you raise a great point.
05:44You know, what's funny is I shouldn't have done some of this in alphabetical order
05:47because I got down to the T, you know, Washington, I got down to Tennessee,
05:50I got down to Tampa Bay, and I thought, oh, no,
05:53I have way more losses for these teams than I anticipate.
05:56You know, I've had Titans fans all over me today because of the record I gave them.
05:59Like, I ended up at 2-15 with them.
06:02I do not see them as a 2-15 team.
06:04I would just like to make that very clear.
06:05They were better than that last year.
06:07I think they'll be better than that this year.
06:09And it kind of applies to some of these teams that landed where they landed.
06:12Now, I think my Buccaneers prediction is going to come close to where they finished.
06:15But I don't really feel like this team is as bad as the record indicates
06:18and that would fall under the dregs like you mentioned.
06:21But that's kind of the cold nature of the NFL.
06:24And sometimes if one or two things goes wrong, you can go completely off the rails.
06:28I mean, at this time last year, I'm sure you guys were.
06:31We probably talked about it at this time.
06:33I know I heard about it later from one Commanders fan who was my uncle's nephew on his other side.
06:40I talked about the Commanders and the sky-high optimism
06:43and how can they build on making such a deep and unexpected playoff run.
06:48And I said, this team kind of reminds me of the 2008 Browns,
06:51which is that they had a franchise quarterback.
06:53But they were a team that was assembled with a lot of veterans
06:56that I think overachieved in the first year
06:58and was going to have a hard time doing it again in the next year.
07:00Then they lost that franchise quarterback.
07:02We all know what happened.
07:03It ended up landing pretty close to what I thought at the time.
07:06I feel better about this team now than I did maybe at that point,
07:09even if my record prediction would have been higher last year.
07:11So sometimes the numbers on the record don't match the sentiment,
07:14which is what makes this exercise so challenging.
07:17And you're right.
07:17I got to the end of some of these and I'm like,
07:19I looked at the – I have a couple of them here where it's like
07:22I had an L crossed out and replaced the W.
07:24Then you go back to the other team's sheet
07:26and change that from a W to an L and that sort of thing.
07:28There's a lot of, I think, internal conflict with this exercise.
07:32But, again, I think a lot of it is how the schedule stacks up.
07:34And this one's definitely not going to be easy for them.
07:37NFL.com writer Nick Shook.
07:39You see him on NFL Network.
07:43If – I'm looking at two variables that I think swing the pendulum
07:48for them this year.
07:49I want to get your reaction.
07:51If Daniels is excellent, doesn't have to be 20-24,
07:55but comparable to that and healthy for almost the whole season.
07:59And their defense is markedly improved.
08:01They spent a ton of money.
08:03They have a new scheme.
08:04They're going with the Flores scheme.
08:05Durante Jones coming over from Minnesota.
08:07I just have a hard time believing they're not going to make major strides
08:10on that side of the ball.
08:11I was making the case earlier.
08:13If they're solid on defense, like in the 13-18 range,
08:18and if Daniels is a back-end top-10 quarterback in the league,
08:22that's 10-plus wins maybe, right?
08:23I mean, is there a path that those two things happen,
08:26he's awesome, the defense is pretty good,
08:28and they still lose 10 games?
08:32I think that you're flirting more with 500 or slightly above,
08:35which is about that 10-game mark that you pointed out there.
08:38I think that's definitely possible.
08:39My areas of concern with them offensively are the depth at playmaker.
08:44I mean, you obviously have Terry McLaurin.
08:47You bring over Deami Brown.
08:49But, like, you know, Antonio Williams' draft pick,
08:52that's encouraging, that's exciting, whatever, but that's unproven.
08:55And then you've got Traylon Burks,
08:56one of my guys that I picked in a recent column
08:58as somebody who should be better this year.
09:00I think, actually, this is the perfect situation for him
09:02to finally access some of that potential and deliver on it.
09:05But it's really far from rock-solid in what we know.
09:09It also depends heavily on the health of the offensive line,
09:12which we know was kind of an issue for them at times last year.
09:14I love the addition of Chico Conquo.
09:17Can he kind of replace what Zach Ertz was
09:19as like a fail-safe option in this passing game last year?
09:22There are still a lot of questions there, but I agree.
09:25Because, in theory, you can apply that to almost any team
09:27and say, well, if the defense is a lot better
09:29and you have a superstar quarterback or a budding superstar,
09:32he's definitely a star quarterback with the potential to become a superstar,
09:34if he can stay healthy and be on the field and make plays,
09:37then, yes, you're going to win more games.
09:38That's kind of the story of what they were in 2024.
09:40It's just a lot of ifs right now.
09:42And because I look at the roster and the offensive side
09:45and I look at a backfield that starts with Bill Crosby,
09:48Merritt continues with Rashad White, which is a nice little one-two combo.
09:51But it's just a lot of question marks for me that I still need to be answered.
09:55And the other thing that's pretty important in making these projections right now
10:01is how strong is the division around them?
10:03Because that's the team you're going to be playing most,
10:05or the teams that you're going to be playing most often.
10:07And when I look at this division right now, I have a lot of questions about the Eagles.
10:11You know, they obviously have had a lot of success over the last four or five years,
10:16but there has been some significant change there.
10:18And I'm very curious to see, you know, really on both sides of the ball,
10:21whether they can continue to be as successful as they've been in past years.
10:24And if Dallas improves like I believe they might with a highly explosive offense
10:29and a defense that couldn't stop a nosebleed,
10:30if that defense kind of following your theory here is markedly better,
10:34then they're going to be a really tough out.
10:36And that makes two teams that are going to be very tough competition.
10:38That's four games right there on your schedule that are going to be really challenging.
10:41And that's not accounting for whatever John Harbaugh does with the Giants as well.
10:45So division strength also factors into this here.
10:47And as you may understand, I've known for a while,
10:50it's tough to navigate when you're not one of the better teams.
10:52But this is why the NFL continues to be the most watched sport in this country,
10:56because the parity that exists in this league,
10:59the turnover from year to year in playoff teams keeps everybody intrigued.
11:02And at this time of the year, everybody's optimistic.
11:04And it makes people like me who give you a poor record prediction
11:07because it's my job look like the bad guy.
11:09But that's okay, because we all love football and we're all looking forward to it.
11:13No, indeed.
11:13So there were two.
11:15So look, when I see a record like that in either direction, right,
11:18I kind of go, okay, let me think along with them.
11:20So here's the thesis.
11:21It's the division you just went through and mentioned.
11:23I'm going, if you buy, the Giants are much better.
11:26You buy this Dallas Renaissance and you've got some track record here in Philly
11:28where it's an even year, which means they go 14-3.
11:31They've done that twice after a couple other years.
11:35Then that's one of the theses, theses, theses, I don't know, whatever that is.
11:39That's one of the main points.
11:40And the other you've already referenced, but I'd love for you to go into,
11:42is Daniels' health.
11:43We're just sort of doing the, if he's healthy, dot, dot, dot.
11:46Hadn't started 25 games yet and finished four last year that he began,
11:50or whatever the number was.
11:51And I haven't heard enough about their plan to keep them healthy just yet.
11:55I'm hoping that it happens, but, you know, I don't know if that's a great strategy.
11:58What about that part of things, the Daniels' health element to all of this?
12:03Now, see, now, and maybe this is unfortunate given the market you guys work in,
12:07but now you're kind of starting to tread, get your toe into the water of my skepticism here.
12:12From the outside national perspective, I have the same question marks about this,
12:16about this whole situation.
12:18They didn't do enough to keep him upright last year,
12:21and he's not the biggest, you know, quarterback in the NFL.
12:24Like, he's got a bit of a slight frame, even though he's 6'4", 210 pounds.
12:29He doesn't quite carry as much bulk as he would like for a quarterback
12:32who's going to take that many hits.
12:33And it's also a matter of how they used him last year.
12:36I think that Daniels' plan probably learned a valuable lesson
12:38when he left him on the field in the blob and he ends up hurting his elbow,
12:41that he should have gotten him out of the game.
12:43You've got to give a lot of credit to Marcus Mariota for keeping the ship afloat,
12:45by the way, one of the more trusted veteran backups in the NFL.
12:48But we know what happens when you lose your starting quarterback.
12:50Your projection, your optimism, your potential for success just drops significantly,
12:53no matter who your backup is, in most cases.
12:56You know, ruling out the Nick Foles of the world.
12:57But in most cases, that's what happens.
12:59And until that can be proven to me, they did it in his first year,
13:02but if they can prove it to me in year three that they've learned
13:05from the mistakes that they made and how they handled him last year,
13:08then I'll start to believe more than I am right now.
13:11But as of now, I just remain on the skeptical, cynical side
13:13just because of what happened last year.
13:16And it's also an organization with a coach and a staff
13:19that's kind of on the hot seat at this point.
13:21And that pressure can either produce success or it can be all-consuming.
13:25And that's another element that makes me a little skeptical about this team.
13:29Nick Shook on the commanders.
13:31I think the scheme change is indicative of them wanting to further insulate
13:37and protect him, right?
13:38Because you go away from Kingsbury, who was going to have him run,
13:41and in the Blau offense, that Ben Johnson-like offense,
13:44that should be much less a part of what they're going to do.
13:47But they've got to prove it, and the games are coming,
13:50so they'll have a chance to.
13:51Last thing, though, you just mentioned a hot seat.
13:54And we go back and forth on this as a show a lot.
13:58How hot should the seat be on Dan Quinn?
14:00It's two seasons, NFC title game, and then kind of a disaster last year.
14:05And I don't just mean that they went 5-12,
14:08but they had a stretch where they got blown out by 20 or more points
14:11in four straight games, which hadn't happened in two decades.
14:15Like, that's really hard to survive as a head coach.
14:17It's hard to be that bad.
14:19So how warm should the seat be this season if things get off to a slow start?
14:24Yeah, and that's the tough part is that I think in years past,
14:27and maybe with a different version of this Washington franchise,
14:31it wouldn't be really that warm because he would still have that first season
14:35success to point to it.
14:36Look, this is what I can do when everything goes right.
14:39But in this NFL that we're in now,
14:41and especially once you get a young, promising star quarterback,
14:45it seems like the sense of urgency is almost always ramped up.
14:49Now, you don't want to create too much change and dysfunction
14:51that ruins the quarterback's trajectory.
14:53But at the same time, when you get that young quarterback
14:55who's on that rookie deal and you see your quote-unquote title window
14:59or your contending window open, the pressure ramps up
15:01and the sense of urgency increases.
15:03So I think it's warm.
15:05I wouldn't call it hot yet.
15:06But you also can point to last season and the loss of Daniels
15:10as a way to excuse away those struggles,
15:13except for the fact that they lost a lot of those games,
15:15like you just said, by wide margins.
15:18That's the part that you can't excuse away
15:19because often people will look at results of those games
15:22and say, oh, well, this team gave up on that coach,
15:24and next thing you know, that coach is gone.
15:26You cannot have a repeat performance of that this year.
15:28You must be competitive.
15:29Even if you don't make the playoffs,
15:31you must be competitive and finish on a strong note
15:33to get some positive momentum going forward.
15:35And the one thing that we don't know about this team
15:38and this new ownership group is how they handle challenges.
15:42They had a reason to give Dan Quinn the benefit of the doubt last year
15:45because of the success he had in year one.
15:47If these struggles are similar again,
15:49we're going to learn a lot about Josh Harris and group
15:52and how they handle, you know, failure on the field
15:55when it comes to making their hiring and firing decisions.
15:58Nick, great with us, man.
15:59I really appreciate the insight.
16:01Thanks for having me, guys.
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