- 5 minutes ago
Lord Neil Kinnock has urged Andy Burnham not to be as constrained as Sir Keir Starmer by Labour’s so-called “red lines” on Europe in a wide-ranging exclusive interview with The Independent’s Whitehall Editor, Kate Devlin.Lord Kinnock was speaking to The Independent as part of our Europe: The Way Back campaign - launched to explore ways to rebuild Britain's future relationship with Europe. Join The Independent's campaign to rebuild Britain's future in Europe and sign up to our free weekly newsletter Europe: The Way Back.
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00:00The only patriotic thing to do is to get us back into the European Union.
00:04I think Andy's going to deal with Trump like hedgehogs made love.
00:09So Neil, thank you so much for doing this interview for our campaign Brexit the Way Back.
00:14Hello Kate, it's very good to come to my humble abode,
00:19the smallest office in the whole Palace of Westminster.
00:23Thank you so much for having us. The first question I wanted to ask you is
00:27What do you think the damage has been of Brexit?
00:31It's been wide and deep and worst of all it's continuing and will continue.
00:39And the damage is economic and political and social and cultural.
00:44The economic damage is difficult really to believe but these are independent analysts who produce
00:53the figures as six to eight percent fall loss in gross domestic product which means
01:01a sixty to eighty billion pound loss in public revenues needed for vital services.
01:09An eighteen percent fall in investment by comparison with the years leading up to the referendum and
01:18indeed the departure, the full exit. Fifteen percent fall in trade with the single market of the European Union
01:31mainly affecting something in the region of 24,000 smaller medium-sized enterprises
01:41for whom the European market was a substantial part of their operation.
01:46Indeed, the number that I've just given you have ceased to trade with the rest of Europe because
01:54of the gigantic and expensive demands of bureaucracy. All this works out at something like
02:02£3,200 a year per person loss in Britain for a conventional family that's over £6,000 and the damage
02:17goes on,
02:18which as I say is probably the worst part of it and it won't come to a stop until we've
02:25got an entirely different
02:27new relationship which I think should involve applying again to join the European Union.
02:36And you were a Remainer, you campaigned for Remain. Are you still a little bit surprised at just how
02:45as you say deep the damage has been? No, not really because I said on the Today programme the day
02:53after,
02:53or the Monday after the referendum when Project FEAR was being alleged and indeed Osborne was attempting
03:04it by saying that the economy was going to fall off the cliff. I said that's not going to happen,
03:10we will just bump along the bottom for a very long time and that's exactly what's occurred.
03:16I haven't been surprised, I've been deeply saddened and indeed to be honest enraged by it because this
03:25was an avoidable disaster. It's interesting you describe it as not quite falling off a cliff,
03:31but is that kind of damage actually more pernicious? Is it a bit like being boiled like a frog?
03:37Yeah, it's more like contracting some dreadful long-lasting illness that debilitates and doesn't kill.
03:47We have been debilitated by being outside the European Union and it's very obvious
03:58that the measurements economically are sadly accurate. The way I express it to people is to say look,
04:08when we were members of the European Union we were joint indeed leading
04:19determination of the conduct and direction of our continent. The United Kingdom was always
04:26granted more weight than even our substantial size, relatively, would allow. It was for all kinds of
04:38cultural and historic and traditional reasons, but we've exchanged that position of being one of the
04:45determinants to being an applicant for participation in the developing security partnership.
04:55And that's a measure of where we've come to politically, despite the best efforts of Keir Starmer's
05:05government. And their energy and commitment is in no doubt now moving into a different phase
05:13of relationships with the European Union. And maybe Andy will have a different perspective and not feel
05:24himself quite as constrained by the so-called red lines, which invited difficulty. I have to say that I don't
05:38think that we're going to reach substantial and sustainable rates of economic growth while access
05:47to our main market is impeded. And when imports from our main market carry extra costs.
05:57I mean, something is barely mentioned. We've had a 12% devaluation. Usually devaluations, when they're planned,
06:08results in an increase in exports because of the change in the value of the pound and a decrease in
06:16imports.
06:17In the case of this devaluation, which has only happened as a consequence of Brexit, we've lost exports and the
06:27price of our imports has gone up.
06:29I mean, it's economics upside down.
06:34Do you hope that Andy isn't limited by these red lines? And would you just scrap both of them completely?
06:42Is there one that's more important than the other?
06:43I don't see how they can be scrapped, simply because that's the basis on which Labour was elected to government.
06:54And even under new leadership, I don't think there's a tearing up option.
07:02Much as I would, if it was possible and practical, I would like to see it to give ourselves a
07:08fresh start.
07:09What they can do is to accelerate and intensify the efforts to get a new level of trust
07:18and a realignment with the European Union, particularly the signal market.
07:26And having done that and made the argument publicly against the disadvantages of being outside
07:35and the potential advantages of being inside to put a commitment in the next manifesto.
07:43I think that would be particularly opportune, not least because so many other parties will be making the same commitment.
07:54The Liberals certainly, the Nationalists definitely, the Greens very likely.
08:01So the consequence of all that is that we would only be focusing the argument against the Conservatives and reform.
08:16And that suits me down to the ground.
08:18But also, is there a risk of being behind and left behind by the Greens and Lib Dems?
08:25Yeah, in this Palace of Westminster, people think in terms of the three-legged race.
08:33That's not how the public sees it.
08:35They want to see where parties stand.
08:39If there's a coincidence between parties, and that's the direction in which the public wants to travel,
08:46they'll make their final choice on the basis of other policies.
08:50But there will be almost a depoliticization of the argument simply because of the breadth of agreement.
08:58Now, we should understand that, of course, because we went through all the years since 1987,
09:05where, right up until 2015, where the relationship with the European Union did not figure at all in the contest
09:20between parties.
09:23And it only emerged in 2015 because Spangler's Mr Cameron thought that he could get the cohesion of his party
09:36by promising the referendum, which the anti-European fringe, and it was a fringe then, had been demanding.
09:49But, of course, when a concession like that is made, when appeasement like that is undertaken,
09:56the appeasers get eaten, and Cameron got eaten.
10:01With the new leader, do you think also European leaders look at that and see a chance for a fresh
10:09look at building trust? Is that attractive to them?
10:13Well, they will be quickly reassured by Andy, there's no doubt, but it would be absolutely wrong to miss
10:23the reality that Keir has built real trust and admiration in the European Union.
10:31The bridge that Andy's going to have to cross is the one that leads from the Keir Starmer that the
10:39European leaders know and have come to like and trust, and that applies to nearly all of them.
10:47There are a few real eccentrics.
10:50But you said you think they're going to be reassured by him. Why is that?
10:54Because he needs to do it.
10:58The point is quite a lot of what he's proposing is conventional politics in much of the rest of Europe.
11:05A lot of what he's saying will be familiar and reassuring to several of the leaderships.
11:15You've got to persuade people to work together.
11:19You've got to stop them being ideological or dogmatic, at least, about the positions that they started off with.
11:26When you've got to do it through the medium of interpreters, in a big room in Brussels,
11:33around a table where there are several vested interests contesting each other.
11:40That's a very interesting experience.
11:44Both in terms of the clarity of his direction and purpose, which is invaluable.
11:51I think Andy's going to deal with Trump like hedgehogs make love, carefully.
11:59That's just basic, but nobody's going to tell him that. That's what he'll do.
12:03And the thing is, the good thing about Andy, he is a very cool guy.
12:07He doesn't burst into flames.
12:11I'd have had difficulty with Trump because my irritation level is very, very low.
12:22And Andy's isn't, which is a real plus. So he'll keep his temper.
12:29Farage is about as willing to talk about Brexit as nationalists are willing to talk about independence
12:36in an election and never use the word separation. You won't find enough using the honest word,
12:44separation. They talk about this viral concept that both of us, you and I and everybody else,
12:52really likes of being independent. Lovely. We don't like the danger of separation. So that's why you'll
13:01never hear them use the word. That's a bit like Farage now. When he makes a speech listing the
13:07advantages of Brexit, maybe the sun won't rise that day. Will you eat your hat that day?
13:13Nope. I've got a very conservative appetite. But this whole business of sovereignty that they sold,
13:21you've got people using their word for the first time in their lives, without realising that
13:35real power, total sovereignty, has been the monopoly of a certain grouping in our society, always.
13:48And the whole business of democracy involves trying to disperse that sovereignty to the citizen. That's
13:59one thing that is not generally recognised. But the second thing that isn't recognised, and it's more
14:07important by that day, is stand-along sovereignty. Stand-along sovereignty is the preserve of the couple
14:19of superpowers for all of what Mark Carney rightly called the middle powers. Sovereignty depends,
14:29the ability to exercise effective influence on behalf of your country in partnership with other countries.
14:40The Brexiteers manage to take this complex idea of sovereignty, strip it of all its real meaning,
14:50and get people to confuse it with their personal self-determination. Whether that served their purposes,
14:58or not. I was going to ask you about the campaign and what you thought went wrong.
15:03Well, nothing went right. Oh wow. That's all. Yeah. We didn't score any goals at all. This idea.
15:12The only, the nearest we came to a goal was John Major and Tony Blair going to Northern Ireland.
15:17Yeah. But the news coverage treated it like a kind of tourism film. Yeah.
15:24Here are two nice gents who wanted peace in Northern Ireland and they got it. You can see them
15:31crossing the bridge in Delhi. Yeah. Isn't that lovely? Yeah. What the hell has it got to do with Europe?
15:36Everything. But nobody explained that. No, no. I mean, it was...
15:41This idea that the campaign should be run by somebody who wasn't a politician, was that wrong?
15:46Well, he said it wasn't. I mean, what's his name? Nice Man Rose. Yeah.
15:50He said it was frustrating for him and unproductive for the campaign. Yeah.
15:59But the idea was, I know what the idea was, that if you could get market bigwigs,
16:10successful capitalists, big bosses, to say that Brexit was dangerous, they hardly said. Being in the
16:19European Union strengthens our country politically and benefits our country economically, hugely.
16:28Yeah. And you've talked about if we go back in again, democratically, you think there's going
16:32to have to be another referendum. Or we're going to have to learn lessons.
16:36Yeah. But we're going to have to learn lessons. Will the arguments have to be made that are a bit
16:41more,
16:43slightly more heart, slightly less head this time around?
16:46No, no. I think that the weight of the heart is through the head.
16:51Because people live in the real world. And you can appeal to their sentimentality as much as you like.
16:57That will tip the balance of convincing them, maybe. But really, when they're running homes and businesses,
17:09and considering their children's future, it is the economy stupid. And so consequently,
17:16we need to spend years not only spelling out the awful damage and cost and risk of being outside,
17:26but also the potential that we could develop and exploit on the inside. The only patriotic thing to do
17:36is to get us back into the European Union. It's as raw and as basic as that. If you love
17:42your country
17:44and the people who live under the flag and not just saluting the flag, you will want to get us
17:49back into
17:50the European Union. All the other options are not patriotic. They are not serving the national interest.
17:58And I looked up, because I couldn't quite remember, but the referendum in 1975, 67% pro.
18:05Yes. Could we get to those numbers again? Could we get more? That's what we need to do.
18:09Yeah. If we want to stay in for 40 odd years. Yeah. Is it possible? I think it is.
18:16Um, especially if over the coming years, we didn't just stand there on the white cliffs and shout,
18:23we envy you. We're really sorry we left across the channel. But say, um, we understand that any
18:35deal that we make to get back in to the European Union and the single market must have mutual,
18:42heavy italics, mutual advantages. And we know what you can bring to us by giving us access
18:53unimpeded access to the biggest market. Here's what we can help you with. Science, technology,
19:01green transition, universities, cultural development, the best music in the world,
19:14the greatest theater, the most developed European cinema, you know,
19:19um, that mixture of commercial and cultural, hard economic, and, and soft persuasion, you know?
19:28Yeah. Straightforward as that. Yeah.
19:30Um, and the other thing is do it for the kids. They didn't get a chance to have a say.
19:36Now,
19:36you can say the same about an election, but you know, with an election, one day they will have their
19:42say.
19:43A one-off referendum with a yes, no question, um, might legitimately represent the view
19:54view of a generation or a given population on a given day. Um, the view could have changed a fortnight
20:03later, certainly changed ten years later, would vote to rejoin. I've, I've got reservations about
20:11the figure because you're asking them the question. Nobody said, this is what we're going to have to do.
20:17So as long as the people who sold us a pep last time have got any influence or appear to
20:26have
20:26any chance of, uh, being part of the government, um, the people on the other side in the countries
20:38and the institutions are going to have reservations about the, um, risk level of letting us back in.
20:47I mean, that's the reality as well. I wanted to ask as well, obviously, um, Andy Burnham
20:51is bringing in this idea of Manchesterism. Are you disappointed we're still talking about the
20:56North side divide after so many decades of this? Yeah. The difference is all we have done is talk
21:03about before. So maybe Andy will be able to get something done about it. And the North
21:08is an emblem of undernourished, underfunded, neglected, abandoned communities. And when you eradicate
21:20a community's main means of sustenance, you don't just take the jobs, um, you take the life and soul.
21:29Well, it's the main motive for people who want to poke the system in the eye with a sharp stick.
21:36And a yes-no referendum is the absolute perfect means of doing that, especially when all of the sense
21:44of being taken for granted and abandoned has been intensified by five years of austerity.
21:50And it doesn't just, um, close their shops, but taking away the youth club, the library,
21:57um, lengthen the hospital waiting lists, um, make the school class bigger. And, and then you're
22:05looking around for somebody to blame. And along comes Nigel with his poster of Syrian refugees being
22:12passed off as the millions of Turks who are guaranteed to be able to enjoy freedom of movement
22:19because Turkey will be in the European Union in minutes. Ten years later, the Turks know it's not
22:30going to happen. Can I check, do you have any concerns, and some Labour MPs do, that perhaps
22:36Manchesterism doesn't actually quite get the problems of Cardigan, Kirkwall?
22:41No, it does. And in fact, um, and he talked about, uh, Bangor.
22:47He did.
22:48And Port Talbot.
22:49Yep.
22:50Uh, and he then checked Aberdeen.
22:52Yep.
22:52And he mentioned the West of England and no, he's conscious of the fact that one of the
22:59the instruments for changing the potential of the United Kingdom and then realising that potential,
23:11applies to the whole country.
23:13What do you think does happen to Brexit, but maybe, you know, in a wider sense,
23:18the country, if Nigel Farage does end up becoming Prime Minister?
23:22He's not going to be Prime Minister for several reasons. The primary one is,
23:26uh, he craves attention because he's a narcissist and he gets it.
23:32But, uh, they're gradually becoming aware of the irony that the more attention they get,
23:38the more exposure they get. Instead of treating Farage and reform as interesting novelties,
23:47they're beginning to be treated, even by, uh, the right-wing media,
23:53as a political party with paid politicians leading them, and a political party with
24:04local representatives in control of billion-pound, uh, funding for the local authority.
24:14Um, so their, their performance, they didn't previously have any performance,
24:21their performance is being watched in a way that I don't think they welcome.
24:27Um, and the more people know about them, the less they like them.
24:32I mean, they'll be able to stir some, uh, pretty, uh, uh, elementary sentiments.
24:45And they will, in the classic way of populism, I'm using the polite, uh, the classic way of populism,
24:54and they, um, will offer simple answers, or simple responses, you never answers,
25:02simple responses to complex challenges. And there are circumstances in which people would say,
25:10well, we've heard the complex answers, they were not bloody good, let's try the simple ones.
25:16Um, so, you know, that's the basis of their attractiveness.
25:21But it sounds like you think the balloon is bursting.
25:23Yeah, it won't burst, but it'll slowly inflate.
25:26Okay. But it's already started.
25:28Yeah. In addition to exposure, of course, which I
25:32certainly believe is the duty of the, uh, of the established political parties,
25:40um, the Nats, the Greens, uh, Liberals, and us, and the Tories, and the Tories,
25:46and there are some Tories that, to their credit, are going after it. Others are faced with what they
25:55think is a dilemma as to whether to move towards reform or away. Um, despite the vocabulary, I think
26:07their leader is one of those in the dilemma section, um, um, and it would be a disaster if the
26:17Tories
26:18terminated themselves as a political party by becoming reform-like. All the political parties
26:27should do their best to, uh, expose, oppose, and diminish, reform, restore,
26:37will beat them by showing that they couldn't do and wouldn't want to do, uh, these, uh, advantageous
26:47and beneficial changes and advances. And that's the two ways, um, achieving an attack. That's the way
26:56to deal with them.
26:57So the pressure is on Andy Burnham then to achieve it?
27:01Yeah, but it'll come naturally to him.
27:03Neil, thank you so much for your time today. I really appreciate it.
27:06Neil, this is all mine.
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