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Europe Today : menaces de tarifs de Trump, discussions avec l’Iran et canicule en Europe

États-Unis et Iran reprennent les pourparlers au Qatar; l'Europe affronte canicule meurtrière et tensions commerciales avec Washington

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00:00Sous-titrage Société Radio-Canada
00:33This after Tehan said the Strait of Hormuz was under Iranian control
00:38and that further U.S. tax would only escalate the crisis.
00:41Over the weekend, it looked like the two countries could be back on the path to war
00:45despite signing a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict.
00:50Plus, Europe's early summer heatwave is turning deadly.
00:54According to the head of the World Health Organization,
00:57more than 1,300 deaths have been linked to extreme temperatures
01:01as record-breaking heat continues to sweep across the continent.
01:05It comes as politicians debate over air conditioning versus climate action.
01:10Meanwhile, trade tensions between the EU and China are back in focus
01:16as the Chinese Commerce Minister, Wang Wentao, meets the EU Trade Commissioner,
01:20Mara Sefcovic, today in Brussels.
01:23EU officials are describing the talks as a, quote,
01:27make-or-break moment for the future of trade relations.
01:31And Serbian President Aleksandar Wucic said on Saturday
01:34he would be stepping down in the very near future,
01:38paving the way for early presidential and parliamentary elections.
01:41This announcement comes after 18 months of anti-government protests.
01:46But first, the US and Iran have said they will continue their talks in Qatar tomorrow,
01:52aimed at ending the Middle East war.
01:54This comes after a weekend of strikes that looked to undermine the interim peace agreement
01:58and prompted President Donald Trump to threaten violence.
02:01Taking to truth social, the US president said this weekend,
02:05quote,
02:17Meanwhile, Lebanon rejected the latest US-Israel-Lebanon framework deal,
02:21calling it an agreement of dictates that fails to protect the rights of Lebanese people.
02:26For more, we can bring in Osama Rizvi, founder of Rizvi Insights.
02:30Good morning, Osama.
02:30Thank you so much for joining us.
02:32So it was a tense weekend,
02:34but now there does seem to be an agreement on the table to talk.
02:37Should we treat this announcement, though, with a degree of scepticism?
02:41Well, thank you so much for having me.
02:43I think, as we've discussed before,
02:45we will see this back and forth
02:46and the MOU will continue to be very fragile in its nature.
02:51It has to be like that.
02:52But when I look at it from a fundamental or practical point of view,
02:56even for the US side,
02:58the cost of inaction clearly outweighs that of the action.
03:02So if they go down further the path of escalation or a war,
03:06we will see a host of problems propping up
03:09from US Treasury yields rising to 5%,
03:12which has never happened before.
03:14And every time they neared 5%,
03:15we saw some sort of good news being released into the market.
03:19We will see oil prices once again rising up,
03:21election a year and so on and so forth.
03:23Whereas the cost of inaction would only be a loss of political capital.
03:27And if you look at the figures recently,
03:28it has already been depleting.
03:30So I think a practical and more sane way
03:32would be to go down the inaction pathway.
03:34And I think that is more probable, hopefully.
03:36And of course, we've seen the last couple of days
03:38tit-for-tat exchanges with Iran making it very clear, Osama,
03:42that they would be controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
03:44What's the biggest risk, do you think, in the next few days?
03:47I think, to borrow Bradford DeLong's word,
03:50this whole situation regarding Hormuz is a densely raided Gordian knot.
03:55So this ought to have such repercussions that nobody can understand.
04:00It will remain, unfortunately, as far as I see from a geopolitical point of view,
04:04it will remain under the control of Iran.
04:06Nobody will be able to open it from maybe, other than diplomacy.
04:11But at the same moment, at the same time,
04:14I think shipments and tankers will continue to flow
04:17because it serves both the sides.
04:19Well, you mentioned that word, diplomacy.
04:22Is there any realistic chance now for diplomacy?
04:25I think it is.
04:26The longer we go on without any serious escalation,
04:30the better the chances become of this conflict being resolved through diplomacy.
04:35However, we have to look at the past.
04:37We have to look at Israel.
04:38We have to look at Lebanon.
04:39There are so many actors involved.
04:40So I think it will remain precarious.
04:43It is tenuous.
04:44And the situation will keep everyone and all the markets on the edge of their seats.
04:49Very much on their toes.
04:50And just regarding the markets,
04:51we saw oil prices spiking since the attacks actually resumed.
04:55What are you looking out for this week?
04:57Oil prices are actually an oddity at the moment.
05:00If you look at the fundamentals,
05:01U.S. stocks are at 20 years lowest point.
05:04There is no reality in which WTI can be where it is right now.
05:07So either oil prices will reassess the risks and rise or maybe remain rage bound.
05:12I don't see them following to levels like 40 or 50 anytime soon.
05:16Okay, Osama Rizvi there with his eye on the ball.
05:19Thank you so much for your insights as always.
05:22Now the tension in the Middle East comes as the U.S. celebrates 250 years of independence.
05:28Last night here in Brussels, more than 7,000 people were wined and dined in true American style.
05:34From hot dogs to mac and cheese against a backdrop of rodeo games and cheerleaders,
05:38the U.S. Embassy pulled out all the stops to dazzle the Belgian capital.
05:42The festival that finished with a fireworks display
05:45came as President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on imports
05:49from any European country that levies a digital services tax on U.S. companies.
05:54For more, we're joined by our very own Stefan Colby.
05:56Stefan, never a dull moment really in the EU-U.S. transatlantic tie.
06:01What's behind this latest attack?
06:03Yeah, that's right, Maeve. Good morning.
06:06Well, Maeve, just when many in Brussels thought that the transatlantic trade dispute had calmed down,
06:12Donald Trump has reignited it with one of his toughest threats yet.
06:18So the U.S. president says any country imposing a digital services tax on American technology companies
06:23could face a 100% tariff on all exports to the United States.
06:28And he insists those tariffs would supersede any existing trade agreements.
06:34Now, the immediate targets here are European countries.
06:38For years, several EU member states, including France, Spain, Italy,
06:43have argued that U.S. tax giants such as Google, such as Amazon, Apple or Meta,
06:50generate billions, billions of euros in revenue in Europe while paying very little tax.
06:56And digital service taxes are designed to make those companies contribute more where they do business,
07:04which is actually here.
07:05Washington, however, sees these taxes as discriminatory because they disproportionately affect American tech companies.
07:13The European Commission has responded defiantly, saying the EU has every right to regulate and tax economic activity within its
07:23own market.
07:24And Brussels insists its rules are not discriminatory and has warned that it is prepared to respond if Washington follows
07:32through on its threat.
07:33The timing here is significant, Maeve, because only weeks after the U.S. and the EU reached a broader trade
07:41understanding that capped most tariffs at 15%,
07:44digital taxation remains one of the most important unresolved issues.
07:50And Trump's latest warning now risks opening an entirely new front in the transatlantic trade relationship.
07:57And, Stephen, meanwhile, of course, that party that took place last night to celebrate 250 years of independence.
08:03Security, of course, was very tight, but there were protesters gathering nearby.
08:08Some NGOs like Greenpeace rolling out banners saying war, greed, energy crisis.
08:13What is there to celebrate?
08:15Now, of course, the motto of the gathering last night was 250 years of independence, building our future together.
08:22Stephen, that sounds almost ironic given President Trump's real feelings for Europe.
08:25You were at the party last night.
08:28Did you see bad feelings?
08:30Well, Maeve, you're right.
08:32Trump doesn't like Europe.
08:34He hates the European Union.
08:36And he usually criticizes the EU in much harsher terms than, for example, Russia, China and North Korea, all countries
08:43without a liberal democracy.
08:46And on that motto, a building a future together.
08:51Look, it was a garden party to which U.S. embassies in foreign capitals typically invite host country officials and
09:00diplomats around the American Independence Day.
09:04Only this time it was much, much bigger.
09:07And you mentioned it.
09:08There were several thousands of what I call friends of America who were invited, people who in their day jobs
09:17deal with the United States one way or the other.
09:21And no, I did not register any bad feelings, au contraire, mainly because the organizers kept it apolitical.
09:29It was a rather timeless celebration of Americana that people, especially in Europe, love about the country, like line dancing,
09:37like mechanical bull rides, like baseball and American football.
09:41And because it was so apolitical, people had a good time.
09:46America is about more than Donald Trump.
09:50And Donald Trump as president, he is what he is.
09:53But throughout American history, there have been presidents who were considered unfit for the job.
09:59You know, the James Buchanan's, the Andrew Johnson's, the Herbert Hoover's.
10:04They come and they go.
10:06The same with Trump.
10:08So political differences should not stop us from celebrating American values and the friendship that many people on both sides
10:16of the Atlantic still cherish and hold dear.
10:19OK, Stefan Cobain, as you said, people had a very good time leaving with bags, of course, of American candy.
10:25Thank you so much for your analysis there.
10:28Now, moving on, the World Health Organization has said almost 1,300 deaths have been recorded since the deadly heat
10:35wave in Europe that began on the 21st of June.
10:38This weekend saw record temperatures hit Germany, Czechia, Poland and Hungary, with police in Berlin using water cannons to cool
10:45people down and German rail urging people to cancel their travel plans.
10:49For more, we can bring in Carla Wontempo, director of the Cupery Gronice Climate Change Service.
10:54Thank you so much for coming on Europe today.
10:57Just tell us, how unusual is this heat wave for late June?
11:00And can we expect this heat to continue into July?
11:03Well, I mean, what you were describing is the answer to your question, in a sense, because the conditions are
11:09extremely unusual.
11:10We see temperature 10, 12 degrees above the normal averages for France, for part of the UK.
11:18We've seen recent days.
11:20And as you said, now that the peak of the heat wave is moving east, we are seeing record-breaking
11:25temperature affecting eastern Germany, affecting Czechia and Poland.
11:29So this is very unusual.
11:30And at the moment, it doesn't necessarily look as the end is near.
11:36The peak, maybe in Western Europe, has been reached.
11:38But looking at the forecast, and for the forecast, the national climate services are the best place to look at.
11:44There is not a clear sign for rain coming in or a reduction, a massive reduction in temperature.
11:52And based on your expertise, is it climate change making these extreme heat events more frequent and more intense?
11:58Well, you know, as always, it's a combination.
12:00These events, high-pressure regions extending over Europe, have existed throughout history.
12:05We have seen many heat waves before this one, starting from the famous or infamous 2003 heat wave.
12:11But these same weather patterns are now operating in a world that is much, much warmer.
12:16And Europe is warming faster than the global average.
12:19And we see this heat wave becoming more frequent, more intense, lasting longer and starting earlier in the season.
12:25And what are the biggest health risks, especially for vulnerable people?
12:28We've already seen the deaths that have been announced from this.
12:31Yeah. And there is actually a paper that came out last week from a colleague of ours at the ECNWF,
12:38Rebecca Emerton, that was published in Nature.
12:40And she looked at the heat stress.
12:43And heat stress has gone up all over the globe, not just in Europe.
12:46And heat stress is a cause of death for many humans.
12:50And actually, the heat-related mortality in Europe, as the Lancet countdown pointed out a couple of years ago, has
12:57gone up 30% in the last 20 years.
12:59So having more heat waves means that actually our own risk of facing the consequences of heat stress has gone
13:06up very significantly and will continue to go up, unfortunately, as the temperature rises, not just in Europe, but across
13:13the world.
13:13OK, Carlo, buon tempo. Thank you so much for your analysis, as always, and for joining us here on the
13:19programme.
13:20Now, this latest heat wave that is, as we heard set to last, has triggered a fiery debate across Europe
13:26about the lack of infrastructure when it comes to air conditioning in homes, schools, public transport and workplaces.
13:32Europe's air conditioning issues is quite low compared to other continents, particularly North America and Asia, with only around 19
13:38% of households having air conditioning here.
13:40And in France, we've seen politicians laying the groundwork for their campaigns ahead of the elections next year, seizing upon
13:47the air conditioning debate.
13:48For more, we can bring in Diana Urgevors. That's the vice chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
13:54Good morning. Just tell us, what's your view here on this political debate over air con for all versus long
14:00term climate policies?
14:01Is this just addressing the symptoms and not really the root causes?
14:05Thank you very much. It's a very important question.
14:07Not only is it not only addressing the symptoms, but in fact, really aggravating climate change and aggravating even local
14:15warming in the cities,
14:16because air conditioning, what it does is actually puts the local indoor heat out on the streets.
14:22Actually, it makes the urban heat even worse.
14:24And also global warming, because cooling is expected to add 25% more electricity demand until 2030 than even data
14:36centers,
14:37which means that if we only compare to artificial intelligence, this is about five times as much.
14:42We talk a lot about the energy from artificial intelligence, but not so much from cooling.
14:47At the same time, of course, it is very important that we are providing thermal safety to our residents because
14:55heat is killing in Europe.
14:56It can kill as much as 40,000 to 60,000 excess deaths, so people in a hot summer all
15:05over Europe.
15:05So it is crucial.
15:06But I would consider more taking the Swiss approach, which means that we provide access,
15:13allow access to the elderly or the vulnerable groups.
15:16And otherwise, we try to implement measures that in the few really extreme days,
15:21such as what we are experiencing now in some countries and some countries are already over,
15:25we'd rather take temporary measures to provide safety, for example, in cooling centers during those days,
15:32which happen just a few days about every year.
15:35So far, for a while, it will really only hurt us a few days every couple of years.
15:41But then we have to take these measures, for example, cooling centers,
15:44or also have to accept that perhaps there will be temporary reductions in productivity
15:51and perhaps home officeing and other measures can help in these difficult situations.
15:57And I'm not sure if you've seen, but the European Commission is under criticism for turning off the AC
16:01for some of its staff and leaving it on for others higher up in buildings.
16:05I guess this shows really the wider problem we have across Europe, as you're describing, regarding access.
16:11Exactly. So access to air conditioning is a crucial issue.
16:15At the same time, it is also, again, important that to understand that the solution is not universal access to
16:22everywhere,
16:22everything, because right now, exactly the very reasons why it had to be turned off is because of capacity shortages.
16:29And if we suddenly try to provide access to everyone, that means that our capacities won't be able to survive,
16:37because we are now already jeopardizing the success of the green energy transition,
16:43because what we see is that we are now adding more energy demand that we are able to provide with
16:50new sources of renewable power,
16:52despite our unexpected success with the deployment of renewable energy sources.
16:58But certainly, of course, it doesn't mean that the elites of the elites will have to have access and the
17:04others don't.
17:05So we do have to look at everyone's needs.
17:09But again, I do believe that perhaps temporary measures where everyone has a temporary arrangement for these few days to
17:17get by
17:17and still be able to work, but even more to be able to stay healthy is more important than the
17:23solution to have full access immediately to everyone to air conditioning.
17:27Because the problem is, once you have access to air conditioning, the culture also changes.
17:33We have a lot of cultural adaptations to hot days and how we get by in heat.
17:40And we would lose all of this if we suddenly have all air conditioners.
17:45OK, Diana Urgevorsas, thank you so much for your insights there and for joining us.
17:49And now it's time for an update on the FIFA World Cup results.
17:58Well, it was a busy weekend with matches, with Austria qualifying in dramatic fashion after a 3-3 draw with
18:05Algeria on Sunday morning,
18:06becoming the last European team to book a place in the knockout stage.
18:10Three of the 16 teams heading home after the group stage are European, Czechia, Scotland and Turquia,
18:17with Turquia's exit probably the biggest surprise.
18:19That means 13 European teams are still fighting for glory.
18:24From now on, there are no more excuses.
18:26Meanwhile, after Host Nation Canada secured their place in the round of 16 last night,
18:31Germany and the Netherlands are both in action tonight.
18:34The Mannschaft takes on Paraguay, while another blockbuster will of course be Netherlands versus Morocco at 3am.
18:41With a large Moroccan community in the Netherlands, the stakes are high.
18:45Firebrand politician Gerd Filders added to the tension by posting a photo of himself dressed as a referee,
18:52showing Morocco a red card.
18:54Also on the menu, Brazil versus Japan at 7am.
18:57May the best teams win.
18:59But that brings this edition of Europe Today to an end.
19:02Thank you so much for your company.
19:04As always, of course, you can go to euronews.com for more news and analysis,
19:08or you can drop us a line at euronews.com with your feedback.
19:12Take care, see you soon and stay with us on European News.
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19:52Take care, see you soon again.
19:53Take care, see you soon and stay with us on European News.
19:56Take care, see you soon and stay with us on European News.
20:00In the하는!!!!!!
20:02TPSetsu
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