00:00we are talking about the washington capital joining us now you heard a little snapshot of
00:04ozzy there is our friend mr neil greenberg from the fancy stats sub stack what up greenberg how
00:09are you brother i'm doing great good to talk to you guys how's it going going good man we here's
00:16what we need neil get us up to speed on what appears to me two brit two pretty big trades
00:22for the caps let's start with uh cairoca i'm sure i said that right yeah i mean they uh the
00:29capitals
00:29kind of transformed their top six in less than 48 hours um this is uh they they do two different
00:39things um you know the the forward i got from st louis um kairu you know he i'm sorry jordan
00:52kairu
00:52correct yeah yeah um kairu is the upside play he had 18 goals 46 points um which looked
00:59disappointing compared to his other seasons but you know the underlying metrics suggest that he's
01:04played far better than those box score stats indicate um there are some uh less traditional
01:12stats out there that have been finishing uh in the 84th percentile offensively the 96th percentile
01:18defensively 91st percentile overall um when he was on the ice and it was controlled about 60 percent of
01:25the goals you would expect after adjusting for shot quality um he also led the blues in um five
01:32on five shot attempt differential with 136 dangerous rush shot attempts that was an area
01:38that washington struggled last season um so i think this is a classic buy low sell high situation
01:45um where the capitals appear to have done their due diligence and and got somebody that could uh provide
01:52some upside are these moves telling you anything in particular um i don't know if these are the
01:59moves you make if you think that your star uh superstar alice ovechkin is not going to be around next
02:06year
02:08um you know i think that you would that this this to me seems like they're building up around ovi
02:16right i agree i think if you're if you truly believe that ovechkin is not going to be on the
02:21roster you probably make moves that open the window two or three years from now i think
02:27these moves open the window for two or three years um and um you know alex toke from the buffalo
02:36buffalo um you know he's he's a guy you know 33 goals 66 points um very highly regarded by the
02:46uh
02:47by the advanced metrics um you know he's a legitimate top line winger who contributes at both ends of the
02:53ice um and uh he definitely tilts the ice as well i mean this is these are two really good
03:00trades i
03:00mean this is um as i said i think that this is you know trades that maybe you probably don't
03:05make
03:06if you think that your your horizon is further down the road because you're losing a superstar
03:12um i gotta give uh washington credit for it these seem like two really good um top six
03:19forwards that they're bringing in and then toke got a what eight-year deal yeah was that just a
03:23salary don't you know obviously you know he's in the long-term plans um you know they had to give
03:29up some stuff to get both these guys which you would expect um but you know toke's 33 goals
03:36based on his shot quality um and you know strength and all that stuff you'd expected him to score
03:43about 24 goals last year so there is a little bit of a discrepancy there um but uh he definitely
03:50tilted the ice for um you know for buffalo and you know look even if they got 25 goals from
03:57the guy
03:58you know i mean that's still pretty acceptable um considering where their top six is and um you
04:06know i have to believe that washington felt like um you know these there's obviously nothing but upside
04:12here um but um it does look like they prioritize some of the stats behind the box score on both
04:21these
04:21guys and feel like um you know the the sum that they that they add the value that they'll give
04:27washington is probably not fully realized yet talking with our buddy neil greenberg fancy stats
04:34sub stack make sure you're a subscriber um all right so you like both these moves the caps didn't
04:41have to give up much to get toke i guess buffalo just didn't want to pay him and knew he
04:45was going
04:45a free agency now the the move to get kairu from st louis about mcmichael and the 16th overall pick
04:52and a prospect do you think the compensation was fair how big of a deal is losing connor mcmichael
04:59i think it's a big deal um i think it's a big deal like i said if you're if you
05:04think you're not
05:04going to be able to contend for a couple years it's probably a bigger deal um but look you have
05:10to give up something to get something and you know the first round draft picks in the nhl
05:15um you know they function a lot differently than they do in some other sports i mean
05:20after the first couple of picks the chances of getting an nhl to even play 20 games in the nhl
05:26um drops pretty significantly and it drops you know rapidly after each successive pick
05:33um you know maybe you think that washington can draft better than most 16 you don't think
05:39you know doesn't sound like it's a very low pick but um you know again to get a proven
05:44performer versus a kid that you probably don't see for what two three four years at best um you
05:51know makes a lot of sense for for the squad especially um thinking that they can contend
05:56this year all right and so as as this gets moving forward what do we think of this caps roster
06:05i'll
06:06be totally honest i think there was more hype on connor mcmichael than probably was deserved and i
06:12swear some of it was just that his name was so close to connor mcdavid like i'm not that upset
06:17and he was the better mick mick player in the you know connor mick in the in the league at
06:23some
06:23points but um no he was he was he was a good young player um but again i mean you're
06:31you're getting
06:33you probably got the two best players in the trades right which which says something um and
06:42you know i do think look you have to give something to get something right i mean you do have
06:47to give
06:47something up of value um and again i think this more signals that washington is not ready to
06:53to fold it up yet and and move on to the post of etchkin era um i think they can
07:00they still believe
07:01that they can contend hockey is very fluky you know we saw these uh playoff teams uh you know
07:07how many wins that they had and how deep they went and you know you really just have to get
07:11into the
07:12playoffs and then figure everything else out from there um so i do think that uh you know the moves
07:18make a lot of sense for washington um carolina is obviously the cream of the crop in the in the
07:24metro but um you know they had more points than pittsburgh who made the playoffs more wins i
07:31should say and they had as many wins as philadelphia who was in the playoffs so you know
07:36they're not that far behind it's a very contentious division and you know two top six forwards can make
07:41a huge impact in getting you where you want to be so you believe this move made them more of
07:46a
07:46contender i think it at the very least it doesn't drop them at a contender status um you know they
07:55they they could have just as easily you know fire sailed this whole thing and then we're looking at
08:00you know like uh um you know chicago winnipeg rebuilding type situation but that's not what i
08:07see i see that they they feel like they kind of missed it by inches in the metro the playoffs
08:13last
08:13year um and this gets them over that hump and basically in they had to make trades here because
08:20this free agent session in hockey is not expected to be a world beater right yeah and you and it
08:29probably also is a referendum on the draft too to say okay we can give up you know a first
08:33round
08:34draft pick in the middle or so to get a proven player that can help us right now um you
08:41know look
08:41sometimes these type of trades look great on paper or at least are explainable um and end up
08:47fizzling out but you know looking at the underlying numbers and exactly where they fit and what
08:52washington needed um you know i think that they were two really smart trades by washington's front
08:59office okay um got our buddy neil greenberg from the fancy stats sub stack well greenberg let me
09:05sneak in a whiz one uh aj debons is the number one overall pick what do you think is he
09:10the right fit
09:12yeah i think you had to go with the best player i don't really think there was ever a chance
09:16they
09:16weren't taking him any any smoke that we heard was probably just to see what someone would offer
09:22for the number one pick um but i think it's a solid signing if they got you know they got
09:28a really
09:29interesting roster going into this next season um i've been a trey young fan for a while i i like
09:37what
09:37he does obviously anthony davis is um you know can has done a lot in his career and can certainly
09:44you know be a focal point but that gives you three players um you know not including alex saar
09:51that um you can you can rely on and um you know really build around i mean that's a solid
09:59foundation
09:59we've talked about this before the nba you know has become a multi-star league in terms of on the
10:05roster um they could certainly have that um and i think they can jump into the playoff picture i don't
10:13know you know how how um how competitive they can be that we'll have to wait to see mostly on
10:20health and stuff but um you know to see them jump from seven what your range that just doesn't seem
10:27far-fetched to me based on what they have going on right now i agree they have a lot of
10:32pieces i think
10:33also young pieces that can help them out tremendously hey yeah you know we talked about this with
10:37washington commanders a couple years ago when you know jane daniel was there we talked about
10:42expectations and how you know the upside was pretty big i mean the upside for washington is tremendous
10:48for the wizards because you look they're probably not going to get much worse than 17 wins there's
10:53very few nba teams do um and as i said they have a lot of pieces there they're going to
10:58be
10:58i think they're going to be the sexy pick in terms of you know jumping into the contender
11:03conversation um but i really do think over 40 wins is is very reasonable hey oh i just pressed
11:13something everybody still hear me i can hear you okay great um greenberg how much are you enjoying
11:19brandon iuk social media this is a roller coaster i it's a wild ride i look if he ends up
11:32in washington
11:32it's going to be the biggest like um you know like of course this happened why did it take so
11:40long
11:40why do we have to endure it all and if not it's going to be like what was all these
11:44like what was it
11:44all for like it was like a big letdown um my hope is he comes to washington and just and
11:53it's lights out
11:54he just has like a career year and sandbags everyone and and then right and then and that
12:02happens but um it's enjoyable um look there's not a lot of the nfl off season content yet so
12:09you got to be grateful for what you have hell yeah we'll do an hour on the phones later greenberg
12:14thank you buddy appreciate the time love you guys talk to you soon good to hear from you brother
12:19that's our guy neil greenberg the fancy stats sub stack make sure you are subscribing you can give
12:26him a follow at n greenberg
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