- 2 hours ago
Neil Greenberg joins the show to recap the NBA and NHL playoffs so far.
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00are fired up to jump on the rude guest hotline welcome in our friend mr neil greenberg from the
00:05fancy stats sub stack what's up greenberg how you doing man how are you we're good we're good i think
00:13we'll all kind of find out together how is the sub stack going dude sub stack's going well um
00:21my voice is not due to allergies but um sub stack's doing good
00:28i'm sorry the rain may help yeah i hope so it can't get any worse like the pollen is like
00:34one
00:34on the car so um yeah sub stack is good be sure to subscribe so you don't miss anything okay
00:41um
00:42dude if you're sick or whatever and you need to go like just go you tell it's looking really good
00:49it's it's funny because there were so many people down on him a couple years ago um and here he
00:54is
00:55just um lights out for colorado um you know let's face it colorado's quick they got they they're
01:03really good at moving the puck they're deep um and they're exposing minnesota's injury issues
01:07and also minnesota's struggling on special teams so yeah it's tough to see colorado losing this and
01:14you know like you said about carolina i mean they just completely controlled the series against
01:18the flyers the two and oh another overtime win um they got the four check the depth um the defense
01:25to to make a big run here too it's remarkable watching them in this series against the wild they
01:32can just score whenever they want to um within locally the the biggest question is kind of what's
01:40going to happen with ovi um and the caps it's crazy to see the flyers are into the second round
01:45of
01:45the playoffs because that easily could have been washington i know it's not i'm not making excuses
01:49but what do you think happens with ovi and and what this team looks like next year
01:56i think waving off the penguins of the the farewell line was was a signal that he's probably going to
02:03try to return for another year um that's my guess i think at this point you have to let ovechkin
02:13write his own ending and that could constrain the team a little bit because you're going to pay him
02:18what he wants but there's a lot of young talent with with um washington like you said it very easily
02:24could have been them and not philadelphia in the playoffs um so i think he's going to come back
02:29for a year um i think that's what the fans want the fans want to know with some certainty to
02:34say their
02:36goodbyes um and i think if if the upside with the youth movement in washington kind of comes to
02:45fruition you know i think that they they could be a playoff team whether they're a cup contender we
02:50have to wait and see but um a lot of talent there and you know i saw some rumblings of
02:56getting the
02:57other connor mick player maybe connor mcdavid to washington which uh yeah back the truck up here
03:07that's a rumor now is mcdavid i've seen that in a couple places i i don't put much stock into
03:12it but
03:13you know you want to talk about making a statement i mean if they can somehow finagle that that would
03:20be obviously pretty big but i i don't see it happening but it's fun to think about that you
03:26know they have the second best connor mc player on the team as well so you think this is a
03:32one-year
03:32deal one more and then that's it and i think if he's coming back for one year fans that sit
03:38up here
03:38and say we want to know just start giving your love right now because next year we're not gonna hear
03:43this again yeah i mean so he scored 32 goals i mean he's you know this wasn't a five goal
03:49season
03:49he played 82 games he scored 32 goals had another 32 assists i mean he's 40 years old if he
03:56wants to
03:57play let him play um you know who am i or anybody to say it's time for him to hang
04:02it up i mean
04:04you know 30 goal scorers don't grow on trees he brings people into the state into the arena
04:10and like i said earlier he deserves to write his own ending and if he wants to play if you're
04:16the team
04:16you just have to you have to eat it because but see that's the question i asked though he scores
04:2130
04:22goals this year you're gonna play that you have to play the team has to play that game again
04:27i look i learned a long time ago not to bet against him i'm just asking questions because
04:32eventually it gets to the point where you got to make a move about the future and not about a
04:36person
04:37i understand that but in my opinion the organization is kind of at his mercy and if he wants to
04:46come
04:46back at 10 11 12 million dollars a year that's that's a pill that you got to swallow um talking
04:55with our friend neil greenberg check out his fancy stats sub stack um all right let's switch to the
05:01hoops can anybody beat the thunder um the colorado of the nba probably not right um you know they're
05:12they're legit um i'm looking at projections that give them a 54 chance to win the finals
05:20that's a huge number for four percent to win wow yeah to win the final that's a that's a huge
05:26number i
05:26don't know if i would i don't know if i would put stock in that exact number but directionally the
05:33next best team does not even have that it's about 19 with detroit so you know like directionally you
05:39got to think that it's going to be oklahoma city this year they i mean the lakers have no shot
05:46um
05:47do you think the the sixers are back on the night they got boat raced to game one
05:51you mentioned i both kind of expected that um just i thought their legs would be exhausted
05:57just kind of gas coming down the high of game seven in boston do you think sixers knicks can
06:02end up being a good series no i think the knicks are playing too well um i'm sure something awful
06:10will happen and the wheels will come off that bus but this is a knicks team that um i mean
06:17they're
06:17just dominating philadelphia um the way that they dominated the hawks in like the last three games
06:23you know the team that seemingly found another gear um 137 to 98 that's a show and that's coming off
06:31a
06:31149 win against atlanta like you say to yourself okay they can't keep blowing teams out but you know
06:37here they are four games in a row complete laughers um i think uh i think new york looks too
06:43good
06:44yeah i mean they've been really good you think the knicks could get to the finals then
06:49i do and that's just not homerism i think i think that they're just they found it you know we
06:57talk
06:57about the unquantifiable the intangibles or whatever it is that you want to call it i mean
07:02they have it right now and in the nba that can carry you through the series um i don't know
07:11if they
07:11can beat detroit not sure that they can um is anybody in the east capable beating okc
07:20i mean it doesn't look like it no it doesn't look like it um but i tell you what though
07:27if
07:27for the knicks to even just get in there that's like such a huge deal for this franchise which
07:33you know let's face it they've just been they've been struggling quite a bit and um
07:39you know you i mean we haven't they this is something that they that they need i think i
07:46mean they just need to to be able to break through um let's get to football because you had a
07:51a tweet
07:52that i found pretty interesting if you're interested you can follow greenberg at n greenberg uh data
07:58analytics sports writer stats geek not nerd now for the fancy stats sub stack was at the washington
08:04post for a very long time explain to me this thing you're saying about the price that vegas
08:12has set for the eagles to win the most nfl games this coming season where you see it and why
08:19there
08:19might be some value there yeah so there's a price out there for the eagles to have the most wins
08:25in
08:25the nfl next year at 1400 um i priced that at 1230 um so there's a little bit of an
08:34edge there but a
08:34one two percent edge and you know that's just modeling the season but you know let's just look
08:40at it you know from the top down eagles 10 and a half wins win total same as the lions
08:46packers
08:48seahawks 49ers bills chiefs chargers right like they're all in that mix you have the ravens and
08:55um the rams a little bit higher than that so it's probably going to be one of those teams
09:02um why can't it be the eagles i mean they they're they're in a division with two teams that aren't
09:08expected to be very good in the giants and the commanders which we can have a conversation about
09:13um the cowboys aren't supposed to be really good they're supposed to be like a middling type team
09:18um so i think that you know you look at um you know where they are relative to the landscape
09:26of
09:26the nfl and you know i i think that that price is is good i mean now's the time to
09:33be shopping for
09:34nfl futures because we're right after the draft we're after off season um all the feel-good stories
09:41are out there um but we really don't know what to expect so um you know i think the eagles
09:48are
09:48slightly mispriced on that particular future do you not have any concerns with the eagles
09:55taking a step back i mean aj brown leaving was bad aj brown leaves i mean i got tons of
10:02concerns
10:02look if we didn't have concerns it wouldn't be 12 plus 1200 right it'd be plus 500 so yeah of
10:07course
10:08there's concerns about everything there's concerns about you know the the broncos taking a huge step
10:13back because they did so well in one one win games there's concerns about the chiefs you know
10:18last year not being a blip right like you know they have a 10 and a half win uh preseason
10:24win total
10:25um you know the bills could get injured the the ravens you know lamar jackson could get injured i mean
10:31but again that's why we're getting you know 14 to 1 if it was a if it was a layup
10:36it'd be 3 to 1
10:37um you said something we're talking with our friend neil greenberg fancy sat sub stack long
10:42time guest us the junks everybody here on the on the station long time writer for the washington
10:47post now running his own sub stack where you get all the great betting information fantasy
10:52information you said something that i i gotta circle back to you don't think washington's going
10:56to be very good i'm looking at like where the betting markets are and i have washington at number
11:0423 two points per game worse than than an average team our neutral field why um i have them with
11:12the
11:12giants the saints the falcons and the titans now a lot can you know look if jayden's healthy if they
11:22get some wide receiver help if you know the the defense is is better with after the draft you know
11:29there certainly could be some improvement but i think right now we're looking at them as being in
11:34the bottom third of the nfl could this be a situation where looking at what they did last year
11:40just like what they did in 2023 and having something like a 2024 season well you probably gotta look in
11:48the middle right it's if they weren't as good as they were two years ago when they made the conference
11:53championships and you know they certainly weren't as bad last year with all the injuries so they're
11:58probably in the middle but where's that middle eight nine wins you know that's that's gonna put
12:06them kind of like average or below so i i i think that's kind of where the market's pricing them
12:12right
12:12now that's interesting do you think the cowboy i i think we we don't honestly know what washington's
12:20going to be because you got two new coordinators like there's so much unknown i think they've done a lot
12:25positive steps specifically on defense to address problems we don't know if those problems are fixed
12:31probably till halloween how do you think jayden daniels though could flourish in a new different
12:37offensive system it could be great it could be exactly what i said two years ago where i really i
12:45believe the upside is higher than the downside because let's face it it's really hard to only win
12:50four games in the nfl and you know i don't think washington's there i think their floor is probably
12:55six or seven wins but their ceiling is easily 10 wins 11 wins if everything works out just like we
13:03talked about two years ago um so that's kind of where i'm looking at it you know you gotta remember
13:08these are just projections and like you said nobody knows anything we're all guessing everyone's guessing
13:15um but you got to be able to make those adjustments quick and you know i think the way to
13:20make the
13:20adjustment early is to better optimism for washington but just make sure you're getting a fair price
13:27because you know right now they do look like a bottom third team okay um what do you think of
13:33dallas
13:33the offense obviously has been able to cook but you've got maybe this lingering george pickens thing
13:39and they try to get a lot better on defense but will it work i have cowboys as an average
13:45team them
13:46in the bucks um so i think that they're probably eight nine win team and you know like you said
13:53if
13:54their floor is probably a lot lower the ceiling may not be as high because we kind of know what
13:59we get
13:59with dallas but um the floor is pretty low um so i would go the opposite way with with cred
14:06i can see them
14:08i can easily see us in whatever it is you know january talking about these two teams reversed
14:14and obviously washington being the better team and i would bet on washington being the better team
14:20but going into the season with everything that we know now cowboys project a little bit higher
14:27it's crazy man yeah just i saw the nfl schedule i don't know if you guys saw this last night
14:33during
14:33one of the basketball games it must have been early in lakers thunder the nfl ran a scheduled release
14:38promo for may they didn't even announce the date yet and it got me fired up just get ready just
14:45watching it um it's it's going to be uh you know it's it's by far the behemoth of the sports
14:53world
14:54and i think it just continues to grow and grow and grow and i i don't know where it kind
15:01of goes
15:02next obviously um it's gonna keep going forward yeah well it's the only schedule release that has
15:07a three-day news cycle because they kind of they drip it out it gets leaked and then they drip
15:13it
15:13out and then you have all the analysis afterwards it's like a three or four day story just on the
15:18schedule
15:18you
15:18you
15:18you
15:18you
15:18you
15:18you
Comments