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Neil Greenberg joins the show to give the guys his favorite sleepers heading into the NCAA Tournament.
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00:00and that is our friend mr neil greenberg of the fancy stats sub stack what's happening greenberg
00:05how you been buddy i'm doing great how are you boys doing i thought i was gonna hear from you
00:10yesterday me too st patrick's day green and greenberg i just told ryan he don't know how
00:18to really play the bits right gotta play to your strengths yeah man greenberg is that irish name
00:24that everyone knows and loves hey i just heard the green that's all it was all right dude um
00:33i am now a subscriber to fancy stats i think everyone should be um we all know kind of what
00:40happened at the post and how dumb and sad it all is but it seems like everybody's kind of landing
00:44on their feet doing their own thing and i'm glad to see it um this time i the floor is
00:50open to you
00:50if you want to address it or we can just talk some sports yeah i'm just um i got a
00:56couple of
00:56things i'm working on this is one of them um and uh i gotta say i am really humbled by
01:03the
01:04support i've gotten for this sub stack i'd never i never thought that um i just was skeptical um but
01:11uh every day i get more and more support so i appreciate it i'm trying to just bring the same
01:17coverage that i brought to the washington post here and um some stuff that um maybe i wasn't
01:23able to do before some new stuff that i've been working on um so yeah i figured march madness was
01:28the best time to really kick it off love it all right and there's a can i get a bracket
01:33dog there's
01:34a reason we want you on today because brackets start tomorrow there were the play-in games last night
01:41congratulations to howard um nc state versus texas set the game of basketball backwards um
01:47but that said let's get down to it i get the emails i'm a subscriber i am debating getting in
01:54a
01:54a single high dollar bracket challenge and i have not filled that bracket out yet because i want to talk
02:00to you no pressure um how big is the uh the pool two hundo no not dollars how many people
02:10i don't know because that's really the key to filling out a bracket is the size of the pool
02:16the smaller the pool the more chalk that you want the bigger the pool the more risk that you have
02:22to
02:22take because let's just you know use for example duke um duke could be used on what 30 percent of
02:28brackets as the winner out there you look at the top four seas in general they can account for what
02:3360 70 percent of all brackets um so if you're in a really big pool um if you have one
02:39of those
02:40as your winner you have to really differentiate yourselves down the bracket you know especially
02:45in the round of 64 and the round of 62 and you have to be right um so i it
02:50really does matter how
02:51big the pool is if it's a really large pool um you want to take some risks and and perhaps
02:57stay away
02:57from most of the number one seeds getting to the final four um you know that includes duke that
03:04includes florida that includes arizona um i would probably look at michigan as to be the the one
03:10that i would single there but then you really want to take some swings and um you know really does
03:17depend on on the size of the bracket okay um beyond like the gameplay of the brackets let's just talk
03:24about matchups you like matchups you don't the east region is loaded i mean that is that is a
03:30serious seriously stacked region yeah um obviously you have number one duke you have two uconn two of
03:36the best programs um you know per you know annually let alone this year um i love number 11 south
03:44florida
03:45this year um i also love uh st john's from queens their number five seed um i think that they're
03:52a
03:52little underseeded st john's and i'm i'm actually a big believer in them this year um they're my
03:58championship pick i don't want to make any spoilers but um you know for a big bracket they would be
04:03my
04:04championship pick uh but yeah the east is tough um i i liked both texas and nc state um as
04:15individual
04:16teams especially in double digit seeds that could make some stuff happen i was a little sad to learn
04:21they both played each other in the first four uh but i do think that that that um they could
04:27be
04:27dangerous it's unfortunate that they got gonzaga um looming in the round of 32 if they make it that
04:34far because i do think gonzaga's tough um and you know let's talk about howard for a second i mean
04:39howard i know they had to make the play in game um and i wouldn't pick a 16 seed to
04:46upend the number
04:47one but if i was it was going to be howard this year i think that they have the best
04:51chance albeit a
04:52slim chance um i'm not surprised that they won the other night and uh i think that you know as
04:59far
04:59as just a real hail mary long shot there they look pretty good from that aspect um so i think
05:06there's
05:07a couple of a couple of double digits he's like missouri that i think could do pretty well in the
05:12tournament um but i i expect it to be chalky like it was last year do you think uh the
05:18injuries that
05:19duke is dealing with will be something to happen in this tournament or not i do yeah and i i
05:24think
05:25that's a real good reason to fade them um you know you filling out the bracket isn't so much
05:31as selecting teams as it is eliminating teams as well and you know again if you're a lot of people
05:38going to have all the number one seeds basically but mostly because they're really good but also
05:42because of what happened last year so they're going to be i think over picked and starting with
05:49duke and the fact that you can you know at least come up with a plausible case as to why
05:54they might
05:54not be as dominant in the tournament as they were during the season injuries certainly play a role
05:58there it's going to be just chaos man um what do you think of the gators what do you what
06:05do you
06:05think of florida and then if it all breaks that way they could end up playing houston in houston
06:11yeah i've loved florida for a while i'm actually sitting on a florida to make the final four
06:18uh plus 900 um i got that a couple months ago wow um they uh they were not being given
06:26a lot of
06:27love despite the advanced metrics liking them quite a bit um and i think i even tweeted about it i
06:33have
06:34to go back and look uh but yeah florida doesn't surprise me um i i am fading houston
06:41in the sweet 16 in favor of illinois um that conference has underwhelmed in the tournament
06:49for years um they get a lot of wins but not nearly as many as they should um they do
06:55get a lot of
06:55teams in the bracket and i think you know a lot of the the teams from that conference houston arizona
07:01um i'm actually fading and um i feel fine about it interesting so if you're you're fading the big
07:0912 you don't think you think arizona goes down early too huh well i mean i their path is relatively
07:17easy i mean liu then they have villanova um and then um you know may i actually have them playing
07:25hawaii in the sweet 16 a 13 seed who who i like as a as a you got them beating
07:30arkansas not believing
07:32no i'm not no um so i the path is there but i have them losing to number 10 missouri
07:42so i feel
07:42fine differentiating my bracket that way um you know again the number one seeds are probably the
07:47strongest we've ever seen definitely during the since 2011 when the when the uh field expanded to
07:5468 teams i mean this is a very top heavy this is a very top heavy bracket and you know
08:00i don't know
08:01if you've noticed but you look at the the odds there aren't a lot of double digit usually we see
08:06like one or two double digit seeds that are favorites slight favorites we're not seeing that at all this
08:11year you know advanced analytics are being more and more incorporated into how these teams are seated
08:16so you're getting less teams slipping through the cracks you know less sleepers than we have in past
08:23years um so i i think that the you know the top seeds are going to have a a pretty
08:28decent run
08:29uh over the first weekend or two uh but then like i said i mean you have to you have
08:35to make some
08:35choices and i'm fine with my bracket being first or last like i don't i don't care about the middle
08:41area i'm not looking to be competitive i'm not looking to look good among my peers i want a bracket
08:47that can win and i'm okay taking calculated risks even if that means it's a first weekend flame out and
08:53i
08:53come in last well we normally see 12s upset fives which actually you see 11s upset six way more
09:00often well what 12 you think it upset he's been on his he's looking for his 12 he's been on
09:05this
09:05i like high point i was looking at that um if northern iowa wasn't playing st john's i'd probably
09:12take them um but i like uh i like uh and i like akron too i don't i i like
09:19them i like texas tech
09:20better i think that's a tough matchup for them but i i i did have akron also circled as a
09:26double
09:26digit c that i was hoping would get a a favorable matchup i think texas tech might be a little
09:31too
09:31tough um so if you're fading the big 12 are you fading the sec too kind of sounds like no
09:38no the
09:39numbers suggest the big 12 are have woefully underperformed their seed um over the past uh
09:46you know since 2011 i mean they're they get a lot of teams in they get a lot of teams
09:51that are high
09:51seeds they just they don't they don't pay dividends like like some of the other conferences do and
09:56you know like i said you have to pick your spots and i'm fine fading what is it two the
10:03three top four
10:04seeds top five seeds i mean i'm i'm fine with that i'm fine with taking that stand
10:09gotcha so what is your final four greenberg uh st john's illinois number three illinois
10:15number 10 missouri number one michigan and and then i have st john's beating michigan in the final
10:21so you have i'm sorry michigan st john's i got that who are the other two number three illinois
10:28who i like quite a bit i like that guard a lot um and number 10 missouri i think that
10:33they can
10:33surprise as a tendency wow mizzou all the way the all the mizzou mafia nerds would be all
10:39out in full force we had a really big missouri contingent at the washington post big journalism
10:44school i yeah i don't know if that's just my bias or maybe i've been brainwashed but so you got
10:49missouri beating per don't as jp says they are they're that's a prime per don't thing yeah that
10:56would be the elite eight per don't lose to mizzou although if queens was actually from queens
11:01the number 15 c's i picked them um what is a player that you think could go on a run
11:08and like
11:08i guess maybe it's mizzou you're saying who like who's the one dude you think we'll all be talking
11:14about in 10 days uh that's a good that's a good question um i mean lendenborg out of michigan is
11:22really good um you have um who's the kid from uh iowa state joshua jefferson um you know he could
11:31put up a double double at any time he can he can dish the he can dish the basketball as
11:36well um
11:38you know boozer obviously is there with duke um what do you think about uva in this tourney
11:46you know i struggle with that a little bit um i i struggle with uva um i i couldn't find
11:56my way
11:57to to getting them very far um i i wanted to and like i i just looked at at where
12:07they were and and
12:08and who was in front of them and um it was just uh it was a tough spot for me
12:13um i like vcu though
12:16i think vcu could uh could make a little splash but um that's about as far as i go vcu
12:24beating
12:24carolina um yeah i had vcu beating carolina and then losing to illinois yeah carolina plays great
12:32against duke right other teams they don't seem like that i think the kate wilson injury just kind of
12:37sank them where will you just need like if it were as chalky as we were last year those um
12:45double
12:46digit seeds winning in the first round are going to be really big because those are the ones that
12:52are less likely to be had by people picking more chalky brackets i one team i'm not in on and
13:00i know
13:00everybody will talk to tell me i'm crazy because tom is so i don't think michigan state's all that good
13:04they don't have like a a dude that's going to score you know what i mean yeah um i i
13:12have them
13:12losing to south florida in the round of 32 so i'm i'm i'm with you there i'm not really a
13:17big
13:17a big believer in what they got you know tom is another one of those guys uh coaches that
13:25i don't know you like you want to believe within him in march madness but it never really kind of
13:29pans out as much as you'd like um i do like jeremy fears i think that um you know he's
13:35he's really
13:35good led the team in scoring in minutes um he's uh he can really pass the ball got great vision
13:42um so i'm um i like him i don't like the team that's around him for for a deep uh
13:48tournament run
13:49i mean dude the east regional here at cap one arena you could easily be looking at duke st john's
14:00i mean yukon yukon i mean you could be looking at michigan state right like or if st john's isn't
14:07there it's probably going to be kansas you know yeah it's just what a great time to to get the
14:14regional i mean this is a stacked uh you know if it was in soccer they maybe call like the
14:19region of death yeah the group of death right last time yeah i mean it was going to be some
14:24really good basketball and you know i gotta tell you i've been to a lot of um i've been to
14:29a lot of
14:30like big east tournaments and at madison square garden and i mean it is electric when you have
14:36just uh a packed house just blocks of fans for both sides um it's going to be it should be
14:44a really
14:45fun night um you know especially considering the type of talent that could be in that building
14:50dude i remember last i believe last time the regional final was here at cap one and it was
14:56duke versus michigan state was zion williamson and it was an electric atmosphere and oh yeah every
15:03time he touched the ball uh because you know you knew at that point that he was going to be
15:07the
15:07number one pick and right there was just so much buzz around him um yeah i mean it just uh
15:14absolutely
15:14crazy i remember something similar with like when i saw stefan marbury at msg that's cool um same type
15:21of thing like you just knew he was going to be great and and every time he touched the ball
15:25like the
15:25place just went ballistic playing for georgia tech at that point or like i actually saw him at the high
15:31school all-star game that they had at msg um and when i tell you that he was a man
15:39among boys like
15:41it wasn't even close it was like that seinfeld episode where kramer is doing karate against like
15:47the seven-year-old right um yeah it was just like everyone came to see him it was before he
15:53left
15:54for school um and the place was packed and every single one of them was a starberry fan well dude
16:00i
16:01remember the 2003 capital classic they played in a cap one and lebron was out there i remember being
16:09there watching lebron who at that point was already pretty famous um chris paul played in that game
16:15um and you could tell the kind of talent he had um i remember kenny a beckway that went to
16:21maryland
16:21but watching lebron actually as a high schooler it is a very different feeling yeah you don't forget
16:28it and like you see the talent disparity disparaging and uh back disparity um but yeah this is why
16:36you know march madness is great there's so many good stories and there's so many lasting impressions
16:40and you know you get to see these kids develop into the nba and um you know it's just such
16:47an
16:47exciting time one of my favorite times of the year
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