00:00And now in this context we welcome journalist Aminta Seah who is currently in Lebanon and will help us analyze
00:06the situation in the region regarding the recent reports of a halt of Israeli strikes in the enclave Aminta. It's
00:12a pleasure to have you here from the south in Telesur English. Welcome.
00:23Hello Aminta, welcome to Telesur English.
00:29Hi, thanks so much for having me.
00:31Okay, so our first question is, there are reports of a ceasefire in Lebanon. In this regard, how fragile is
00:38that ceasefire in this region? And what can we expect during the talks between Iran and the United States?
00:48Especially withstanding the multiple ceasefire violations
00:52that Israel has implemented since the beginning of this war, and more notably in a particular post-Al-Aqsa flood
00:59moment, right?
01:00The diplomatic framework that has been completely inverted, however, by Iran's leverage, it is anchored in this newly signed memorandum
01:07that they had with the United States.
01:09And here, clause 13 is the linchpin. No final nuclear or sanctions negotiations will proceed until a total ceasefire is
01:18secured in Lebanon.
01:19So it's really fundamental that the Iranians are also protecting the sovereignty of the Lebanese people in these agreements.
01:26And Iran really has been able to transform its positionality within our geopolitical moment as a result of the U
01:33.S.-Israeli aggression that has particularly ensued in the beginning of this year.
01:38If we see here, for example, the negotiations won't be accepted, not only if the ceasefire is not fully secured
01:47in Lebanon, but additionally, the Iranians are arguing that they need to have the withdrawal of Israel,
01:52the blockade of a naval blockade particularly, and also the release of Iran's block assets, with OFAC already issuing 60
02:00-day waivers for oil and petrochemical sales.
02:03Iran has officially entered the Lebanese security architecture through a new conflict control unit that explicitly excludes Israel.
02:11This is a stark rebuke to years of U.S. efforts to sever Beirut-Tehran ties, which not only included
02:17sanctions, but also ambassador expulsions and U.N. complaints, efforts that now would backfire tremendously.
02:24So when we see, for example, U.S. Vice President Vance suggesting that Iran would spend the release funds on
02:29American agricultural goods,
02:31we see the response from Iranian foreign ministry spokesmen delivering a very bold but necessary statement saying,
02:41we find it interesting that the goal of the war, the destruction of Iranian civilization, has been reduced to enriching
02:46American farmers.
02:47So this really underscores Iran's refusal to be cast as a supplicant and its insistence on controlling its own financial
02:54destiny.
02:54And obviously, this is most best viewed, this is best viewed, excuse me, in the closing now of this rate
03:01of Hormuz as a result of the U.S.-Israeli aggression,
03:05and also the allies that U.S. and Israel has particularly also in Western Europe.
03:10So this is a particularly very fragile ceasefire.
03:13It's also worth mentioning that, you know, still here in the south of Lebanon, you know, just 48 hours ago,
03:20Israel already had massacred over 150 civilians, carpet bombing areas far from front lines like in Saida,
03:26where over now 30 people have been killed and 25 have been wounded.
03:30Since the start of the war this year, we have over 8,000 Lebanese civilians that have been massacred by
03:37the U.S. and Israel,
03:40and additionally over now upwards to 12,000 civilians injured.
03:44So the situation is still very, very fragile as the U.S. is not willing to, I think, really accept
03:51its defeat
03:51and accept that the Iranians particularly are ready to give it their all, I think, in the protection of not
04:00only their sovereignty or the sovereignty of Lebanon,
04:02but also the sovereignty, I would argue, of all nation states in the global south vying for an alternative mode
04:10of development.
04:12And also regarding what you were saying about the Membrandum of Understanding,
04:16Israel announced its agreement regarding the cease of hostilities in all fronts, including Lebanon.
04:22Do you think, are we witnessing a tactical disagreement between allies,
04:26or does this reflect deeper divergences regarding the future of the region?
04:33I think really what we're seeing a lot of the tension is particularly between the United States and Israel.
04:38Now, of course, we can really observe Israel as a U.S. proxy, right?
04:43We see, for example, the political economy of Israel is one that is inherently embedded in its military output.
04:51So, but at the same time as well, Israel is only able to produce its military weaponry in sort of,
05:01we see this reified in sort of the bloodshed of people here in West Asia, for instance.
05:05The United States is not the center where this productive capacity is being held at its highest point, right?
05:14The U.S. outsources a lot of its military capacity to other regions, including, but notwithstanding, Israel, for example.
05:22However, we see particular tensions between, for example, J.D. Vance and Trump,
05:27alongside with Netanyahu, seeing how the current Israeli government is really vying for a more almost like Spartan-esque military
05:37strategy.
05:38And that's sort of how it's been able to engage in this particular yet very fragile state-making process.
05:45This militaristic model and also, you know, Netanyahu finds himself also within this high-tech normalization project really deepens the
05:54internal contradictions as even U.S. allies begin to balk at the end of these excessive aggression.
06:02So, I mean, we really see, again, this relentless aggression exposes a core vulnerability.
06:07Israel cannot sustain its war machine without direct U.S. support, having run out of ammunition six to seven times
06:13in recent conflicts,
06:14and relying entirely on imported American and European heavy components for its tanks and aircrafts.
06:20So, seeing sort of this tension and then also seeing how the diplomatic framework, you know, is now, Iran kind
06:29of has the upper hand.
06:30We're really going to be seeing some interesting, I think, statements between, you know, U.S. and Israel,
06:36despite them being obviously allies, there's still a high degree of tension.
06:41And, of course, it's important to certainly mention the rather, I would argue, pathetic sort of posture that the actual
06:49Lebanese government has been instituting within this regional equation.
06:55We have Lebanese President Joseph Owen, who received a call from J.D. Vance and also Marco Rubio,
07:01where U.S. officials explicitly reaffirmed their commitment to implementing the Switzerland understandings,
07:06which is crucially confirming the formation of a joint cell involving the U.S., Lebanon, and Iran to consolidate the
07:13ceasefire and oversee implementation.
07:15But yet it still, you know, owns administration that is really kind of putting their head down,
07:21bowing their head down to Vance, Rubio, and Netanyahu,
07:24and while Lebanon's own civilians are being massacred.
07:27We really only see degrees of actual resistance and the actual advancement of any kind of peace project.
07:36through the resistance pushed through by the Axis.
07:44So it's certainly really fragile.
07:48But I think overall this war right now at this point has really solidified the ties between different actors
07:53in the Axis of Resistance, particularly with Hezbollah and also the IRGC in Iran.
07:58Lastly, I want to ask you, do you think people in Lebanon see a path to recovery?
08:04Or is there a growing sense that the country is being pushed further into the instability?
08:11I mean, certainly the general atmosphere and mood here is one that I think most people that I've spoken to
08:18here on the ground,
08:19they know of someone or they've been personally impacted by the war of encroachment promulgated by Israel.
08:26I mean, we're talking about a context where now Israel is sort of amplifying their military strategy,
08:32utilizing 2,000-pound MK bombs to fly in areas with really zero actionable intelligence.
08:39There's no actual proof that, for example, so-called resistance fighters are in these regions.
08:43So that being said, I think that, you know, the possibility of instability is incredibly, you know, within the horizon,
08:53especially as now also the United States is trying to implicate Giuliani in Syria to attack the northern and eastern
09:01part of Lebanon as well.
09:03That being said, though, I think that we really see the resilience of the Lebanese people, especially in the south,
09:08many of whom, you know, are returning to areas that have been heavily bombed, such as in Nabatea, for example,
09:13or near Saida.
09:15And, you know, we're also the mood of the country right now, too, where you have to really consider that,
09:20you know,
09:20people are also commemorating and celebrating the Ashura, for example, which is a religious holiday that is really cemented in
09:29this idea of resistance,
09:31this idea of, you know, being courageous and protecting your land and protecting your people
09:37and having sort of a really community-oriented way of dealing with severe strife and struggle.
09:43So I think that really the only path towards recovery is going to be spearheaded by those brave resistance fighters
09:51that are really truly on the front lines fighting this Israeli encroachment.
09:54Obviously, this Israeli encroachment that is supported by no other than the U.S. and its allies in the West.
10:04But, I mean, here in Beirut, you know, on a constant basis, we're hearing, you know, Israeli drones.
10:10And this is also a form of psychological warfare, obviously notwithstanding to the more violent encroachment,
10:17particularly in the South in places like SOAR, for example.
10:20So there's not really a sentiment or mood of stability per se, but there certainly is one of resilience.
10:27Aminta, thank you so much for your valuable analysis to TeleCity English. We thank you so much.
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