00:00There's been a lot of conversation about Joe Espada.
00:04Should Joe Espada keep his job?
00:06Yes.
00:07Scott Barzillo, who is our analytics expert at Crawfish Boxes,
00:11had put together a piece on why he felt Joe Espada should be fired.
00:17Yeah, he went all Raphael Devers on Joe Espada.
00:20No, I didn't agree with it.
00:23I think it's a good conversation piece, but I didn't agree with it.
00:27Now, there was some data that came out today.
00:32The account is actually called Tigers Data,
00:35and generally they do a lot of stuff on the Detroit Tigers.
00:38Oh, this is where they rated all the managers.
00:40They rated all the managers, and what they did was
00:44they took expected win probability added
00:51based on your pinch hitting and bullpen moves to this point in the season.
00:56And what was the expected win probability added to buy those moves?
01:04And Joe Espada ranked 20th on that list at minus 0.43 win probability added.
01:17So, the move in bullpen and pinch hitting were expected to cost them nearly half a win.
01:25Nearly half a win.
01:26Okay, so I interpreted that correctly.
01:28Okay.
01:29Then there is actual success rate.
01:33So, this is manager situation success rate.
01:38First, we're going to start with the bullpen.
01:39This is making a pitching change with runners in scoring position, two outs,
01:46and the new pitcher strands the runners.
01:51Joe Espada ranked 9th, 15 out of 20.
01:57He made the right move, meaning the move worked.
02:01Yeah.
02:01So, pinch hitter.
02:04Pinch hitting with runners in scoring position,
02:08and either the pinch hitter reaches base or drives home a runner.
02:19Joe Espada ranked 11th, 7 for 16.
02:25Those are both on the positive side.
02:28Yeah.
02:29They're the green numbers, not the red numbers.
02:31Those last two, for sure, yeah.
02:32So, we just told you that based on bullpen and pinch hitting moves,
02:40he's ranked 20th in expected win probability added at minus 0.43.
02:49Yet, he's actually been in the top third of the league in success rate.
02:57Now, hold on.
02:58Just three different numbers.
02:59Correct.
02:59The first one was the overall number.
03:01Overall number.
03:02That's win probability, expected win probability added,
03:07meaning what that move, quote, should have resulted in based on all the analytics.
03:13But he performed far better in the two categories that make up the cumulative.
03:19He was 9th and 11th, respectively.
03:21Right.
03:21So, where he succeeded is in actual success.
03:25The expected, the analytical, predicted success, he was predicted to have failed.
03:31Oh, I see.
03:32I see.
03:32Yeah.
03:32And what has happened is, in reality, he is succeeding.
03:36Yeah.
03:36And what that tells you very clearly is that Joe Espada is having success,
03:44strong success, top 10 success, despite the fact that the quality of players
03:51at his disposal in his bullpen on his bench have not been good enough
03:59for there to be an expected win added or expected success added.
04:04He is getting success out of players who are expected by the analytics to fail.
04:12Now, who should we be giving kudos to out of the bullpen?
04:16I would say maybe first and foremost, at least, and maybe recency bias is a thing for me,
04:22but, man, tip of the cap to Steven Okert.
04:25He has become the guy to come in and get starting pitchers out of trouble.
04:30It's been about five weeks now where Steven Okert has been coming into jams,
04:34and mowing guys down.
04:36Yeah.
04:37I think Lodelo Santos has had really good moments this season, tip of the cap to him.
04:41Brian King has had a pretty damn good season, cumulatively.
04:46And I would say those couple of three guys right there are probably more responsible than anybody else
04:55for those successful numbers that Joe Espada has displayed in this, you know, rating here by Tigers data.
05:04And now the pinch hitting...
05:07I mean, let's be real about the pinch hitting.
05:09Who's been the Astros' best pinch hitter this year?
05:10Well, that's it.
05:11Let's be real about the pinch hitting.
05:13They have had a bunch of triple-leg eyes and a backup catcher on their bench pretty much all year.
05:19Yeah.
05:19Yeah.
05:20And seven for 15.
05:22That's Christian Vasquez coming off the bench and getting a hit.
05:27That's Joey Loprefito or Taylor Trammell coming off the bench and getting a hit.
05:32I mean, Isak Perretti's had some opportunities, you know, on days in which, you know, he did not start.
05:39It was rest days, but he needed to be called upon in the seventh inning.
05:42Isak's only started to hit the last...
05:43I haven't seen him succeed in those situations, though.
05:46Well, think about it.
05:47Isak's only started to hit the last, what, three weeks?
05:50Yeah.
05:51Yeah.
05:51And it's still, it's not, it's not what he was last year before the hamstring.
05:55No, and it probably won't be for another month.
05:58We talked about this in the offseason, that the first half was likely to be tough for him.
06:04Yeah.
06:04Coming off that injury, not having had surgery, you knew it was, it was going to be a slow start.
06:10And, you know, when you generate your power out of your legs and your legs hurt, it's going to take
06:15some time.
06:15Yeah.
06:16No, and I, I didn't know that.
06:18I understood why you were forecasting that in the offseason for Isak Perretti's, but boy, I just enjoyed him so
06:27much in his first year as a Houston Astro.
06:30I mean, you thought like, boy, here's another guy.
06:32The Astros found the diamond in the rough, man.
06:34How did they luck into this guy?
06:37A la Kyle Tucker trade.
06:39I mean, that's fantastic, and I hope it proves itself out even much more fruitful than it appeared to be
06:45on the surface when you first made the deal.
06:47And you had, and you saw what Hayden Wisniewski could be, and Isak Perretti's, and Cam Smith, you enjoyed him.
06:52Last year in the first half, especially, hopefully, it pays dividends many times over off of that.
06:58But that's a really interesting metric.
07:00Here's, hey, how about this?
07:02It's Tiger's data, right?
07:03Yes, and the point of it was for them to show, basically, they're trying to show what has A.J.
07:11Hinch done compared to everyone else.
07:14That was my question.
07:15It's like, where does A.J. finish in all of these things, like the analytical savant that he is?
07:23Where does he wind up?
07:24So, on expected win probability added, A.J. Hinch is dead last.
07:33At minus 2.01.
07:37And to give you an idea of how bad.
07:39This is A.I.
07:40Are you being for real?
07:42This is for real.
07:42To give you an idea of how bad minus 2.01 is.
07:48The second worst manager by expected win probability.
07:53Meaning this is, you have to make a move, and based on the guys that bring in, are they going
07:59to make the situation better or worse?
08:01So, this tells you, Hinch is working with a really bad roster.
08:04The next worst guy is Skip Schumacher in Arlington.
08:09At 1.28, there is a .8, no, .73 gap between 29 and 30.
08:21It is the biggest gap anywhere on the board.
08:24Wow.
08:25Wow.
08:26So, by far, A.J. Hinch has been the worst.
08:29The worst.
08:30And, again, a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Tigers, like the bench guys, are
08:36basically minor leaguers.
08:37Yeah, but correct me.
08:38And they've had a lot of injuries.
08:40Are they number two to the Astros in having dealt with the most injuries this season?
08:43They might be.
08:44They've had a lot of injuries.
08:44I think they are.
08:45Who's number one in that expected win probability added?
08:50Aaron Boone.
08:54This keeps getting better.
08:551.77.
08:57Oh, this is good.
08:58Here's the funny part.
08:59And you want to know who number three is?
09:02Dave Roberts in L.A.
09:04Because, you know, every position is an all-star, and the guys on the bench could be starting.
09:09I'm guessing Murphy, manager for the Brewers, is number two?
09:14No, he's actually 28.
09:17Wow.
09:18That tells you how good the Brewers are.
09:20Yeah.
09:20Because they're leading their division, and their manager on expected win probability added is minus 1.02.
09:29That's so funny.
09:29Because was it last night that we had that list that we talked about from Buster Olney?
09:34Like, the top 12 general managers under the most pressure, right?
09:38It was Spada.
09:39Or, rather, Dana Brown finished number 10 in that list, according to Buster Olney.
09:42But, where was the Tigers general manager on that list?
09:48He was one, two, or three.
09:50Yeah, he was up there.
09:51Hell, I think he was number one.
09:52He was number one on that list.
09:54Now, it was a FUBAR list.
09:56Now, look, what this is telling you is that Joe Spada is making, not chicken salad, he's making chicken cordon
10:05bleu.
10:06Not a chicken turd.
10:08I miss you.
10:09Now, does chicken cordon bleu have blue cheese?
10:13It does not.
10:14Okay.
10:14Then, that's pretty good.
10:15I thought I've had it before, but I doubted it because it was like, well, if it had blue cheese,
10:20it probably steered away from it.
10:21But, yeah.
10:22Chicken cordon bleu, that is the...
10:24Yeah, the breaded chicken cutlet with the ham and the Swiss inside.
10:28Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
10:29And the little brown sauce gravy.
10:31Oh, yeah.
10:31I mean, that's not a ribeye.
10:33That's not a T-bone.
10:35That's not a filet.
10:37That's really damn good.
10:38It's not a surf and turf.
10:40It's not even a turducken, but it is really damn good if it's done well.
10:45Yeah.
10:46Now, good job by you finding that piece of information.
10:49I saw that, but I did not peruse it outside of just glancing at the first page.
10:56And I saw 20 Joe Spada.
10:57I was like, nah, see?
10:58He ain't that bad.
10:59And really, what it's telling you is, you know, when Joe Spada is making these bullpen changes,
11:05that he's going to guys that, on paper, analytically, these guys are not going to succeed,
11:11but he knows who to go to, and they're succeeding.
11:14Yeah.
11:15He's getting guys coming off the bank, the AAA guys and Christian Vasquez.
11:20Yeah.
11:21And they're succeeding.
11:23Seven out of 16 times, his pinch hitter has either gotten on base or driven in the run
11:28when pinch hitter and when guys are in scoring position.
11:31That's tremendous.
11:33Mm-hmm.
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