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00:00What is the difference between the 2015 Obama deal and what we're getting from this MOU with Trump
00:07and Iran now? Thanks. Well, good to be with you. I wish it was under better circumstances. I think
00:16it's important that this framework has at least brought us an extension of the ceasefire,
00:23the United States, the world, and some sort of tentative opening of Strait of Hormuz.
00:30But it's not much more than that, and at a very high cost to the United States and to those
00:37who are trying to ship throughout the world and to anyone who is a consumer of energy.
00:43In terms of the comparison with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which was the
00:49plan that was put into place in President Obama's term, I would say there is no comparison in that
00:56this is a framework, an entry into the negotiations. And the plan under President Obama was from the
01:07culmination of what was months and months of negotiation. So if we are lucky, if we are
01:14fortunate, the Trump team will come out of the 60-day or however long period of negotiations with
01:22something that we can only hope is somewhere close to what the Obama plan achieved, which was to
01:33contain Iran's enrichment activities. So it effectively precluded them from being able to enrich uranium to
01:41the point where it could become a nuclear weapon. And it required regular inspections. And in exchange
01:46for those things, some sanctions, not all sanctions were lifted. And some of the frozen assets that Iran
01:53had were returned. Under this framework, which is just the beginning of discussions, they're already
02:01getting massive relief from sanctions, which is fairly extraordinary. And the promise, the commitment
02:09they've made on the Strait of Hormuz in terms of opening again is quite tentative. So it's pretty
02:16disturbing, as you reported, in terms of the imbalance here. And I will just say, John Bolton,
02:22who you played a clip from just before, who was one of President Trump's national security advisors
02:27in President Trump's first term, is not someone I agree with frequently. We worked for very different
02:32administrations. And there was nothing in what he said that I thought was off base.
02:39It certainly tests a lot of the red lines that President Trump used to justify going into this war. But
02:45it
02:45seems like those red lines keep changing. What do you think are some of the tangible sort of outcomes
02:51we could get in those 60 days then that you think could actually change the trajectory here? Maybe the US
02:55could benefit
02:57from this deal. Yeah, I would say, first of all, it's tough to consider the various edicts that President
03:05Trump put out as red lines, because as you point out, they were so frequently crossed, maybe we should
03:11call them very, very light pink lines instead. In terms of what we can hope to get out of the
03:1760-day
03:18negotiation. Listen, what we what the world should want to see is a significantly reduced ability to
03:25enrich uranium disposal in some in some way of the over 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium enriched
03:36over 60 percent that Iran now holds that at one point President Trump had talked about as a big
03:43problem. Now, there's also concerns Russia has offered to take this. That's not that's not a
03:48pathway we'd we'd want to see, but plans for disposal of that highly enriched uranium and a regular
03:54inspection regime. Again, I'm highly skeptical that that can occur within the 60 day period.
04:00And I'm very concerned that the approach of this administration might be too much like how they've
04:08approached the the Gaza agreement that they reached, which in its first phase was great, but has nothing
04:14has happened since. And also, I guess, amid the war, how Iran's red lines have shifted. We know how
04:24they're against the idea of any of that nuclear material leaving the country. I wonder how does
04:32its its bottom line sort of shift and how has it shifted amid the war in the way that they
04:37were attacked
04:38in the in this manner by the U.S. and Israel as well. And does that perhaps encourage them a
04:44bit more to just
04:45keep these nuclear materials within the country regardless just to keep a bit of ambiguity?
04:51Yeah. Well, listen, they they first of all proved to be masters of asymmetric warfare. And you should be clear
04:58on that. The United States threw a tremendous amount of resources, as did Israel, into into
05:05setting them back. And our military did a quite extraordinary job tactically in terms of what
05:11they went and were able to do. The administration overall, I would say, did an extraordinarily poor job
05:18of one of the basic things you need to understand when you're going into conflict, which is what your
05:23enemy is likely to do and what's in their heads and how they're likely to react. And so that's why
05:29I say Iran really showed themselves the Iranian regime. I should be clear in distinction from
05:34Iran as a country or from the Iranian people, but showed themselves to be masters of this kind of
05:40asymmetric warfare. And they used a lever that proved to be very powerful, some would argue as powerful
05:48as having a nuclear weapon, which was their ability to control and block traffic going in shipping in
05:54and out of the Strait of Hormuz, which really put the world in an economic gridlock to some degree. And,
06:01and, you know, we've all felt the economic repercussions of that. And so I see no sign that Iran would
06:09be any more
06:10willing than they've been in the past to actually halt nuclear activity. And they have made the
06:18commitment multiple times. They have no intention of getting a nuclear weapon. And, and I think that
06:24has been met with a good degree and a fair degree of skepticism for good reason. And that is part
06:31of why
06:31any agreement needs to have quite a rigorous inspection component to it. This won't be easy to get done.
06:38And, and 60 days is a very short period of time.
06:44Mara, do you think Israel will cooperate in the 60 day period in terms of not attacking Lebanon?
06:53Yeah, Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a very, is in a very, very difficult position. It's been described
07:03throughout the media, something of advice in the, what he needs from the United States,
07:10regardless of what he, he says, Israel, obviously, a fair amount of their weaponry comes from the United
07:17States. Not, not quite the amounts that the vice president spoke of in the interviews he's had.
07:25Uh, but a good degree of their, um, of their military ability is enhanced, uh, their military
07:34strength by the cooperation with the United States. And, uh, and he recognizes that he also,
07:40as a politician has sold himself on his incredibly close relationship with President Trump.
07:45And Israel, of course, is going into elections in September, October. Uh, Prime Minister Netanyahu is
07:52not polling well at this point. And, uh, so he personally is in a very difficult position.
07:59And, uh, he's not had the best relationship with his military now for an extended period of time,
08:04really since before, um, October, uh, October 7th. So, uh, so he's in a difficult position. I, I think it's
08:12pretty impossible to predict what he will do and what he will order his military to do.
08:18Mara, uh, President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz has reopened. Um, but we've, we've heard many
08:24guests on this program that say it, you know, it's not like turning on the light switch, right,
08:28in terms of reviving those energy flows again. Um, if, what's the advice to a shipping company or
08:34an insurer right now? Do you think we've seen enough for them to confidently send vessels
08:39through that waterway again? I think you've seen, um, I've heard, uh, the leaders of major
08:47shipping companies, uh, within the last 24 hours. Uh, I don't know if I, I saw or heard these quotes
08:53today, but talking about, uh, the risks that they were unwilling to take. I think there's going to be
08:58a wait and see attitude. Um, I think it will depend on insurers being willing to cover the costs.
09:04And, uh, so President Trump can say that the Strait is open. He's made any number of assertions,
09:12uh, about this conflict since it started that have been inaccurate and, and on which he's changed his
09:19position within hours. Uh, so I, I could understand how, uh, any, uh, major shipping company would not
09:29base their decision to send cargo through the Strait solely on statements that he's made. So I think
09:34there's going to be, uh, a fair amount of due diligence, uh, that needs to occur before you'll
09:40see, uh, regular flows of ships, uh, through the Strait.
09:47Mara, this is all happening with a lot of criticism from within the U.S. as well. Uh, from Republicans,
09:55you know, given how this MOU seems to have given around the upper hand, we're getting closer to
10:00the midterms. This 60-day negotiation period is also a compressed one, as some of our colleagues
10:06have highlighted, versus the two-year period for the Obama deal. I mean, does that change the
10:11calculus the closer we get to the midterms?
10:17It would seem that it might, but again, it's, it is an impossible task, I think, to get inside
10:22President Trump's head. Uh, I think for him it's difficult sometimes. Uh, but, uh, but I think
10:29you can look at certainly the comments he made in the press conference, uh, within the past 24 hours,
10:36uh, about his concerns about the economy and not wanting to be, uh, another Herbert Hoover,
10:43of course, uh, was the president when the United States went into a deep depression.
10:48And so that's clearly front of mind for him. And, you know, to be clear, at the same time,
10:53he and the vice president have also said that if Iran doesn't comply, they will,
10:57the United States will just start bombing again. Uh, but if you look at how focused they've been on
11:02the price of gas, uh, gasoline and, um, anyone, and certainly oil companies will watch and follow,
11:11uh, the possibility of the United States, uh, starting, restarting the conflict, restarting
11:18bombing. Uh, and so that would raise the specter of gasoline prices going up again, uh, prior to
11:25the election when there's already plenty of concern that they will not drop sufficiently.
11:29They've gone down a little bit. They're below $4 or gallon now in the United States, but that's
11:33still a dollar higher than they were before this conflict began. And it's going to take a while,
11:38as we talked about for ships to be able to feel comfortable navigating the straits. Uh,
11:44there's a long, uh, delivery time involved. There's all sorts of factors that mean the price,
11:50even if the discussions go well over the next 60 days, uh, the price of gasoline is not going to
11:57drop to where it was. And it's probably safe to expect that president Trump will not want to see it
12:04go up again. And that's going to be, that is a factor here in terms of, um, what the Iranians
12:11contemplate and figure out as they're sitting at the negotiating table, uh, with the Trump team.
12:16And so it's, it, as I had said before, it's going to be a very tough, uh, set of negotiations
12:22and very
12:23unclear to me that the United States will be able to get what it needs out of this. And keep
12:28in mind,
12:28this is only about the nuclear, uh, issue itself and not the ballistic missile capability that Iran
12:34has going support for proxy militias like Hezbollah. And, and so just on the nuclear issue,
12:41just to get to where the Obama guys were, uh, it's, it's tough to see how that can happen in
12:46this time
12:47period.
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