00:00There's a lot of sloppiness from the U.S. perspective in them, in much of which we, you know, a
00:05lot of it is what we've already understood, right?
00:07There will be this 60-day period, that the shooting will stop, that the Iranians will allow the Strait of
00:12Hormuz to open, and the U.S. will lift its blockade, all to be expected.
00:16And then also to be expected was that the technical discussions on Iran's nuclear program would be deferred until, you
00:22know, 60 days from now, and that there will be or would be an easing of U.S. sanctions and
00:29an unfreezing of Iranian assets as there is performance by Iran on the negotiations with regard to its nuclear program.
00:39What is surprising for many people is the absence of any mention whatsoever of Iran curtailing its ballistic missile program
00:47or ending its support for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
00:52It's not a surprise that that stuff isn't in there, but I think some in Washington, especially, you know, hardline
00:58hawks on Iran like Senator Lindsey Graham will be disappointed.
01:03But there are other things in there that I think are bits of ambiguity that could be extremely problematic, and
01:09I'm almost done here.
01:11One is in the section that talks or the paragraph that talks about the U.S. lifting the blockade, it
01:18also says that the U.S. will remove its military forces from the region.
01:22What does that mean?
01:23If it means, or from the area, if it means the U.S. pulling back its naval forces so there's
01:28no blockade, I think that will be acceptable to Washington.
01:31But if what that means, or if Iran intends it to mean, is that the United States will withdraw military
01:37forces from the Gulf region, that is utterly a non-starter for Washington and could lead to a breakdown in
01:42the negotiations before they even begin.
01:44And then the other point that I think is maybe a ticking time bomb is in the paragraph, I think
01:51it's 13, it says that subject to progress on paragraphs 4, 5, and 10, and 11, the negotiations will begin
02:02for the 60-day period.
02:04So there has to be progress on those paragraphs.
02:08So 4 and 5 have to do with the lifting of the blockade and Iran opening up the strait.
02:12But one of those has to do with the United States unfreezing Iranian assets.
02:17So if what the Iranian side believes is that there can begin that 60-day negotiating period on a final
02:24agreement only if the U.S. first unfreezes Iranian assets, that's a complete non-starter for President Trump, who believes
02:33the assets will be unfrozen only as Iran makes progress in implementing whatever will be negotiated after the 60-day
02:40period begins.
02:41So there's a huge potential gap in timing and expectations, which maybe President Trump has realized now and got him
02:48angry and said, I'm going to drop bombs on heads.
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