00:00Let's bring in two experts, former National Security Advisor to President Trump, Victoria Coates, and Brent Sadler, a graduate of
00:06the Naval Academy and an expert on naval warfare.
00:09Welcome to you both. Victoria, we'll start with you. The strait will be opening for shipping. The blockade is lifted.
00:15What is known about other parts of the agreement, in particular, sanctioned relief and unfreezing assets?
00:23Well, Trey, great to see you and good to see you, too, Brent.
00:26You know, what we know about the deal is that it's performance-based, and this is what differentiates it from
00:32the JCPOA, the Obama-era nuclear deal, in which they got all of the goodies up front, the sanctions relief,
00:41the pallets of cash.
00:44Instead, what we're going to do is see if they actually do what they're supposed to do.
00:48We're going to open up the strait. That's very important.
00:51And then we're going to start these negotiations on the nuclear deal, which aren't just to limit where they can
00:58enrich to, but rather to dismantle that program, to get the highly enriched uranium out.
01:04If that all takes place, then great.
01:06Yes, we can talk about, you know, future incentives for them, but they have to take those steps first.
01:12So that's the critical thing here, and I would say this is opening the door to a new Middle East.
01:18This is a Middle East under President Trump's leadership where we can have our Gulf allies with Israel come together
01:26for a more prosperous, secure region.
01:28That wasn't possible four months ago. Now it is.
01:32And so for all the naysayers, all the deniers, let's see what's actually in the deal.
01:37Let's go forward and get to a more positive outcome.
01:42All right, Brent, a Senate like me, for instance, might argue that this kind of takes us back to the
01:48status quo ante, where we were before the recent hostilities.
01:53Is there more? Am I am I missing something?
01:56Because before the most recent hostilities, their their nuclear program was degraded or obliterated, to use the administration's word.
02:04The strait was open and there was no blockade. So how is this different?
02:10Well, I can understand the cynicism about the Middle East. There's certainly lots of reasons for that.
02:16The regions is changed fundamentally, and I think what we're seeing now is the beginning of a page of a
02:22new era in the Middle East.
02:24I mean, it's not going to be smooth, of course, but it's not the same.
02:28Of course, Iran is alienated and actually agitated to actually force of arms many of its neighbors and also rallied
02:35in unity with Israel, which was unheard of before,
02:39which probably means you're going to see an acceleration and a broadening benefits of things like the Abraham Accords.
02:45So the region is fundamentally different now than it was several months ago and to include even the economics to
02:53say nothing of the global energy markets that are now changed.
02:56And it's not going to go back to the way it was before.
03:00All right, Victoria, Brent has turned me into something of an optimist with his answer as it relates to the
03:06broader region.
03:07However, the Iranian regime has been a theocratic, despotic one for 47 years, and thugs don't become good neighbors overnight.
03:16Is Iran content stringing things along and waiting for President Trump's term to end, hoping for a different negotiating partner
03:24in the future?
03:25Or do you think that they really are desirous of fundamental change?
03:32Well, Trey, I will say, I mean, I don't want to stomp on your sunny optimism, but I mean, yes,
03:38we're dealing with the Iranians.
03:39And so this regime is bad.
03:41They are hostile.
03:42They're the death to America, death to Israel crowd.
03:46And what makes them the most upset, actually, is the fact of how effective the United States-Israel partnership was
03:53during Operation Epic Fury.
03:55So for everyone who's trying to point to differences between the United States and Israel tonight, look at that.
04:01Look at how seamless that cooperation was and how good it can be going forward.
04:06But for what we're going to do with dealing with them going forward, you know, what we have to do
04:12is continue to keep the economic pressure on them.
04:15And they also know that we can strike them at the time of our choice in the place of our
04:21choice.
04:21So this isn't going to happen out of the goodness of their hearts because they don't have hearts.
04:25So this is going to happen because they're scared about more of those those strikes that the president called in
04:31last week.
04:31That can happen any time.
04:33And so that's how we keep the pressure on them.
04:36We make sure they make good on this nuclear deal because that's the basic line here.
04:42No nuclear weapons for Iran.
04:45All right, Brent, is there a material difference between giving Iran cash and giving Iran access to frozen assets and
04:55allowing it to make money from selling oil?
04:58If they're going to use the money for nefarious purposes, I mean, does it matter where they get the money
05:05from and what we call it?
05:09Well, there is a big difference between pallets of cash on an aircraft that shows up and then disappears into
05:15wherever nefarious purpose.
05:17Then, you know, financial flows that you can actually monitor and also control.
05:22So on its surface, there's that.
05:24But again, the devil's in the details.
05:26We'll see when the actual agreement is hopefully released on Friday after the next next phase of this is reached.
05:33And we'll be able to look at a lot closer what we're talking about on finances.
05:38All right.
05:39We've got about 30 seconds.
05:40So let me get you both to quickly answer this question, Victoria, you and then Brent.
05:45Any chance in the world Israel is upset and tries to do something to upend this agreement?
05:52Victoria, then you, Brent.
05:55I'd be shocked, Brent.
05:56I mean, Trey, rather.
05:57I think that Israel wants to get to peace in the region.
06:02Well, thank you for calling me.
06:03That's the nicest thing anyone's called me.
06:06You go ahead, Brent.
06:07No, I agree with that.
06:09There's very little reason to expect anything like that.
06:12The U.S. and Israel are aligned very closely in national security and national interest.
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