00:00We have heard this week that at least a third of Ebola cases in the community aren't being detected.
00:09What is Africa City's best estimate of the true nature of this epidemic in Congo, you think?
00:16You know, when we have an outbreak, the first thing we are looking for is the index case.
00:23The index case will help you to know all contact.
00:27And let me remind you that when we have a confirmed case, we assume an average of 20 to 40,
00:37even 50 contacts per confirmed case.
00:41Currently in DRC, we have around 600 confirmed cases.
00:46It means I'm expecting to have between 12,000 to almost 20,000 people in the contact list.
00:58But now we just have 6,000 people in the contact list.
01:03It means we are having even half of what can be the minimal number of people that we could have
01:11in the contact list.
01:12But more importantly, even these people were in the contact list, only 63% are actively followed.
01:21It means we don't currently say, we cannot say that we know the magnitude of this outbreak.
01:29What we are doing as Africa CDC, working with WHO and the ministry, is to do active service, to look
01:38actively for all contacts in the community and to start to see when this outbreak started.
01:48Now we know that the outbreak didn't start in May, maybe it started some time ago, maybe it started in
01:54March, maybe it started in April.
01:57But, you know, by going deeply, looking for all contacts, then we can have an idea on when the outbreak
02:04started.
02:05And maybe one day we can say what was the index case.
02:08And maybe one day we can say what was the index case.
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