00:00We are net importers of petroleum products, even though we export crude oil.
00:06So when crude prices, when oil prices are going up, that has a negative impact on us nonetheless.
00:14And so that has a direct effect on export prices.
00:19So far, government has managed it quite well.
00:22We haven't had a lot of impact compared to our peer countries.
00:27We are hopeful that the crisis will continue to be a short-term one.
00:31We are watching it by the day.
00:33The good thing is that we've built adequate reserves.
00:36We believe that our resilience currently is way, way better than a year ago.
00:42And so we are watching.
00:44We are seeing things unfold.
00:45But based on the information we have currently, we have no, none, I mean, we do think that we are
00:53still on good grounds.
00:55At what point does it become a bit more concerning?
00:58Because it's been about three months at this point in time.
01:00Well, if it turns out that the crisis is going to be persistent, and if it turns out that we
01:06have to brace ourselves for full adjustment,
01:09then certainly the outlook could be impacted.
01:13But from where we sit currently, it's unfolding in line with our projections based on current data.
01:21What does that mean for the rate hiking or easing cycle?
01:24Do we continue to see rates on hold until things really pan out in the middle?
01:30Well, that would be based on the assessment of the committee as a whole.
01:35As you are aware, our framework decisions are based on the majority, you know, majority opinion, you know, on the
01:44panel,
01:44the seven-member panel, you know.
01:47So it's not just my decision.
01:49It's based on what majority of the members of the MPC see.
01:53But based on the staff analysis, et cetera, based on our data,
01:59we think that, yes, there could be scope for everything to the easing cycle.
02:05In 2026?
02:05Yes, but it's all contingent, you know, largely to this global shock and how it continues to unfold.
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