00:00Emily is there a risk that oxygen is being sucked out of the room. The fact that we've got all
00:06of these mega IPOs. Just tell us the numbers that you've crunched of just how significant the wall of a
00:13new equity coming to this market is.
00:15Yes, we're really in uncharted territory. Just for context, looking at the past 10 years, it's $1.5 trillion in
00:25terms of all of the US VC backed public listings. And SpaceX alone would be greater than that decade long
00:30figure.
00:31And in terms of the number of IPO proceeds that are being raised, SpaceX is looking at $75 billion. Opening
00:38Ionthropic are looking at a combined $100 billion. And that is, again, greater than all the IPO proceeds that have
00:46been raised in the past decade. So really, we're in uncharted territory in terms of how gargantuan these mega IPOs
00:52are.
00:55What I find interesting about this is it could all happen at the same time. So what Shireen did was
01:02recap what we know. The S1 is in confidentially from Ionthropic. SpaceX will price June 11th, trade soon after. Maybe
01:11OpenAI goes in September. Is it possible for all of that to happen in the balance of 2026?
01:19No, that's a really good question. And I think, like Shireen mentioned, like there is a lot of pent up
01:24demand, but it's also such a big number. And I think all eyes will really be on the SpaceX IPO
01:31to see how the demand actually plays out.
01:33And if it's actually has substance, because if the SpaceX IPO flops, then potentially Ionthropic might wait until later to
01:45go public until the volatility evens out. So a confidential filing is one necessary step to going public, but it's
01:53not necessarily a guarantee that it will happen in the next few months or even the next year.
01:57What's so interesting is we're almost coming back to this circularity issue. Now, you think about how Ionthropic is paying
02:05$1.25 billion per month to SpaceX for compute.
02:10Then when we really get the documented files that are currently just private to us and to the SEC at
02:16the moment, the SEC has got its hands on the filing coming from Ionthropic.
02:19Eventually, when we understand and then look at them, we'll see how much they're reliant on Google or on Amazon.
02:25How much is this a worry for investors?
02:27How much could this be an impact for those VC investors who are also invested in many of the same
02:32names?
02:33Yes, the AI cycle is so interconnected. And also, on top of that, 30% of USVC-backed startups are
02:42AI native or AI adjacent.
02:44So all eyes are really emphasizing trying to see if this AI valuations and these pricings are able to be
02:52upheld because so much of the market is interdependent and also depending on this technology to move forward and eventually
03:00become profitable.
03:01So I think this is really the big question for VC right now. And that's why there's so much emphasis
03:07on these big names and these upcoming listings.
03:11Emily, it's more than that. It's not just the commonalities on the cap tables, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI. They're all pitching
03:18the same thing.
03:19Is there any precedent in history that gives us a warning signal about that? Three companies trying to occupy the
03:25same lane?
03:26Oh, that's a really interesting question. And I feel like in terms of something like such a transformative technology that
03:35hasn't seen something in the public markets,
03:38I don't think we've had such a similar precedent. And that's why I think this day and age is really,
03:46really interesting to see how these mega listings will play out.
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