00:14so unlike the crisis in 1979 the crisis that we're facing now is not just an oil crisis
00:21it's also a supply crisis so in 1979 Petronas was able to cushion the fall cushion like the
00:29shock that we're facing the actual problem that we're facing right now is that a lot of industry
00:34inputs in our economy depend on items from the Gulf so naphtha for plastics urea for fertilizer
00:42and such so the simple way I would put this is that Petronas can cushion the revenue problem
00:47but it can't cushion the supply problem that we're facing right now
01:01right now households are still going to feel the supply side problem so they're going to start
01:06seeing that their package package food packaging will change they will also see price increases for
01:12certain things but businesses will face the sharper end of the stick businesses will start seeing that
01:18their fuel for industrial use the urea for fertilizer is still will still follow market price so they'll
01:25face the bigger brunt of the crisis are we feeling the pinch right now right now yes a little bit
01:32so we
01:32start seeing that farm fresh has already changed their packaging from bottles to cartons and we start
01:39to see that at least on the business side for let's say plantation owners and perhaps even vegetable
01:44farmers that their fertilizer prices are a bit higher now and that's going to affect maybe consumers six
01:50months down the road when they start seeing that after this first planting cycle prices might go up
01:56for vegetables and even chicken feet
02:15the Malaysian government can pay for it but I guess the larger question is that every
02:20ringgit that we spend on subsidies is a ringgit that we're not spending on healthcare or education
02:24and I think that's the larger conversation that Malaysians should have about this it's a sensitive
02:30conversation because the ideas being put forward is necessarily about making decisions and trade-offs
02:36between parts of society so a recent proposal is for T20 households to not get booty 95 that's an active
02:44choice and that is actually actively a political choice and I think that's the conversation that Malaysians as a
02:50society should start having and unfortunately we're not what's the
02:56measures that can be implemented effectively
03:05since we're in the crisis there's not really a lot of space to build buffers
03:11so I think the immediate structural thing that we should do think of is triage identify where critical
03:17inputs are and identify where a shortage of these critical inputs would hurt the most households
03:23try to help businesses replace whatever is needed we can start thinking about emergency procurement channels
03:29government procurement channels use trade diplomacy to try to acquire the things that these films might need
03:47I think buying local can matter but I would put a caveat that it can matter at the margins rather
03:52than as a strategic
03:53response to this crisis buying local can work for a lot of for a lot of supply chains that are
03:59completely domestic
03:59for example in a country so you might imagine that ayam kampong would have like chicken feed that is grown
04:05domestically you might have uh local fish that are grown domestically all the supply chain for that is grown
04:11domestically so that's a great example
04:23content wise I think when it comes to communication of this crisis we should be very careful about
04:30separating the temporary versus the structural so all prices increasing we've seen it before and that's
04:36a surprise there's a price event and it's temporary but like shipping insurance going up as a result of the
04:42hormones crisis that's structural for the foreseeable future because like for example it might take until
04:49january 2027 before they revised that so helping people share expectations when it comes to their
04:55businesses and their house when it comes to their items that's important and I think vannegara and the
05:00government should do a lot should do a bit more when it comes to communicating what's temporary and what's
05:06structural form wise I think it's important that we name the policy choices and why especially for the
05:12government when we name the policy choices we also have to communicate the problems behind the policy
05:17policy choices and I think that's important
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