00:00Now, oil prices are spiking, and the question is how long it will last.
00:05Analyst Saul Cavendish says it hinges on the Strait of Hormuz.
00:10The longer the disruption continues, the higher oil is likely to go up,
00:14and gas could face the biggest impact.
00:18What we will see is it all comes down to how long will the current full disruption of flows
00:24out of the Strait of Hormuz continue for.
00:27So every day that this lasts, we should expect on balance that oil enters upwards.
00:34There are bearish scenarios for it if we see, for example, a de-escalation of the conflict,
00:39or what is perhaps more likely, some passage through the Strait of Hormuz returns
00:45once the US and its allies in Europe put in place a Navy-escorted convoy system
00:52plus insurance measures.
00:54But even then, there will still be some significant disruptions of flow
00:59because the convoy system will be inherently slower than what prevailed previously,
01:03and in particular, gas could be impacted a lot more than oil
01:07because oil still can get – you can still get some of the Saudi oil and the UAE oil
01:12out without the Strait of Hormuz, but LNG is 100% dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.
01:17So let's get started.
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