Russia’s 2026 offensive in Ukraine is stalling as Kyiv launches bold counterattacks, recaptures territory, and intensifies devastating long-range strikes deep inside Russia. From fierce battles in Zaporizhzhia to growing fears of a Ukrainian push toward the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the war is entering a dangerous new phase. We break down the latest battlefield developments, Russia’s mounting logistical problems, Starlink disruptions, and what these shifts could mean for the future of the conflict. Subscribe for daily military analysis and updates.
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00:00Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine hasn't exactly gone according to plan in 2026.
00:07Having subjected Ukrainian cities to a murderous bombing campaign that caused
00:12major power and water outages for millions of residents throughout a bitterly cold winter,
00:17he was looking forward to pushing on with a major spring offensive.
00:21But that offensive has, to put it mildly, stalled.
00:25During recent months, Ukraine has pushed back. Not only has it stopped the Russian offensive in key
00:30directions, but according to a growing number of sources, it has in fact recaptured significant
00:36swathes of territory following unprecedented victories. At the same time, Ukrainian President
00:42Volodymyr Zelensky's campaign of long-range sanctions, meaning long-range drone and missile
00:47strikes deep inside Russia, has intensified, as has the damage they are inflicting. Things are
00:54clearly heating on and behind the front lines, especially under Russian backsides.
00:59Here are the latest developments and what they tell us about where the war is headed.
01:03In his regular evening address on Friday, May 22nd, Zelensky stated that Ukrainian positions
01:09on the front line have significantly strengthened in recent months.
01:13Indeed, Ukrainian positions are stronger now than in previous years. Since the beginning of the year,
01:19590 square kilometers of our territory have been liberated and brought back under control.
01:26The trend is definitely not in the occupiers' interests. We continue to increase the rate
01:31of destruction of Russian personnel. This, together with sanctions in all forms,
01:35is forcing Russia to choose diplomacy, he said.
01:38Also on Friday, Bloomberg reported on a newly declassified US defense intelligence assessment
01:44that put the amount of territory recaptured at around 154 square miles since February.
01:50A few days earlier, the Institute for the Study of War had put the amount of recaptured territory
01:54at around 44.8 square miles in April alone. Taken together, these numbers suggest that the rate
02:01of recapture is increasing. The Economist's War Tracker corroborated Ukraine's advances,
02:06reporting that small but significant advances have been made throughout 2026 to date,
02:11the largest since 2023. That's fair given the scale of the effort required for Ukraine to liberate
02:17all of this territory currently occupied by Russia. It's hard to put an exact number on the amount of
02:22that territory. However, it's generally considered to be roughly a fifth of Ukraine's total territory,
02:27around 45,000 square miles. So 154 square miles in four to five months is a good start,
02:34but there's a very long way to go yet. A large part of the difficulty in precisely mapping areas of
02:40control is that the front lines change daily. That's inevitable, given the scale of operations
02:45across the approximately 680-mile-long line of combat. In 2025, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense
02:51reported that 61,605 combat engagements had been recorded over the year, at an average of roughly 169
02:59battles per day. The most intense day of the year was November 28, when 311 combat engagements with the
03:06enemy were recorded. The widespread use of drones has also meant that dozens of miles behind the
03:13most advanced positions on either side have effectively been turned into kill zones, where
03:17any movement is potentially fatal. As a result, both sides have largely abandoned traditional
03:23offensives based on columns of armor. Instead, both sides are primarily operating with small groups of
03:28insurgent infantry, who are often able to penetrate miles behind enemy positions. There,
03:33they can dig in and defend these positions, technically behind enemy lines, with delivery
03:38of supplies and ammunition taking place by drone. So, in many parts of the front, while one side may
03:43have control in the main, in reality, the situation on the ground is much murkier. They don't call these
03:49areas grey zones or covered in the fog of war for nothing. You're probably itching to know where exactly
03:54Ukraine has advanced. While the exact territory recaptured by Ukraine in these various reports
04:00hasn't been precisely specified. To a large extent, given the fast-changing grey zone characteristics
04:05of the current front lines, identifying precise areas of control for any significant length of time
04:11is a fool's errand. That said, the ISW assessment did specify several more broadly defined areas
04:17where advances were made. Starting in November 2025, the Ukrainian defense forces liberated a large portion
04:24of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. Through the winter and spring of 2026, they reclaimed over 154 square
04:30miles in southern Ukraine. And since late April 2026, they have retaken several settlements in western
04:36Zaporizhia Oblast. As you might expect, the Russians report a completely different story. A month ago,
04:42on April 21, Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, claimed that Russian forces had taken
04:48control of 80 settlements and more than 1,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory in 2026. In March and
04:55April alone, he said that Russian forces had captured 34 settlements and about 270 square miles.
05:02As for specifics, Gerasimov claimed that the captured territory includes the last remaining
05:07populated settlements in the sliver of the Luhansk Oblast still controlled by Ukraine,
05:11with geolocated footage appearing to corroborate this. He added that Russian troops are advancing on
05:17multiple fronts, establishing what he described as a security zone in Ukraine's Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
05:23Approximately 15 settlements were taken in those regions in March, he claimed,
05:27with the Kharkiv regions of Vovchansky-Kotori and Zbina added in April. He also claimed the
05:33capture of Hroshina and Pavlivka in Donetsk Oblast and Boikova, Luhivska and Veselyanka in Zaporizhia
05:40Oblast, among other advances. The ISW immediately smacked these claims down. They argued that his
05:46latest claims are not supported by open-source evidence or even by pro-Russian military bloggers.
05:51Even the most generous estimates from Russian sources, it said, suggest that Russian troops
05:56may have advanced or infiltrated no more than 276 square miles into Ukrainian territory
06:02since the start of the year, just over 40% of Gerasimov's claims, and that some of those claims
06:07are questionable. By ISW's own count based on open-source data, Russian forces had advanced just
06:14147 square miles and captured 13 settlements from January to April 21st of 2026. Since March 1st,
06:22Russian troops had taken only two settlements and had actually lost 23 square miles across the front,
06:28they said. ISW also said that Gerasimov had inflated Russian gains in several other sectors.
06:34He claimed that Russian forces had moved to within 4.35 miles of Pramitosk and 7.45 miles of Slovyansk.
06:41But even the most optimistic Russian accounts place Russian troops at least 5.6 miles from
06:46Kramitosk and 8.7 miles from Slovyansk. Those ranges would still put the two cities in range of
06:52drone strikes, which appears to be the case. Together with the embattled city of Konstantinivka,
06:57the two cities form the last heavily fortified axes of populated territory in the Donbas,
07:01still completely under Ukraine's control. Still, the ISW concludes that Gerasimov's exaggerations
07:08are likely an attempt to mask what it called the Russian military's disappointing lack of progress
07:12in its Spring Summer 2026 offensive. In fact, as a result of Ukraine's successful counterattacks,
07:18ISW said Russian forces have had to scale back operations in several sectors because of heavy
07:24losses. These attacks, combined with steadfast defense, have forced Russian troops to spend more
07:29resources simply to keep up the impression of steady advances across the front. Simultaneously,
07:35they assess that mounting losses and slower recruitment are threatening Russia's familiar
07:39tactic of sending repeated assault waves and infiltration groups into battle at high intensity
07:44and high cost. But that was a month ago, and as we know, a lot can change in only a
07:49month on the
07:50battlefields of Ukraine. Currently, there is one region where military bloggers from both sides
07:55seem to agree that Ukraine is making some serious headway. Western and southern Zaporizhia,
08:00including the Russian-occupied lands just to the south. The main thrust of the Russian offensive
08:05in Zaporizhia over the past year or so has been in the east, where the Oblast borders Dnipropetrovsk
08:11Oblast and Donetsk Oblast. Having largely dislodged the Ukrainians from the key city of Hulia Pola,
08:16they have been trying to inch their way toward the last large town in the south of the Oblast,
08:20still under firm Ukrainian control, Orochiv. But the real prize in the Oblast is in the far west,
08:26Zaporizhia. Here, in a stop-start campaign characterized by huge losses from a relentless
08:32Ukrainian drone massacre, they managed to eventually grind northwards up the M-18 highway.
08:37Eventually, they managed to capture parts of the town of Stepnohirsk and approach Pavlivka. Securing
08:42this area would provide the springboard to attack Primorska, Malokaterinivka and Veselyanka,
08:48the last major settlements before the outskirts of the city. First, the Ukrainians thwarted the
08:53offensive, and now they are pushing back half. The Ukrainians have, by all accounts,
08:58retaken Stepnohirsk completely and are busy clearing remaining pockets of resistance in Pavlivka.
09:03Next up, or down to be more precise since they are heading south, is Kamianska. If the Ukrainians
09:09can take Kamianska, the road lies open to the crucial town of Veselyevka. Russian analysts are biting their
09:15nails at this prospect. Taken together with other developments in the area, they fear this Ukrainian
09:20push might be part of the build-up to a much more serious situation, the recapture of Anir-Hadar,
09:25home of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. This MPP is one of the most hotly contested places in
09:31Ukraine, and a major stumbling block in all attempts so far to thrash out a peace settlement to end the
09:36war. The Russians seized it during their initial invasion in 2022, and have subsequently connected it
09:42to the Russian power grid, where it is a primary source of power for the occupied territories.
09:47Ukraine, needless to say, demands it back. The Russians, needless to say, refuse.
09:52Various compromises have been proposed. Arguably the most promising of those, if Ukraine is unable to
09:58ultimately oust Russia from the occupied lands, is a power-sharing arrangement, perhaps managed by a
10:03third party like the US. But as with many of the other key points of disagreement between the two sides,
10:08nothing has stuck to date. Just a quick reminder, if you haven't done so already, subscribe to the
10:14channel. On The Military Show, we provide daily updates of the most important military developments
10:19around the world, along with cutting-edge analysis that explains what these developments mean.
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10:27Russian analysts now fear that the Ukrainian push through Stepnohirsk towards Vasilivka
10:32is really all about clearing the way for an assault on Anir-Hadar to retake the MPP from the east.
10:37At the same time as this offensive, they say Ukrainian forces would pour over the Dnieper river from the north,
10:42creating a two-pronged attack that would be difficult to suppress.
10:46But that advance to the east of the city is not the only sign that something big might be brewing
10:51in
10:51the area. Russian analysts also point to recent mandatory evacuation orders given by Ukrainian
10:56authorities in and around the town of Nikopol. Situated in that part of the Dnieper Petrovsk Oblast to
11:02the west of Zaporizhia, as the capital city of the Oblast is affectionately known by residents,
11:07the Nikopol district is only some four miles from the MPP, albeit on the opposite side of the Dnieper.
11:13On May 12, all 28 families with children in Novokivka and Ilinka near Manahets and Vishitarasivka
11:19near Marivka, along with residents of one street in the village of Marinets and 100 streets in Nikopol,
11:25were ordered to evacuate within a month by the regional military administration.
11:29Officially, this is to save the population from intensifying Russian shelling and bombing.
11:34Unofficially, the evacuation would open a direct route for an offensive on Anir-Hadar.
11:38At the same time, in recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have turned the critical M-14 highway
11:43to the south of Anir-Hadar into a living hell for Russian logistics.
11:47Now, this isn't just any old highway. Known by the Russians as the R-280 Novosaya Highway,
11:52it runs east-west and links mainland Russia with Crimea, occupied Kherson and Mykolaiv to the west,
11:58and the front lines to the east. It's been described as a road for life for civilian and military
12:03movement and has served as a key logistics corridor for Russian supplies, fuel, and command posts.
12:08But not anymore. As a panicked Russian press attests, the road of life has become a road of death
12:14under sustained and intense attack by Ukrainian drones and missiles in recent weeks.
12:18Footage published on May 21 shows a growing graveyard of destroyed vehicles alongside the road.
12:24Geolocated footage published the following day also shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian trucks
12:30along the H-20 Mariupol-Donetsk City Highway, a nearby highway that Ukrainian forces have been
12:35significantly interdicting in recent weeks. It's become so dangerous on the M-14 that the Russian
12:41occupation head of Kherson Oblast, Vladimir Saldo, was forced last week to issue a decree restricting
12:46freight vehicle movement on a section of the M-14. This unprecedented move, with exceptions only for
12:52military and essential goods, is a direct acknowledgement that the highway has become too dangerous for regular
12:58transport. Of course, these strikes disrupt Russian logistics and complicate supply on the front lines
13:03and in Crimea in general. The M-14 is the primary land route connecting the peninsula with the
13:08occupied territories. But if Ukraine is planning a surprise attack to retake Enohadar, they're taking
13:14place in exactly the area that Ukraine would want to thwart Russian attempts to bring reinforcements.
13:18Now, we should stress at this stage this is all just speculation. There's very little from
13:23the Ukrainian side to suggest that an offensive on Enohadar is in the works. Then again, that's exactly
13:29what you'd expect with a forthcoming surprise offensive. Ukraine made the mistake of widely
13:33broadcasting its intentions to conduct a major counter-offensive back in 2023, allowing the Russians
13:39the time to ultimately mount a successful defense. However, they may have learned from their mistake.
13:44Absolute silence preceded Ukraine's next major offensive, the incursion into Kursk in 2024,
13:49which caught the Russians completely by surprise. So if there is to be a surprise Enohadar offensive,
13:56the last place you're likely to hear about it first is from Zelenskyy or his commander-in-chief,
14:00Oleksandr Sierskyy. It's also possible that the push through Stepnohiersk, the evacuation orders in
14:05Nikopol, and particularly the M-14 strikes are simply elements of Ukraine's broad and effective
14:10strategies for 2026, as ISW highlights. According to the institute, Ukrainian forces have significantly
14:17intensified their mid-range strikes and battlefield air interdiction in recent months, generating
14:22cascading effects on the battlefield and inhibiting Russian advances. These strikes have also provided
14:27the impetus for Ukraine's advances on the ground. But there's another key component to these successes
14:31that also caught the Russians completely by surprise, shutting them off from Starlink. That
14:37declassified US defense intelligence assessment we mentioned earlier identified this move as key to
14:42Ukraine's progress in 2026. Starlink is at the heart of Ukrainian operations, both on the front lines
14:48and guiding its long-range strikes, but it's not available to Russians. That hasn't stopped the Russians
14:53from accumulating thousands of illegal, smuggled Starlink terminals and becoming increasingly reliant
14:58on them. The system helped address long-standing communication shortfalls, enabling coordination of
15:04troop movements, drone operations, and artillery targeting. But that all came to an abrupt
15:08halt in February. In conjunction with SpaceX, Elon Musk's company that operates the network,
15:14Ukrainian teams introduced geographic restrictions that disabled unauthorized terminals operating in
15:20the combat zone. Avid followers of frontline reports noticed the impact on Russian operations
15:25almost immediately. Now, US intelligence has confirmed it. The effect was compounded by Russians
15:30shooting themselves in the foot by restricting the use of the messaging app Telegram. The app has been
15:35widely used as an informal replacement for Starlink and their own meagre communication systems.
15:40The restrictions on the app are hugely unpopular in Russia and have arguably done more to disgruntle
15:45the Russian public with the state of Putin's war than any other factor. And if the general public is
15:49unhappy, you can imagine how charmed Russian troops on the front lines under constant Ukrainian drone
15:54pressure are with the development. The combined loss of both Starlink connectivity and access to
15:59messaging platforms deeply degraded coordination on the ground, leading directly to confusion between units and
16:05disrupted chains of command. For a while, social media was filled with Russian soldiers griping
16:09about the loss of their Starlinks. One was filmed kicking his receiver, and another was using his as
16:15a dining table. Some appealed to the public for help, with one saying that, in a single night we
16:20completely descended into the stone age. Ukraine seized the moment to exploit this chaos and plunged forward.
16:26While acknowledging the role played by the Starlink shutoff in Ukraine's 2026 advances,
16:31Ukrainian authorities dispute that it is the only reason for their successes. The operation in the
16:36south began a month before the decision regarding Starlink, Zelensky reported, suggesting that it was
16:41just one element within a larger framework. Former Digital Transformation Minister and current Minister
16:46of Defense Mikhailo Fedorov agreed with him, saying that the restrictions on Starlink terminals,
16:51together with the use of medium-range strike drones, had contributed to shifting momentum in Ukraine's
16:56favor. It's taken the Russians a couple of months to come up with some kind of solution, but there are
17:01signs that they're starting to close this glaring vulnerability. To start with, they've been hacking
17:06together chains of LTE modems, Wi-Fi bridges, relay stations, and mesh networks, and these relatively
17:12low-tech mesh networks are starting to become a nuisance. Mesh network modems allow operators to control
17:18UAVs at significantly extended ranges over the horizon, by forming airborne communication chains that are
17:24harder to disrupt and can reroute data if individual drones are lost. To make matters worse, Russia has
17:29established relay stations across the border in Belarus, which allow drones to maintain connectivity
17:34as they fly across Ukrainian territory. Perhaps more tellingly, in the long run, Russia also recently
17:40launched the first satellites in what is ultimately intended to be its own analog of Starlink. On March 23rd,
17:46Russian company Bureau 1440 brought into low orbit the first 16 broadband internet satellites of the new
17:53Razvek constellation. It's the first step in building an infrastructure that is intended to have at
17:57least 300 satellites by 2030. Although positioned by Russia as primarily a civilian technology akin to
18:04Starlink, the system clearly has dual-use cases. And given Russia's problems having lost access to
18:10Starlink, the timing of the launch strongly suggests that the priority is addressing those issues.
18:15There are signs that it's already starting to have an impact. Starlink-quality video feeds from its
18:20long-range drones have started appearing, a major upgrade from the grainier footage these drones
18:25typically produce. What kind of impact the introduction of these new technologies will have remains to be
18:30seen. Perhaps they'll enable Russia to re-seize the initiative. Or maybe Ukraine's growing offensive
18:36will just swap them away as irrelevant. We will of course be keeping a close eye and keeping you posted,
18:41so make sure you subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. In the meantime, check out this video
18:45about how Ukraine is building a robot army to extend its advances even further. And thank you,
18:51as always, for watching.
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