Germany may have just changed the future of Ukraine forever. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed a brand-new “associate membership” status that would bring Ukraine dramatically closer to the EU long before full accession. From security guarantees and defense support to influence over major European decisions, this plan could reshape the balance of power in Europe and leave Vladimir Putin facing a far stronger, more united front. Here’s why Merz’s proposal could become one of the biggest turning points of the war.
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00:00Germany has been one of Ukraine's biggest supporters over the course of the country's
00:04war with Russia so far, delivering billions of euros in civilian and military aid.
00:09But Berlin just took its support to a whole new level, offering Kyiv something that it's
00:14wanted for so long to be part of the European Union. This could change everything, drastically
00:20enhancing Ukraine's power and influence while leaving Russia and its President Vladimir Putin
00:24completely powerless. It's an unprecedented display of support and it was officially put into writing
00:30by the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who recently wrote a letter to EU Chiefs Ursula von der Leyen
00:36and Antonio Costa. The letter was shared with news agencies on Thursday, May 21, and promptly shared
00:42with the wider world. Merz began by acknowledging the difficult fact that Ukraine most likely won't
00:48be able to become a fully-fledged member of the European Union anytime soon. It's obvious that
00:53we will not be able to complete the accession process shortly, given the countless hurdles
00:57as well as the political complexities of ratification processes. That's not what the Ukrainian President
01:02Volodymyr Zelenskyy will have wanted to hear, as he's been pushing to have his country join the EU
01:06since the very start of its war with Russia. Indeed, it was only a few days after the invasion began
01:10that Ukraine officially applied to join the Union, with Zelenskyy suggesting that some sort of
01:15new special procedure be created to speed through the usual accession process. Several European leaders
01:20showed willingness to comply with this request, with numerous nations supporting some sort of
01:25accelerated accession that would grant Ukraine all EU privileges as soon as possible.
01:30Even then, however, those in the highest positions of power called for calm and warned that this sort
01:34of thing simply cannot happen overnight. Fonda Lyon, the President of the European Commission,
01:39said that she too supported the idea of Ukraine in the EU, but warned that it would take time.
01:44In the months that followed, Ukraine was asked to provide certain pieces of information,
01:47and by late June of 2022, the European Council had granted it the status of a
01:51candidate for accession, which put it alongside other candidates like Albania, Moldova, Serbia and
01:57Turkey. But if Ukraine was hoping for a similar speedy resolution to the larger accession process,
02:02it would be sorely disappointed. It wasn't until December 2023 that the European Council
02:06officially decided to open accession negotiations with Kyiv, and the country had to wait six more
02:11months for those negotiations to actually commence. Still, as time passed, it appeared that Ukraine was
02:16inching closer to the EU membership it so desperately desired, following in the footsteps of other
02:21former Soviet republics like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which all joined the EU.
02:26In June 2025, however, Hungary, under the rule of Viktor Orban, who was long seen as Putin's
02:32inside man in the EU, blocked the opening of accession talks for Ukraine. And even though Orban
02:37has since been ousted, there have been numerous signs to suggest that full membership is still some way off.
02:42Mertz himself, for example, said in July of last year that it could take a number of years, while
02:47von der Leyen said that the country could potentially join the EU by 2030 if it was able to maintain
02:52the
02:52pace of its ongoing reforms, which are necessary to meet the Union's strict standards. Ukraine doesn't
02:58want to wait that long, and leaders like Mertz have been pondering alternative solutions to help get
03:03the country closer to its ambitions, which brings us back to the letter. Having admitted that full membership
03:08may still be some way away, Mertz went on to write, what I envisage is a political solution that brings
03:14Ukraine substantially closer to the European Union and its core institutions immediately. He then
03:19detailed his plan to grant Ukraine associate member status of the EU as a kind of interim arrangement
03:26before full accession can officially take place. It's important to note that associate membership does
03:31not officially exist in any EU rules or regulations at the moment, so Mertz is effectively suggesting that the
03:37union should create a whole new membership class exclusively for Ukraine, though it could
03:42theoretically be used for other countries in the future as well. The chancellor went on to detail
03:46exactly what he believes this new status should include. More specifically, he said an associate
03:51member should be able to enjoy additional rights and protections compared to a usual candidate for a
03:56session, while also having additional obligations to fulfill in order to effectively earn those rights and
04:02protections. Among other things, Mertz stated that as an associate member, Ukraine could be allowed to
04:07participate in EU meetings without voting rights. That's already a huge deal, because these are places
04:12where EU governments effectively come together to make big decisions. It's where they coordinate on
04:17sanctions against Russia, for example, or discuss how best to aid Ukraine via military or humanitarian means.
04:23It's also where they debate and decide on numerous other important matters that genuinely affect Ukraine,
04:28both now and moving forward, like energy policies, reconstruction funding, and diplomatic strategies.
04:34If Ukraine were able to be present in those meetings, then Kyiv's officials would actually be
04:39able to influence and shape discussions directly, rather than just relying on their allies to represent
04:44them and hoping for the best. They'd also be able to enjoy faster and more direct access to intelligence
04:49about how the EU is operating and the big political decisions its leaders are debating, along with the
04:55opportunity to lobby ministers and leaders in real time. That, in turn, could give Ukraine additional
05:00influence when it comes to deciding on the things that matter most, like sanctions on Russia and
05:04weapons procurement plans. Let's say, for example, that the EU was debating something like how best to
05:10seize or freeze Russian assets. Ukrainian officials would be able to directly explain how that move would
05:15actually impact the battlefield as part of the ongoing discussions, rather than having to rely on
05:20alternative diplomatic channels, which are often much slower and less effective. It would be a huge
05:25shift from how things currently operate, as despite having a lot of friends in Europe, Ukraine is
05:30still effectively not in the room when the big decisions are actually made. Merz's associate membership
05:35plan would give Kyiv a seat at the table, and this wouldn't just be a short-term benefit. The new
05:39EU
05:40members often have to spend significant time sitting in and learning the way Brussels actually works.
05:45Getting a foot in the door now would help Ukrainian officials become more familiar with EU
05:49decision-making practices and policies, easing the friction if and when the full membership actually
05:54comes. Merz also suggested that Ukraine could benefit from what he calls gradual integration
05:59into the EU budget. Analysts believe this could imply some sort of access to EU-funded programs and
06:05financial mechanisms. Again, the prospective benefits of this are enormous. War is an expensive affair,
06:11and Ukraine has been forced to churn through quite extraordinary amounts of money to defend its
06:15territory, fend off the near-constant Russian assaults, and develop new weapons and defenses as
06:20the war has progressed. The country also faces colossal bills connected to the devastation its towns,
06:26cities, and key infrastructure have suffered over the years, with certain regions suffering severe
06:30economic collapse. It's possible that a deeper level of access to the EU budget could help Ukraine
06:36secure the money it needs for reconstruction, new infrastructure development, industrial support,
06:40transport, and more. Of course, Ukraine already receives generous amounts of financial assistance
06:45from its European allies, but has often had to rely on the likes of loans and special financial
06:50assistance packages rather than more direct, integrated support via the European budget.
06:55In the long term, this could work wonders for the country's battered and bruised economy.
06:59We've already seen the incredible effects the EU budget can have on other nations,
07:03as European financial support has quite literally transformed the economies of Poland,
07:07Romania, and the Baltic states, to name but a few key examples. It's been used to construct roads,
07:12railways, and ports, as well as to improve digital infrastructure, education, research, and defense.
07:17For Ukraine, that level of financial access could help with rebuilding war-damaged regions,
07:22improving or modernizing some of the country's industries that have been somewhat overlooked or
07:26left behind during the war, and deepening integration with European supply chains, easing the
07:31country's dependence on older Soviet-era systems. In short, it can only be a good thing for the
07:36country's economic growth and future GDP prospects. But that's just the start. Merz's plan also
07:42includes an even bigger benefit that could dramatically affect Ukraine's chances of winning this war.
07:47But before we dig into that, this is why we make the military show, to explain how power really moves.
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07:57The German Chancellor also feels that if Ukraine is granted associate member status,
08:02it should include the ability to invoke Article 42.7 of the EU Treaties on Mutual Assistance and Defense.
08:09Article 42.7 is almost like the EU equivalent of NATO's Article 5, which states that if one member
08:15state is attacked, all other members should come to its aid. It clearly states,
08:19If a member state is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other member states shall have
08:24towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power. As soon as a member
08:29state triggers this article, there is no need for any formal European Council discussion, decision,
08:34or any sort of unanimous vote. Everyone should automatically come together to support the beleaguered
08:39nation. In Merz's terms, this will provide a substantial security guarantee to Ukraine moving forward,
08:45with both immediate and long-term benefits. It would also send a very clear message to Moscow that it's
08:51no longer at war with Ukraine alone, but with the whole of Europe. In a way, that's already been
08:56true for quite some time, as European Union countries and others outside of the alliance,
09:00like the United Kingdom, have supported Kyiv from early on in the conflict. However, this would quite
09:05clearly take things to another level, as EU nations would no longer simply be voluntarily helping
09:09Ukraine, but would instead be obligated to do so. This doesn't necessarily mean that EU troops would
09:15enter the war right away. We wouldn't be likely to see British, German, or French troops on the ground
09:19in the frontline combat zones, as the article actually states that each nation reserves the
09:23right to determine what sort of assistance it provides. Neutral countries, such as Ireland,
09:28for example, could provide non-military support, while others could help out with the likes of
09:32intelligence, logistics, and economic support. Then, those with significant military budgets and
09:36defence industries, like France and Germany, could pledge anything from tanks and infantry fighting
09:41vehicles to air defences and munitions. Again, this is already happening, but Mertz's plan could
09:45enhance it quite significantly. Russia, meanwhile, would have to worry about what this decision entails,
09:50as any continued aggression in Ukraine could be treated similarly to an invasion of the European
09:54Union itself, triggering the type of response that the Kremlin's war machine may struggle to contend with.
10:00In the long term, this sort of protection could be invaluable for Ukraine. Zelensky has, on dozens of
10:05occasions, stressed the importance of security guarantees. He's often said that no peace deal
10:10will ever be agreed to unless Ukraine has some sort of clear assurance that there will not be a repeat
10:15of this war and that Putin won't be allowed to simply spend a few years rebuilding his armed forces
10:19before coming up with another excuse to invade all over again. The Ukrainian president may have once
10:25hoped that those security guarantees could come in the form of NATO membership. However, the chances of
10:29the country joining that alliance appear to be shrinking, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly
10:34rejecting the idea of Ukraine ever joining NATO. Arguably, the next best thing would be for
10:39Ukraine to become part of the EU, which seems a much more realistic prospect, and if Mertz's plan
10:44comes to fruition, former Soviet state could start to be treated like a de facto member far sooner than
10:49expected. That would give Zelensky the guarantees he needs to move forward with confidence while
10:54letting Putin know that any further aggression will not be tolerated. It could put Ukraine in a more
10:58powerful position if and when the next set of peace talks comes along, which may aid Kyiv in negotiating a
11:04deal that is more in line with its aspirations, which not only include an end to the fighting,
11:08but also the recovery of all occupied territories. In the future, those security guarantees could also
11:14massively benefit the Ukrainian economy. Because even now, with Ukraine's domestic defense industry
11:19going from strength to strength, investors are still wary about getting involved with the country's
11:23economy. Even if the war ended, they'd always have the fear about another invasion plunging the country
11:28into turmoil once again. If, however, Ukraine has an EU-backed security framework with member states
11:33pledging to support and protect it, then that would help to put investors at ease. In turn, more foreign
11:38companies would be likely to invest in Ukraine, which could lead to more factories and businesses
11:43being established. That means more jobs and greater GDP growth, and even more incentive for the countless
11:48refugees who were forced to flee Ukraine to go back home when the war ends and begin the next chapter
11:53of
11:53their lives. Again, this is something that we've seen elsewhere. After entering the EU,
11:58countries like Poland and the Baltic states became more prosperous and more appealing to investors
12:02from around the world. On top of all the aforementioned benefits, Merz also suggested that Ukraine
12:07could be given some sort of assistant rapporteur role in the Court of Justice of the European Union.
12:12In other words, the country would have a low-level judicial role in Europe's court structure.
12:16This wouldn't necessarily trigger any immediate benefits for soldiers fighting on the front lines,
12:20but it still matters a great deal, as it would help Ukraine integrate itself into Europe's legal system
12:24and become more familiar with the EU's judicial standards. In the long term, this could help the
12:29country proceed with its ambition of full EU membership, because in order to become a member
12:33of the Union, candidate states have to be able to abide by a strict set of rules and standards.
12:38Ukraine has struggled in the past with issues related to corruption, oligarch influence at the
12:43highest levels of power, and legal reform issues. But with closer ties to the European system,
12:48it could more easily align its own courts with the standards of the EU. That's so important
12:52because Ukraine clearly wants to be a full and proper part of the EU eventually, but the evidence
12:57shows that this process is still likely to take several years. It's been working hard to address
13:01certain issues and brings itself in line with the rule of law standards required for EU accession,
13:06but it's still falling short in certain areas. Merz's deal would give Ukraine the guarantees it needs
13:11much quicker, while also easing the larger process of accession. It would be a both short-term and long-term
13:17win for Ukraine and a devastating blow for Russia. At the same time, there are a couple of key caveats.
13:22Merz stated that any associate membership should also come with a sort of snapback mechanism which
13:28would allow the country's status to be cancelled or revoked if ever Kyiv were to regress in its
13:32accession process or fail to uphold what Merz deems fundamental EU values. In other words, the country
13:38would need to continue along the same path it's been following so far, showing a clear commitment to
13:43meeting EU standards and doing its best to abide by all necessary rules and regulations,
13:48otherwise it would be kicked out. Fortunately, there's no indication that this would happen.
13:52Even though it's still a little lax in some areas and is actively fighting a war, which obviously makes
13:57things more difficult, the country has, in the words of the European Commission,
14:01demonstrated an impressive capacity to deliver on reforms. It's made notable improvements to its justice
14:06system and market economy, while also making efforts to tackle corruption and money laundering,
14:10and introducing more rights for national minorities too. All of this is vital for both the short-term
14:16associate membership plan and the country's long-term full membership ambitions.
14:20The only other caveat with this proposal is that it could be seen as a way for the EU to
14:24potentially
14:25delay or even back out of granting Ukraine full membership in the future, as it could argue that
14:30associate membership status is sufficient for the country's needs. However, Merz and other EU officials
14:35have repeatedly stressed that plans are still firmly in place to make Ukraine an EU member,
14:40eventually. In other words, Merz's plan doesn't aim to replace or supplant the full accession process.
14:45It's simply a stopgap solution, a way to get Ukraine the additional support and rights it needs
14:50to strengthen its position in the war. As Merz himself writes,
14:53My proposal reflects Ukraine's particular situation, a country at war. It will help facilitate the ongoing
14:59peace talks as part of a negotiated peace solution. He adds that this is vital for the security of
15:03both Ukraine itself and the entire European continent, and seems to suggest that the associate
15:08membership could come quite soon, noting that he hopes to discuss the idea with his fellow European
15:13leaders in the coming days, and stating, My aim will be able to reach an agreement soon,
15:17and to set up a dedicated task force to work out the details. Merz even said that the Balkan states,
15:22as well as Moldova, should also receive additional support regarding their accession to the Union,
15:27though he doesn't suggest that they too could become associate members.
15:31Overall, Germany continues to lead the way when it comes to not just supporting Ukraine,
15:34but securing the future of the European continent. And should Chancellor Merz's plan be approved,
15:39we could soon see far greater ties between the EU and Ukraine than ever before,
15:44with even more support in even more forms and a whole host of new problems for Putin to ponder.
15:49The Russian president's panic levels are already reaching record heights after dozens of countries
15:54pledged to punish him for his crimes in Ukraine, which you can learn more about in our video.
15:58Alternatively, check out this video for some frontline news detailing how Ukrainian forces just
16:03made a massive breakthrough and could even be on the way towards recapturing the city of Pokrovsk.
16:08Don't forget to subscribe to The Military Show for even more videos like this,
16:11and thank you as always for watching.
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