00:00It's a point very well taken on this route and the fact that you need IRGC coordination for it.
00:05If this is how it unfolds, if you do have vessels going through this specific corridor
00:11through coordination with the IRGC, does that not just cement that the Strait of Hormuz is
00:17indeed controlled by Iran? Is this something that American allies will be okay with?
00:24Again, that's an if. We don't know that all of the owners are perfectly happy to coordinate
00:30with Iran on transits. The U.S. has said it doesn't want that to happen.
00:36We need to see how that plays out in practice. It is an if. If it does happen, if there
00:41is
00:41widespread use of the Iranian route and people accept that Iran has to have a heavy involvement
00:48in transits, then yes. But that's not a proven case yet. That may happen. It may not.
00:53At the same time, we are getting headlines coming from European world leaders, from Friedrich Merz
00:59to Keir Starmer to Macron, talking about the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And Trump
01:04also posting on Truth Social saying that NATO has called asking if we need help on the Strait
01:09of Hormuz, that he received a call and saying that they should stay away unless they want ships
01:15with oil, again, emphasizing, saying, I told them to stay away. Alaric, what do we know
01:20about efforts from other nations, from NATO, from the Europeans, to try to do something
01:25that would allow them to travel through the Strait of Hormuz?
01:29I think if you look back at when they were making a lot of noises about going through or
01:36helping to secure Hormuz, what they actually said was they'd be willing to do it in a more
01:42peaceful environment. And we aren't at that peaceful environment yet. To get the main
01:46Hormuz shipping route going, it may need to be demined. And those are kind of jobs that
01:52could get done in a peacetime environment or a more peaceful environment, let's say.
01:57And that's what really I think the offer from the Western governments or the non-American
02:01governments is to help when they feel that the situation is more secure. They don't want
02:06to kind of be patrolling in an area that Iran is kind of routinely attacking. They want to do it
02:12when they feel like there is a more negotiated and confident sort of peace environment.
02:17Alaric, it seems that maybe the president is listening to you because literally right as you
02:21said that, this coming from the president on Truth Social, Iran, with the help of the USA,
02:25has removed or is removing all sea mines. So how big of a difference would that make? Just to
02:31emphasize the point you just made, Alaric, if that is indeed the truth, how far does that go to
02:36reopening the Strait of Hormuz and giving ships the comfort to traverse it?
02:41There's been so much said about mines, whether they are, whether they aren't, when they're being
02:45put in or exactly where they are, all of those kinds of things. What we know is that the kind
02:52of
02:52old route, the traditional and normal route has been avoided. If they demine it and if there is full
03:00confidence, there is still the question of what Iran is supportive of. Will they allow people to
03:09use the old route without coordination with Iran? Again, a lot of owners or several owners have said
03:16to us they don't want to coordinate with Iran. They want freedom of navigation to be freedom of
03:21navigation and just to be able to go through as they normally would. And all of these things need to
03:27be worked out in time. It's very possible that if we keep going towards peace, these things can happen,
03:34but we're not there yet.
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