00:00What it showed me is just kind of how on paper this company does not appear to match the
00:06astronomical numbers that we are hearing around this IPO. You know, we've reported that they
00:13potentially will go public at a $2 trillion valuation or something around there. They want
00:18to raise tens of billions of dollars. But when you look at the actual raw numbers, you know,
00:23this company seems to be losing money. Its launch business wasn't profitable last year.
00:29Now, it's Starlink internet business, which provides broadband with its satellite constellation
00:34around the earth. You know, that does seem to be growing. It's growing subscribers. It's bringing
00:40in more and more revenue each year. But overall, it does not seem to match, you know, the hype that
00:47this IPO has been creating. Astronomical. I see what you did there. Very clever, very clever.
00:53But I found this so interesting because, yeah, to your point, you know, targeting a $2 trillion
00:58valuation. But when you look at the prospectus, it's the unsexier parts of the company that are
01:03doing really well, like Starlink. So are they pivoting at all? Are they leaning into that? Are
01:07they still focused on the big shiny space objects when they go to potential stockholders,
01:12investors and say, like, give us this money. This is what we're worth.
01:15I think what a lot of people have noticed and what I also noticed about this, which is bizarre for
01:20me as
01:20somebody who's been covering SpaceX for so long, is that SpaceX appears now to be all in on AI.
01:27It's more of an AI company than it does seem to be a space company. Now, that being said, its
01:33space
01:34component is, you know, extremely valuable and important for what it wants to do with this AI
01:39sector, right? It's been talking about launching up to a million AI data centers in space. And the way
01:47that you do that is through launch. So that is still a really critical part of its mission and
01:52what it needs to do in order to achieve all of these aspirational goals. And then at the same time,
01:57its Starlink business is the one that is proving that it can actually make money from a large
02:04constellation of satellites in space. So I think that will ultimately still continue to grow and help
02:10to supplement, you know, a lot of these big aspirational goals. But at the same time, it's very clear
02:16that the launch part of the business is not the big moneymaker. Still, it's extremely valuable for
02:23what they want to do. Big question here is what this means for the man behind this company for
02:28Elon Musk and all the whispers that he'll be the world's first trillionaire. Again, going back to what
02:34was filed this week, what did we learn about his compensation, how he's likely to profit or make out
02:39from this IPO when it happens? Right. So I think that he's, you know, his big pay package is tied
02:46to probably one of the most amazing goals you could possibly have as a CEO, which is this idea that
02:54you'll get paid when we have up to a million residents on a Mars colony. A million residents
02:59on Mars. Yeah, I let's just say I I'm not sure that is something that Elon will be seeing in
03:07his
03:07lifetime. I'm happy if you want to bring me back on the show when that is achieved. And I'll say
03:13that
03:13I'm wrong. I'm happy to do that. That is just an extremely aspirational goal. But you have to admit,
03:20you know, this is this is a prospectus that reads more like science fiction than and then other
03:26prospectuses. So that's that's fun for us. And it'll be interesting to see just how much they
03:32get to that goal moving forward. But I did want to ask you about that, because I mean, this is
03:36serious money and these are serious investors. And when you have someone writing the other part of
03:40that was that he wants, say, like a humanity backup plan on this Mars colony, kind of a space arc
03:45in
03:45case nuclear winter or something happens. I mean, does that frighten investors at all? Like, yes,
03:51it's fun and aspirational. But if this is the focus of the man running this company and not the parts
03:55of
03:55the company that are actually tangible and making money, does that spark any concern?
04:00I think one thing that you could probably take away from what was in this document is that SpaceX
04:06does not appear to be very concerned with what I think other companies would be concerned about,
04:12which is showing that they're not making money, you know, showing this extreme CapEx, the capital
04:18expenditure that they have. I think what they're banking on is kind of the, you know, cult of
04:25personality around Elon and the fact that they have this extremely impressive resume with bringing
04:31down launch costs, you know, being an extremely valuable launch provider for commercial, the launch
04:37marketplace and the U.S. government and even the world. And so I think what they are banking on is
04:43having investors remember that past success and how they've been able to dominate the launch market,
04:49dominate the space industry, and hoping that people will want to buy in because of that past success
04:55and see them replicate that moving forward. So I think if you're going to invest in SpaceX now,
05:01it's not because you're hoping to have these short-term gains, you know, in the next year or even in
05:07the
05:07next five years. I think what you're doing now is you're saying, I'm going all in on Elon Musk's vision,
05:13and because of what he's achieved in the past, I think he can do it again in the future, and
05:18I want
05:18to be along for that ride. So critical to what Elon Musk is proposing there, the company's proposing
05:23they're getting all these people to Mars, is this Starship rocket. Talk about the importance of that
05:29to the launch side of the business, figuring out a way to get this to launch reliably in a way
05:34that it
05:34hasn't been able to so far. Right. Well, I think you'll notice that in their prospectus,
05:40one of their top risk factors is Starship. And like I said earlier, you know, while launch appears
05:47on paper to be a small part of this business, it's extremely important to what they want to do next.
05:54And Starship is basically the backbone of all of these future ambitions. You know, they want to launch
06:01these data centers in a space, they have to be able to launch on Starship. They want to launch larger
06:07versions of their Starlink satellites. Those are specifically designed to launch on Starship. Also,
06:14their future direct-to-cell satellites, which connect to unmodified smartphones, they also have
06:21to launch on Starship. And so what they detail in their filing is that if Starship doesn't work,
06:27or if it's majorly delayed, that's going to have a huge ripple effect on all of these major programs.
06:32So Starship has to work. They've designed it. They've made it on the critical path for all of
06:38their success. And so it has to work in order for all of these things to happen. And so,
06:44again, launch may seem small, but in the end, it's the key pivotal point for their future.
06:51Lauren Gresh, thank you very much. You're welcome back anytime before or after Elon Musk gets a
06:55million people to Mars. Happy to have you on anytime. Thank you very much.
06:57Yeah, if you want to zoom in from Mars, that's also fine. Just let us know.
07:00Yeah, no. I'll take the moon, maybe not Mars.
07:02There we go.
07:03There we go.
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