00:00Is this a space company? Yeah, I mean, yeah, so we've been making the case for a long time,
00:05over a decade now, that the space economy is a lot more than just rockets and satellites, right?
00:10Now we have a definitive proof point. So SpaceX is the one of the key takeaways for the S1 for
00:15me
00:16is that SpaceX is definitively a an AI company, right? Like they are not a space company in the
00:21traditional sense anymore. If you look at the big numbers that they're putting out, right, a 29
00:26trillion dollar TAM, largest addressable TAM in human history, 90% of that is AI. So and they're
00:33putting that out there because that's their North Star. Like that's the market that they're going
00:36after. Yeah. And they're building out the infrastructure to enable them to capitalize on
00:41that. I am curious and you're going to hear the criticism when people see that total addressable
00:46market. There are a lot of people say, OK, that's just BS. That's just something made up. Where is
00:51that market coming from? I mean, in terms of the use, in terms of the end user, in terms of
00:56the customers? And I know we're talking long term, but where is that? Yeah. So the IPO is
01:01a headline, but this opportunity is much broader. So we are in the early innings of a multi decade
01:07infrastructure cycle. There is hundreds of billions of dollars of infrastructure, legacy
01:12systems that are on orbit today that are being replaced. And we're building out an entirely new
01:17layer. Right. So SpaceX is at the center of this and they own the rails. So they are in a
01:24very
01:24advantageous position to take advantage of the fact that space and ground are converging
01:30on a macro scale. So you look at where the revenue is coming from and where the real business
01:34growth is coming from. They got Starlink, which is Internet broadband. You got direct to sell
01:40going up to the telco market, which is much bigger. And now you've got orbital data centers
01:45that are going to be doing inference as well. So you put all those things together. I mean,
01:49that is a lot of infrastructure. And that's what I think allocators are betting on here is
01:56that SpaceX is going to be the company that owns access to infrastructure for, you know,
02:03that's going to be powering the global economy for the next 50 years. When it comes to valuation,
02:06you said that this shouldn't be modeled with traditional DCF, but rather over 50 years of
02:10framework of infrastructure. Some critics might say that that just means fundamentals don't matter.
02:15What would your response be? So we are
02:21another headline is the net loss, right? And if you think about the fact that Starlink is,
02:26they have 30% growth in revenue, nearly $19 billion. A lot of the hole to fill is because
02:34of their big CapEx spend, right? So they're investing heavy CapEx into AI and into Starship.
02:40When those things come online, they're going to power a ton of growth for this company.
02:44So when you're thinking about the revenue today is coming from Starlink broadband. We're not even
02:52the direct to sell satellites haven't even printed any revenue. Orbital data centers haven't printed
02:57any revenue. They've got billions of dollars in contracts with NASA to build a moon base and to
03:02support that, right? And there's all these other frontier markets as well that that are in
03:07line of sight for this company. So it's really hard to look at this company and say, you know,
03:11I'm going to look at a growth rate in perpetuity and like assign a terminal value here and do a
03:18regression analysis. This is not something that you value with a DCF model. This is something that
03:23you value with options. So you mentioned Starship. We know it's generating billions of dollars,
03:27but why are we absorbing heavy losses into AI and Starship? Is the message here that profitability is
03:33less important now than speed perhaps? Well, so I think they've filled the gap on the AI side,
03:39right with this anthropic deal. So they're bringing in one and a quarter billion dollars a month,
03:4440 billion dollars through 2029. So yeah, I think that they've filled the hole on the AI side.
03:50Starship is a vehicle that they've been investing heavily into. There's been 15 billion dollars invested
03:54into this program. We'll see what happens tonight, but they're expecting it to come online and to reach
04:00operational cadence by next year. So today and later today is going to be very exciting to watch this
04:05test flight and see how it goes. But Starship is critical to the future of this business.
04:10It's what enables all those businesses that we've talked about. The base case model is dependent
04:16on Starship. So it needs to work. I am curious about some of the other companies you're invested
04:21in. Obviously, SpaceX is the largest by default. But when we talk about Rocket Lab and Varda and some
04:27of these other names here, is this all just sort of part of a SpaceX flywheel or are these sort
04:32of
04:32individual stories on their own? Yeah, so SpaceX is the apex player, hands down, right? I mean,
04:37the only reason that we're talking about this as an investable category is because of the work that
04:41they've done to provide access to orbit at affordable and transparent prices. So that's what's enabled new
04:48entrants to come in and try out, you know, innovate and try new business models and raise capital to do
04:54that. We're seeing innovation across, just to give you a sense of the scale of what we're talking about
04:59here. So GPS, 24 satellites have generated trillions of dollars in economic value.
05:07We now have 18,000 satellites in orbit. 10,000 of those are SpaceX. 8,000 of those are others.
05:12We're going to be launching 2 million satellites between now and 2040. We are at an inflection
05:18point. There is an incredible amount of growth here. SpaceX is clearly the apex player, but there are
05:23a number of other companies doing really incredible things. All right. Are you going to be, where's the
05:30actual IPO? This is not going to be at the Nas X site. Is he going to do this down
05:33like at Starbase or
05:35somewhere? So I don't have those details, but it wouldn't surprise me. When Firefly went public,
05:41they did it and they timed it with the bell ringing with a rocket test. Well, there's been a lot
05:46of rumors
05:46saying that he's planning something big and that it's not necessarily going to be in Manhattan. I'm sure
05:49it will be.
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