00:00the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book.
00:02Its real-time survey of economic conditions across the United States
00:06is painting a troubling picture.
00:09Uncertainty from the Iran war
00:11is actively hobbling American business decision-making on hiring,
00:15an investment in a way that pre-recession surveys historically look like.
00:19Business leaders across multiple Fed districts
00:22report they are delaying capital expenditures,
00:25holding hiring freezes,
00:26and accelerating contingency planning for a potential recession scenario.
00:31Consumer sentiment has fallen sharply as gas prices climb and grocery bills rise.
00:37The classic early warning indicators of a coming recession are appearing simultaneously,
00:42declining consumer spending growth,
00:44rising credit delinquencies,
00:47falling business investment,
00:48and rising unemployment claims.
00:50The Fed faces a trap,
00:52raising interest rates to fight the oil-driven inflation risks
00:56triggering the very recession it wants to avoid.
00:59Cutting rates to stimulate growth risks making inflation,
01:02already driven by energy costs,
01:05even worse.
01:06Either path carries severe consequences.
01:09The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank
01:11has separately warned that sustained oil above $100 per barrel
01:15historically precedes recession within two to three quarters.
01:19The Iran war has become an American economic emergency
01:23hiding in plain sight.
01:24new
01:24new
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