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With the biggest World Cup in history on the horizon, we take a deep dive into the nations most likely to be crowned champions in 2026. This segment focuses on Spain, the current European champions.
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00:08In less than 30 days, 48 nations will descend on North America for the biggest and most chaotic
00:13World Cup in history. But while so many arrive, only a few go down as favourites in my book,
00:19because for every super team on paper, every superstar that should light up the tournament,
00:23there's always egos, giant killings and tactical gambles that threaten to derail everything in
00:28an instant. From the last dance of the goats to the most insane squad depth and one dark horse along
00:33the way as well, here are my 2026 World Cup favourites. Now let's start with a fairly obvious
00:43one, I think. A team who went through qualifying unbeaten, the current holders of the European
00:47Championships and at the heart of it all, a teenager who seems to have skipped the rookie
00:51phase of his career entirely and is now a certified world beater. It's Spain. Now, understandably,
00:57you could say that the Euros was two years ago and football has changed a lot since then. However,
01:02the continuation of the Spanish squad has been pretty impressive in terms of personnel.
01:07Nacho has retired, but no problem. Get a young Pauka Barsi in there or Dean Halson. Lost a few
01:12other experienced heads with Jesus Navas and Roselu? Well, how about two more years worth of
01:17experience for the likes of Pedri, Laminya Mal, Nico Williams? And what about keeping the actual
01:22spine of the team solid? Well, Rodri is still in his prime. Martin Zubimendi looks to have hit new
01:27heights since joining Arsenal and having to choose between Unai Simon and David Raya for the number
01:32one jersey is a good headache to have. Bain are currently number two in the FIFA World rankings
01:37and under Luis de la Fuente, they have all the tools to pull off this modern tiki-taka style.
01:41A system that keeps the soul of its predecessor with the aim of possession, but adds the lightning
01:46speed of Laminya Mal and Nico Williams on the wings to change a game within seconds. With Rodri
01:51controlling the tempo from the base of the midfield and Pedri threading needles in the final third,
01:56it feels like a winning strategy for knockout football. However, Spain's biggest enemy may
02:01be their own lack of tactical flexibility in the final third. They have the quality to beat most
02:06teams for sure, but in a World Cup with so many styles, some sides could throw up a bit of
02:10a
02:10tactical surprise and who knows, maybe the dribbling and movement of Jamal Williams or Atabal isn't working.
02:16So with Morata completely out of form this season and no other top-level centre-forward,
02:21how do they approach these problems from a different angle? It's a complete hypothetical,
02:25of course, at the minute, but I'm sure we've all watched enough football to recall any number of
02:30games where a well-organised underdog has survived the passing carousel, defended for their lives where
02:35need be, and snatched a 1-0 win on the counter against a blunt opponent void of attacking ideas.
02:41Still, I guess if you can't touch the ball, you can't score. And with Spain being the most technically
02:46complete team in the world right now, if Jamal finds his rhythm and Rodri stays fit,
02:50they are the team most likely to control their own destiny all the way to the final.
02:54And if they do, I'm like 99% sure they'll have to come across the next favourite at some point.
03:04And that is who we have next up, the strength in numbers choice. So-called,
03:09because looking at the long list of talented names who won't even be in the squad, you'll just see how
03:14ridiculously good the pool of talent is for France. Most countries pray for one golden generation every
03:1950, 60, 70 years. This was like their third one in a row. Didier Deschamps is the epitome of been
03:25there, done that on the international stage, and now he's looking to take France to a third straight
03:29World Cup final. I mean, the entire squad reads like a FIFA Ultimate team from someone who has way
03:35too many coins. Kylian Mbappe, injury dependent, sure, but at the peak of his powers, flanked by the
03:40creativity, dribbling and sheer output of Ballon d'Or winning Ousmane Dembele and the outstanding
03:44Michael Olisse. There's a midfield stacked with options like Choumenes, Zaya Emery, Kante and
03:49a bit more flair with Ryan Cherky, and a defensive spine anchored by the brilliant centre-backs like
03:54Saliba, Konate, Upamecano. They are the masters of tournament football, comfortable without the ball,
04:00lethal with it, and physically more imposing than anyone else in the draw. But for all their talent,
04:05there always seems to be this accusation heard at the French of diva culture, always being near a
04:10full squad implosion. I personally don't see it with this squad, but given how many times it's
04:15happened over the past few decades, it always feels like there's a chance, especially when
04:19Deschamps is having to field questions over Mbappe's attitude, work rate and tactical flexibility,
04:24which isn't ideal after he's just named the Real Madrid forward as captain. If I were pressed to
04:29pick a weak spot in the team, I'd say the full-backs aren't quite at the same level as the
04:33rest,
04:33but when you've got that much attacking talent, how much defending are you really going to be doing
04:37anyways? A part of me thinks Hugo Ekotique will actually be a big miss for the squad on the whole
04:41as well, but with so much individual brilliance, you've got to back them to come up with a solution
04:46to whichever question is posed throughout the tournament. Well, all except the one question
04:50that most defenders have failed to answer for the past 20 years.
04:57And that is how to stop Lionel Messi. Admit it, we all thought 2022 was the end of the story,
05:04right? Lift a famous trophy in Qatar and complete football, but clearly he isn't done yet and he's
05:09bringing yet another band of Argentinian bodyguards with him for one last ride. Whatever you actually
05:15think of Messi's current level, which isn't as high as it was, Argentina are the defending champion,
05:20the Copa America holder, and it'd be pretty impossible not to have them down as a favourite,
05:25for largely the same reasons as last time. Messi, now 38 and turning 39 during the knockout rounds,
05:31will continue in his playmaker role that doesn't put a huge physical burden on him,
05:35because he has the midfielder of Avento Fernandes, Alexis McAllister, amongst others,
05:39winning to do the running for him. But don't go drawing comparisons here to what I just mentioned
05:43about Mbappe's lack of running. These situations and players could not be more different. But aside from
05:48that, I do think there is space for other players to shine as well in the squad. It's not just
05:53all
05:53do the dirty work and give the ball to Messi. Atletico duo Giuliano Simeone and Julian Alvarez
05:58are having great seasons, Nico Paz's club future will no doubt provide the backdrop to any discussion
06:03on him this summer after a brilliant year at Como, and say what you like about Emi Martinez's club form,
06:08he is the man for the big occasions between the sticks. The question is though, will this also be
06:14their undoing? The focus and the reliance on Messi in key moments when the others can't provide?
06:19Can a 39 year old body survive 7 or 8 games in 30 days against the world's elite? And what
06:25if the
06:25team Scaloni is built to be mentally unbreakable can't get over their first tournament in the
06:29post-Ancalde Maria era? After all, he was the guy who scored in nearly every major final for them.
06:35I mean, without his big game energy, the pressure on Messi to produce a moment of genius is arguably even
06:40higher. Although due to having already won the World Cup, the pressure looms even greater on the
06:45other half of the GOAT debate. But before we get to that though, a quick one for me to tell
06:49you all
06:50about our latest offer here at 442, where right now we've got up to 50% off all our magazine
06:55subscription plans. Whether you're signing up for a short-term six-month deal or plans to be going
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07:05straight to your door every month. And if that wasn't enough, by signing up now, you'll get our
07:10current issue, the first World Cup issue, completely free. It comes with the World Cup wall chart and
07:15supplement as well. So the link's in the description if you want to get on it. But for now, let's
07:19get
07:20back to the video. Right then, as always, talking about Lino Messi inevitably leads to talking about
07:28Cristiano Ronaldo. But to be honest, I don't think they play the same role in their respective
07:32team's DNA, and Portugal's chances at the World Cup don't rest entirely on his shoulders, because
07:38the team is so outrageously good in its own right. In defence, Nuno Mendes is one of the best examples
07:44of a modern full-back, whilst Gonzalo Inezio and Antonio Silva are more than capable of playing
07:49alongside each other if Ruben Diaz isn't fit. In the attacking third, the likes of Francisco Concesal,
07:55Rafa Liao, Pedro Neto, Bernardo Silva, João Felix all provide different solutions for every tactical
08:00problem. And then we come on to the midfield, which in every way imaginable is the best midfield
08:06of the World Cup. Vitinha and João Neves provide an excellent engine room, and the creative genius
08:11of Bruno Fernandes makes him, well, it makes him the main man in this team. I can see Roberto Martinez
08:16making quite a few big decisions in the World Cup. There is, though, the biggest question of them all
08:21for him to figure out. And that is, which role does Cristiano Ronaldo play? At 41, he is still the
08:27captain,
08:27and still the focus of every camera. But the tension in Portuguese football rises when he plays,
08:33because the team become more rigid and cross-heavy. Basically, trying to directly utilise his ability
08:38to put the ball in the back of the net. Now, it's not a bad plan, considering he's almost at
08:421,000
08:42career goals. However, when he doesn't play, they look like a fluid, modern machine. Martinez has to
08:48manage the biggest ego in sports history, whilst trying to satisfy a fanbase that knows this squad is
08:53too good to be held back by nostalgia. If they start Ronaldo and go out early, the fallout will be
08:58historic. On the flip side, though, if Portugal find the right balance of bottling up Ronaldo's clutch
09:03goal-scoring ability and unleashing it at the right moment, counteracted by the team delivering for the
09:07majority of matches without the pressure of constantly playing into CR7's strengths, they could be the most
09:13dangerous team in the tournament. I actually put Portugal in the same category as France, in that they have the
09:18depth to handle the intense schedule and the individual quality to win games, even when they
09:22aren't at their best. We have to discuss the dark horse that is Germany. Now, even calling a historic
09:32football nation such as Germany a dark horse sounds so wrong in my mind, never mind coming out of my
09:36mouth. But their last four tournaments have been pretty shambolic. They didn't even get out the group
09:41stage of the past two World Cups, knownly marginally better than the Euros, with a round of 16 and
09:46quarterfinal exit in the last two editions, so you can see where I'm coming from in terms of recent
09:50record. However, never ever count the Germans out, especially when die Mannschaft possess two of the
09:56finest young players that will be at the World Cup. I didn't coin this term, by the way, but the
10:00team is
10:01built entirely around Wirtziala. That's right, the partnership of Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala.
10:06These two are capable of absolutely anything on their day, turning a boring midfield battle into a
10:11goal-scoring chance and two touches, dancing through the opposition whilst approaching the edge of the
10:16box and causing absolute chaos in it. They're supported by the experienced leadership in the
10:21form of Joshua Kirich and revitalised Antonio Rudiger. There's prime entering talent with the
10:26likes of Havertz, Schlotterbeck, Stille, Tarr. And to top it all off, the young guns have got an equally
10:31exciting, even younger brother, so to speak, in Leonard Karl. At just 18 years old, the Bayern
10:36sensation has taken to the top level like a duck to water, and he provides the sort of unknown
10:41quantity at international level that could make him a real game-changer.
10:45The issue for Nogsman's side, however, comes in a similar shape to that of Spain's issues I
10:50mentioned earlier on, where a complete lack of a plan B or top-level striker could come back to
10:55haunt them. The most recent squad in March saw the two striking options as Dennis Rundav and Nick
11:00Voltemada. The former having a very good season with Stuttgart, and Voltemada actually doing okay,
11:06in my opinion, considering he's in a new league with a big price tag. However, they have a combined total
11:11of
11:11just eight goals in 17 international appearances. And that's the extent of their attacking option.
11:16I mean, we've been talking about Ronaldo, Mbappe, Messi, Kane we'll come onto in a minute. I'm not
11:21sure there's going to be enough goal-scoring input to see them go deep into the tournament.
11:24The problem with German style of play currently is that they have enough against weaker opposition,
11:28like we saw in World Cup qualifying, but against the teams that can really hurt them at the back,
11:33it's going to be a different ballgame. They lost both Nations League games last summer
11:37to Portugal and France, who are exactly the type of opposition they'll run into
11:41come the latter stages. It's tournament football, so anything can happen, sure,
11:46but putting all of this together, I think they have to remain as dark horses on this one.
11:54Finally then, we come to the unknown quantity, England. On paper, with the big names, extraordinary
12:00price tags and level of experience, you'd think that Tuchel's three lines would be in with a shout,
12:05but football ain't played on paper. For 60 years, England have been the nearly men,
12:09so what's different this time? Well, I can only really look at the manager,
12:14because if you can't beat the Germans, join them. Or get them to join you. You know what I mean.
12:19The Thomas Tuchel era has fundamentally changed the vibe around St George's Park.
12:22Gone is the Southgate level of pragmatic cautiousness, and in is the ruthless cup specialist
12:27edge that Tuchel brings. I don't think you can take too much from the qualifiers given the level
12:32opposition. However, with a 100% win record and without having conceded a goal, there's reason
12:37to be optimistic. Further reason also lies in England having the hottest striker in world football
12:42at the minute, in Harry Kane. Not only is England's record goal scorer scoring more goals than
12:48previously thought possible whilst at Spurs, probably due to the fact he's playing alongside
12:51better players, but he's also picking up the trophies to match. Having him spearhead England's
12:56attack is a surefire way to give them the best opportunity of finding the back of the net,
13:00and the supporting Carson attack isn't bad either. Jude Bellingham has proved his clutch ability in
13:05the Euros. Bukayo Saka remains one of the best ringers in the world despite a poor season individually.
13:10Marcus Rashford still has moments of magic left in him, but, and here's where my England
13:14assessment takes a turn for the worse, I think the further you go back towards their own goal,
13:19the level drops off. Declan Rice is exempt from this. He's pretty much always a guaranteed 7 out of
13:2310 in every game. However, if an almost 36-year-old Jordan Henderson is the best backup England can
13:29muster, there are bigger issues. No shade on his wonderful career, great player, I just think at
13:34this stage there needs to be better cover for Rice and Anderson. As for the defence, this is where the
13:39squad really could come unstuck. If I look at the list of recent names, White, Tamori, Stones, Maguire,
13:45Spence, Hall, Liveramento, Konza, Gaye, Burno, Riley, I don't think any of them combine brilliant
13:50form, tournament experience and top level quality. Some have one or two of those traits, but not all three.
13:56Maybe it's me being a bit too nostalgic here, but when we have the likes of Terry,
14:00Fernand, Ashley, Cole, you'd turn up to a tournament with some of the most elite defenders
14:05of their day, whereas nowadays, the best defenders belong to other nations.
14:09Moreover, the English media pressure is at an all-time high too, because, well, when isn't it?
14:14And Tuchel is the first foreign manager in years, so if they don't dominate the group,
14:18they'll be a fairly short leash on him. But I guess if people didn't like Southgate,
14:22they should be getting behind Tuchel, because this is the complete opposite. He's a manager who
14:26knows how to win knockout football matches and has the arrogance to match the squad's talent.
14:30All in all, I don't think England should be considered as favourites in the upper echelons
14:34of international football. But hey, there's always hope, right?
14:37Bye.
14:37Bye.
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