- 2 days ago
After nine years at Manchester City, Bernardo Silva is leaving the club. But how do they replace him? How do you replace the teams 'engine' and 'steering wheel' at the same time? Today we're looking at the Bernardo Silva shaped hole appearing in Pep’s set up, identifying a potential successor who’s already in the squad, and looking at the big money signings that could be made from the Bundesliga and beyond!
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00:00Look at these stats from Bernardo Silva's performance versus Arsenal.
00:0376 touches, 16 passes in the final third, 5 duels won, 4 possessions won, plus plenty more.
00:10No wonder Pep Guardiola once called him irreplaceable.
00:13Well, the bad news for him and City is that now they must try to replace him.
00:17Because after 9 years at the Etihad, the little magician is leaving.
00:21But how do they even attempt to do that?
00:23How do you replace the team's engine and steering wheel at the same time?
00:26Well, today we're deconstructing the Bernardo Silva-shaped hole appearing in Pep's setup,
00:32identifying a potential successor who's already in the squad,
00:36and looking at the big money signings that could be made from the Bundesliga and beyond.
00:41I'm Matt Froelich from 442, and this is how Manchester City could replace Bernardo Silva.
00:50Now, to understand what Manchester City are losing,
00:53we have to look at Bernardo Silva's individual profile first.
00:55More often than not, an attacking midfielder will be judged on basic statistics like goals, assists,
01:01and whilst he chips in with an important few,
01:03in those categories he'll never rival someone like Mo Salah, Bukayo Saka, Bruno Fernandes.
01:08But there's so many facets to his game that can't always be quantified.
01:11He's not there to put up numbers.
01:13He's there to enable a complex footballing system to work,
01:16with arguably the widest set of tools of any modern Premier League player.
01:20We'll start with two of his greatest powers, his passing and his dribbling.
01:25Over nine years in the Premier League, 300 appearances, his pass completion rate is a ridiculous 89%.
01:31Rodri is only just ahead at 91%, but his passes are in deeper, safer areas,
01:37and he does a hell of a lot less dribbling than Silva, both in quantity and distance.
01:41This season, actually, Bernardo Silva has hit a personal record high of 49.7 passes per 90,
01:46with a second highest completion rate of 90.3%.
01:49As for his dribbling, he's in the 97th percentile for progressive carries across Europe this season,
01:54but incredibly, only loses possession 12% at the time.
01:58And this is because he's dribbling in all areas to escape trouble or to manage the tempo of the game,
02:04something key to Guardiola's tactics that we'll come on to shortly.
02:07If you compare that with Jeremy Doku, who also has a very high number of progressive carries,
02:11he loses possession 22% of the time, because most of his dribbles are attempting to take on defenders
02:17in dangerous areas of the pitch.
02:19Both of them dribble, but for very different reasons.
02:23So, passing and dribbling aside, next up we have an immensely important trait for any attacker or midfielder
02:28in any side that wants to dominate all over the pitch,
02:31and that is what happens when they're out of possession.
02:34Most players have more of a positional memory, let's call it.
02:38When the ball is lost, they'll go back to their initial position,
02:40because it allows the team to eventually settle into their defensive formation in relation to one another.
02:46For example, Rodri is the pivot that balances out the defensive structure.
02:50As his teammate, once you know where he is, you know approximately where you should be.
02:54But Bernardo Silva has a spatial intuition.
02:57He's incredibly aware of where he is on the pitch, where his teammates are,
03:00and what the chances of a successful counter-press will be.
03:03He is therefore often trusted as the one who drives the press and recovers the ball.
03:08It'll be no surprise then to hear that he once broke the Premier League record
03:11for distance covered in a single game, with 13.7km versus Liverpool in 2019.
03:18So, he isn't just running like a headless chicken, he's running with purpose.
03:22If you mix all of that together with his 95 goal contributions to City,
03:27you get a player profile that sees him relied upon to provide all sorts of contributions
03:31in some of the biggest games.
03:33I mentioned the Arsenal game earlier, but there's also his double in arguably City's greatest ever victory
03:38when they beat Real Madrid 4-0 in the season they won the Champions League.
03:42And actually, earlier this season, with City's crucial 2-1 winner Anfield,
03:46no player ran more than Silva's 13km.
03:49No player made more passes in the final third than his 24,
03:52nor did any City player attempt more dribbles than his four.
03:56So, what City are losing then is a player who defines them in this pep era,
04:00with his skill, work rate, leadership and so much more.
04:03You can't replace that culture with £100 million,
04:07but I'd feel pretty confident in saying they'll at least try.
04:10So, what exactly should they be aiming for in a replacement?
04:16Well, if we look at City's tactical evolution,
04:19they have moved away from the chaos of the early years into a system of total control,
04:24a concept defined by what the Spanish call la pausa.
04:27It's a concept or ability to come to a near stop with the ball,
04:31remain composed, invite a defender to press you
04:33and then make the right decision in moving the ball on.
04:36This skill is so important to have because it can be used anywhere on the pitch.
04:40It's not just an attacking or defensive thing.
04:43And Bernardo Silva is bloody brilliant at it.
04:46Players like Foden and Cherki want to go forward immediately.
04:49Rodri will keep it safe and metronomic,
04:51but Bernardo uses la pausa like a pressure valve.
04:54Sometimes the pause is minimal.
04:56The ball is moved on swiftly, maybe in attack.
04:59And other times, he'll keep it for four or five seconds,
05:02wiggling away from two players and resetting the play.
05:05Without that valve, City will face more losses in possession
05:08and consequently, more counterattacks.
05:10Then we come to the versatility of Silva,
05:13an often underrated skill that makes him a dream for any manager.
05:16We've seen him play as a touchline winger to pin back elite fullbacks,
05:20a false nine to pull centre-backs out of position,
05:22and in recent years, as a deep-liking playmaker next to Rodri,
05:27utilising those passing and ball retention skills to maximum effect.
05:31It's the number eight role that David Silva perfected,
05:34but with the defensive tenacity that Silva never quite had to employ.
05:38Oh, and let's also not forget Pep's slide trick of using him
05:41as a right-wing-slash-midfield hybrid,
05:43where he starts Bernardo on the right,
05:45but as soon as City have the ball,
05:46he moves inside to create a box midfield
05:48and a four-versus-three advantage in the centre of the pitch.
05:51To replace him, Pep needs a player who is comfortable being isolated
05:55one-versus-one on the wing,
05:56but intelligent enough to understand when to tuck inside
05:58and become a third central midfielder.
06:01If you buy a traditional winger like Jeremy Docku or Savino,
06:04you may lose the extra man in midfield.
06:06If you play a central midfielder there,
06:08you lose the width and the abilities to stretch the opponent.
06:11This is the Bernardo Silva paradox,
06:14where actually, replacing him might not be about finding someone with his skill,
06:18but rather with his brain.
06:20If this read like a LinkedIn job description,
06:22it would read something like,
06:23must be a dynamic, cross-departmental, selfless, tactically disciplined team player
06:28who can maintain 90% pass accuracy whilst under extreme pressure,
06:32be willing to track back 60 yards to cover for an overlapping fullback,
06:35and provide it consistently on the big occasions.
06:38Not too much to ask then,
06:39although I guess the salary is pretty good.
06:41Anyway, with a job advert out there,
06:43who exactly is on the shortlist?
06:45Before we get to that though,
06:47I do have to tell you about our latest offer here at 442,
06:49where right now,
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07:12so the link's in the description if you want to get onto it.
07:14But for now,
07:14let's get back to the video.
07:16Bernardo Silva!
07:19Right then,
07:20on to the potential replacements,
07:22and let's start with the internal choices,
07:24where Phil Foden is firstly the most obvious candidate to take the minutes.
07:27He has the tactical understanding from working with Pep for years,
07:31possesses excellent ball control,
07:32agility,
07:33awareness,
07:33and definitely brings more attacking flair.
07:36But the Bernardo role requires a defensive ceiling Foden hasn't consistently shown.
07:42That then brings us to Rico Lewis.
07:44He's perhaps the only player in the squad who shares Bernardo's IQ.
07:48He understands the need for patience and control in midfield,
07:51and demonstrates a far better defensive output than Foden.
07:54But then,
07:54he also lacks the attacking threat that Silva provides.
07:57The thing is,
07:58when replacing someone Pep called irreplaceable,
08:01you're probably going to have to sacrifice something.
08:03No player has it all,
08:04and the same rings true for those names flying around the rumor mill.
08:08For example,
08:09if Pep wants to replace Silva's ball carrying,
08:11he needs to look at a dribbling machine like Jamal Musiala.
08:14The German averages 3.8 successful take-ons per game,
08:18nearly double the number Silva does.
08:19However,
08:20on the passing side of things,
08:22Musiala's accuracy in the final third often drops to 82%,
08:24with Bernardo Silva around the 90% mark.
08:28Of course,
08:28Musiala is also one of the best players in the world,
08:30meaning he'll cost an absolute fortune.
08:33On the flip side though,
08:34if City want a pure data-driven replacement
08:36that may miss other parts of Silva's overall profile,
08:40then according to Opta,
08:42the most comparable player across all of Europe's top five leagues
08:45is PSG's Warren Zaire Emery.
08:48At just 20,
08:49he has the engine of a marathon runner.
08:51He's third for distance running the entire Champions League this season,
08:54and his heat map over the course of this season is a joke.
08:57Just look at this,
08:57he's absolutely everywhere.
09:00Along with that,
09:00he has 94% pass completion,
09:03more tackles than anyone in the PSG squad,
09:05and the second highest distance dribble too,
09:07but not exactly the flair or attacking ability
09:10that the other options have.
09:12So this then leaves us looking for someone in the middle,
09:16whose profile and stats mirror Bernardo Silva
09:18in the most balanced way possible,
09:20meaning he doesn't go too deep into being one or the other.
09:23And the name currently surfacing across blogs and websites aplenty
09:27is Ibrahim Matza.
09:29The 20-year-old Bayer Leverkusen sensation
09:31is the closest thing scouts have seen to a young Bernardo Silva.
09:34This season,
09:35he's got 11 goal contributions in 38 games,
09:38playing as a central midfielder or attacking midfielder
09:40with the odd forward and wide forward appearance thrown in there too.
09:45That means we have the versatility ticked off the list.
09:48Both he and Silva average 4.2 progressive carries per match,
09:51putting them in the ridiculous 96th percentile across Europe,
09:55but where Matza really makes himself stand out
09:58is with his key passes.
10:00Bernardo Silva clearly stands out for forward passes,
10:02but that could be anywhere on the pitch,
10:03as long as it's forward.
10:04Whereas Matza's key passes,
10:06passes that result in a teammate shooting,
10:08whether he scores or not,
10:09places him in the 97th percentile.
10:12Oh, and on top of all of that,
10:14he wins a significantly higher percentage of his duels.
10:16He's almost the physical evolution of Silva.
10:19Not just a recycler, nor a presser,
10:21but also an attacker,
10:23a forward thinker in so many ways,
10:25regardless of where he is on the pitch.
10:27And if all of those names sound too risky,
10:29whether it's a mixture of cost,
10:30age, lack of Premier League experience,
10:32or something else,
10:33why not go for Elliot Anderson,
10:35a versatile 6-8 hybrid that can shore up the midfield.
10:39He has more successful passes
10:40than any other midfielder in the league this season,
10:43and what was a bizarre stat to discover
10:45is the only outfielder in the top 18 players
10:47for ball recoveries.
10:49The other 17 are all goalkeepers.
10:51They're always picking up the ball or recovering it.
10:53Of course, it won't be cheap
10:54coming from another Premier League side,
10:56but given how well the signings of Gaye and Semenyo have done,
10:59I can't see the club thinking twice
11:01if there's a good deal to be had.
11:02The reality then,
11:04well, Man City can't directly replace Bernardo Silva,
11:06but in Pep Guardiola,
11:07they've got a manager capable of covering up
11:09their losses in tactical tweaks
11:11and the development of squad strengths elsewhere.
11:14When we talk about City legends,
11:16we talk about the big three, right?
11:18Kompany, Aguero, David Silva.
11:20They have the trophies and the era-defining moments,
11:23but so does Bernardo.
11:25In my book, he's not just a legend,
11:26but he's the most City player of the Pep era.
11:29He represents the grit behind the success.
11:32Whilst David Silva started the Pep revolution,
11:35you could argue that Bernardo shaped it
11:37and then finished it.
11:38He gave his peak years to the club
11:39and he did it without ever demanding the spotlight.
11:42If David Silva was the architect of the Etihad,
11:45Bernardo Silva is the builder.
11:47For loads more content from 442,
11:49make sure you smash that subscribe button.
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