- 7 hours ago
With global uncertainty rising and markets staying volatile, investors are rethinking how they build their portfolios. Gold and silver, once seen as optional, are now being viewed as essential tools for stability and long-term balance, says expert.
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00:00good afternoon and welcome to the business today show this is where we get you all the market
00:19closing action first up let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate and the financial
00:23world it's been an incredible day for silver the white metal breaches the two and a half lakh
00:31rupee level on global cues and then plunges 21,000 rupees in under an hour as trade book profits also
00:39there's action in other metals as well with copper hitting lifetime highs Bitcoin also has joined the
00:45surge crossing 90,000 dollars after two week gap of traders betting on a new year rebound lackluster
00:55trade in stock markets as foreign investors remain on a holiday indices now give up early gains with
01:00the nifty now slipping the psychologically important 26,000 mark it and energy stocks lead the losses
01:07rupees now don't down more than 10 pesa with dealers indicating that banks are selling dollars to
01:13support the Indian currency government is reportedly seeking over 30 billion dollars in compensation
01:21from reliance industries and BP for under production off from the KG basin Reuters Reh says three-member
01:29tribunal hearing the dispute since 2016 is unlikely to deliver its verdict next year the claim is the
01:36largest ever by the government against a corporation
01:43in a massive boost to the defense sector the defense acquisition council has approved proposals
01:47worth 80,000 crore rupees a meeting headed by defense minister green lights overhaul of t-90 tanks mi-17
01:54helicopters purchase of loitering munitions as well as surface-to-air missiles and much more defense
02:00sector stocks rally after the massive order
02:02partial relief for Indian exporters with the free trade deal with Australia coming into effect from the
02:121st of January Australia will be exempting all Indian exports from duty commerce minister says the move
02:19will give deeper market access stronger supply chain resilience and benefit Indian MSMEs farmers and workers
02:26straight away on to the markets right now when most of the sectors have actually come under some pressure barring just the FMCG and media stocks rest all of the sectors are down in trade led by losses in IT real estate and autos even small caps and mid caps have now come under severe pressure on the nifty when you see there are just about 10 to 15 odd stocks that are holding themselves up into the green rest of them have also come under severe pressure on the nifty when you see there are just about 10 to 15 odd stocks that are holding themselves up into the green rest of them have all the
02:56also slipped in the red what's holding up definitely some of the metal counters like Tata Steel you can also see Tata consumer products Asian Pains Grassim Nestle NTPC as among those gainers but when we look at the top laggards at this point in time well you do have names that are dragging like HDFC Bank on the lower end you also have a lot of other names within the banking space the auto space as well as the IT pack that are dragging in trade you have Adani Ports
03:26now let me quickly go across to Sharmila Joshi market expert joining in on the program with us hi Sharmila warm welcome to you good to have you with us as always well what should we start off with with the missing cheer in the stock markets or the brilliant relapse in the silver prices which has caught the imaginations of everyone around of course we did see a sharp profit taking of 21,000 rupees but two and a half lakh rupees just before the 2025 year end what are you watching
03:52Absolutely I think metals is where the focus is and you know we've been hearing off late that whether you can attribute it to the fact that the rupees weakening or the fact that we really haven't seen the participation from FIs like we have seen in the past you know this entire past year
04:14or the fact that you know geopolitical situations are such that metals are really warranting a lot of attention over the last couple of years and back in the day honestly I would have not really recommended anybody to have a silver or gold ETF but you know that has changed over the last couple of years where I'm really you know people have asked me that what's the kind of portfolio you should start with I have always advised that definitely include a gold ETF definitely include a silver ETF
04:42because you know because you know the signs were there nobody expected this kind of a blowout we did see it during Diwali so you didn't really expect to see silver hitting this kind of an high but the signs have been there for a couple of years that metals are going to sort of play a very significant role and one hopes it is time for equities to catch up very honestly
05:05that unfortunately it's taking its time but how would you look at silver it hits that two and a half lakh mark and then a 21,000 rupee profit taking that came in could it be the peak or could it be just a blip and giving you that opportunity to maybe enter with the ongoing run-up
05:24It's you know I think too early to say whether it's a peak or anything like that because as I said you know the situation on the ground has changed so much over the last couple of years
05:34that people are finding sort of greater comfort in being invested in a commodity like a gold or a silver so as I said you know for me ETF has been the easiest sort of an answer and do an SIP if you can
05:48uh because that always sort of protects you uh but that you know the bottom line is that you can't now have a portfolio
05:54uh if you have you know uh you know a lot of people like me who've been invested in equities for the longest time
06:00but if you are starting new I think that you can't have a portfolio where you don't have an exposure
06:05to either gold or silver that's a massive change um everybody who used to think probably a flexi cap or a
06:12balance advantage fund an index fund or maybe uh you know a mid cap or a small cap fund would suffice for
06:19your five uh funds in your mutual fund portfolio there you go uh analysts are now asking everybody
06:24to look at having a gold and a silver ETF or a mutual fund way of investing in it and have that balance
06:31going on as well um you know when we talk about these metals of course the precious metal started it all
06:36the rally is now uh you know you're trickling lower into the base metals as well look at copper what's
06:42happening there even alumina and a lot of other metals as well and this brings us to understand as to how do I
06:48you know proxy play this entire metal move we've already seen what's happened with hindustan zinc
06:53again how the you know prices have moved up over the last couple of months hindustan copper today
06:58double digit gains right in the morning and you see that you know that's also reflecting kind of a move
07:03there as well how would you explain uh to investors who are looking at this proxy play
07:08so you know very honestly uh that way this is a fairly simple uh sort of a sector to play because
07:14you know this is one which is directly sort of reflects what is happening in the lme uh so you
07:19know it's compared to a lot of other sectors where we may have our uh sort of domestic issues that
07:25override what is happening uh globally here very clearly it is what is happening in the lme that sort
07:31of seems to uh dictate uh what is happening with your prices here so i think uh if you want to be in
07:36metals that's the piece that you need to track and what are the sort of bites that you're getting
07:41from there in terms of the outlook whether it's for copper whether it's for zinc whether it's for
07:45aluminium and then take it from there because you know very honestly if you ask me especially where
07:50uh steel is concerned uh the valuations that we are trading at at the moment they seem fairly valued
07:56they don't seem to suggest that there is really too much of a room for an upside but as i said you know
08:01this one sector that is playing off what is happening uh globally more than anything that is
08:06happening domestically and you know typically this is sort of the year end is a time where
08:10uh a lot of global players get into sort of negotiations for the coming year and that also
08:16sort of drives prices at this point in time so we need to keep all that in mind and then play this
08:21sector uh but you know very honestly as i said from a purely from a valuation perspective i don't think
08:27there is too much of a room really left from where prices are today fair point so i hope this has given
08:32you a lot of insight in case you're looking at our metals play as a whole for your investment
08:37portfolios viewers let's now look at the big news that has really come in today with respect to
08:42the largest listed stock back home on the domestic stock exchanges that's reliance industries the
08:47government of india has reportedly slapped a massive 30 billion dollar claim on reliance industries
08:53and bp for alleged under production from their flagship kgd6 gas field according to the news
08:59agency reuters the claim covers what the government calls a shortfall in targeted output over several
09:07years the fields which were the country's first deep water gas project were awarded to reliance
09:13industry in the years of 2000 and were also estimated to have gas reserves of about 10 trillion
09:19cubic feet the government has argued that just 20 percent of the amount was produced reliance had
09:26announced in 2020 that it had ended the production from the fields the hearing has now been on since
09:322016 and reuters says the final arguments by the three-member tribunal were heard on 7th of november
09:39a verdict according to the agency is unlikely up until mid of 2026 and therefore you've seen the stock
09:46of reliance industries also edge a little lower from the morning trading session as well as even now
09:52when we look at reliance industries share it is subdued at this point uh let me quickly so it's at 1544
09:58right now down about a percent uh how would you look at reliance industries in this uh news report
10:04that's come in sharmila a rather unfortunate one must say and uh as you sort of outlined it is a case
10:10that's been going on for 10 years and uh we hear the outcome uh so let's hope uh that uh there is some
10:17clarity in the next couple of months so just two things i'd like to add really one is that in the
10:22past year reliance has been the one stock that has sort of given you positive returns uh if you
10:27were to sort of take a breakup of what has happened in the last year uh of course financials have led
10:32but if you were to look at the conglomerates whether it's a mirla whether it's a bajaj uh reliance
10:37has clearly been you know one group that has given you uh good returns as compared to a lot of the
10:42other big industrial houses uh in the country uh secondly i think that reliance as on date is uh
10:48more than you know the uh businesses that we used to value them for earlier uh of course we've had
10:56uh geofinancial spin-off but they still have a very important retail piece as well as a telecom piece
11:01which hopefully uh you will see sort of get uh listed separately going forward so you know their
11:07strategy of late has been to invest uh new money in businesses uh which are sort of uh more uh sort
11:16of large ways where you need capex where revenues could be large uh new age businesses and you know
11:22things like that so i think it's a very interesting uh time for reliance in that sense but definitely i
11:28think that uh all that even if you are to even put all that aside this piece of news not good news
11:35and we need to wait for the outcome of this fair point uh let's also shift focus to the defense
11:40space that's also garnering a lot of attention right now especially when the government is now
11:44stepping up its defense modernization drive with now the defense acquisition council clear clearing
11:50proposals worth nearly 80 000 crore rupees today sharmila first up help me understand how are you
11:55looking at this entire defense move that has started of course there have been time and again
12:00these are kind of proposals that the dac has taken through this year 2025 and the make in india
12:07proposals that the government constantly focuses on what's your thought as far as the defense talks
12:11are concerned are they here for a sharp run-up even in the new year 2026 you know very similar to
12:17what we were discussing about metals uh you know again our defense as a play uh if you were to if you
12:24had asked me this question 10 years ago i would have said yes these are all very steady sort of
12:29state companies orders are uh you know niche companies uh whether it's an engineers india whether
12:34it's a bml whether it's a bel all these companies you know that the orders that go to them will go to
12:39them and uh they are long gestation orders uh it takes time for it to show in their profit etc
12:46uh but what has really changed in the last couple of years one is of course this whole uh make in india
12:51uh that we've been seeing and the increased orders uh that these companies have been getting
12:55and also the fact that uh the way geopolitics has laid out not just globally but even for us as a
13:02country over the last four or five years has definitely put this uh sector in the spotlight
13:08and we have seen uh that uh whether it's the shipbuilding companies or hindustan aeronautics they
13:14have got an order books which are much larger than what they were earlier and the valuations are also
13:20fancy you know these are not the valuations that one would have been comfortable with
13:25uh but having said that this is not a sector again that you can really ignore going forward
13:30because of the way things have changed so they were always good these companies uh their order books
13:35were always strong uh but now what we have really seen is that the valuations that we look were
13:42comfortable with earlier yeah that band has moved much higher so that's what we need to get
13:47comfortable with before we start these companies absolutely in fact these approvals viewers also
13:53include key upgrades for the army and the air force as well alongside the new systems that are aimed at
13:59enhancing operational reach from refurbishing the t-90 tanks to upgrading mi-70s helicopters and of
14:05course to acquire mr sam missile system as well the focus is on combat readiness and advanced warfare
14:13tools as well this decision also includes uh fresher changes in the rfps the request for proposals for
14:20air-to-air refuelers as well let me go across to my colleague from india today shivani to help us
14:26understand what have been the key decisions that have been taken at the council today and how
14:31important are they for the defense sector shivani see this happens to be the last defense acquisition
14:36council meeting of the year and the kind of approvals that have been given show the focus on
14:42increasing the lethality the firepower of the army navy and the air force and at the same time to
14:48modernize whatever weapon systems we have be it the pidaka systems upgrades be it the spice
14:54systems or the astra mark to missiles for the air force the procurements are going on and a very
15:02important point here we must tell our viewers that the emergency procurement window that had ended
15:07in november uh this year has been extended up to 15th of january that means a lot of scope for emergency
15:15procurements has been opened up the fast tracking of the drones uh acquirement by the forces is going on
15:22and a lot of stress to uh promote the msmes with the help of uh the industry partners because you know
15:29a lot of focus has been there on atmanirbharata and defense and that's what is very evident with
15:35this dac approval too absolutely shivani thanks a lot for getting us all of those details through
15:41the course of the day as well so all eyes on the defense space most of the stocks have reacted
15:45positively to the news flow as well and therefore going forward too it will be important to see
15:50how these companies continue to react as well in fact um you know when we're talking about what are
15:56the themes that you should be tracking when it comes to the upcoming new year one of the missing
16:01factors in 2025 as all of our uh you know viewers as investors must have noticed is the absence
16:07or the near absence of fii's or the global investors when it comes to the indian markets
16:13now gotham shah market master you know of business radio television from goldilocks global research
16:20has in fact made a strong statement he has said that fii's are not returning to india anytime soon
16:25he's also called the ipo market a valuation bubble i spoke with him earlier let's listen in to that
16:31excerpt well if there is a bubble anywhere it's in the ipo market i think it's the greater fool's
16:39theory that seems to be playing out that when you have a greater fool to sell to uh you know that
16:44the trend continues i do believe it's extremely dangerous to be committing capital with the ipo market
16:49barring a very handful of names evaluations are completely out of whack and i think everything
16:55is being justified based on what other companies got in the past which i think is the wrong is the
17:00step in the wrong direction there are so many brilliant companies particularly in the psu space
17:05which are available at a 10 12 15 p e why would i go with with stocks new age stocks where we don't
17:12have visibility of earnings over the next five to ten years so i think ipo market is a ticking time
17:17bomb one should stay away from it and stay with the more typical old school brick and motor companies
17:24where i think there is going to be far more returns in the next couple of years got that now since we
17:29were talking about the fpis and the fii's do you see them return any soon or will we have to wait
17:34longer for them to come back to india well i don't want to say this but then fis are unlikely to return
17:41anytime soon the reason being evaluations are much more comfortable in many other markets around the
17:46world since we now track it and we are a global company and secondly if you if you really look at
17:51the valuations here and the liquidity factor you know every time there is a little bit of decline
17:56in the indian markets it's so difficult to get a sort of an exit i think that's a big problem in mid
18:01caps and small caps and secondly if you look at the world you know it's in a massive bull market
18:05and the kind of opportunities that are developing in asia particularly china which i think is a big
18:11opportunity for the next couple of years i don't think as an institutional investor with a global
18:16pallet i would be very comfortable investing outside but aside of that the indian money that's
18:22coming in through sips of 30 000 crores if our earnings justify that then at least for the next
18:29two to three quarters we are sorted i am not somebody who says that the india story is going
18:33to stay for the next 10 20 50 years but i do believe the next few quarters are sorted
18:37all right and you can watch the full interview on business today's social media handles flashing on
18:43your screens as well viewers let me go across to sharmila once again and try to understand
18:48you know how to approach the entire new year with the ipo space in mind you know 1.75 lakh crore
18:55rupees raised already there's already a projection of about two two and a half lakh crore rupees that
19:00could come in in 2026 by way of ipos you could have mammoth ipos from national stock exchange
19:07reliance geo and therefore investors are probably keeping their ready cash you know with them and
19:13not investing just yet in the secondary markets just to get that early point in the ipo space
19:19as well do you also believe the space is in a bubble there could be a lot more disappointment
19:24rather than winning trades that we may see in the ipo space in new year
19:28so uh yes i think you know uh the point is well taken that we could be in a bubble but you know
19:35there are uh what we really need to understand is that if your market ipo market is sort of good and
19:41buzzing and that is able to attract investments that is always the sign of a healthy market so it
19:47would really worry me far more if uh ipos dried up or they were undersubscribed as compared to what we
19:53today because you know that sort of gives me an indication that uh indian uh investors interest
19:59in uh equity markets is sort of constant and you know all other data points that out whether it is
20:05the uh sip numbers uh the mutual fund data etc etc so we are seeing larger participation from uh from
20:14indians in equity and in ipos uh what you really need to think for yourself and this is what makes
20:21market interest to my mind that if you are applying for an ipo uh gone are the days when you
20:27would get it at 10 rupees when i started investing all ipos were at 10 rupees now that has long gone i
20:33don't know how many people even for those days so if it's an ofs for instance then obviously some
20:38early investors have invested the money and which is why the company has been able to grow
20:42uh to this size so what you really need to think for yourself is that yes this money is giving an exit
20:49to an early investors but is there enough potential in the business to really grow
20:55to any size after i buy shares at this price if the answer is yes go ahead and invest otherwise don't
21:01so it's important for me you know just look at the business whether it makes sense to you at that price
21:06you think that it's a market that's going to grow exponentially the way all uh sort of ipos seem to
21:13promise then go ahead and invest otherwise uh i think uh we've seen how some of the ipos uh you
21:19know post listing uh listing gains get taken off and uh where they sort of trade at three months down
21:25the line and you know honestly even prior to this that has been the case like if you were to look at
21:31ipo data historically very few companies one year down the line give you you know uh are trading close
21:39to uh their ipo prices so you need to be cautious in that space uh some companies do uh sort of recover
21:46from that if they're uh if the valuations warrant the business warrants but yes i think you need to
21:51approach it with caution but as i said i'd be far more worried if people stopped investing in that
21:57absolutely so that's a fair balanced view out there as far as the ipo space is concerned
22:02we don't even need a situation when there are no ipos or under subscription but at the same time we need
22:07to be cautious about overvaluation at the same time uh as well on a frenzy or a euphoria that
22:13you know needs to be checked at the right time as well a minute to go before the market shut shop
22:18sharmila what's your expectation from 2026 on the nifty the kind of returns that you expect there
22:24so it's a lot of ups and buts so uh if let's go with the positives so let's go with the yes so if we
22:32see uh the us india trade deal fall through if you see uh that uh in january companies report uh decent
22:40numbers because you know then you will sort of start uh uh turning your valuations to the next year
22:47valuations etc uh then i think and uh you hear some positive uh sounds uh as to what is happening
22:54with the budget etc uh then i think hopefully uh we'll have a good year fantastic all right viewers
23:01let's quickly look at shutting uh the market down by looking at a wrap there and of course we'll come
23:06back to sharmila for all your questions to be answered by her as well 90 points lower we have
23:12slipped below the 26 000 mark uh 25 951 although we just managed to pull up uh you know at the last
23:19point and you do have about a 0.3 percent of a downtick as far as the nifty is concerned what's
23:24also managed to inch up into the green among the sectors is the psu banks right at the fag end of
23:29the kind of move that we've seen today so it's fmcg psu banks media stocks that have managed to
23:35end with a green but real estate it these are the two big lagging uh sectors today along with
23:42the broader markets mid and small caps that have also given about a half odd percent 2.7 percent
23:47of gains of the losses that we are clocking in there let's look at the top movers on the nifty
23:52you have tata steel tata consumer products asian paints grassim and nestle among the winners
23:57uh again on the downside you have a lot of names like adani ports hcl tech power grid trent even
24:03adani enterprises so adani stocks have in fact fallen today uh look at even bharati airtel and bharat
24:10electronics from the defense back despite the good news that's failed to pull up in the trade
24:14today as well so that's as far as the markets are concerned for your viewers 100 points lower
24:19at 25,942 is what they have settled at let me quickly take a view uh from our viewers as far as
24:26their questions are concerned from sharmila rajita from gwalia writes in and says can i still enter
24:31copper and silver stocks if yes can you please suggest to me which one should i be looking at
24:37something that we started our conversation with today sharmila copper and silver stocks
24:41in zinc in copper you know other stocks uh can one still take an entry the silver i think we've
24:47answered it's a etf approach and definitely i think start a silver etf start a gold etf let me just add
24:53to that and uh you know you're now allowed to uh sort of invest we have some funds which have uh
24:58uh you know one uh one u.s facing fund one china facing fund i think you should add global flavor
25:04also favor flavor also to your portfolio uh for copper and zinc i'd wait a bit both hindu sun zinc
25:10copper both are good stocks but i'd wait a bit before i uh invested okay we'll take praveen's question
25:17next praveen from gujarat says i have one lakh rupees to invest for the next three to four years can
25:22you please suggest to me what are the options in front of me where i can put this money in sharmila
25:26uh so assuming he is an absolute uh first time investor then i think the really the best approach
25:33would be mutual funds uh but if he wants direct stocks then i would say uh restrict yourself to
25:39the large caps uh financials have done well this past year so i think buy a basket which has one
25:44financial stock one it stock one farmer stock and one fmcg stock okay fantastic fantastic so there
25:52you have it uh mutual funds in case you're an absolute fresh one but in case you want to directly
25:56invest in stocks large caps and among these sectors that sharmila has mentioned in you could go for the
26:01large caps in this space and you'll be sorted there uh mahema's question next she's from chennai she says
26:06uh is this the right time to buy defense stocks so i think considering the news flow that we have been
26:11having and discussing on as well um you know the question comes in back you know remember in 2024
26:17this was the biggest theme that retail investors tracked both railbase and defense uh finally we
26:22are seeing some more orders coming in uh right time and what how to select the defense stocks from
26:27this entire gamut of baskets of stocks that we have so i like the shipbuilding companies because
26:34their orders are fairly large so whether it's a maxout or whether it's a garden beach i think
26:39you could choose one of those and probably hl because again i think that what we are seeing is that
26:44aerospace is uh sort of in focus and then i think you know one of uh those uh other uh from the
26:52otherness whether it's a bml bl you know that kind of a stock so i think uh as we said earlier you
26:58know maybe even your sort of try to uh apply a sip sort of a method rather than buy your entire
27:05quantity in one go so whatever money you want to put into defense stock buy three make a basket of
27:11four or five stocks and buy it periodically over the sort of the next year okay lastly i it's not a
27:18question from our viewers but i want to ask you for the benefit of our viewers what is it that
27:22investors must not do in the new year 2026 oh well you know i think one is would be uh what i'm really
27:30sensing uh right now is that we are giving into a lot of sort of pessimism because we have seen that
27:35mid caps have underperformed uh but to my mind uh if you have an a portfolio which is already sort of
27:42uh you have decent number of large cap uh within your portfolio don't ignore the mid cap and the
27:49small caps um because you could very easily do that given the fact that you know we haven't seen
27:54the best of returns from this space but i think don't do that because you know sort of the beta on
27:58your portfolio will come from that space okay so don't ignore mid cap and small caps even though
28:05these pockets have had a rough year especially the small caps with about 23 percent of a negative
28:09return one of the worst returns in the last uh you know about uh since 2018 or or so but uh don't
28:16ignore is what the wise word says thank you so much sharmila for being with us it's always a pleasure
28:21to speak with you and hope you have a fantastic upcoming new year ahead with that viewers uh it's a wrap
28:26on the business today's show and in case you do have any questions about your investments in mutual
28:31funds your sips stocks or gold related queries send them to us on the number that's flashing on your
28:36screens also don't forget to tune in at 9 a.m tomorrow morning with all the opening action
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