- 13 hours ago
The guys preview what the Commanders schedule might look like this season with Joe Ferreira.
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00:00Fired up.
00:00Talk to our friend Joe Ferreira.
00:02Before we get there, though, I've got to tell you,
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00:21All right.
00:22Our friend Joe Ferreira is media executive consultant.
00:25He's worked everywhere, scheduling, football, radio, all of it,
00:30but for many, many years, you were at the NFL,
00:32and you used to crank out the NFL schedule.
00:35Joe, what's up, man?
00:35Thank you for making your annual appearance with us.
00:40Good to be with you guys.
00:41How you doing?
00:42Doing good, man.
00:44So if you can, tell our listeners kind of your back story
00:48working on this stuff and how it all shook out then to what it is now.
00:56It's vastly different now.
00:58When I was doing the schedule, late 90s, did it for eight years.
01:05We used a pegboard, believe it or not, to do the schedule,
01:09move team names around and helmets around.
01:13And it's a trickle-down effect.
01:14You know, once you place a game in Thanksgiving or the opening, you know,
01:18kickoff game, it trickles down and limits the amount of options you have.
01:23Now that the NFL has, you know, computers and AI and a bunch of other stuff,
01:28it makes it a little easier.
01:30Also, JP and you guys remember, you know, back when I was doing the schedule,
01:36there were a lot of teams that shared stadiums and baseball,
01:39you know, Three Rivers and Veterans Stadium and San Diego, Jack Murphy.
01:44And it made it difficult to schedule because you had to schedule around baseball
01:47and potential for baseball teams to get to the postseason.
01:50Doesn't happen as much anymore.
01:51But then they've added the complexity of the international games
01:55and needing to be, you know, off either a week before or a week after.
01:59Plus all of the extra games now with Netflix and more Thanksgiving games,
02:05more Thanksgiving weekend games, more Christmas games.
02:07I think it's become a gargantuan task for the league and they do a great job each year.
02:13Is that the reason why we get the international game
02:17before we start getting the overall regular games coming back?
02:23Well, I think there's two reasons for that.
02:25One, the league doesn't like to start teams on buys before around week four or five.
02:32So that's when it starts.
02:34And they like to tie buys to certain international travel.
02:37For obvious reasons.
02:38That's Australia.
02:40And then they, yeah, and then they want Australia and last year in Mexico
02:46or in Argentina is kind of a one-off because it's such long travel
02:52and they want to have a kickoff effect.
02:53So they've changed that around a little bit.
02:55But they're trying to get it done by week 10, 11, if you can,
02:59because they really want to get into divisional contests
03:02and those big matchups stateside in the end of the season.
03:06All right, so what do we know so far?
03:10What do you think?
03:11I'm curious, like you mentioned, there's so much more national window games now.
03:18There's so many more between the international games.
03:21You've got Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night, all the holidays.
03:26Do we know, is there a minimum, a maximum anymore of how many?
03:31I know it used to be six primetime games, but that doesn't even feel like a right way
03:36of discussing it now.
03:37You know what I mean?
03:40Yeah, I think what you're trying to say is there a national exposure window, if you will,
03:47because an international game is a national exposure, but it's 9.30 in the morning in the East Coast.
03:53So is that really a primetime exposure for the Jaguars and the Texans?
03:57I wouldn't consider that a major exposure for the team, at least for branding purposes.
04:04But being international and the uniqueness of those games makes it pretty interesting.
04:09I think they judge it.
04:11They do have limits still in terms of primetime.
04:13They focus more on Sunday night football, Monday night football, and Thursday night football still,
04:18as it relates to a lot of those primetime exposures.
04:21And then these big games, they don't even count the Cowboys and Lions right on Thanksgiving
04:26as a major exposure, but those are some of the highest rated games of the year.
04:30Why won't they count that, though?
04:34Everybody's at home.
04:36They should count it, B. Mitch, but it's just historical.
04:40You know, they've been hosting those games since the mid-70s.
04:44St. Louis Cardinals actually used to host those games for a few years.
04:48People probably don't remember that.
04:49But it's been kind of traditional, so they don't really count it as a major exposure for those teams.
04:56And sometimes that brings a rift, you know, between some of the owners in the league meetings.
05:01But right now, they all accept the fact that that's where the schedule goes.
05:05I saw Jerry get over on that.
05:09Before we get to whatever, you know, nuggets or ideas you have,
05:15I'm curious, especially because this thing has kind of gotten political now.
05:20As the NFL and all sports leagues, it's not just the NFL,
05:23but as streaming has become more and more of a part of our sports viewing experience,
05:31where do you see that go?
05:32I mean, just somebody with your kind of resume that has been in these boardrooms
05:36and understands both how the league does it and how media does it.
05:40Where do you think this goes between broadcast and streaming for the NFL over the next,
05:45I don't know, five, ten years?
05:49My take is the NFL and other leagues are trying to do two things.
05:54One, negotiation 101 with broadcasting rights is you want more bidders than you have packages.
06:02That allows you to drive the price up and drive value for your property.
06:07Number two, and what the leagues would say is most important,
06:09is reaching the fans where they are.
06:11Obviously, there's millions and millions of subscribers to Netflix.
06:15There's millions of people who are on YouTube, subscribers to Amazon Prime.
06:19If you want free shipping for the full year, you're certainly going to be subscribed to that.
06:24So, you know, you've got fans in those places where you get the pushback from the fans is,
06:31do I really need to subscribe to six different services just to watch the NFL?
06:36And that's where it makes it a little difficult.
06:38So, it's a balancing act, I think, with the league.
06:41I think they're doing a good job, to be honest with you,
06:44in terms of where they're going with some of these Netflix games and special games,
06:48two games, back-to-back doubleheader on Christmas.
06:52The Black Friday game with Amazon, some of these early-season games.
06:56You had the YouTube game last year.
06:58You have Peacock, where NBC picked up two games from when ESPN bought the NFL Network.
07:07The NFL Network had these games, and then they got sold back to Fox and NBC.
07:12And now NBC is going to have an extra Saturday doubleheader,
07:16the first game being on NBC and the second game being on Peacock on Week 17.
07:21So, you're adding even more windows at the end of the year.
07:24And I think they're on the right track.
07:26I think there's just a balancing act of you've got to be too careful not to splinter it too much.
07:31One point on that, JP, is think about Thanksgiving.
07:34You know, it used to be you have two games on Thursday,
07:38and then you had your normal Sunday afternoon games and Sunday night and Monday night football.
07:43The Fox and CBS on Sunday used to kind of complain that their Sunday slate was watered down.
07:50Now, you have a Wednesday before Thanksgiving game.
07:55You have three games on Thanksgiving.
07:56You have a Black Friday game.
07:58You have a Sunday night game.
07:59And you have a Monday night game.
08:01That Sunday afternoon is going to be very shallow for both Fox and CBS.
08:05But they're also getting two big games on Thanksgiving.
08:07So, again, it's this juggling act that the NFL has to do.
08:11Do they ever worry about, like, you know,
08:13there are a lot of people that don't have all those extra little channels and streaming services
08:17that you're going to be blocking a lot of people out?
08:21Yeah, I think there's a worry there, particularly from, you know,
08:26maybe an older demographic, if you will, who's a big part of the fan base.
08:32You know, the other funny factor is a lot of bars, sports bars, have a DirecTV package.
08:38They don't always get Amazon or Netflix.
08:40They can't get the games.
08:42And you go to the bar and they're like, where's the Packers game?
08:46And they're like, well, we don't have that service.
08:47And so it creates a bit of a tug of war.
08:51They've worked out some deals with DirecTV and others to get those games into bars.
08:55But that's also a factor because that's where a lot of people would go to watch games
08:59if they couldn't get it at home.
09:00Yep.
09:01That's really interesting.
09:02All right, Joe.
09:03Talking with our friend Joe Ferreira.
09:05We all used to work together back in the NBC Sports Washington days.
09:08Joe has worked all over the country, including at the NFL, for a number of years, doing scheduling.
09:14If you don't follow, it's at Joe NFL.
09:18And what – I don't know when you start doing it.
09:20I want to say it's like once we get to December.
09:22But Joe will provide the most in-depth NFL tiebreaker scenarios for playoffs and seeding and all that.
09:31I always love the first couple – first couple of playoff seeding tweets I see from Joe.
09:36I always get all excited knowing that playoff football is coming on.
09:40Yeah, dude.
09:41Yeah, yeah.
09:42But let's get to kind of – it can be big picture thoughts on this schedule.
09:46It can be specific to the commanders, kind of whatever you think.
09:51All right.
09:52Well, we got some things already dribbling out, right, that are becoming official.
09:57First, we know the Seahawks are going to host what now is Wednesday night kickoff.
10:01It used to be Thursday.
10:03I think it's going to be the Chicago Bears.
10:06It's really down to two teams for Seattle to host that game.
10:11For a lot of different reasons, the upswing of Caleb, how the Bears played last year, it just feels like
10:18a good kickoff matchup to me, the Bears at Seahawks.
10:22So that's – I'm going to roll the dice and say that's going to be the opening game.
10:25We got the 49ers and the Rams playing the next night in Australia.
10:30And that's on Netflix.
10:32You got the Cowboys and Giants already playing Sunday night football at New York.
10:36And they just announced earlier today that the Chiefs and Broncos are going to play the first Monday night game.
10:41We don't know where yet.
10:42But my guess is KC, just based on if Mahomes is back and healthy and that crowd and how they're
10:50going to be fired up with the Broncos game.
10:53Week two, the Bills are going to open their new stadium, which is going to be incredible, against the Lions
10:57on Thursday night football.
10:59We already know the Ravens and Cowboys are playing in Rio on week three.
11:03And then we come to week four.
11:06And I think – well, first of all, I know there was a lot of back and forth as to
11:11when the Commanders are going to play in London.
11:13I think it's 99.9% chance it's going to be week four on October 4th in London.
11:19The Jaguars play week five.
11:22We don't know who they play week six.
11:24And it's going to be against the Texans on week six.
11:28So that kind of takes the Texans out of the mix for the Commanders.
11:32So I think the Commanders game is between the Colts and Bengals.
11:36There's two pieces of information.
11:38One, later on, around week eight, the Falcons are going to play in Paris.
11:45Or, excuse me, in Madrid, where the Commanders played last year.
11:49And one of their potential opponents is the Cincinnati Bengals.
11:54Cincinnati hasn't played an international game since, like, 2019.
11:59So I think there's a possibility there.
12:01You guys are probably hearing a lot of rumors around, you know, the training camp and the Commanders' headquarters.
12:08But I'd say it's either the Colts or Bengals.
12:11I'm going to lean to the Colts on that game.
12:15I had heard that.
12:16But, you know, who knows?
12:18Okay.
12:20You know, then you've got – I mean, they're playing nine international games.
12:24The Saints are playing in Paris.
12:25Of course, it's going to be against the Browns, the Cleveland Browns, on week seven.
12:32I'm doing that to the War of Parisians, man.
12:34Sending the Browns over there.
12:35Yeah, I know.
12:36That's – Browns and Saints.
12:37That'll be a burn burner.
12:39Paris.
12:40Yeah, it might be.
12:42And then you've got – you know, the 49ers are playing two international games this year.
12:46You know, they've got the Rams in Australia.
12:49And then week 10, they – I mean, week 11, they play in Mexico City.
12:53We don't know who they play yet, but that's two for them.
12:56I heard you earlier, JP, talking about this two-and-two theory.
13:00Yeah.
13:00You know, two years on, two years off in terms of international.
13:03I'm not sure they've locked into that, but I think they're trying to do some kind of a mix
13:07because they're – it's just going to keep getting more and more international games.
13:11So I think the mix is going to get greater and greater as we go along.
13:15And, you know, there's a lot of teams that still haven't played in a while.
13:18They haven't played international games in a while.
13:22And you've got – Cincinnati is one of them.
13:25And you've got Pittsburgh, who played, you know, last year,
13:30but they hadn't played an international game since 2013 before that.
13:34So, you know, they could be heading over to play the Falcons, if you will.
13:40So it's going to be interesting.
13:41Then we get to – we know Thanksgiving.
13:43We know the Cowboys are going to play the Eagles.
13:46They're going to try to beat the rating last year that the Chiefs and Cowboys had.
13:51We don't yet know who the Lions are playing.
13:54That night, I think it'll probably be a division game.
13:58I'm going to guess something like New England-Buffalo on Thanksgiving.
14:02That would be a great game, obviously, in either place.
14:06And then you've got the Black Friday game on Amazon,
14:08which will probably also be a division game.
14:11And they'll go through the different areas.
14:13The other stuff on Christmas, you've got the two Netflix games,
14:19and you've got Fox, a primetime game.
14:20And then you've got Christmas Eve.
14:22So Christmas this year falls on a Friday.
14:24These are all the factors you have to go in.
14:26The NFL, to be honest, is not worried about the NBA on Christmas.
14:30They're just going to put their games on, and they're going to do what they're going to do.
14:33They didn't get to them last year.
14:34Yep.
14:36They're going to go Christmas Eve with an 8 o'clock game on Amazon.
14:39They're going to go three games on Christmas Day, two on Netflix, and one on Fox.
14:44And then the next Saturday, two games on NBC and Peacock.
14:48And then the next Saturday, Netflix, and then two ESPN games on Week 18.
14:53So Week 18 is going to be interesting.
14:54You know, when you try to figure out what game 272 is, which there's a 272 regular season games in
15:01the season,
15:02try to figure out what that final Sunday night game is.
15:05And I actually do work with the league on some of those game matchups.
15:10It gets interesting because they're trying to figure out, you know, the best matchup.
15:15Usually they try to do a win and in.
15:17Like last year was a Pittsburgh Ravens game on that game.
15:20But you had Seattle, San Francisco vying for the division championship.
15:24On Saturday, this gives another unique window.
15:29The challenge with that is you have three games on Saturday and you don't want it to be a situation
15:34where you play a game.
15:35And that result means somebody on Sunday doesn't have anything to play for, particularly against a team that does have
15:41something to play for.
15:42That's the stuff you try to avoid.
15:43And when you start doing too many of these games, you might get in a situation where you can't avoid
15:48it.
15:48So that's what the league is hopefully trying.
15:50The hope doesn't happen.
15:52It's a lot to think about, man.
15:54It's so crazy to think about all that, man.
15:57Like, it's...
15:58I thought they'd just say, hey, okay, we're going to play here, here, here.
16:00Not all that thought going into it.
16:02Joe, how long until you think they get to 18 games?
16:08I would think five years ago if it was up to the league.
16:11The players are obviously pushing back on that.
16:14I think there's two things that go along with that.
16:17One, right now we have three preseason games.
16:20If they go to 18 weeks, it'll likely be two preseason games.
16:24That brings up other factors, right?
16:26Will people be in enough shape?
16:28Will players be in enough shape?
16:29A lot of players say we don't really need preseason.
16:32College doesn't have a preseason.
16:34They go right into their season.
16:36But I think that's where we'll end up.
16:38I think it's going to be...
16:40If the league ends up splitting off of their current contracts
16:45and renegotiating deals in 2028 and beyond,
16:49I think 18 weeks will be part of that negotiation.
16:52So if I had to guess, I'd say 2029, 2030, somewhere in that area.
16:57Man, the NFL is just such a behemoth.
17:00Dude, what's crazy is you said something there, Joe,
17:03that the NFL is not worried about the NBA on Christmas.
17:05The NBA should know that.
17:07The NBA used to own Christmas.
17:09And as soon as the NFL was like,
17:10oh, wait a second, we can do this,
17:12they just dropped.
17:13I think one game,
17:14they had the amount of people watching it
17:16than the whole NBA had that whole day.
17:20Yeah, and I don't mean that to be derogatory towards the NBA.
17:23No, dude, you're just telling the truth.
17:23NBA still have an audience.
17:25They still have an audience.
17:26It's just the NFL, the nature of the schedule,
17:31the limited number of games,
17:33the week-to-week nature of it
17:34versus an 82-game grinding season in the NBA and NHL and others.
17:41It's just a different format,
17:43and it makes for bigger games.
17:47And, you know, listen,
17:48sports betting is a big part of it, too.
17:50Sure.
17:51You know, the interest in the league, fantasy football,
17:54there's, you know, fantasy football
17:55is a major, major factor in NFL viewership.
18:00And there's just not the same in rotisserie baseball
18:03or fantasy basketball.
18:04It just doesn't compare.
18:06So you've got that factor and sports betting.
18:09And, you know, sports books make their money on NFL.
18:13NFL and World Cup soccer and a few other things.
18:18But for the most part, it's NFL.
18:21And they dominate.
18:22There's no two ways about it.
18:24It's crazy, man.
18:27And it's just going.
18:30It's just going to keep going.
18:31You know what I mean?
18:33Joe, dude.
18:34What do you guys think about that?
18:35What do you guys think about the Commander's opener?
18:37What are you thinking?
18:39I think they open at home Sunday 1 o'clock.
18:42I, an opponent, I don't know.
18:44But I think they open at home Sunday 1 o'clock.
18:49What do you think, Joe?
18:50Yeah, and obviously, well, obviously,
18:52Dallas and Giants are off the table, right?
18:54Right.
18:55They're playing that night.
18:56I don't think it's silly.
18:58I know they like to open some of those games.
19:02If I had to say, I think it's the Atlanta Falcons.
19:07I think the Falcons coming in town is probably my gut on it.
19:11Especially if it's Cincinnati going international.
19:15And obviously, Indy, international.
19:17It could be Houston.
19:18But I don't think they're going to do the Rams or Seattle.
19:21That's the other thing, too.
19:23Is the strength of the schedule is often built by the schedule rotation.
19:31This year, the NFC East plays the NFC West.
19:34That makes some great matchups.
19:36Same thing in the AFC.
19:37AFC East plays the AFC West.
19:40It means for a lot of travel for these teams.
19:43It makes it difficult.
19:44But you think about the matchups.
19:45You know, you've got Dallas playing San Francisco, the Rams, and Seattle in their own conference.
19:53Same thing for Philadelphia.
19:54And on the AFC side, you've got New England and Buffalo, two big TV teams now, playing Denver, the Chargers,
20:01and Kansas City.
20:02So you've got these great matchups.
20:04Now, when it's AFC East against AFC South, it doesn't make the greatest matchups with Jacksonville and Houston and Indy
20:12and Tennessee.
20:13So this year is very unique where you've got both East and West divisions playing each other.
20:18And it creates what I call great game inventory for the league to work with.
20:23And the schedule is going to look very strong.
20:25All right.
20:25Just so this is fair, Joe, can I tweet the following out?
20:29Schedule predictions from at Joe NFL.
20:32Season opener, Bears at Seahawks.
20:35Commander's opener versus Atlanta at home.
20:37And then Commander's London game week four versus Colts.
20:42Yep.
20:42All right.
20:42Go for it.
20:43There we have it.
20:44Thank you for the time, dude.
20:45Great to hear from you.
20:46Take care, man.
20:48Take care, guys.
20:49We'll see you soon.
20:49All right, brother.
20:50That's our guy, Joe Ferreira.
20:51Give him a follow at Joe NFL.
20:53He can go, that dude is an encyclopedia on this kind of stuff.
20:56That is.
20:56I love it.
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