00:00How confident are you that Mahomes will be the week one starter for Kansas City?
00:03I'm 50-50, and I told you this last time you and I spoke.
00:08And it's not a knock on Pat Mahomes in any capacity, Kevin.
00:13He's clearly not just the face of the franchise,
00:15but he's one of the best quarterbacks, if not the best modern day,
00:19next to Tom Brady, three Super Bowls under his belt.
00:22But we look at this situation similar to the situation with Joe Burrow
00:27with the calf injury just a couple of seasons ago.
00:30And we said, hey, you don't want to rush Joe Burrow back too soon
00:34because if he gets injured, he's so important to that franchise
00:38that if he goes down in the first month of the regular season,
00:41your playoff and Super Bowl hopes are washed down the drain
00:46within the first week or potentially month of the regular season.
00:50Pat Mahomes is coming off an ACL injury.
00:53You want to make sure he's 100% healthy before you rush him back.
00:58And I know you and I debated that potentially Kansas City would look at the schedule
01:02and say, okay, can they win three games?
01:05Can they win two games?
01:07Are they going to be up against it in the first month of the regular season?
01:10And that potentially will gauge whether Mahomes is under center in week number one.
01:16But I look at it just strictly from the knee and the health perspective.
01:19He comes back 85%, 90%, and he's ginger, and he gets hurt and is out of that lineup,
01:27just washed his season away.
01:29Now, we saw Justin Fields be in this situation with Russell Wilson a couple of years ago
01:34or three years ago with Pittsburgh, and he wound up being the week one starter
01:39because Russell Wilson couldn't go.
01:41I think it's 50-50 right now.
01:43Yeah, I think it's odd because I can tell that for those around Mahomes,
01:52he is desperate to be out there week one.
01:57He is adamant it is almost seemingly taking it as a challenge to be out there week one,
02:04perhaps proving people wrong.
02:07And while that is admirable, that is not necessary,
02:12and it is potentially not even wise if that extra week or two were to make the difference
02:18to your point, Joe, of being 80% and 100%.
02:22But speaking of percent, minus 720, the implied probability is 87.8%.
02:29So to Joe's 50-50, there's quite a bit of, you know, value the other way, one could argue.
02:41It's this thing where I don't think Mahomes, Joe, should be as strong a favorite as he is
02:49to be the week one quarterback.
02:51But based on the way he and the Chiefs and the people who cover this team are talking about it,
02:57I would be very surprised if he wasn't the week one quarterback.
03:02And I think maybe you feel somewhat similar.
03:05Well, yeah, I mean, on paper, yes.
03:08Let's say he is 80%, or let's say, to your point, 87% healthy.
03:14Let's give him 90.
03:15Heck, give him 92.
03:18Can he go higher than this?
03:19I mean, yeah, he could start week one.
03:22That is the upside.
03:23The downside is he doesn't start the first couple of weeks of the regular season.
03:28That's where the value is.
03:30Let's say he's trending to be on pace to be the week one starter.
03:34He has a minor setback, Kevin.
03:37All of a sudden, that bet goes the other way, right?
03:39So my point is, here we are about, what, four months out for the regular season, three months
03:45for, let's say, camp or in that.
03:48He's not playing in the preseason.
03:50If anything, maybe they'll give him a series.
03:53They're not going to risk Pat Mahomes coming off an ACL injury to play in the preseason,
03:58are they?
03:59I mean, that's a little risky.
04:02So, and let's say he does go out there.
04:05All of a sudden now, he gets knocked around and faces a minor setback.
04:10All of a sudden, now that bet becomes maybe 30-70 the other way, and then you have more
04:15value of him not starting week one than Justin Fields being on the center.
04:21I potentially would take the shot at the 5-1 for Justin Fields because, again, you know,
04:27love him or hate him, he's still a quarterback that has experience.
04:31We know he can run the football with the addition of Kenneth Walker.
04:35Now you have a potential dynamic rushing attack to take the pressure off the passing game,
04:40and if Spags has elevated the defense, like we believe, to some capacity in the draft,
04:45you don't have to all of a sudden air it out 40 and 50 times per game.
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