- 10 hours ago
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00At the end of the period in Montreal, I do like the siren.
00:02Me too.
00:03Sam Paniotovic with us, chicken dinner, noted Chicago radio personality,
00:09living in New England now.
00:11Shall we ask, do you have a take on horns?
00:13We're working ourselves into playoff shape here, Sam,
00:16by getting to hate everything about the team the Sabres are playing,
00:20including their horns.
00:22Okay.
00:23I covered the Blackhawks when they debuted Chelsea Dagger as the goal song,
00:27and that took over the city.
00:29Da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da.
00:32And that was a good one.
00:33I think a lot of the horns, though, are pretty bad, to be fair.
00:37Chicago had the first one.
00:39Chicago Stadium had the first horn.
00:42Maybe Buffalo was second, Bulldog?
00:44Do you think so?
00:45I don't know.
00:45But Chicago, for years, was the only team with a goal horn.
00:50And, I mean, that was cool, but now everybody does it.
00:52Right.
00:53Sam, so you've been doing some, shall I call it, research on hockey futures,
00:59what is it?
01:00Sure.
01:01So I've been texting around Vegas and basically asking about the liability
01:05that has built up over the season on Buffalo.
01:08And Jeff Davis at Circa, I thought this was really interesting.
01:12So November 14th, Circa Sports in Vegas, a very big, sharp sports book,
01:18had the Sabres at 350-1 to win the Stanley Cup.
01:23Wow.
01:24Can you believe that?
01:24Wow.
01:25That's insane, right?
01:26So they actually opened 150-1 because the Sabres, forget making a run.
01:32They weren't supposed to make the playoffs.
01:34So they opened 150-1.
01:36And then before that huge stretch in November, December, 350-1.
01:41The biggest bet they took was a five-figure bet at 125-1.
01:49There's also a bet on this.
01:51There's a 600-1 bet on Colorado to beat Buffalo in the Stanley Cup final.
01:58600-1, you said?
02:01Mm-hmm.
02:02Are these your bets, Bulldog?
02:04These are not my bets.
02:06My figure bet.
02:06I do not have any.
02:08That's at least a million dollars.
02:09I have no future action at this moment.
02:12It's at least a million dollars if they win it.
02:14I've got action on tonight, and that's it.
02:15That's better.
02:16Yeah.
02:16Well, I mean, who knew that any of this was – what is it now, 8-1, 10?
02:22Yeah, Colorado Buffalo is about 7 or 8-1.
02:25And I still don't think it's the worst idea.
02:26In fact, I was on a podcast earlier this week where the host said, who do you like to go
02:31to the Stanley Cup final?
02:32And I was like, Colorado and Buffalo.
02:35I panicked.
02:35I wasn't prepared for the question, you know.
02:39Look, they should win tonight.
02:41They should.
02:42And then, naturally, Buffalo will lose the next two in Montreal, and then we'll come back to Buffalo 2-2.
02:48But we've seen some bets, actually, today in Vegas on Montreal.
02:53But these were the same people that bet Montreal in game number one.
02:57And I personally don't think the game was all that close.
03:01Obviously, we all watched it.
03:03The one bet that I keep looking at today – I know last week, and it's very funny.
03:07You know, I appreciate the audience in Buffalo.
03:09Very loyal, very friendly for the most part.
03:11When I wasn't on at my usual time today, 3.30, I got three direct messages from people that bet
03:17Alex Tuck first goal last week.
03:20And basically, like the Dave Chappelle meme, like scratching his neck, you know, looking for drugs.
03:26So, they're asking, who do I like to score tonight?
03:29And I hate to give you the odds on favorite here, but this is a Taze Thompson plus 150 night,
03:35isn't it?
03:36I wouldn't hate it.
03:38I mean, knock yourself out.
03:39I'm back on Josh Norris again tonight.
03:42You and Norris.
03:44I'm going to die hard on Norris.
03:45I just want to feel like Norris is up to this.
03:47And we can talk about that later.
03:50I'm still trying to figure out what he is.
03:53But, you know, I love when you are on him because you have to train die.
03:55I just feel like Benson is going to do so much.
03:59And even if they're not matched up on the number one line, maybe that's even better.
04:02I just feel like there's going to be opportunity there for Norris.
04:05To, you know, it was, you know, Doan in game one and the cloud on the power play.
04:10To me, that could easily be Norris.
04:12Well, you know.
04:12So, I'm there.
04:13Thompson, I haven't looked.
04:15He hasn't scored in six.
04:17He's scored twice in game one and that's been it.
04:19So, it's six games without a goal.
04:20That's probably a pretty big drought for him for his last three years.
04:24I think he gets one tonight.
04:25I think he does.
04:26At plus 150, I think it's a decent bet.
04:29If you're looking for a longer shot, though, because, again, we had Tuck last week at about
04:343-1.
04:35He was 12-1 for the first goal.
04:38Bowen Byram is 7-1 to score.
04:40At any time, he is 30-1 to score the first goal.
04:44I may have a little piece of money on that one.
04:46He has four goals in the playoffs.
04:49I think, respecting the Thompson idea, I'd have to bet him to score twice to make it worth it.
04:56Plus 950.
04:57That I might do.
04:59Tail Sam.
04:59But what if he scores once, Mike?
05:01You're going to hate yourself.
05:02No, I'll never hate myself.
05:04This is what makes me feel like I'm alive.
05:07Losing.
05:08Right.
05:08Losing.
05:09You know?
05:10Adjacent.
05:10Yeah.
05:11Correct adjacent.
05:12I don't want to put Mike's name on this, but you know my motto.
05:15I'd rather lose $10 than win $12.
05:17So, you know, I've got to get the odds.
05:20You know, it's got to be enough that I'm going to feel alive if the bet is alive.
05:26Sam's like, how did I end up with these two?
05:27I know.
05:28He's already talking about a different show where he wasn't prepared for the question.
05:32When has he ever been prepared for one of our questions?
05:35Horns at hockey games.
05:37Right.
05:37The poor guy.
05:40Sam, assuming you're still there, because I didn't want to alienate you, what's your
05:44lacrosse problem?
05:46I just, I have no interest in lacrosse.
05:49And today, apparently, is the opening day of lacrosse.
05:51And I have a lot of Twitter, I guess, interactions or Twitter impressions today of people trying
05:59to sell me lacrosse bets.
06:02And I have no interest in betting on the PLL or watching the PLL.
06:07I'm just, I'm not a lacrosse guy, Mike.
06:08That's all.
06:09That's it.
06:09Nothing more.
06:10Just don't, don't want the distractions.
06:13Don't, don't want it.
06:14Kelly in Vegas has.
06:15Can you imagine, can you imagine paying for PLL bets?
06:21Yes.
06:22I mean, I have, I have bet that league.
06:25I mean, I know it a little bit.
06:26Sam, once I, once I gambled on Chinese men's Olympic hockey, I think, you know, pretty much
06:31all bets were off.
06:32Literally.
06:32That's right.
06:34It's just like, I, I, what, what, won't I gamble on?
06:37I don't know.
06:37Sam, we know to be a White Sox fan.
06:41They are, I guess, in it.
06:44I mean, two games out in a bad division.
06:46Scooble hurt for Detroit, for Detroit.
06:48But I looked at the futures today, Sam, and they are a much bigger long shot than anybody
06:53else there.
06:54Like, even the Royals or the Twins.
06:56Does that line up?
06:57Should the, should the White Sox be plus 2,000?
07:00To win the AL Central when the Twins or the Royals are like maybe 4 or 5 to 1?
07:07No, I don't think so.
07:09I also, I think the better market, though, is to reach the playoffs.
07:13So there's a 7 to 1, an 8-20 at FanDuel, a 12 to 1 at DraftKings, and a 13
07:19to 1 at MGM.
07:22That gap is massive.
07:25You know, there's no way a team should be as low as 7 and as high as 13 to 1.
07:29And, you know, a website that I look at all the time is Baseball Reference.
07:33They do a playoff odds page that I literally have in one of my 35 tabs on my browser every
07:40morning.
07:40I refresh it and look at it.
07:42So according to Baseball Reference, the White Sox have about a 20% chance to make the playoffs.
07:49Well, that's nowhere near 13 to 1, Mike.
07:51I mean, it's just mathematically not right.
07:54Like a 20% chance is much lower than 13 to 1.
07:57So I think it's basically odds maker disbelief.
08:02So you're paying, you know, you're paying a tax on a lot of things.
08:05We pay taxes every week on Patrick Mahomes, on Josh Allen.
08:09We're not going to pay a tax on Josh or excuse me, on the White Sox because they haven't done
08:14anything.
08:15So I think it's basically those books, like the MGM and the DraftKings side of it is they're
08:21daring you, hey, come on in.
08:23We'll roll the carpet out.
08:24Water's warm.
08:25Come bet this 12 to 1, 13 to 1.
08:27But then you have another book at 7 to 1.
08:29So this speaks to the importance of obviously having more than one sports book.
08:33If you're going to bet $100 and you're going to take the 7 to 1 when there's a 12 to
08:381 and
08:38a 13 to 1 in the market, shame on you.
08:41Look, it's a young team, the pitching has been unbelievably good since April 3rd, believe
08:47it or not.
08:47The Chicago White Sox have the best starting pitching ERA in the majors.
08:52I don't think that's going to last through June, July, August, September, but the starting
08:56pitching has been the biggest surprise.
08:58And of course, Murakami's been awesome.
09:00Did I send you that Murakami bet that I made, Mike?
09:02Yes.
09:02The home run leader?
09:03Lead the league in home runs, yes.
09:04Or lead the baseball.
09:06100 to 1.
09:07Love it.
09:08How about this too?
09:09I like the logic of all of this.
09:12Bulldog, how many, 15 teams, how many teams in the American League are more than one game
09:16over 500?
09:18Oh my gosh.
09:19I saw this the other day.
09:21Is it, is it only two?
09:25Two.
09:25Yeah.
09:26Great job.
09:26Yankees and Rays.
09:27Yeah.
09:28Who are both more than like a 2 to 1 win to loss pace.
09:31But nobody else is more than one game over 500.
09:35Pick one of these teams.
09:36Six make it.
09:37We're about almost a quarter of the way in.
09:40Pick one of these long shots.
09:41White Sox make some sense.
09:43Boston, six under.
09:44Toronto, five under.
09:45Houston, eight under.
09:46Like, I don't know.
09:47There's room.
09:49Sam, thank you.
09:50Will you be watching the game tonight?
09:53Yeah.
09:53I'm not going to go to a bar across the street from the Garden, though, this time.
09:57I might just watch it at home.
09:58But I do have some savers tonight, and I do think Taze will light the lamp at plus 150.
10:03I know, again, you want a longer shot.
10:07Let's just keep it simple, stupid.
10:09Taze Thompson, plus 150 to score.
10:11Light it up.
10:11You want a longer shot.
10:12You want to lose.
10:13No, I like it.
10:14I'm going with you.
10:15I'm glad you mentioned the bar across the street, because I want to at least publicly thank you
10:19for taking care of the kid last Friday.
10:22He had an unbelievable trip.
10:23I didn't want to make this whole segment turn into, like, rehashing all that.
10:27But for folks that don't know, Sam pulled Owen into town.
10:32He set him up with a couple bartenders at this place near the Garden, and Owen got to
10:38hold court there and buy beers for people because so many fans threw money into his Venmo so he
10:42could go to Boston.
10:44And you helped him a ton, and I appreciate it.
Comments