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The Sports Junkies discuss the latest Washington Commanders news.
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00:00All right, so we wanted to get into the Commanders here and an interesting quote from Skip Bayless.
00:07This is from Heavy.com.
00:09I don't know if Skip Bayless has a podcast at this point.
00:12I don't follow Skip Bayless.
00:13I don't really digest his content.
00:14Didn't they say he was going to make a return to ESPN for a moment or something?
00:17I don't know.
00:18He's going to be on with Stephen A. Smith this Friday.
00:20They're reuniting.
00:21I think he does stuff with Gilbert Arenas' show or network of shows.
00:26I think that's right.
00:27I think that's right.
00:28So in a recent conversation discussing the NFC East, Skip Bayless stated, quote,
00:33if Jaden Daniels can stay upright for 17 games, they probably have a really good chance to win the division.
00:40He's that good.
00:41I think he's the most talented quarterback in the division.
00:45End quote.
00:46Then he proceeds to give a pie chart of where he thinks each team is as far as winning a
00:52division title.
00:53He thinks the Eagles have a 35% chance of winning.
00:56Cowboys at 30%.
00:58The Commanders, 20%.
01:00And the Giants, 15%.
01:02That's reasonable.
01:04I think that's reasonable.
01:05I think everybody would say that the Eagles are the favorite.
01:07But I do think that they're coming back to the pack.
01:11The Cowboys apparently had this great draft.
01:14Their offense is pretty prolific, at least on paper.
01:17They franchised Pickens.
01:20Yep.
01:20So they're going to have Pickens and Lamb still together.
01:23Dak Prescott, if he stays healthy, that should be a really good offense.
01:26And then with the Commanders, if Jaden stays healthy, it's a game changer.
01:31I mean, we can point to a million things that went wrong last year and say the defense was terrible
01:38and that's why they changed the coordinator and offense struggled.
01:42Well, the simplest reason is Jaden Daniels missed the majority of their games.
01:48Their starting quarterback missed the majority of the games.
01:50Now, Drab would tell you, and I agree with him, Jaden wasn't playing spectacularly well when he was on the
01:56field.
01:56So when he was on the field, they were still losing.
01:59I think his quarterback rating, old school quarterback rating, pass rating, whatever you want to call it, not QBR, was
02:05an 88.
02:05That's pedestrian.
02:07Yep.
02:07So he was not playing fantastic.
02:09He was not playing like he did as a rookie.
02:11Nope.
02:12But any team in the NFL, if you eliminate their starting quarterback, they're going to struggle.
02:19That is the single biggest reason they didn't have a winning record last year.
02:23And so if he comes back and says he's healthy for 17, which is Skip Bayless' hypothetical, I think they
02:30should have a winning record.
02:31I do, too.
02:32I think we all agree to that.
02:34I mean, if he stays on, I don't know if he can stay on the field for 17.
02:38That's kind of a tall task considering how he's built and how he plays.
02:41But if he does, absolutely, they're going to, they improved in a lot of facets.
02:47And the new offense should keep him out of harm's way more than in Kingsbury's offense.
02:51That's a huge component of it.
02:53I would totally agree with that.
02:55If he plays the full season, I mean, 10-11 wins, I would expect that.
03:00I think that's a reasonable pie chart, too.
03:03I think we'd all probably say the Eagles are still the favorite.
03:07But they're not a runaway favorite.
03:09I think the Cowboys are going to be, they did a lot of what Washington did in free agency and
03:15in the draft.
03:16They focused on the defense.
03:17They added 15 guys when you talk about free agency and the draft.
03:23They didn't focus as much on offense besides going out and getting, or they franchised Pickens and then they signed
03:30Valdez Scantley.
03:32But for the most part, I think they got pretty darn good defensively.
03:37Besides the big names, Rashawn Gary comes over from the Packers.
03:41They draft Caleb Downs.
03:42They got D winners.
03:43Malachi Lawrence should upgrade the pass rush.
03:45Yep.
03:46So they definitely, they realize, look, our defense just cratered.
03:50Yeah.
03:50Kind of like the commanders.
03:51Yeah.
03:51And we have to add personnel here.
03:53They traded Micah Parsons.
03:55Right.
03:55Yeah.
03:56Regarding Jaden playing 17.
03:58So last year, if this is correct, there were seven quarterbacks that played all 17 games last year.
04:05Stafford, Goff, Prescott, Bo Nix, Cam Ward, Darnold, and Herbert.
04:10So seven out of 32.
04:12So what is that?
04:1325%?
04:14Less than 25%?
04:15Like 20, maybe 20%, right?
04:18Seven out of 32?
04:18I don't know.
04:21That's what I would say the likelihood is of Jaden playing.
04:24Yeah.
04:24I mean, I think.
04:25I mean, I think.
04:25I mean, I think.
04:26I mean, I think.
04:26I mean, I think it's tough to stay upright.
04:28There's only seven guys that did it last year.
04:30I think you'd be happy if.
04:31You did 15.
04:33I can't hear your mic.
04:35I think you'd be happy if you get 13 to 15.
04:40Right.
04:40I'd say 15.
04:41If he played 15.
04:42Actually, yeah.
04:42I'm saying 13 to 15.
04:44If he plays less than 13.
04:45Need 15.
04:46I know.
04:46Need 15 plus.
04:48Somehow that.
04:49I'm just saying.
04:50Get at least 13.
04:51It needs Terry for 15.
04:52How many guys played 15 last year?
04:54Because.
04:5515?
04:56You want to ask that question now?
04:57Yeah.
04:57Okay.
04:58Because.
04:59How many quarterbacks played 15?
05:00Yeah.
05:01Because now they're shutting down guys in the last week.
05:04Like the 17 number.
05:06By the way.
05:07I think you're off on the 17.
05:09I think so too.
05:10That's what I got.
05:11Drake.
05:11Did you add Drake May?
05:13No.
05:13Did you add Baker Mayfield?
05:15Josh Allen?
05:16No.
05:18That's not me, dude.
05:19I just asked it.
05:19That's what Google came up with.
05:20Well, these are the guys who played 17.
05:22Cam Ward.
05:24Josh Allen.
05:25Baker Mayfield.
05:26Bo Nix.
05:27I had him.
05:29Caleb Williams.
05:30Didn't have him.
05:31Trevor Lawrence.
05:32Sam Darnold.
05:33Drake May.
05:33That sounds like it's about 12 to 14.
05:35Yeah, yeah.
05:36So it's closer to 45% or so.
05:38So 40%.
05:39Yeah.
05:3915?
05:40A bunch of guys played 15 at least.
05:4115 you can add.
05:43Well, Josh Allen, it says 15.
05:45You have him at 17?
05:47I got him at 17 here.
05:48Yeah.
05:49I don't know.
05:49That's it.
05:50So there you go.
05:51Getting.
05:51Let me see.
05:52Guys have conflicting reports.
05:53Is that an AI hallucination?
05:55It's a hallucination from Gemini.
05:57It says Josh Allen played 15.
06:01I don't know.
06:02It says Geno Smith started 15.
06:04I mean.
06:04Justin Herbert.
06:05I don't know.
06:06Actually, he did not play the Jet game.
06:10So ESPN's wrong because he didn't play the Jet game on January 4th.
06:13That was the last game.
06:14So he played 16.
06:15So I don't know why they have 17.
06:17So for the most part, you're probably right.
06:20Most of these quarterbacks.
06:23Most of the quarterbacks played at least 15.
06:25My point is whatever the league average is, that's what I would ascribe to Jaden.
06:30Even granting they got a slider build and he puts himself in danger a little more than
06:35others.
06:36I think that, you know, the best case is the league average.
06:42So if it's 35-40%, that's what I think the chances of him playing 17 games are.
06:46Here's what I know.
06:47You can't have Marcus Mariota play 11 games and think that you're going to be successful
06:52as a team.
06:53That's going to do you.
06:54And that's what he played last year.
06:56That will end your playoff hopes.
06:58But I would say this.
06:59I would say this.
06:59Even if Mariota has to play four or five games, the fact that they went out and improved
07:04their defense considerably gives them a better chance to win those games as opposed to last
07:10year.
07:10Because Mariota is not going to outscore teams when you're giving up 28 or 30.
07:14Right.
07:15So, I mean, you'd like to see Jaden out there for the whole year, but if he's not and he's
07:20dinged up a couple weeks, three, four weeks, I think the defense can win some games for
07:24him.
07:24What do you think the chances are?
07:26And I know guys like Drabb think it's very possible.
07:29What do you think the chances are that Jaden plays, like, say, 17 games?
07:32It just doesn't.
07:33It's just not impressive.
07:35Not impressive at all.
07:36Let's just say this has an average year in the middle of the road.
07:39I think that's 20% or less.
07:41Yeah, I think it's unlikely.
07:42I think it's a low percentage that that's the case.
07:44I think over 17 games, the greatness will win out.
07:48I think he's going to have if he plays 17 games, he's going to put I think it would
07:50help if they signed another competent wide out.
07:53I think that would certainly help him.
07:55That would help his chances of having a really good 2026 campaign.
07:59I mean, he needs Terry and his age, what, 30, 30 year to have a big year.
08:07He needs Terry to have a big year.
08:09Well, I mean, and you need Rashad White to stay healthy, which he has pretty much his entire
08:14career with Tampa.
08:15I figure that's going to be, yeah, I figure that's going to be just by committee.
08:17Yep.
08:18Maybe K-Tron Allen comes in and is a spark.
08:22He's one I don't understand because he's like so prolific.
08:27Like the all-time leading rusher with some of the best backs ever in the history.
08:30Like he's number one.
08:31He played a lot of games.
08:32He played a lot and he's just, he's got all these great acts.
08:35He's kind of a bruiser.
08:36Is he a compiler?
08:37Maybe he's a compiler.
08:38I'm not trying to say anything derogatory about it, but there's nothing about when you
08:41watch him and you go, wow.
08:43There's no wow.
08:43He doesn't have blazing speed.
08:45He's just a tough.
08:46Just tough.
08:47He's built kind of small and big.
08:49Maybe he'll be great.
08:50I just don't know how to, I don't know how to process him.
08:52He's not the best receiver.
08:53Remember, we need to call him Fat Man.
08:54He wants to be called Fat Man.
08:56That's his nickname.
08:57I know.
08:58He's going to get so many endorsement opportunities.
09:00So many fast food opportunities.
09:02For Fat Man.
09:03I would think.
09:04He'd be cashing in.
09:05But he's definitely, of the draft picks, he's probably got the best resume of all of them
09:11and he's the one that I'm not as excited about.
09:14He's not going to get many touches in all likelihood.
09:16Even if he was.
09:17Even if he was the primary guy.
09:19I feel like he's just, I don't know, give you four or five yards every time, but that's
09:24about it.
09:25But back to, you would take four or five yards every carry.
09:27I guess I would.
09:28There's just nothing sexy about him that I see.
09:30I know there's nothing sexy, but he's a guy that if he makes the team, he can help you
09:34a little bit.
09:35Back to Jaden Daniels.
09:36Because RBs don't stay healthy for the entire year, so he's probably going to play.
09:39Back to Jaden Daniels, which was the premise of what Skip Bayless was talking about.
09:44Are you concerned, though, that the play dropped off?
09:4769% completion percentage as a rookie.
09:5060.6% in the seven games played last year.
09:53Slightly, but not much.
09:56His passer rating, old school, went from 100.1 to 88.1.
10:00His QBR dropped from 67.7 to 44.7.
10:05I don't want to bring this up because I don't want to cop him to this guy, but the drop
10:09-off
10:09was kind of C.J. Stroud-ish.
10:10Yes.
10:11And I don't want him to turn into C.J. Stroud because I don't think he's that good.
10:15So if he turns into him, then that's going to be bad news for the Commanders down the road.
10:20I need a rebound close to his rookie season performance.
10:24In the limited work, he had touchdowns, only three interceptions, so he does take care of the ball.
10:30He doesn't throw many interceptions, but just the passing numbers were down.
10:33Now, he didn't have Terry there the whole time.
10:35Yeah, it was just weird.
10:37It was just a weird bad year.
10:39Hard to find a rhythm when you're in and out of the lineup.
10:41Yep.
10:42I think that's what compounded it, too.
10:45So you didn't have a lot of work with Terry before the season.
10:48His rushing numbers also were down.
10:51He went from averaging six yards per run to 4.8 yards per run.
10:56Well, I mean, teams were more focused on him as opposed to year one.
10:59Do you want to see him running the ball 150 times like he did in rookie year?
11:0590 to 100, yes.
11:07150?
11:08That's a lot.
11:08If you knock off a third of it.
11:09Probably not.
11:10Knock off a third of it.
11:11But I mean, he put up on 900 yards, though.
11:14That's a big weapon when he's running.
11:17I would agree.
11:18I don't want him running.
11:18They're not going to get rid of that, but I think it will be reduced.
11:21It's going to be scaled down.
11:22To try to keep him out on the field as much as possible.
11:24Yeah.
11:25I mean, the design plays, yes.
11:26But he's still going to bounce out and get you 12 yards.
11:29Just get out of bounds.
11:30I still think he has Hall of Fame talent, so we'll see.
11:33Well, long ways away.
11:35If he has another year like last year, I could say on the year he's like 59%,
11:39and, you know, then I will reevaluate.
11:43Get back in the lab.
11:44Yeah, but I figure out what's doing.
11:46I think the skill set is pretty elite.
11:48I think he's going to run just about as much.
11:51Because if you look, rookie season, he ran a little over eight times per game.
11:56Yeah.
11:57Sophomore season, ran a little over eight times per game.
12:00That's just his DNA.
12:01Yeah, but if I'm Dan Quinn, I'm going to sit down with David Blau and be like,
12:05let's run him four or five times per game.
12:08Let's reduce the bumps and bruises on, you know, our star player.
12:12But remember, a lot of those are just reactionary.
12:13You can't plan for it.
12:15That's what JP's getting at.
12:17I think it's going to be different looks.
12:19I feel like the offense is going to be more like what I envision that the Broncos used to do
12:24with John Elway,
12:25where he's rolling to the right, and it's a tight end, and he can throw it to the tight end.
12:30Or you run out of bounds.
12:32Oh, man.
12:33That's going to be sweet.
12:34Looking forward to it.
12:36Chig on one side, Diggs on the other.
12:38He gets signed.
12:40I'm basically already gift wrapping Stefan Diggs to the commanders.
12:44I don't know why I'm doing that.
12:45I don't think they're going to do it.
12:47Assuming he's going to wind up here.
12:48I would assume they would have already got something done.
12:50There's going to be teams that are going to give him way more than we're going to give him.
12:54It's possible.
12:55That's what it's going to do.
12:55See what his market looks like.
12:57All right, when we come back, we'll do EB's entertainment page.
12:59And don't forget, at 9 o'clock, Paul Taboney, president of Baseball Ops for the Washington Nationals,
13:05will join us here on The Junks.
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