How the Iran Conflict and Falling Rates Are Impacting the Housing Market

HousingWire

On today's episode, Brena Nath, vice president of community and events at HousingWire, talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the latest impacts to housing due to the Iranian conflict, whether falling rates helped demand and changes in housing inventory. Beyond diving into the Housing Market Tracker, they tease Mohtashami's headline session at The Gathering next week and all the ways you can find him in person.   ​​ Related to this episode:   Weekly pending home sales show yearly growth as mortgage rates fall  https://www.housingwire.com/articles/weekly-pending-home-sales-show-yearly-growth-as-mortgage-rates-fall/  The Gathering by HousingWire  https://events.housingwire.com/the-gathering-2026/home  HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q  More info about HousingWire  https://lnk.bio/housingwire   To learn more about Total Expert visit totalexpert.com   The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Transcript

00:09Welcome, everyone. I'm Brennan Nath, and my guest today is Logo Motoshami to talk about

00:16his latest housing market tracker from inventory to home sales to mortgage rates, including a

00:23little bit on the gathering. But before we jump in, I wanted to thank our sponsor, Total Expert,

00:28for making this episode possible. Welcome, everyone. I am so excited to being able or being

00:35allowed to sub in for Sarah Wheeler this week. Logo Motoshami, it's my turn to step in. Brennan Nath,

00:43I lead events here at Housing Wire. Thank you for letting me host today. Yes, and I remember a very,

00:50very young Brennan Nath was the first person from Housing Wire I ever met in 2014, you know, 12 years

00:57later. Here we are on a podcast. I'd like to say I'm an OG fan then, like your OG fan.

01:04We go way back

01:04and a lot of data, the charts also date back to 2014. Maybe people should know that. Yeah, I started

01:12writing in late 2010. But yeah, 2014 charts, they're drawn differently. But yeah, chart daddy now,

01:202026, brand new version, hair is bigger, you know, so here it is. Hair is bigger. I was asked the

01:26other

01:27day for a video for you for social and something in marketing people always talk about is having

01:32something that's scroll stopping. And my first thought was we don't need scroll stopping copy

01:35the hair. The hair is scroll stopping. That's all you need for the social post. Perfect. Okay. Well,

01:42there's a lot to cover and a lot of different themes that I think are important to talk about,

01:46especially coming after a holiday week last week. But let's start with the biggest news story that's

01:53going on. I read your housing market tracker. I'm guessing a lot of people on here also read it

01:58who are listening. Can you give us the latest update then from what you originally left us with

02:03on Saturday, which is, hey, there's a lot that could be talked about when it comes to the Iranian

02:06conflict. What do you need to expand upon now? So over the weekends, we get a lot of news. That's

02:13just how this works, right? They don't really want to ruffle feathers too much during market hours. But

02:18over the weekend, you start to see people, hey, we won't talk. Yes, you will. We'll bomb this. We

02:23won't bomb that. So we had another weekend of headlines of things might not maybe working out.

02:30However, with all that said, the 10-year yield, even at one point early this morning on Monday

02:37morning, we're looking at it being flat at four and a quarter. And earlier in the year before the war

02:44was even initiated, the 10-year yield had a high about 4.30, 4.31. So I think for a

02:51lot of people,

02:52it's strange to see with elevated oil prices and inflation running well above target that we still

02:58have the 10-year yield at four and a quarter. And mortgage rates this morning were about 6.30.

03:03So I think the longer this goes and we have this response from the bond market and oil did perk

03:13up

03:13on Sunday night, but not back to the highs, the market is trying to say maybe we're closer to the

03:20end of this conflict than maybe escalating. I think if it was escalating, oil prices should be at 120.

03:28Maybe the 10-year yield goes back and tests that 4.48 level. But that's what I got from this

03:34weekend.

03:35Every weekend, I want to see how the bond market acts Sunday night and early morning. And to me,

03:39it's just like they're kind of getting ready to maybe phase out this process. But it's a wild card.

03:46Every day is a wild card. We have two variables between the U.S. and Iran that they say things

03:53off

03:53to cuff that can move markets. But you only think this is done when ships start to really start

04:00sailing and have no problem. You need oil starting to flow again. You need production to pick up. And

04:06that's kind of what I took from this weekend is that a lot of crazy headlines, not a lot of

04:11market

04:12reaction late Sunday or even early Monday. It's interesting because we've had you on the

04:18house tomorrow stage twice. We've had two events this year. We'll always get Logan on stage and we're

04:22only a week out from the gathering. So I can expect probably even just a week from now,

04:26not only will we give updates on housing war daily, but also on the stage.

04:29Yeah, I think, I mean, I did not plan on doing wartime economics in 2026. And mortgage rates were

04:37below six and a quarter. There was less volatility. It was the right backdrop. And then

04:42chaos happened. And Sarah and I always joke that before the year started, we said the theme of 2026

04:48could be the show 24 with Jack Bauer and Chloe and all those people because there's drama all the

04:53way. We did not expect it to be this crazy. So definitely my entire presentation has changed to

05:01kind of let's, you know, we, the housing market had a test, right? And there's a lot of things that

05:06are confusing people. Inventory growth is, you know, we're almost a negative bond yields didn't really go

05:12up as high as some people thought or an inflation is running hotter, but you know, the labor market

05:18isn't breaking it. So my job at the gathering is to give it, it kind of a mid-level update

05:23on what's

05:24going on, but how did the housing market react to all these shocks? On a, you know, still a shift

05:31in

05:32the data that's important to call out, but probably not as unusual as this entire year, but something to

05:38call out is the theme of your article on Saturday was, was it all about mortgage rates falling or is

05:43there something else? For example, Easter holiday was last week. Can you give us an update there when

05:48it comes to housing demand snapping back from the previous week? What do people need to know?

05:53You know, in a perfect world, this weekend tracker would look flawlessly beautiful. Like it, it is

06:02exactly what you, you always wanted housing. Seasonal increases in inventory, new listings, data,

06:10weekly pending sales growing and growing on a weekly and year over year basis. If I took it as that

06:17without making any adjustments, it was one of the better weekend trackers we've had. However, one of the

06:25things I tried to do last year is try to teach people that you might be, you might need to

06:31be a little

06:31bit careful with the tracker for two weeks around any holiday, like a general big holiday where people

06:39are traveling and, and the U S isn't working at full force. Now, even today we, we still have

06:47problems. People do not understand when you have Christmas in the middle of the week and new year's

06:51the middle of the week data is not going to look normal. It's basically like a mini COVID. And a

06:57lot

06:57of people didn't understand that housing activity totally slows down toward the end of the year,

07:01but also the holidays could really impact it here. Easter holiday, the previous week, inventory

07:06growth, barely, barely was positive week to week. The new listings data was down noticeably year,

07:13year over year, a weekly pending sales were negative on a week to week and year over year basis. Some

07:19of

07:19that demand is, is, is rate related, but also Easter holiday. Now we have this unbelievable pickup in

07:26inventory, new listings data, weekly sales, year over year growth. Uh, but then again, I think it's

07:32mostly, uh, holiday related. Of course, mortgage rates have come back down from 6.64. We got down to

07:386.29. Uh, probably some of that demand maybe you picked up, but I just kind of chalk these two

07:44week

07:44periods to holidays. And then we just go back to a normal again and see how the data works because

07:50now

07:50rates aren't at 6.64%. They're down to six 30 and we'll see how the housing data reacts to a

07:57better,

07:57a better rate environment. And let's talk about that a little bit more. Two weeks is such a great

08:01call out. Housing inventory is an area that you've been watching. You watch every week in the tracker.

08:05Um, it's still not, you know, given higher mortgage rates, historically, uh, demand goes,

08:12you know, inventory goes up, but not fully what we're seeing. So what do we need to take away for

08:17inventory then? So the housing market shifted mid June of 2025. And part of that is inventory

08:23growth was really good last year. Like one of the most positive stories last year was inventory

08:27growth. At one point we had 33% year over year growth of inventory. And we're just trying to get

08:32back to normal. So when you trying to get back to normal, you have to be a little bit careful

08:36on

08:36these big percentage moves. But by mid June, when the 10 year yield and rates started to fall,

08:42the housing market was shifting. And I always say that it's going to take six to nine months for

08:47people to kind of realize this, but the weekly tracker is designed to teach everyone how it

08:52works, right? How does housing economic works now? The growth rate of inventory, uh, has gone from 33%

08:59last year, now down to 3.28%, uh, even with the, uh, uh, noticeable pickup week to week. And that

09:07is

09:07basically, that's been in here for some time now. So inventory growth, even though it's slow,

09:12it's still at an elevated level to keep price growth in check, where we have another year of

09:19wages out, uh, uh, outpacing home price growth. And that should be the third year in a row that in

09:26itself helps with affordability, right? If home prices were running at five to 6% a year, I'm having

09:32a different conversation than I've had, you know, the, the last few years, but this is going to be

09:36another year where wages outgrow a home price growth. That is better for everyone listening

09:42going out in the future because what we saw in COVID was very unhealthy, just savagely unhealthy.

09:48So even though the inventory growth is slowing down, it's working from an elevated level from

09:542022 levels. Like I always joke around like March of 2022, uh, the savagely unhealthy housing market

10:02back then we only had 240,000 single family homes available for sale at one week. That was the low

10:07point, uh, in history. That's not a functioning housing market. That is a marketplace. Even though

10:12sales were like 2 million higher back then, uh, price growth was way out of control. It kills future

10:18demand. So we see that now, but now it's kind of the reverse, right? It's, it's very rare in history

10:24going back to 1942, that nominal home prices fall nationally. Um, if I take 2007 and 11 out of the

10:31equation that we've only had two years where 1990, we were down 0.7% in 1991, 0.2, but

10:37this is a

10:38healthier housing market, but we have to explain kind of what's going on. Even though the growth

10:43rate is slowing down in inventory, it's working from an elevated level. So the active inventory,

10:47uh, still a positive story, but, uh, that growth is, uh, had been slowing down for some time.

10:52Yeah. A lot of explanation to do there. And, uh, good Logan word coming back there was savagely

10:58unhealthy housing market. The phrase that stuck out to me in the article was when you're like,

11:03I've been disappointed with new listings data. I'm like, I never want Logan to be disappointed

11:07in anything that, that phrase savage is a big word. Logan disappointed in you is not where you

11:13want to be. And that was on new listings data. So expand on that. Cause no one wants to be

11:18in the

11:18seat where Logan's disappointed in them. Yeah. Well, the new listings data, I always think is very

11:22critical. It's also a data line that not a lot of people understand. Um, these are the homes that

11:27come onto the market that don't have, uh, uh, a contract right away. So traditionally speaking

11:34from 2013 to 2019 new listings data, the seasonal peak period of times, which we're about to enter,

11:40we have 80 to a hundred thousand new listings and we have it for weeks and that's very normal.

11:47That's that, that's, that's a normal thing. We have not had a normal new listings year post COVID.

11:53Did it matter if mortgage rates were at 3% or 8% and the new listings, how I look

11:58at it is not

11:59the early part of the year or the end of the year. It's the seasonal part of it because toward

12:03the end

12:04of the year, kind of all new listings data for a long time converges outside of the housing crash

12:09years. And just to give everyone perspective during the housing bubble crash years, like I like to use

12:142009, 10 and 11, uh, new listings data per week was running at 250 to 400,000 for years per

12:21week.

12:22Like if I took the highest new listings in 2022, it was 91,000. And that was like I buyers,

12:29you know,

12:29selling off their, their inventory. Um, I double that and I still don't even get to the low end

12:35of the housing crash years, but I was just hoping that this year would be the year. And maybe I

12:41could

12:41still get what I want that we get above 80,000 and we have a few weeks above 80,000.

12:46And that's just,

12:47since most sellers are home buyers supplies, a function of demand, but so far, you know,

12:52we just quite haven't got that yet, even though new listings data had a very good week, that's

12:58kind of Easter holiday related. That's the bounce back, but I'm hoping, I hope you know, I get what

13:03I want of just a few weeks above 80,000 last year, we got above 80,000, which, which is

13:08something

13:08that was part of the forecast. Same thing here, but I just want to see a little bit of growth,

13:13uh, uh, during the, uh, uh, uh, seasonal peaks. And then I won't be disappointed, Brenna. So it'll

13:19be, it'll be a good thing. I can write, I can take that. Hey, listen, we got a few weeks.

13:23I'll

13:23take it as a victory. Let's get ready for the, uh, uh, 20, 27 season. But, uh, you know, if

13:29housing

13:30was ever authentically breaking, like these kind of doom porn YouTube accounts and TikTok accounts

13:37and X accounts talk about new listings data will go vertical, right? You would see such an explosion

13:42of new listings data. Uh, um, but we just never seen it and we haven't seen it now. This is

13:47going

13:48into year six. So at some point people just got to realize maybe just saying just maybe some people

13:56don't know how housing works. And then some people do. And some people write it every weekend and they

14:02show a lot of charts. And when something is breaking here, new listings data will go vertical

14:08and it'll stay there for some time, not there yet. And we're getting, getting into the seasonal

14:13peak period period soon. So we'll, we'll see if we can get some growth, but right now, just a very

14:18kind of stable inventory year. And when inventory gets almost back to normal, it's very hard to get

14:25the velocity of data to grow as much, right? You know, we used to make fun of these people who

14:29said,

14:30Oh my God, foreclosures are up 700%. It was like from one to four, you know, or something,

14:35you know, so it's, you have to take the percentage increases with somewhat historical context. So

14:40new listings data, nice week, love it. Holiday, uh, bounce back, but I'm really hoping that we get

14:47a little bit more kick, uh, in the next few weeks. I think it was the podcast episode with Clayton

14:52and

14:52Odetta that taught me a very common housing economic term, which is, uh, base effects and the power of

14:57base effects. I had no idea. And I think to your point, context is so important. Yeah. Base effects.

15:03I mean, you could really, if, if, if everybody understood what that was and you really take

15:0890% of the garbage off the internet, cause you know, uh, it's like, you know, for working from

15:13one to four, okay. But when you're working from, uh, 7,500, you know, it's harder. And that's why

15:19the percentage increases. And this is why, uh, or, you know, late last year and early this year,

15:24we're saying the year over year comps are going to be very difficult. Uh, we're going to have a less

15:29year over year growth context is key from what happened last year. And if we see some negative

15:34data, which we, we should see, uh, just take that in context that last year was such a positive year

15:40for inventory growth this year, it's harder to replicate that. And the base effect is wearing

15:45itself off. So we kind of get back to normal. And I, again, I just think there's not a lot

15:50of

15:50people in this country that could talk about housing when it's somewhat looks normal because it's not

15:54sexy to talk about, or you can't generate, you know, these crazy headlines. And now that we're

15:59in 2026, hopefully people could, you know, educated people who read and write and understand things

16:05could see a grifter, a data analyst, entertainer nerd. So you want to stick to the nerdy, uh, analyst

16:14types. And I know the doom porn could get a lot of clicks, but not quite trained yet on base

16:20effects

16:20and how it works. I agree. Well, let's look at the week ahead. Speaking of the nerd tour continuing,

16:27you're at the gathering next week, and there's a handful of opportunities to see Logan from Q and

16:34a opportunities, a live housing wire daily recording, which is probably of great interest

16:39to people listening. You get to see Sarah and Logan kind of like late night kind of show. Like you

16:43have with, um, some really good talk shows out there, Logan and Sarah, and then also an ask me

16:48anything kind of Q and a in the morning. So all of those areas for the people to, what, what

16:52did

16:52you say? Grifter entertainer and turn everyone to an informed person by seeing you in person.

16:57Lord knows what people want me to do, but in any case, a fun, a fun, informative time at the

17:03gathering, a lot of housing executives, a lot of, uh, government officials, a lot of mortgage

17:09executives. You know, it's, it's designed to be the one-stop show for the year to have everyone

17:14kind of come in and, and, and not only network, but also discuss what's going on at the state.

17:19And it's just one of those years where we're just every week, something's different. And my job is

17:23to try to make sense of everything. And, and at the gathering, it's going to be a very unique,

17:27uh, uh, presentation because of what happened with the Iranian conflict and the bond market and oil

17:32inflation and all the nerdy things I love to talk about. And of course, love to do it on stage.

17:37Well, you can find a link to the gathering in the show notes and thank you Logan for letting me

17:41sub

17:42and it's an honor. I can never be Sarah Wheeler, but it's always nice to be able to chat with

17:45you.

17:45It is pleasure having you. And, and for everyone, the next podcast is going to be a solo act. So,

17:51uh, Sarah won't be here and Rebecca's going to try to keep me in line and it's going to be

17:56a lot of fun.

17:57Oh, I love it. I'll be tuning in. Thanks, Logan.

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