00:00If the goal is to reopen and secure the state of foremost, it's not clear to me whether it works
00:07or not.
00:07It depends on the level of assets that we are ready to use and what the United States is ready
00:14to do.
00:15In terms of the blockade, the blockade has been quite successful in terms of preventing Tehran from exporting its oil.
00:25So what we have seen in the data is that since April 13, between April 13 and April 28, that's
00:33the latest data that I have seen,
00:35Iran, the blockade has managed to prevent Iran from exporting 1.16 million barrels of oil per day.
00:43That's close to what Iran used to export in, what Iran export in March.
00:49So the blockade has been very successful in terms of preventing Tehran from exporting its oil.
00:56How long Tehran has until it has to shut down its production?
01:03We know that Tehran has already started doing it gradually.
01:08The data that we have seen is that Iran can extend its onshore storage probably to June.
01:15But if it doesn't want, you know, abrupt shutdown, it needs to gradually bring down its production.
01:27So the pressure on Tehran is quite high.
01:31Whether that will force Tehran to reopen the state of Hormuz, the blockade itself,
01:38I don't think so at least like in one or three months.
01:42One, two, three months.
01:43That's why I think the decision to bring in military, it's a wise decision.
01:48I think it needs to go beyond like, I don't know what exactly they are doing,
01:55but let's say escorting the ships.
01:58It needs to go and take over some of the islands.
02:02It needs to have military operation in the southern coastline of Iran
02:06if they want to reopen and secure the state of Hormuz.
02:09Mm-hmm.
02:12Mm-hmm.
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