- 2 days ago
Matt Harmon from Reception Perception really enjoys Antonio Williams as a prospect.
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00:00Whenever we talk wide receivers, I always want to get our guys to reach out to Matt Harmon.
00:04He's a football writer and analyst for Yahoo.
00:06He also created Reception Perception.
00:09It's a methodology that a lot of people really respect when it comes to evaluating wide receivers.
00:15He's carved out a niche and become really important in the wide receiver discussions that take place.
00:20I wanted to get his thoughts notably on Antonio Williams, who Washington drafted in the third round.
00:25He joins us now on the Rude Guest Hotline.
00:27And Rude, the most reliable heating and air conditioning products in the DMV.
00:31Matt, it is good to have you back on the show, buddy.
00:33How are you?
00:35I'm doing well.
00:36I hope you guys are, too.
00:38Yeah, always good to talk to you.
00:39And definitely, Antonio Williams, really interesting prospect that Washington grabs.
00:43So really excited to talk to you guys about.
00:45So I was interested to get your take.
00:46And then I started to see some of your work come out on him.
00:49And it seems like you're a big fan of the players.
00:52So let's go back to even before the fit with Blau or Washington taking him.
00:55How are you evaluating him in college?
00:58Because I feel like 24 is a very different story than 25 as far as production goes.
01:04Totally.
01:05Yeah, Clemson was kind of a mess in 2025.
01:09Definitely, if you're a fan of that program, got to raise some eyebrows at kind of the way
01:13things are going down there or the way things went last year.
01:16But specifically looking at Williams, even in that 2025 season, I think you see a really,
01:23really quality player who projects well to the NFL in some capacity.
01:28Now, the some capacity there is the kind of key phrase.
01:32Because just to be fully transparent, and I did a breakdown on my YouTube channel about this.
01:38And obviously, this will have some scars for Washington fans.
01:42He does kind of fit into the archetype of receiver that I've maybe over-indexed on in the past.
01:48Jahan Dotson was one of those misses for me.
01:51Kind of a smaller, separation-based slot receiver who doesn't give you a lot of yards after catch ability.
01:59So I do think that's important to note when we have this discussion,
02:02that I have definitely over-indexed on this type of wide receiver in the past.
02:07So throughout the charting process, and really after analyzing the reception-perception data,
02:12you know, I don't want to get like over my skis on a player like this.
02:16But where Washington took him in the third round, I think is a totally viable place for him to land.
02:22Again, I know I'm sure I've excited people by bringing up Jahan Dotson right away in the Antonio Williams breakdown.
02:28But I think there are some differences between a player like Dotson and a player like Antonio Williams.
02:34And one of the key things that stands out with Williams, and Adam Peters actually mentioned this in his post
02:40-draft presser,
02:40I think you saw, again, even in the 2025 season, a real ability for Antonio Williams to beat man coverage,
02:47to separate at all three levels, particularly on downfield routes.
02:52Some of these guys that have failed to translate in this like smaller receiver archetype,
02:57they haven't necessarily been the guys that are reliable separators against man coverage downfield.
03:04Like they can eventually kind of crack open that hole in zone.
03:08But Williams is the guy who really shows the ability to snap off routes against man coverage in the intermediate
03:13and deeper areas, which I think is a pretty good proof of concept.
03:17Plus, 5'11", just under 190 pounds.
03:20He shows a real willingness to mix it up and kind of get dirty in the blocking game.
03:26So I think he's someone that can play in two receiver sets.
03:29This is often something like it's talked about in fantasy circles,
03:32but it really matters when we're talking about NFL players too.
03:35Just how many downs and how many snaps can you contribute to as the league is going through all these
03:40heavy personnel packages?
03:42The guys who have typically gotten pushed out are the slot-only players.
03:46And Williams definitely played almost exclusively from the slot in 2025,
03:50but he's got a little bit more outside reps earlier in his career.
03:53And I think because of that ability to beat man coverage, 75th percentile success rate versus man in reception perception,
04:00I was willing to give him like an early second-round ranking when I came out with my stack rankings
04:06on the site
04:06because I think he can contribute as a flanker in two receiver sets.
04:11So that's what I wanted to get to and what I wanted to ask because it sounds like such a
04:14pejorative, Matt,
04:15when you go, he's just a slot.
04:16You know what I mean?
04:17Like I'm just a radio host.
04:19But that's what I worry about.
04:20I like the player too.
04:21I mean, you know more than I do.
04:22You've forgotten more this morning than I'll ever know.
04:24But for this team, I'm sitting there going,
04:26Oh, look, there's a couple outside receivers who made me take the top off.
04:30Crap.
04:30Okay, I like him, but I'm kind of left wanting.
04:33Talk me through that.
04:35Yeah, I think he probably fits into like a Christian Kirk bucket of player.
04:41And, you know, Kirk was a guy who definitely flirted with playing in two receiver sets previously.
04:46Yeah, it is funny as we've kind of like had this long journey with slot receivers in general.
04:52It went from being like a pejorative term to really kind of after some of those Patriots teams just almost
04:58ran their offenses.
05:00They usually would have like a different type of threat along with like a West Welker.
05:04It was Randy Moss.
05:05It was Julian Edelman.
05:05They had Gronk for all those years.
05:07So they weren't necessarily like always running their offense to a slot-based player.
05:10But that really changed sort of the, hey, it's like the slot receiver, that third guy in 11 personnel is
05:16a starter.
05:18Now we're sort of seeing a lot of these slot-based players, even like a guy like Amon Rossain-Brown,
05:23who obviously kind of with David Blau coming from that Lions offense,
05:28like you kind of think he's bringing over some of those tendencies, some of those principles,
05:33the way this commander's offense is going to feel this year.
05:36Even a guy like Amon Rossain-Brown was like a 44% slot player last year.
05:39Like these guys have to be able to play in these two receiver sets.
05:44And because of that, you have to be a good blocker.
05:46You have to be credible against man coverage.
05:48And I do think that Williams shows the ability to do that,
05:51and particularly like in the contested catch game too.
05:54That's where a lot of these guys do kind of struggle when they're winning in the vertical game.
05:58Like their contested catch ability, it just doesn't really translate like you'd want it to
06:03from the college to pro game.
06:05We'll see about Williams, but I did really like the way he attacked the football
06:08and tracked it and timed it up in the air.
06:11So there's a lot of, I think, indicators for him that he can be like a slot mostly player,
06:17but not a slot only player.
06:19Like if you're a slot only guy, that really does put a limitation on your skill set
06:24and how often you're going to be contributing.
06:26But if you're a slot mostly player, like a St. Brown, you know,
06:29some of these other guys that have come in through the league the last few years,
06:32I think that really opens up your ceiling.
06:35And I do think that there's some indicators in Williams' reception-perception profile
06:38that might point more as a slot mostly than a slot home.
06:42Matt Harmon, reception-perception on Antonio Williams, Grant and Danny here on the fan.
06:47To dive deeper into the transition out of college and kind of what he was running,
06:52a fifth of his routes were screens.
06:54And there was a lot of like crossers, drags, slants, hitches, you know,
06:58the stuff right around the line of scrimmage.
07:00I actually think a lot of that plays very well with David Blau if they put him at the Z
07:05some
07:05and they ask him to do some of those things out of their bunches and their stacks,
07:09as you're talking about, with some of the blocking he'll be able to do maybe
07:12in those roles and their tight splits.
07:14What do you make, just get more into maybe like what you can ask him to do,
07:18what you shouldn't ask him to do from a route standpoint,
07:20and the fit with Blau, if you would?
07:23Yeah, what you're not going to ask a guy like Williams to do is line up on the boundary,
07:28on the line of scrimmage, and go against a lot of press coverage.
07:3243rd percentile success rate versus press coverage, obviously that's below the prospect average.
07:37Not completely hopeless there, but I definitely think that's the weaker point of his game.
07:41Just from a dementia standpoint, he tested well athletically at the NFL scouting combine.
07:46I wouldn't necessarily say some of that, like I think the explosiveness translates
07:50into his route running ability, but I wouldn't say from like a vertical standpoint
07:55there's necessarily a lot of juice there, and again, like we're talking about the vertical
07:58route tree where it's a lot of nines, outs, some of like the deeper stop routes.
08:06That's probably not what you're going to ask him to do, but that's what Terry McLaurin
08:10has been doing for this team for a long time now, and I definitely think Terry's role
08:16is going to expand a little bit to some degree under David Blau, which I do want
08:20to come back to, but at the same time, I think that that's mostly going to, if you
08:24know what Terry's role is going to be, it's going to be that outside on-ball
08:27X receiver, just smoking press man coverage, and because of that, you have a guy in
08:32Williams that I think you can't ask him to run some of those in cuts as the Z
08:36receiver.
08:37Some of the quicker outs as well from these stacked, condensed formations, the bunches
08:42that you mentioned, and that's just going to create a lot of layups in this
08:45offense.
08:45That's something that I think was missing, even in Jaden Daniels' rookie year, when him and
08:50Terry McLaurin just had this unbelievable connection in chemistry on deep outside the
08:54number of targets, you know, other than Zach Ertz, there wasn't a guy necessarily to be
08:59that kind of reliable player from just giving him layups and things like that.
09:04I think this is what Williams is going to do for this offense, like hit your singles,
09:08hit your doubles, stay on base, and occasionally, if we can get him on a deep crosser, a dig
09:14route, a post route, again, some of those more in-breaking routes, he can create a big
09:18play as well.
09:19So not somebody that I think just has to be what I would call like a bunny hop slot receiver.
09:23But I'm so fascinated with this commander's offense this year because I do think maybe
09:29we're not going to see a significant departure, but my theory with Cliff Kingsbury's offense
09:34is always that like it can help your quarterback, again, to use the same phrase, can help your
09:39quarterback get on base and like get started in the NFL.
09:42But I do think you're always going to run into that wall of like, all right, we need
09:45to be more pro style.
09:47We need to run more play action, get under center, and push the ball over the middle of
09:51the field.
09:52And I think Jake Daniels was capable of doing all those things.
09:54And I think even just some of the quotes coming out of like Dan Quinn and when they brought
09:58in David Blau or they promoted him to be the offense coordinator, I think they want
10:02to bring in some of those principles like a Ben Johnson offense, which David Blau grew up
10:07in during his playing days with the Lions.
10:09So I'm fascinated with this team.
10:11I think if they can pull off that change in transition, and Williams will be a big part
10:16of it, McLaurin kind of moving around more of the formation, that will be a part of it.
10:20I think it's often going to feel more dangerous from a dimension standpoint than what we saw
10:24even in Daniels as rookie year.
10:26Matt Harmon with us here on GND.
10:28So I think the 40 time is something we get hung up on way too often when it comes to
10:32receivers.
10:33I've seen so many four or five guys that are excellent deep threats from Mike Evans,
10:36to Devontae Adams, to a million guys in between, Carnell Tate in this year's draft.
10:40So I know Williams ran that 4-4 and change, but I don't have better terminology here, Matt.
10:46I'd love for you to educate me on this.
10:47It doesn't feel like he plays that fast.
10:50It doesn't feel like he's leaving guys in his wake, right?
10:53As he's that much of a burner, it's maybe quicker and more elusive than it is fast,
10:57hence kind of this slot plus sort of moniker.
11:00Speak to that if you would.
11:02Yeah, no, I did a whole breakdown on this actually when Carnell Tate ran that 40-yard dash time,
11:07and I just looked at all of the receivers that had 250 or more yards on 20-plus air-yard
11:16throws last year.
11:17There were 21 players.
11:20That average 40 time for those guys was 4-4-6.
11:25If you look at just outside receivers, so removed slot-based players, guys who played on the outside,
11:31at least 63% of their snaps last year, 4-4-9 is the average 40 time.
11:37And you mentioned some of the players, like Jackson Simpson-Jigman,
11:40does it ever feel like he's really running that fast?
11:43Like, no, he's more of a smooth, gliding-type receiver.
11:47Sam Darnold talked about this when they first got together in Seattle last year.
11:51They felt like he ran his routes while running, like wearing skates.
11:55You know, like he almost does have this kind of skating style to his route running,
11:59but it's never like he's really going that fast.
12:01But he's so good with the subtleties of his route running.
12:05I don't think there was a receiver that was better at telling you one thing,
12:10like showing you one thing, and lying to you and then doing another last year.
12:14And I'm talking about, especially in the intermediate area, like dig routes and out routes,
12:19he was constantly using his head to sell an out route and then snap it inside,
12:25or vice versa on an out cut.
12:27And I think that that's something that Williams shows the potential to do.
12:31And, again, we're not talking about nine routes on the boundary, you know,
12:35your classic X receiver stuff, even though JSN definitely played more on the outside
12:39last year than he ever had previously.
12:42And he had 575 yards on 20-plus area yard throws last year, the most in the NFL.
12:48He was Offensive Player of the Year, and it's because he was so dominant on those downfield routes,
12:54which includes some of the things that we're talking about here.
12:56And I do think that Williams shows that ability to tell you one thing and then do another.
13:01That's really what route running and creating separation is.
13:04And, you know, it's one thing to get, like, that insanely cool, you know, contested catch type coverage win
13:11on the outside, you know, the outside the number of targets, the deep stuff.
13:15But it's a lot more efficient, a lot easier for your quarterback when there's just a bigger window to throw
13:22into.
13:22And I think Williams, like, specifically against man coverage, is one of those players who helps create those windows.
13:27And outside of Terry McLaurin, you know, there's just, like, although Washington's depth chart right now,
13:33there's just not a lot of, like, there's just no one else who really can do that.
13:36Yeah, that's the fear for me, because I think they've done a lot to help Jaden Daniels.
13:39I think we over-talk a little bit about needing to do more at receiver,
13:43although that's not to say they couldn't stand to get a lot better.
13:46They don't have a ton there.
13:47But you just can't get stars everywhere, and they did sign a tight end, and they do have a good
13:51offensive line,
13:52and they did dramatically upgrade their defense, and they do have a $30 million wideout and a top 75 pick
13:58with him.
13:59So, like, there's only so many things generally you could do when I took a guy at number two to
14:02elevate all those people anyway.
14:04But that said, I want to talk about some of the others here.
14:07Luke McCaffrey was drafted in the third round, top 100.
14:11Jalen Lane, who had two punt return touchdowns last year, played in the slot, played on the outside a little
14:15bit.
14:16The fourth rounder out of Virginia Tech.
14:18They've got Traylon Burks, the former first-round pick, as well.
14:21I mean, what do you make, what do your metrics make of some of those guys?
14:25Right, and, like, they've signed De'Ami Brown, an old friend they brought back, Van Jefferson, you know, as well.
14:33Like, I think they've got a lot of different body types and potential different roles on the roster, too.
14:38Like, I do think Jefferson and De'Ami Brown are some more of your, like, sacrificial receivers, you know, where
14:45they can almost kind of take Terry McLaurin off ball and take him and move.
14:51Again, that's what I want to see from McLaurin this year is just moving around a little bit more.
14:55His primary, his base will be as that ex-receiver running the vertical route for you.
15:00But, and this doesn't mean that Terry McLaurin is going to get 170 targets in a season, but when David
15:05Law comes out and says, like, this offense is going to be about getting Terry McLaurin 10 targets a game
15:09or whatever, I think that's less about, like, I'm promising you guys 170 targets if he plays all 17 games.
15:15And more about, like, we're going to move this guy around and do more than the previous offense did to
15:19really, and even offenses before that, to really maximize his ability to do more than just run that vertical route
15:26tree.
15:26So, I think guys like Jefferson and Brown maybe could be part of that, like, sacrificial type receiver on the
15:30outside.
15:31All the rest of those guys, Burks, Lane, McCaffrey, they're guys who I think probably do need to play some
15:38slot receiver, too.
15:40But I would say that what I've seen out of McCaffrey so far is probably a slot-only player.
15:44I thought he was a bit of an aggressive draft pick where he went in the top 100.
15:49I saw him more as a, you know, fourth rounder, maybe early fifth rounder.
15:53So, he goes about around, maybe around and a half earlier than I would have taken him.
15:57And he's shown some flashes at times of an ability to sink his hips and create separation.
16:03But this hasn't really been able to string a lot of momentum together.
16:06I would totally give up there, but also can't really for sure lock him into an impact role.
16:11I think Lane is more, again, what he's shown so far is like a design-touches type player.
16:16Someone you could definitely sprinkle in, but I think the route running for him has definitely still got a ways
16:21to go.
16:22Burks, you know, he's definitely a guy who I was lower than consensus on when he came into the league
16:28because I was worried that a team would see him.
16:30Big receiver.
16:32He's our ex.
16:33And he just never, he never showed any real ability to beat press man coverage in college.
16:37So, he's one of these four separation receivers that I've charted over the last few draft classes
16:43that the biggest, like the way you can get a hit out of that player is you need to kick
16:48him into the slot.
16:49And the Tennessee Titans played him as their ex-receiver kind of exhausted my ears.
16:53And he's had injuries too, you know, stuff like getting in shape, all that sort of thing.
16:58So, there's a lot going on there beyond just what I think was a bit of a misapplication of his
17:03skill set.
17:04And I do think there's still a way for him to contribute.
17:07He flashed a little bit, so I wouldn't totally give up on him.
17:10But he would be kind of a project as a big slot if he's ever going to contribute in a
17:15high-volume role.
17:16So, I think that Williams just does stand out in terms of, like, the refinement of his game
17:22and the reliability of his game relative to those guys.
17:24But I do think they have different body types to kind of say, like, all right, are we stronger in
17:28the slot?
17:29Are we stronger in the outside?
17:30And throw those guys together.
17:32Really, I think it will highlight Okonkwo at tight end and the two receivers, Williams and McLaurin.
17:37And, of course, like, there's the Brandon Ayoub thing kind of hanging over this team as well,
17:41which we can talk about if you guys want to.
17:42But, yeah, a lot going on there in terms of this receiver room.
17:46I want to sneak in quick.
17:46You mentioned Okonkwo.
17:47How does he fit in?
17:48I always felt like he was underutilized in Tennessee.
17:51What can he bring that might complement or they might have to kind of share some of the same spaces
17:56with he and Williams?
17:58Yeah, I think it's something that, again, to go back to this, like, idea of this being more of a
18:01Ben Johnson-based offense,
18:03one of the things they did really well early on in Sam Laporta's career,
18:07because Laporta, even though he's like an Iowa tight end and, you know, it's like, oh, he's a tough guy,
18:12everything like that,
18:13he's not necessarily the biggest tight end and he's not the best blocker in line.
18:18But they did a lot to kind of almost inverse the roles of Amon Rao St. Brown as, I think,
18:25he's bigger than you think he is and he's more powerful as a blocker than you think he is.
18:29So, like, almost have him handle the blocking duties and have Sam Laporta be the detached off-ball player
18:35to be more of a movement blocker, slice across the formation, open up lanes on the backside of runs.
18:41I kind of think that they can do a little bit of that with Williams as the, you know, slot
18:47receiver
18:48doing a little bit more of the dirty work of the blocking and then Okonkwo kind of slicing across the
18:52formation
18:52as a movement blocker because they have John Bates as a true in-line guy, too.
18:57That's going to help you in 12 personnel.
18:58So, I think kind of using those guys interchangeably, which we've seen under a Ben Johnson offense previously,
19:04I think that's the key to getting the best out of Okonkwo and allowing him to be a full-time
19:08player,
19:09not a guy who's, like, on the field for 54% of the staffs, which would be a disappointment
19:12relative to the contract that they gave him because, obviously, he's a really intriguing receiver
19:17and someone, I think, can make a lot of big plays in this offense.
19:20Matt, love your work. You do such a good job. Thank you for the insight.
19:23We appreciate you joining us.
19:25No doubt. I appreciate you guys for having me, as always, and look forward to the next time we do
19:28it.
19:28Sounds good, buddy.
19:29Absolutely. Matt Harmon of Yahoo.
19:31And when smart guys like him feel really good about what Williams could buy,
19:35makes me feel better. And it's not like I didn't like it to begin with.
19:38He just wasn't on my radar. But the further we get away from the pick,
19:42the more you hear, the more positive and hopeful I am.
19:45Starting to see what they see. My only cautionary tale, right?
19:48Next time we draft a 6'4", 6'3 wide receiver from TCU with foot problems,
19:53I'll think of Josh Doxson. He mentioned the name.
19:56The comparison to me is Jahan Doxson, not to confuse the two.
19:59But that's my, here's your worst case versus the best case.
20:02But again, I like the player. I'm not trying to put that evil on him at this stage,
20:05but there's always a range of possibility.
20:07Who do we think is going to be the number two receiving option behind Terry McLaurin this season?
20:11We'll get into that.
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