00:00Tobias, always good to have you with us. I mean, Japanese officials have been on a tear just
00:04traveling across Asia, Vietnam, Australia. How significant are these trips in this geopolitical
00:10environment? Clearly, they are using them as a way to articulate, you know, I think we heard
00:19Takahichi in Vietnam talking about resilience, you know, resilience being the key theme of her new
00:24free and open Indo-Pacific vision. So clearly, I think they see this as a real opportunity. Of
00:29course, we're also seeing Defense Minister Koizumi in Southeast Asian countries. We're seeing
00:33just we're seeing Foreign Minister Motegi in Africa. Just there's a lot of focus on the global
00:38South, I think, at the moment, as it's buffeted by the impact of the Hormuz crisis.
00:44When it comes to the Japan-Australian relationship, how critical is it, especially given the ties
00:49when it comes to defense and also critical minerals? I think you're going to and we're
00:56going to hear this really, I think, today as these meetings get underway. I mean, really,
01:00it increasingly feels like Australia, the Japan-Australian relationship, I mean, that is Japan's
01:05second most important bilateral relationship after its relationship with the United States.
01:08And of course, you know, Australia, you know, sees Japan as an important partner in its own right.
01:13Of course, they have this landmark defense, this arms deal that they've made that they're going to
01:17finally formalize. But also, you know, they're important trade partners, they're partners in the CPTPP,
01:24they're important energy partners, and they're going to become closer partners on
01:28economic security. I mean, clearly across the board, this is just a relationship.
01:32Japan doesn't really have a whole lot that can match the relationship that has really developed
01:36with Australia, no.
01:39I found interesting the foreign policy speech when it comes to the deepening ties in the
01:44Indo-Pacific. And that's obviously something that Australia is prioritizing as well. And a lot of
01:49this is sort of an unspoken counter to the influence of Beijing, right? What do you think
01:54a more assertive Japan in the Indo-Pacific looks like, particularly in terms of potentially
02:01being more militarily assertive as well?
02:05Well, as you suggest, I mean, the biggest difference, because of course, you know, we've
02:09seen Japan active in the region and really trying to play a leadership role, you know, economically
02:13for quite some time. And so in that sense, you know, we're not really seeing a departure.
02:17But the biggest departure now is, of course, that the Japanese government has charting out
02:22a new course on arms exports and using that to facilitate defense cooperation with partners,
02:28particularly in the region. And that is new, and it's going to develop, and they're really
02:32going to put a lot of energy and a lot of money into making that happen. And so that really
02:35is
02:35the biggest difference, you know, seeing, you know, the announcements of, you know, official
02:39security assistance agreements, you know, the Philippines, you know, with Defense Minister
02:44Koizumi in the Philippines and in Indonesia, a big part of that is developing markets for
02:49Japan's arms exports. So that really is, I think, the biggest difference going forward,
02:53that Japan is going to be playing this role as a provider of defense equipment, as a stable
03:00friend to countries in the region that want to strengthen their own capabilities, you know,
03:04with many partners who have their own territorial issues with China as well. So, I mean, this is a new
03:09part of Japan's identity in the region. But Japan, of course, has wanted to play a leadership role
03:13in the region for quite some time.
03:16We've got the defense minister in Indonesia and the Philippines as well with more of these talks.
03:21How much of an impact do you think does this new defense weapons strategy from Japan change the
03:28kind of Western defense industrial complex, which we know is under increasing strain with,
03:33you know, multiple, more complex and expensive wars?
03:38You know, it's going to take time. You know, this is, you know, Japan has talked about wanting to build
03:43up the defense industry for a long time. You know, really only now is coming around to dramatically
03:48increasing its ability to export, which I think is a big part of increasing its defense industrial base.
03:53So, I mean, this is, of course, a big step in the right direction. But this is not something that's
03:57going to happen overnight. There's a lot of work to do to make sure, one, that Japan has the ability
04:02to produce in peacetime. But I think the thing that they're most concerned about is
04:05if Japan were to find itself in some sort of protracted conflict, being able to produce under
04:10those conditions and, you know, trying to learn from the circumstances, for example, that Ukraine
04:14has faced over the last few years. This is very explicitly a part of Tokyo's thinking.
04:18You know, it's the long-term production under strain situation rather than just producing in peacetime.
04:24And I think that really is front of mind as far as Tokyo is concerned.
04:29And Tobias, to your earlier point about Japan taking a stronger leadership role in the region,
04:33how will that sit with Beijing? We know that Japanese officials are also having these
04:38high-profile visits to China as well at the same time.
04:44Yeah, this is interesting to watch because, of course, you know, we do have this deep freeze
04:48between Tokyo and Beijing. And at the official level, not really seeing much thought. There was this
04:53visit this week by one of the prime minister's allies in the LDP. It's not clear if there were
04:59any official meetings. It looks like it was just an industrial visit. There's going to be a business
05:06delegation next month. So there might be signs, you know, of a possible breakthrough. I mean,
05:11it's really too early to say. I mean, in general, though, I mean, this pattern of Japan really trying
05:16to strengthen the ability of countries throughout the region to defend their independence and their
05:20sovereignty and their territory. This is not a new idea for Japan, but I think they are really
05:25putting a lot more, I guess you could say, muscle behind it. You know, this is not just,
05:30you know, we're going to do some passive capacity building, giving some old Coast Guard ships. I mean,
05:34they really see this now as a new vocation for Japan and the region. I'm not sure what China can
05:41necessarily do to stop that, but it just shows you that the stakes of competition between Japan and
05:46China in the region, you know, they're just being kicked up another notch. I mean, this is just
05:50another aspect of a competition that's been going on for some time now.
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